Indonesian 🇮🇩 General Election 14th February 2024

[Logical]

2024 will be a mega election year for Indonesia. The fourth most populous country will hold an election for president, parliament and regional legislatures on 14th February 2024. Later in November there will be local elections to elect the heads of every single province, city and district.

The primary sociopolitical divide in Indonesia is religion. 85% of the population is Muslim and they form the majority in almost every island. There are several streams of belief within Indonesian Islam, scholars usually classify them as either traditionalists or modernists. While not entirely accurate, we will go with that as the finer intricacies of Indonesian Islam are well beyond the scope of this thread.

Islam spread mostly peacefully in Indonesia through trade and missionary work of the Wali Songo, nine aristocrats revered as saints until today. As a result, the form of Islam practiced in Indonesia has always been less strict and highly syncretic with local traditions. Modernism began as a movement advocating reform and orthodoxy, but over time the influence of Gulf oil money and radical clerics and made it firmly conservative and rather critical of pluralism. The largest organization of the reformists is the Muhammadiyah Society with around 40 million members. Smaller and more hardline organizations exist but they are suppressed by the government. The reformist tendency is strongest among the Sundanese, Bugis and other Muslims of the outer islands.

Traditionalists practice a more moderate form of Islam called "Islam Nusantara" that incorporates local pre Islamic customs with Islam. It is syncretic, pluralistic, highly variable from region to region. Traditionalism is inseparable from the influential Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) organization. NU has about 90 million members and adherents. NU itself has liberal, moderate and conservative wings with the moderate faction currently in charge. The Javanese are the strongest proponents of traditionalism, with East Java being the center of traditionalist education.


Percentage of Muslims by districts

The main Christian peoples are the Batak and Nias of North Sumatra, the Dayak tribes of interior Kalimantan, the Toraja and Minahasa of Sulawesi, the peoples of East Nusa Tenggara, the Chinese who are spread across major cities, and the native Papuans. The Hindu population lives mostly in Bali, and the small number of Buddhists/Confucians are usually Chinese. Religious minorities are not a uniform voting bloc, there is a marked difference between the voting patterns of minorities with higher socioeconomic status and those with lower status which we will get into later. However, when a candidate is seen as a threat to the safety and interest of minority groups, they are capable of coalescing en masse against said candidate as seen in 2019.
 
Percentage of Protestants by district

Percentage of Catholics by district

A brief history of reformation era Indonesian politics
The Asian financial crisis and the instability that followed led to the fall of Suharto's New Order regime. His Vice President, Habibie, served as a transitional president until the 1999 legislative election. He lifted many restrictions of the dictatorship, permitted a referendum in East Timor and began long delayed Constitutional reforms. The 1999 election was a highly competitive election, the PDIP of reformation leader, Megawati became the largest party but failed to secure enough seats to get her elected in the indirect presidential elections. The military stacked parliament elected the blind liberal NU cleric Abdurrahman Wahid of PKB, popularly known as Gus Dur, president and made Megawati Vice President as a consolation to prevent her supporters from rioting.

Gus Dur was a reconciliatiory president who began peace talks with rebel movements and lifted discriminatory policies on Chinese Indonesians. But poor economic conditions and his ability to alienate almost everyone in his shaky political coalition led to his impeachment in 2001. Megawati, daughter of the first president Sukarno, finally became president. She was never popular during most of her presidency but the democratic foundations of Indonesia was solidified and strengthened at the same time.

The 2004 presidential election was the first ever direct presidential election in Indonesia. Former cabinet minister General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) defeated Megawati 60-40 in the second round. During SBY's presidency, the economic situation was stabilized and Indonesia managed to avoid the worst effects of Great Recession. He won reelection in 2009 even more decisively against Megawati and his former vice president Jusuf Kalla (JK) of Golkar. His second term is marred by profligate corruption scandals of his Democratic Party which contributed to their dismal performance of in the 2014 legislative elections.

The Jokowi era
Jokowi is often compared to Obama in international media which is not an unfair comparison. He began his political career as mayor for his hometown of Solo in Central Java. His good and highly visible work there brought him to national attention, where he was selected by PDIP as its candidate for Jakarta governor in 2012. He defeated the incumbent governor 53-47 in a fierce run off campaign. He did not have the chance to govern for long as he was handpicked by Megawati as PDIP presidential candidate in 2014 after poor polling numbers for her own candidacy. He was seen as a clean break from the old political dynasties and former New Order cronies. His opponent was Suharto's son in law, Prabowo, who ran as an ultra nationalist. He selected former VP JK as his VP candidate and defeated Prabowo 53-47. Prabowo refused to concede and slinked away quietly.

