Indonesian 🇮🇩 General Election 14th February 2024

[Logical]

Updated quick counts

Litbang Kompas (68% reporting)
Prabowo   59.2
Anies         24.4
Ganjar       16.4

Charta Politika (67% reporting)
Prabowo   57.6
Anies         26
Ganjar       16.4

Indikator (62% reporting)
Prabowo   58
Anies         25.5
Ganjar       16.5

LSI (61% reporting)
Prabowo   57
Anies         25.7
Ganjar       17.3

Poltracking (66.5% reporting)
Prabowo   59.6
Anies         23.5
Ganjar       16.9

The counts are converging. Prabowo will win with 56-60% of the vote.

Is he going to be that high?  Is this not mostly about the Java results?  And in the Java quick counts it is not clear he is that high

It will go down somewhat but there are still pockets of Prabowo support in Papua, Sulawesi and Kalimantan that have not reported yet.

[Logical]

Wait, so Pranowo is running behind the PDI legislative vote?  I guess there were some PDI tactical voting for Baswedan?

On the contrary. Many people are voting for Prabowo as president and PDIP in the legislative.
Some reasons why:
1. Provide strong opposition to Prabowo's authoritarian tendencies
2. Ganjar is a mediocre candidate who was unable to define himself as pro or anti Jokowi. Prabowo successfully portrayed himself as Jokowi's successor but voters remained loyal to PDIP in the legislature because Jokowi is still a member of PDIP.
3. Better candidate quality. PDIP candidates for the legislature tend to be former governors or mayors and influential local power brokers (think INC) . Gerindra is a personalistic party based on Prabowo's figure alone. As a result their candidates have smaller personal votes then PDIP candidates.
4. PDIP have all but given up winning the presidential race a couple weeks ago and focused their energy on the legislative elections.

[Logical]

Legislative quick counts

Litbang Kompas (17% reporting)
PDIP           18.6
Golkar        13.6
PKB            13.5
Gerindra    13.5
NasDem     8.4
Demokrat   7.9
PKS             7.5
PAN             6.9
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.5 
PSI               2.3
Perindo       1.3
All others below 1%

Charta Politika (15% reporting)
PDIP           18.3
Gerindra    14.0
Golkar        13.3
PKB            11.9
PKS             8.6
NasDem     7.9
Demokrat   7.3
PAN             6.4
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.9
PSI               2.5
Perindo       1.7
Gelora         1.3
All others below 1%

Indikator (9% reporting)
PDIP           16.8
Golkar        16
Gerindra    13.7
PKB            10.5
NasDem     10.1
PKS             8.2
Demokrat   6.8
PAN             6.3
PPP             4.0
-------4% Threshold--------
PSI               2.5
Perindo       1.4
All others below 1%

LSI (7% reporting)
PDIP           19.7
Golkar        14.3
Gerindra    11.8
PKB             9.6
NasDem     9.5
Demokrat   8.3
PKS             7.1
PAN             6.8
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.0
PSI               2.5
Gelora         1.4
Perindo       1.2
All others below 1%

Poltracking (8% reporting)
PDIP           21.7
Golkar        15.5
PKB            12.4
Gerindra    12.3
Demokrat   7.9
NasDem     7.8
PKS             6.5
PAN             5.7
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.1
PSI               2.2
Perindo       1.3
All others below 1%

[Logical]

Official results page is finally up.
https://pemilu2024.kpu.go.id/

5.6% reporting
Prabowo   57.8
Anies         21.9
Ganjar       20.4

[Logical]

Anies is leading in Aceh and West Sumatra, neck and neck with Prabowo in Jakarta. This is not surprising as those two provinces are the most conservative and islamic in the nation. He also has some goodwill left in Jakarta.

What is shocking to me is collapse of PDIP vote in its strongholds. Bali has voted for the PDIP candidate in every election since 2004. Ganjar is 20 points behind. In central Java where Ganjar was governor for 10 years, he is 15 points behind.