Jokowi's early presidency was challenging, as his coalition had no majority in parliament. Much of his developmentalist agenda was blocked or stalled. After a lot of arm twisting and legal maneuvers pro Jokowi factions were installed within several opposition parties and the government finally had a majority. But then, Ahok, the Chinese Christian governor of Jakarta was accused of blasphemy and the following protests organized by hardline islamist groups were the largest demonstrations since the student protests that brought down Suharto. Ahok lost the governor election to former education minister Anies in the most charged and polarized Indonesian election to date. He was then sacrificed by the government and sentenced sentenced to jail in order to calm down the masses.

Prabowo, despite being a Muslim in name only and having an LGBT son, ran once more for president as an aggrieved islamist trying to the ride the wave of discontent. Jokowi chose former Indonesian Council of Ulamas leader Maaruf Amin as VP to secure his flank and defeated Prabowo again 55-45 in an election polarized by religion. Prabowo made a show of rejecting the results once again before reconciling with Jokowi and being appointed defence minister in the new government.

Jokowi's second term secured his place as the most transformative president since the New Order. With only token opposition left in parliament, he pushed through major reforms, infrastructure projects and rewrote labor and colonial era criminal law. The crowning enterprise of his projects is the relocation of the capital from sinking Jakarta to a newly built city in East Kalimantan called Nusantara (IKN). During his second term he is critized for being less transparent, more authoritarian, and using his connections to secure mayorships for his children and in laws.

A third term for Jokowi was briefly floated before it was put down by the political elite. With approval ratings north of 70% throughout his second term, it is clear that he is most popular Indonesian politician and that anyone he favors has a very good chance of being the next president.

The 2024 Presidential Election
There are three candidates for the presidency this time :
1. Prabowo Subianto is a former general, Suharto's son in law and the incumbent defense minister. Famed for his feats as a commando in East Timor and Papua (where there are credible accusations of severe human rights abuses against him), he married Suharto's daughter in 1983 in an unhappy political marriage. He was promoted to General and was a member of Suharto's inner circle. He is accused of being involved in the forced disappearance of 13 democratic activists between 1997 and 1998. Politically he is known for being a chameleon, in 2009 as Megawati's VP candidate he portrayed himself as a loyal soldier, in 2014 he sold himself as an ultranationalist who will save Indonesia from collapse, in 2019 he was the voice of angry islamists. This year he has reinvented himself once more as Jokowi's successor and the youth candidate.
In order to gain credibility on those two fronts, he has selected Jokowi's eldest son, 36 year old mayor of Solo, Gibran Rakabuming, as his VP candidate. His nomination is very controversial as the law states the candidates for the Presidency has to be at least 40 years old. A convulted decision from the Constitutional Court, where the Chief Justice is Gibran's uncle, created a carve out for elected regional heads to bypass the age requirement. This paved the way for Gibran's selection as VP candidate the very next week. The general population has interpreted this as a clear sign of Jokowi's unofficial endorsement for Prabowo's candidacy. Gibran's performance as mayor of Solo is well regarded but much of his achievements is the fruit of lavish investments the central government has given Solo as Jokowi's beloved hometown.

2. Anies Baswedan is an academic, former education minister and Governor of Jakarta from 2017-2022. Another political chameleon, he began his career as a reform minded liberal islamist academic. He rose to national attention when he was appointed the official spokesman for Jokowi's 2014 presidential campaign and was rewarded with the position of minister of education for his role. He had a falling out with Jokowi and was dismissed from the cabinet in 2016. Chosen as the opposition candidate for Jakarta Governor, he was expected to lose until the blasphemy case of Ahok happened. Harnessing the wave of Islamic backlash, he won the governorship in the second round 58-42. His governorship was largely seen as unremarkable as he scrapped many controversial programs of past governors in an attempt to keep his image clean for his presidential run. This year he is running as the change candidate and is backed by islamist parties across the spectrum and the secular Nasdem party of his personal friend, Surya Paloh. He pledges to scrap the Nusantara capital project and repeal much of Jokowi's agenda.
Muhaimin Iskandar (Cak Imin) is his VP candidate. Leader of the NU affiliated PKB since 2005, he was the handpicked successor of Gus Dur. Not long afterwards, he removed from Gus Dur's family and closest followers from the party and seized total control. A confrontation between the two factions was about to erupt when Gus Dur died in 2007. Gus Dur's faction fizzled out, but his family continue to hold a grudge and they have endorsed the other candidates in the race. Imin was selected as VP because the PKB controls one of the largest grassroots political network in this country.