[Logical]

Updated presidential quick counts

Litbang Kompas (83% reporting)
Prabowo   58.7
Anies         24.4
Ganjar       16.4

Charta Politika (85% reporting)
Prabowo   57.7
Anies         25.7
Ganjar       16.6

Indikator (84% reporting)
Prabowo   57.9
Anies         25.6
Ganjar       16.5

LSI (75% reporting)
Prabowo   57.3
Anies         25.4
Ganjar       17.3

Poltracking (85% reporting)
Prabowo   59.2
Anies         24.4
Ganjar       16.4

[Logical]

Updated legislative quick counts

Litbang Kompas (35% reporting)
PDIP          17.7
Gerindra    14.0
Golkar        13.8
PKB            12.4
NasDem     8.7
PKS             7.9
Demokrat   7.7
PAN             7.0
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.8
PSI               2.7
Perindo       1.2
All others below 1%

Charta Politika (39% reporting)
PDIP          17.4
Gerindra    13.9
Golkar        13.3
PKB            11.5
PKS             9.5
NasDem     8.4
Demokrat   7.1
PAN             6.7
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.9
PSI               2.9
Perindo       1.4
Gelora         1.0
All others below 1%

Indikator (28% reporting)
PDIP           16.0
Golkar        14.7
Gerindra    13.6
PKB            10.7
NasDem     9.5
PKS             8.1
Demokrat   7.7
PAN             6.8
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.8
PSI               3.0
Perindo       1.7
Gelora         1.0
All others below 1%

LSI (17% reporting)
PDIP          17.6
Golkar        15.4
Gerindra     11.8
PKB             10.3
NasDem     8.9
Demokrat   8.7
PKS             7.0
PAN             6.5
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.6
PSI               2.8
Gelora         1.8
Perindo       1.5
All others below 1%

Poltracking (27% reporting)
PDIP           19.1
Golkar        16.5
Gerindra    13.2
PKB            11.5
NasDem     8.0
Demokrat   7.2
PKS             7.0
PAN             6.6
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.6
PSI               2.6
Perindo       1.2
All others below 1%

PDIP will successfully retain their place as largest party. Gerindra underperformed while Golkar overperforms. Name recognition advantage of Golkar candidates is probably decisive here. Parties backing Anies; PKB, NasDem, PKS, finished strongly. PPP might still pass the threshold, but PSI and Perindo are definitely out.

[Logical]

Official results

13.6% of voting booths reporting
Prabowo   56.6
Anies         23.8
Ganjar       19.6

https://pemilu2024.kpu.go.id/

[jaichind]

I assume Aceh's strong support for Baswedan is related to the Aceh Ismalic insurgency back a few decades ago ?

[Logical]

Prabowo's victory speech was conciliatory. He promised to be a president for all Indonesians and thanked Jokowi graciously. His supporters also chanted Jokowi's name many times during his speech. It's clear who really won here and it's not Prabowo. His VP Gibran, the youngest ever Indonesian VP, promised to be a voice for youth of Indonesia. If you described this scene to an Indonesian 5 years ago they would've called you insane.

[Logical]

I assume Aceh's strong support for Baswedan is related to the Aceh Ismalic insurgency back a few decades ago ?

Aceh is just different. It's a province filled with extremely fanatical and conservative Muslims who think that they are Arabs. Anies is of Arab descent and is the perfect fit for them.

[jaichind]

In official results Subianto's vote share in Java and non-Java seems identical at a bit over 56%.  It seems that is the vote share he is headed for.

[Joseph Cao]

I had some inkling of the presidential going this way from media reports a few weeks ago but impressive nevertheless.

Legislative results seem about status quo so far? I suppose we will have to wait for results beyond the quick counts but it doesn't seem as though there will be substantial shifts.

[Logical]

Updated legislative quick counts

Litbang Kompas (61% reporting)
PDIP          17.3
Golkar        14.6
Gerindra    13.7
PKB            11.5
NasDem     9.4
PKS             8.3
Demokrat   7.3
PAN             7.0
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.7
PSI               2.7
Perindo       1.2
All others below 1%

Charta Politika (68% reporting)
PDIP          16.4
Golkar        13.8
Gerindra    13.4
PKB            11.5
PKS             9.6
NasDem     8.8
Demokrat   7.4
PAN             7.0
PPP             4.0
-------4% Threshold--------
PSI               2.9
Perindo       1.4
Gelora         1.0
All others below 1%