3. Ganjar Pranowo is the former governor of Central Java and member of parliament. Mostly unknown until he was selected as the PDIP candidate for Central Java governor, he was picked over many more prominent names as he was seen as a loyal party foot soldier unlike the scandal ridden PDIP incumbent and his vice governor. He defeated the incumbent in the 2013 election. His governorship was average but he was not corrupt (graft is a major problem in Indonesia). He handily won reelection in 2018. He was selected as PDIP's candidate for this election as he had a national profile, decent track record and better electability compared to Megawati's daughter and heiress, Puan Maharani.
Mahfud MD is a jurist, former Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court and incumbent coordinating minister for law and security. Son of a civil servant, he was a lecturer close to the PKB when he was appointed defence minister in Gus Dur's cabinet. He contested the 2005 PKB leadership election where Cak Imin won. In 2008 he was elected Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court. His court was largely progressive and uncontroversial. He gained substantial national attention for his tough stance against corruption and graft. After the end of his term as Chief Justice there were attempts to draft him for president in 2014 that amounted to nothing. There were rumors that he was passed over as VP by Jokowi in 2019 as as he was seen as being too independent minded and ambitious. He was appointed minister in Jokowi's second term as a consolation prize. He was selected as VP candidate because of his strong anti corruption image, integrity, and his perceived ability to attract moderate NU votes disillusioned by Imin's alliance with radical islamist parties.

Unlike 2014 & 2019, this election has been more low profile and less polarized. There are few scandals and the candidates have run very disciplined campaigns and messaging. With a majority of voters being under the age of 40, every campaign, especially Prabowo's camp, has made youth focused programs a key plank of their manifestos. A lot of campaigning is done in social media, much of it in TikTok and Instagram, to attract the easily swayed youth vote. Should no candidate win a majority of votes in the first round, a second round will be held on 26th June.

Political Parties
Political parties can be broadly classified as either secular/nationalist or islamist on their position over the role of Islam in Indonesia. Many parties are highly personalistic and function as little more than an electoral vehicle for their leaders. As such, ascribing an ideology to a party is oftimes a futile endeavor as alliances shift based on the interest of their leaders. The main parties are :
1. Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) : Sukarnoist secular center leftish party. Led by Sukarno's daughter, eternal chairwoman Megawati, since its inception. Has a very solid core voter base of poor rural Javanese peasants, irreligious Muslims and religious minorities with higher socioeconomic status (Batak, Chinese, Balinese and Minahasan). With their rock solid base, they have finished either first or second in every election since 1999.
2. Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) : Prabowo's electoral vehicle, a secular ultranationalist party that one may even call fascistic. They do well in Sumatra, West Java and West Nusa Tenggara. They will likely finish first or second this year and greatly increase the number of their seats.
3. Party of Functional Groups (Golkar) : Suharto's party, officialy their ideology is secular corporatism. Today they are strange coalition of oligarchs and regional political machines. Vicious internal conflict in the 2000s damaged the party badly, as a result Golkar have all but given up their presidential ambitions and they have not nominated a party member for president since 2009. But they remain a party of power, and they have been in government for all but two years since 1999. Whoever wins the presidency will almost certainly invite Golkar into government to bolster their parliamentary majority. Their vote is quite evenly spread and they do best in the outer islands where their legacy patronage machines remain strong. This makes them the biggest beneficiary of the electoral system.
4. National Awakening Party (PKB) : Moderate islamist party and the political arm of the NU. PKB can be considered Islam based rather than islamist as they can boast of non Muslim candidates elected from minority regions. Well known for their strong and extensive grassroots, their stronghold is the province of East Java.
5. National Democrats (NasDem) : Secular centrist party that serves as the electoral vehicle of media mogul Surya Paloh. He founded the party after his attempts to win chairmanship of Golkar repeatedly failed. Like Golkar, their vote is evenly spread across Indonesia but they do particularly well among religious minorities of lower socioeconomic status.
6. Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) : Local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, islamist and very conservative. Once very popular among the youth, some analysts even predicted that the next president after SBY will come from PKS. Numerous corruption scandals tarnished their image and they never quite manage to fulfill their hype. During Jokowi's second term they were really the only opposition party in parliament, albeit a very ineffective one. They have moderated somewhat recently and expelled a couple hardline cadres. The party's base comes from middle class urban Muslims and  conservative regions of Indonesia; Aceh, West Sumatra, the ring of satellite cities around Jakarta, Banten, and West Java.
7. Democratic Party (PD/Demokrat) : Secular conservative party and electoral vehicle of former president SBY. Massive corruption scandals led to the party's humiliating defeat in the 2014 legislative election and they have been declining ever since. Currently lead by the SBY's eldest son Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY). The party retains residual strength in parts of Java and Sumatra but not much elsewhere.
8. National Mandate Party (PAN) : Modernist islamist party close to the Muhammadiyah. Founded by pro democracy activist, Amien Rais, the party was a crucial swing vote in many reforms during the difficult first few years of the reformation era. Today they hold onto a small but very loyal base and are quite strong in Aceh and Sulawesi.
9. United Development Party (PPP) : A New Order chimera created by the forced merger of every religious based party into one. Throughout its history it was beset by internal divisions as a result of the incompatibility between the competing traditions of political Islam it represented. After the fall of Suharto many factions left to form their own parties, leaving a declining hulk of a party. In 2019 it had its worst ever results and was half a point from falling under the threshold. The party's base of older Javanese Muslims is dying out rapidly and there is a decent chance they will fall below the 4% threshold this year.

Minor and New Parties
1. People's Conscience Party (Hanura) : Secular conservative party founded as General Wiranto's political vehicle. The party became irrelevant when Wiranto's presidential ambitions ended and the funds he gave them dried out. Will not pass the threshold.
2. Crescent Star Party (PBB) : Minor reformist islamist party. Last entered parliament in 2004, yet somehow manages to keep their registration for every election since. Will not pass the threshold.
3. Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) : Youth focused meme liberal party. By far the most socially liberal party in Indonesia. Currently lead by Jokowi's youngest son 29 year old Kaesang Pangarep. Often accused slavish devotion to Jokowi and his family, they shifted their support from Ganjar to Prabowo after Gibran was selected as his VP candidate. This was the clearest sign for people that the Jokowi world favors Prabowo over his fellow party cadre Ganjar in the presidential election. The party campaigns as the party of Jokowi and uses his image liberally in their ads even though it is clearly illegal as the president must remain neutral and he is not even a member of their party! The party's core support comes from western oriented minorities and youth in major cities like Jakarta, Medan and Surabaya. They have a good chance of passing the threshold this year with Jokowi's covert support.*
4. Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo) : Political vehicle of Chinese Indonesian media mogul, Hary Tanoesoedibjo, nominally secular, and liberal. Hary Tanoe's wealth has enabled him to build a large network of activists even within rural areas. I give them a 30% chance of passing the threshold this year.
5. Labour Party (PB) : PKS splinter masquerading as a center left party. Will not pass the threshold.
6. Indonesian People's Wave Party (Gelora) : Another PKS splinter led by former PKS president and open polygamist Anis Matta. Will not pass the threshold.
7. Change Indonesia Guardian Party (Garuda) : Minor party funded by Suharto's family. Will not pass the threshold.
8. Nusantara Awakening Party (PKN) : Demokrat splinter led by former chairman Anas Urbaningrum, who was convicted of taking bribes and sentenced to 10 years of jail. Will not pass the threshold.
9. Ummah Party (Ummat) : Islamofascists led by former reformer turned hardline islamist Amien Rais. Will not pass the threshold.

Parties of Prabowo's coalition : Gerindra, Golkar, Demokrat, PAN, PSI, PBB, Garuda, Gelora
Parties of Anies' coalition : NasDem, PKB, PKS, Ummat
Parties of Ganjar's coalition : PDIP, PPP, Perindo, Hanura

*Full disclosure, this user campaigned for them in 2019
Note: Most Indonesians do not have surnames and are referred to by their first name or a nickname.

[Logical]

The Electoral System
There is a 4% national threshold to enter parliament. Seats are contested within 84 electoral districts with 3-10 seats each. There is positive malapportionment in favor of the outer islands. It is an open list system where the seats are distributed proportionally to each party using the Sainte-Laguë method which favors smaller parties compared to D'Hondt. The combination these two quirks of the system means that parties with a wide but not deep vote distribution wins more seats than a party whose vote are concentrated within a few strongholds given that they won the same percentage of the vote nationally.


Electoral districts of the 2019 election. The only change since then is the division of Papua from 2 to 6 provinces.

Largest party by electoral district, 2019.


Winner of each city or regency in 2019. Red is Jokowi, brown is Prabowo.

State of the Race
Prabowo's numbers has soared since his selection of Gibran as VP candidate. He is now the clear frontrunner. The Anies and Ganjar camps have so far focused their criticism on Prabowo and refrained for attacking each other too harshly. That may change soon if Prabowo remains in the lead. The first two debates are seen as a wash with Anies dominating the first debate, Prabowo looking helpless and Ganjar in the background. The VP debate is the reverse with Gibran holding his own against two veteran politicians, Imin making a fool of himself and Mahfud mostly anonymous like his senior partner Ganjar. After a quiet late December, the campaign is expected to heat up once more after the New Years Holidays are over.

Some recent polls from trustworthy pollsters. There are many pollsters in Indonesia, but only a select few are good. The gold standard of polls is the Litbang Kompas poll. Their early December poll show Prabowo leading, a close race for second and many undecided.