Indikator (74% reporting)
PDIP           16.3
Golkar        14.9
Gerindra    13.5
PKB            10.5
NasDem     9.4
PKS             8.2
Demokrat   7.7
PAN             7.2
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.5
PSI               3.0
Perindo       1.4
All others below 1%

LSI (61% reporting)
PDIP           16.9
Golkar        15.0
Gerindra     13.0
PKB             10.7
NasDem     8.8
PKS             8.2
Demokrat   7.6
PAN             6.8
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.7
PSI               2.9
Perindo       1.4
Gelora         1.1
All others below 1%

Poltracking (67% reporting)
PDIP           17.7
Golkar        15.4
Gerindra    13.2
PKB            11.9
NasDem     8.5
PKS             7.7
Demokrat   7.2
PAN             6.7
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.6
PSI               2.8
Perindo       1.3
All others below 1%

Final update for today. PDIP goes down a bit but stays ahead of Golkar. The order of parties appears to be final. Estimating the number of seats won is difficult but at this point the only party likely to make significant seat gains is Golkar.

[Logical]

In official results Subianto's vote share in Java and non-Java seems identical at a bit over 56%.  It seems that is the vote share he is headed for.

I think it'll finish at 57-58%. Stronger than Jokowi's performance in 2019 but weaker than SBY's reelection victory in 2009.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

so it seems like more of a win for PDI-P than Golkar, considering even their President-elect had to lean into that support base hard, if my reading of this is correct?

[Oryxslayer]

so it seems like more of a win for PDI-P than Golkar, considering even their President-elect had to lean into that support base hard, if my reading of this is correct?

Given the cooperative/consensus nature if the Indonesian legislature, how much any one party can be said to have won is up for debate. PDi-P, Golkar, and Gerinda, among numerous others, were all part of the government last time and their positions have not appeared to have shifted. Jokowi appears to be the only big winner when we talk about indirect beneficiaries.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Prabowo's victory speech was conciliatory. He promised to be a president for all Indonesians and thanked Jokowi graciously. His supporters also chanted Jokowi's name many times during his speech. It's clear who really won here and it's not Prabowo. His VP Gibran, the youngest ever Indonesian VP, promised to be a voice for youth of Indonesia. If you described this scene to an Indonesian 5 years ago they would've called you insane.

Reality is stranger than fiction.

[Logical]

Official results

42.5% of voting booths reporting
Prabowo   56.4
Anies         24.6
Ganjar       19.0

https://pemilu2024.kpu.go.id/

Most of Papua where Prabowo is winning over 65% of the vote have not reported yet.

[Logical]

In 2019 Suharto's family tried to return to politics. They created a new party called Berkaya Party with an electoral symbol resembling Golkar.

Golkar party logo


Golkar protested their symbol but the electoral commission ruled that their logo was legal. This caused some confusion among low information voters.
The 2% Berkarya got in the 2019 legislative election was a surprise because the party never polled above 1% during the campaign. It was theorized that a majority of the votes they got was the result of a confusion between their party symbol and Golkar's.
This year Berkarya did not run and Golkar gained 2%. These two things are probably connected.

[Logical]

Kompas exit poll

No gender voting gap in Indonesia.
Young voters won the election for Prabowo.
The wealthier and more educated you are the more likely you are to vote for Anies.
Anies narrowly ahead among modernist Muslims but Prabowo won the traditionalist Muslim vote by a landslide.
Prabowo and Ganjar split the non Muslim vote 55-45 in favor of Prabowo. Anies got less than 2% in this demographic.
It's worth remembering that in 2019 only 3% of non Muslims voted for Prabowo after an extremely polarizing campaign. Indonesian voters are remarkably forgiving.

[Logical]

More exit poll data

Massive split ticket ticket voting from PDIP, PKB, NasDem and PPP voters for Prabowo.

Party voter movement from 2019
PDIP
 
Gerindra

Golkar

PKB

NasDem

PKS

Demokrat

PAN

PPP


Lots of churn as always as party loyalty is pretty weak. Still we can observe a notable PDIP -> Gerindra shift as well as the incredibly resilient PKS vote.

[Logical]

Maps of results so far (60% reported). Nothing yet from most of Highlands Papua.