Prabowo - Gibran 39.3%
Anies - Imin 16.7%
Ganjar - Mahfud 15.3%

Party vote
Gerindra 21.9%
PDIP 18.3%
Golkar 8.0%
PKB 7.4%
Nasdem 4.9%
PKS 4.5%
Demokrat 4.5%
PAN 4.2%
PSI 2.6%
PPP 2.4%
Others 4%

A mid December poll from the CSIS think tank

Prabowo - Gibran 43.7%
Anies - Imin 26.1%
Ganjar - Mahfud 19.3%

Party vote
PDIP: 16.4%
Gerindra: 14.6%
Golkar: 11.9%
PKS: 11.8%
PKB: 9.2%
NasDem: 6.4%
PAN: 5.2%
Demokrat: 4.8%
PPP: 3.5%
Perindo: 1.5%
PSI: 1.3%
Others below 1%

The latest survey from Indikator between 23-24 December

Prabowo - Gibran 46.7%
Ganjar - Mahfud 24.5%
Anies - Imin 21%


PDIP 19.1%
Gerindra 18.2%
Golkar 9.3%
PKB 7.8%
NasDem 6.2%
PKS 6%
PAN 4.5%
Demokrat 4.4%
PPP 2.8%
PSI 2.4%
Perindo 1.7%
Others below 1%

Finally there is the LSI Denny JA poll

Prabowo - Gibran 43.3%
Anies - Imin 25.3%
Ganjar - Mahfud 22.9%

Party vote
Gerindra 19.5%
PDIP 19.3%
Golkar 11.6%
PKB 7.7%
PKS 7.3%
Nasdem 5.8%
Demokrat 3.6%
PAN 3.3%
PPP 2.9%
PSI 1.5%
Perindo 1%
Others below 1%

As you can see, Prabowo can win outright in the first round. The race for second is wide open. On the legislative side PDIP and Gerindra battle for first place with other parties stable. If you are interested in detailed crosstabs from reputable pollsters, ask and I can provide.

[xelas81]

Great write-up
Are there any differences between candidates on the Indonesia-China relationship?

[Logical]

Great write-up
Are there any differences between candidates on the Indonesia-China relationship?

Very little difference. Foreign policy is the least discussed issue in Indonesian elections. The public does not care and elite consensus is that Indonesia's neutrality must be maintained. Under Prabowo and Ganjar the current policy of attracting Chinese investment and expertise in infrastructure megaprojects will continue. Anies is more sceptical of Chinese influence but will not cancel existing contracts. Every candidate agrees that Indonesia should not be dragged into any potential US-China conflict.

[Logical]

Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) mid-December poll for key battleground province of East Java


Probowo 46.7%
Ganjar 26.6%
Anies 16.2%

In 2019 the results were
Jokowi 65.8%
Prabowo 33.2%

Under these numbers, a second round is very likely as there aren't many provinces where Prabowo's vote is expected to increase vs 2019. Outside Java, his vote will go down.


Party vote. Blue is actual results from 2019, green is polling results
PDIP 23.3 %
PKB 20.7 %
Gerindra 16.6 %
Golkar 7.5%
Demokrat 4.9%
NasDem 3.6%
PAN 3.2%
PPP 1.9%
PKS 1.6%
PSI 1.5%
Others <1%
PDIP and PKB remain dominant in this traditionalist heartland but Gerindra is rising to challenge them.


Some interesting crosstabs

No gender, wealth or rural/urban gap between the candidates. But Prabowo clearly does better among the young population while doing worst among university graduates (PT). Anies is the Elizabeth Warren of this race, with multiple polls showing that his support is strongest among the most well educated. Ganjar's support is remarkable even throughout.


Minorities absolutely hate Anies. Most still haven't forgiven him for the traumatic events of 2016-2017. His support among religious minorities (15% of the population) is consistently under 5% in every poll. This is a fundamental disadvantage that is going to hurt him even if he manages to go into the second round.
The Madurese vote is not swinging behind Ganjar despite his VP being Madurese. This is quite surprising. While it is known that the Madurese are very conservative muslims, Mahfud was supposed to peel off a chunk of that vote. Third place here is embarrassing.
Final thing to note is how the Imin as Anies VP candidate has not influenced the NU vote in their heartlands. But why?


Huge vote leakage from PKB, just about a third of PKB voters plan to vote for their presidential candidate!!! It is clear that the loyal PKB/NU vote has failed to consolidate behind Anies and Imin. There are several reasons for this.
1. Imin was never popular with core PKB voters due to his perceived betrayal of Gus Dur.
2. Moderate and liberal islamists are uncomfortable with the radical groups supporting Anies.
3. Many local influential ulamas have declared support of Prabowo or Ganjar while still urging a vote for PKB.
4. Some PKB party branches are not 100% behind Anies and have chosen to focus on the legislative election.
Other major parties show only minor defections from their supported presidential candidates altbough 23% of PDIP voters supporting Prabowo must be concerning for PDIP HQ.

[Logical]

Second presidential debate tonight. The topic was defence and foreign policy. Prabowo is the clear loser, too angry, too easily baited and unable to defend his record as defence minister. He was always a poor debater but this is a subject matter he was supposed to master. Anies was very confrontational from the start and got the clips he wanted of angry Prabowo. Ganjar kept his cool and used a lot of data to make his points. He landed some good late punches on Prabowo.
Will this debate move the polls? Probably not by much.

[Logical]

Litbang Kompas post debate poll

63.3% of voters watched the debate

Will you change your vote after watching the debate?
77.5% No
10.5% Yes
12% Don't know

Are you satisfied with the candidate's performance?
Anies 71.4% satisfied 26.3% unsatisfied
Prabowo 48.9% satisfied 50.4% unsatisfied
Ganjar 79.7% satisfied 18.8% unsatisfied

[Logical]

A couple of early January polls. All pre debate.

Median poll

Prabowo 43.1%
Anies 26.8%
Ganjar 20.1%

Party vote

PDIP 20.8%
Gerindra 20.1%
Golkar 8.5%
PKB 8%
NasDem 7.6%
PKS 5.4%
PAN 4.1%
Demokrat 4%
PSI 2.9%
Gelora 2.8%
PPP 1.2%
Others below 1%
Gelora and PPP numbers are outliers but everyone else is within the polling average

Indikator poll

Prabowo 46.9% (+0.2)
Anies 23.2% (+2.2)
Ganjar 22.2% (-2.3)
(Changes from their late December poll)
Anies has the momentum after his good performance in the first debate. Prabowo's support remains solid.

Party vote

Gerindra 17.9% (-0.3)
PDIP 17.5% (-1.6)
Golkar 9.7% (+0.4)
PKB 8.6% (+1.2)
PKS 7% (+1)
NasDem 6.1% (-0.1)
PAN 5% (+0.5)
Demokrat 4.5% (+0.1)
PPP 3.1% (+0.3)
PSI 1.8% (-0.6)
Hanura 1.2% (+0.8 )
Perindo 0.9% (-0.8 )
Others below 0.5%
Changes with their mid December poll


Fierce battle between PDIP and Gerindra for first place. Gerindra pulled ahead of PDIP for the first time in an Indikator poll but it's all within the MoE.

[patzer]

I've read that the Indonesian government was struggling to find international investment in the development of its new capital city Nusantara thanks to investors worrying that the new government might decide to cancel the project and move the capital back to Jakarta. So my question for those more knowledgeable than me is, does that seem likely?

[Logical]

I've read that the Indonesian government was struggling to find international investment in the development of its new capital city Nusantara thanks to investors worrying that the new government might decide to cancel the project and move the capital back to Jakarta. So my question for those more knowledgeable than me is, does that seem likely?

If Anies wins he has pledged to review the move, which means a long delay or outright cancelation. While his chances of winning is slim, it is not zero as Indonesian voters are very fluid. Prabowo and Ganjar will continue the project.
Now as to why the project has failed to attract international investors it has everything to do with the cost of remoteness and lack of even basic infrastructure in the planned Nusantara site. The government is unable to provide more than 20% of the funding required to build the new capital. Foreign investors are rightly skeptical of the government's projected costs and timetable. The government could increase their funding to show investors their commitment to the project but to do that it has to go in debt or cut some social spending, both completely unpalatable options in an election year. As a result, most investors are waiting until the election season ends before making their decision.

[Logical]

This election is right now the biggest use case of generative AI in the world. Every city, every village is plastered with AI generated images. Almost every TV ad has an element of AI in it too. AI generated art is ubiquitous and has become normalized. The worst thing about it is that everyone but the most educated urban citizens do not recognize that these images are made by AI.

The Prabowo campaign is the worst offender in this regard. In order to whitewash his previous image as an angry demagogue, his campaign has made intensive use of his Disneyfied AI figure. He now brands himself as a cute old grandpa. His actual figure is entirely absent from his official campaign posters.




A sample of the AI generated campaign material from the Prabowo campaign

https://twitter.com/erwinaksa_id/status/1743858270799003875
Another example of AI generated horror. A deepfake of the late dictator Suharto asking people to vote for his former party, Golkar.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

On that note, I Google Prabowo and among the top results is a Guardian article talking about that. It starts off with "As election looms former son-in-law of late dictator Suharto has become popular with young voters thanks to Instagram posts with cats"
Figures...

[Logical]

President Jokowi is reportedly unhappy that Prabowo has not reached 50% in internal polling despite all the electoral tricks he pulled (free goodies, pay raises civil servants etc). Experts believe that it is more difficult for Prabowo to win the second round than the first as the election would turn into a single issue referendum on Prabowo.

[PSOL]

This is the most visually disgusting election I have ever witnessed.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-19/jokowi-critics-near-pact-to-block-indonesia-succession-plan

"Jokowi Critics Near Pact to Block Indonesia Succession Plan"

In recent weeks, officials backing former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan discreetly met several times to discuss a possible pact. That may include intensifying their campaigning in areas dominated by Prabowo in an attempt to dilute his votes and force a runoff election, according to people from both camps who declined to be named as the matter is sensitive.

[Logical]

Some more quality polls before the second VP debate on Sunday.

Indikator Early January poll

Prabowo 45.8%
Anies 25.5% (+2.7)
Ganjar 23% (-2.6)
Prabowo stagnant, Anies establishing himself above Ganjar.

Party vote

PDIP 21.5%
Gerindra 17.3%
Golkar 11.1%
PKB 9.2%
NasDem 6.7%
PKS 5.9%
Demokrat 5.6%
PAN 4.4%
PPP 2.5%
PSI 1.7%
Others below 1%
Serious danger for PPP and PSI falling below the threshold. For PPP it would be a deathblow.

Some interesting crosstabs

Age breakdown
             Anies    Prabowo   Ganjar
17-26     18            61             18
27-42     29            42              22
43-58     28            42              24
59+         23            42             30
Prabowo dominant among the younger generation while Ganjar's voters are older


Regional crosstabs
Ganjar's base in Central Java has been seriously eroded. Only Bali remains steadfast.

LSI Denny JA Early Jan poll

Prabowo 46.6% (+3.3)
Ganjar 24.8% (+1.9)
Anies 22.8% (-2.5)
Unlike other polls they show Anies losing steam and Ganjar ahead


Like other polls they show Anies leading among college and university grads while Prabowo does better the less educated you are.

 
The non Muslim electorate is divided between Ganjar and Prabowo, Anies polls a miserable 2% with them.


Similar age breakdown to other polls. The youth vote is clearly with Prabowo.

Poltracking January poll

Prabowo 46.7% (+1.2)
Anies 26.9% (+3.8 )
Ganjar 20.6% (-6.7)

Party vote

PDIP 20.1%
Gerindra 19.9%
Golkar 10.7%
PKB 9.9%
NasDem 8.1%
PKS 7.5%
Demokrat 5%
PAN 4.7%
PPP 2.9%
PSI 2.0%
Perindo 1.3%
Others below 1%
PDIP down, Gerindra up. Everyone else stable. At this point I think it is very likely that PPP, PSI and Perindo will not pass the threshold so the number of parties represented in the national parliament will be reduced to 8.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1748769000107147280

[Logical]

Indikator mid January double poll with different methods, telephone and face to face.

                          F2F             Telephone
Prabowo    48.6 (+2.8 )       48.6 (+1.7)
Anies          24.2 (-1.3)        21.8 (-1.4)
Ganjar        21.6 (-1.4)         22 (-0.2)
No significant difference between the two. Prabowo inching closer to a first round victory.

Party vote

                   F2F        Telephone
PDIP          20.3           19.1
Gerindra    16.4           19
Golkar       11.4            11.2
PKB            8.9              8.3
PKS            6.9              5.9
Demokrat  6                  4.8  
NasDem    5.6               7.3  
PAN            4.9               4.1
PPP            2.3               3.2
Perindo      1.2               1.4
PSI              0.9               2.1
Others below 1%
Parties more popular amomg the youth does a little better in telephone surveys.

Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) Mid January poll

Prabowo 47 (+1.4)
Anies 23.2 (+0.9)
Ganjar 21.7 (-1.5)
Another poll that shows a first round victory for Prabowo is within reach. Ganjar's vote has steadily declined and he is now behind Anies by a small margin.

Party vote

Gerindra 20.8
PDIP 20.1
Golkar 11.5
PKB 9.0
PKS 6.1
NasDem 5.6
Demokrat 4.8
PAN 4.7
PPP 2.3
PSI 2.2
Perindo 1.2
Others below 1%
Gerindra now in the lead but the margin is small.

Charta Politika (close to PDIP) January poll

Prabowo 42.2 (-1.6)
Ganjar  28.0 (+1.5)
Anies  26.7 (+0.4)
As expected their narrative shows Prabowo far from winning in one round and Ganjar ahead but not too far from Anies.

Party vote

PDIP 22.6
Gerindra 18.8
Golkar 9.3
NasDem 8.8
PKB 8.0
PKS 6.8
PAN 4.0
Demokrat 3.9
PPP 3.6
Perindo 2.8
PSI 1.9
Others below 1%
Charta always overpolls PDIP at the expense of every other party so you need to shave 3-4% off from their top line numbers. Once you do the results resemble other polls.

[Logical]

With three weeks to go my current prediction is
Prabowo  48.5
Ganjar      25.5
Anies        25

Undecided voters usually swing against the incumbent in Indonesian elections. With Jokowi's strong backing, Prabowo is the de facto incumbent in this race. One thing I'm still not certain about is the fight for second place. I can see anti Prabowo voters consolidating behind Anies or Ganjar in the final days. The last debate will be crucial.

Legislative election
PDIP          19.0 (-0.3)
Gerindra    18.5 (+5.9)
Golkar       12.0  (-0.3)
PKB             9.5  (-0.2)
PKS             7.5  (-0.7)
NasDem     7.0  (-2)
Demokrat   6.0  (-1.8 )
PAN             5.5  (-1.3)
-------4% Threshold --------
PPP             3.5  (-1)
PSI               2.5  (+0.6)
Perindo       2.5  (-0.2)
Gelora         1.0   (New)
All others below 1%

Superior candidate quality and the large personal votes of PDIP incumbents will help PDIP retain its place as the most voted party but Gerindra has better vote distribution and will likely win more seats if they're only slightly behind. Other parties are mostly stagnant save for NasDem and PAN who are being punished for corruption scandals and their poor performance as ministers in Jokowi's government. No new party will enter the national parliament this year.

[Logical]

Second VP debate tonight was pretty lively. Imin and Mahfud learned from their mistakes in the first debate and appeared more confident today. Gibran tried to use the same debate tricks as last time and flopped. Tag team of Imin and Mahfud used the time alotted to them to critize the government, a clear sign that the unofficial anti Prabowo pact is in effect. Only about a third or so of all voters intend to watch this debate however so it will not matter much.

[jaichind]

With three weeks to go my current prediction is
Prabowo  48.5
Ganjar      25.5
Anies        25
 

Even if this were to take place it would seem that it is not realistic for Prabowo in the second round.  Have there been any second round polling?

[Logical]

With three weeks to go my current prediction is
Prabowo  48.5
Ganjar      25.5
Anies        25
 

Even if this were to take place it would seem that it is not realistic for Prabowo in the second round.  Have there been any second round polling?

There is a lot of second round polling and they all show Prabowo 10-30 points ahead with a lot of undecideds. If there is to be a second round I think Prabowo will most likely win. However, all these polls are merely a snapshot. In an actual second round, there are strong signs that the parties backing Anies and Ganjar will unite behind the one facing Prabowo. Jokowi and the parties backing Prabowo have gone all out (an analogy can be made to the Peronist machines in Argentina 2023) to win this election in one round, it would be a very disappointing result they failed.
Prabowo is a poor candidate with many glaring weaknesses (human rights issues, failed polices as defence minister etc), but so far the main topic of this election has been President Jokowi policies. By running with Jokowi's son he has successfully campaigned on Jokowi's merits rather than his own. Should the election turn into a referendum on Prabowo rather than of change vs continuation of Jokowi's policies he would be quite disadvantaged.

[Logical]

LSI January poll for West Sumatra

Prabowo 49.8
Anies       42.1
Ganjar       4.3

West Sumatra is the most conservative province in Indonesia (even more than Aceh, believe it or not), in 2019 the results were
Prabowo 86.0
Jokowi 14.0
This is a must win province for Anies if he wants to make it into the second round so to be behind here is not a good sign.

Party vote

                     Poll       2019 results
Gerindra      30.2            20.6
NasDem      13.6              7.6
Golkar          11.2              7.4
PKS              10.7             13.0
PAN               8.5              15.1
Demokrat      7.7             13.5
PDIP               4.9               4.7
PPP                2.0               5.2
PKB                1.5               3.3
Others below 1%

Prabowo's coattails can be seen here, with Gerindra's vote being double the second largest party.
Predicted seat count by my own estimates
Gerindra   5 (+2)
NasDem   2 (+1)
Golkar       2
PKS           2
PAN           2 (-1)
Demokrat 1 (-1)
PPP           0 (-1)

[Logical]

Ganjar's VP candidate Mahfud is resigning his post as minister. The final straw was President Jokowi declaring it was fine for him to campaign for a candidate with Prabowo next to him. Presidents are expected to be neutral during a campaign and this has become a major issue. Rumour mills say other PDIP cabinet ministers will follow his resignation.

[Conservatopia]

Where do the candidates stand on foreign policy, ties to US/Australia, and things like blasphemy etc?