Indonesian 🇮🇩 General Election 14th February 2024

[Logical]

Where do the candidates stand on foreign policy, ties to US/Australia, and things like blasphemy etc?

Anies : Some word salad about how Indonesia will be respected internationally but in practice he will be keeping US and China at arm's length and forge closer relations with the Gulf petrostates. Anies is supported by both islamists and SJWs but the islamist vote is stronger so if he wins the blasphemy laws will likely get used a lot more.

Prabowo : He has said some positive things about AUKUS but there won't be too much change. He needs Chinese money to build the new capital so he cannot afford to alienate them. Under Prabowo free speech will be curtailed further. Blasphemy laws will seem tame in comparison when mild criticism of the government officials lands you in costly legal problems.

Ganjar : Again, status quo. He will keeping China and US equidistant while trying to attract Chinese direct investment in our industry and transport. PDIP doesn't like the blasphemy law but they don't have the votes to repeal it on their own so nothing will happen.

Like I've said previously, every candidate agrees that Indonesia must not get dragged into a US-China confrontation. We value our neutrality very much.

[Logical]

Speaking of blasphemies, the former governor of Jakarta, Ahok, is resigning from his position as president commissioner of the state owned oil company, Pertamina, to campaign for Ganjar. Exciting move as he still has considerable sway with the Chinese and urban Christian voters. The rift between PDIP and Jokowi is growing everyday.

The Pertamina commissioner post is one of the most well paid sinecure in Indonesia. It was granted to Ahok a couple months after he left prison as a reward for his loyalty.

[Logical]

Tonight is the third and final presidential debate. Expect Anies and Ganjar to tag team to break Prabowo's momentum.

[Logical]

Turned out to be a pretty boring debate. Everyone played safe and did not engage in the harsh attacks of the the first and second debate. I don't think there will much voter movement from this one.

[Logical]

Where each pair of candidates have been campaigning.

The population weight of Java means that every candidate spent a majority of their time there. But there are some differences, Anies and Prabowo visited Sumatra a lot of times while Ganjar is more or less camping in the PDIP strongholds of Central and East Java. Outside Java the Ganjar campaign is relying on proxies and for the ethnic vote to remain loyal.

[Logical]

Election year social programs

Free money! The government has spent 550 trillion Rupiahs (roughly 35 billion USD or 1.5% of the GDP) on election year social programs, subsidies and cash handouts. The practice of throwing money to the poor on an election year is nothing new but the scale of this year's handouts dwarfs every previous election.

[Logical]

Indikator likely final poll

Prabowo 51.8 (+3.3)
Anies       24.1
Ganjar     19.6 (-2)
Prabowo above 50 for the first time in an Indikator poll. Ganjar continues to fall. Anies flat.

Party vote

PDIP         19.6
Gerindra   17.2
Golkar       12.1
PKB            9.5
PKS            7.9
Demokrat  6.9
NasDem    6.7
PAN            6.4
PPP            2.2
PSI              2.0
Perindo      1.2
Others below 1%
PDIP regain their lead. PPP, PSI and Perindo almost certainly out of parliament.

Jokowi's approval ratings is at its peak

The massive welfare and redistribution programs have pushed Jokowi's approval ratings to its highest levels. In the end, it's very very difficult to beat the candidate with Jokowi's backing.

[Logical]

LSI final poll

Prabowo 51.9 (+4.9)
Anies       23.3 (+0.1)
Ganjar     20.3 (-1.4)
Another poll showing continued momentum for Prabowo. Anies and Ganjar stagnant.

Party vote

PDIP         19.5
Gerindra   18.0
Golkar       13.3
PKB            9.4
NasDem    6.0
Demokrat  5.8
PKS            5.7
PAN            5.2
PPP            2.4
PSI              1.2
Perindo      1.2
Others below 1%
Medium sized parties get a boost from undecideds. PDIP and Gerindra still fiercely contesting first place.

Crosstabs of the day

28.1% of PDIP voters intend to vote for Prabowo
41.7% of PKB voters intend to vote for Prabowo
25.3% of NasDem voters intend to vote for Prabowo
15.2% of PKS voters intend to vote for Prabowo
Meanwhile 92.3% of Gerindra voters intend to vote for Prabowo
It is clear that Prabowo has strong cross party appeal which is why he is very well ahead right now.

[Logical]

Lasy day of the campaign period is today. Then there will be three days of electoral silence where campaigning is prohibited. Pictures from the final campaign rallies of each candidate.

Anies in Jakarta



Prabowo in Jakarta



Ganjar in Semarang, Central Java

[jaichind]

My prediction/guess

Subianto     52
Baswedan   26
Pranowo     22

[Logical]

Indonesians abroad vote today and we have an unofficial exit poll for Melbourne (12k registered voters).


Ganjar       50.4
Anies         27.9
Prabowo   21.6

In 2019 the results were
Jokowi    88.8
Prabowo 11.2

Indonesians in Australia are majority Chinese or Christian, very progressive and wealthy. The exit poll shows that this voting bloc remains loyal to PDIP.  Surprisingly strong performance from Anies to finish above Prabowo here.

Party vote compared to 2019 (top 3 only)
PDIP  33.6 (-1.3)
PSI     17.2 (-18)
PKS   16.3 (+9.5)

Turnout fell from 8k voters in 2019 to just about 5k voters today. It appears to me that low propensity voters that turned out en masse for Jokowi and voted for the progressive PSI did not show up this time.

[Logical]

With three weeks to go my current prediction is
Prabowo  48.5
Ganjar      25.5
Anies        25

Legislative election
PDIP          19.0 (-0.3)
Gerindra    18.5 (+5.9)
Golkar       12.0  (-0.3)
PKB             9.5  (-0.2)
PKS             7.5  (-0.7)
NasDem     7.0  (-2)
Demokrat   6.0  (-1.8 )
PAN             5.5  (-1.3)
-------4% Threshold --------
PPP             3.5  (-1)
PSI               2.5  (+0.6)
Perindo       2.5  (-0.2)
Gelora         1.0   (New)
All others below 1%

My final prediction
Prabowo   51
Anies         25
Ganjar       23

I would say that Prabowo chances of winning outright in the first round is 65%.

Legislative election
PDIP           19.0 (-0.3)
Gerindra    18.0 (+5.4)
Golkar        13.0 (+0.7)
PKB             9.5  (-0.2)
PKS             8.0  (-0.2)
NasDem     7.0  (-2)
Demokrat   6.5  (-1.3)
PAN             5.5  (-1.3)
-------4% Threshold--------
PPP             3.5  (-1)
PSI               2.5  (+0.6)
Perindo       2.5  (-0.2)
Gelora         1.0   (New)
All others below 1%

PDIP will likely remain largest party but Prabowo's coalition should be pretty close to a majority.

Many A+ grade pollsters like Litbang Kompas and SMRC did not publish election eve polls unlike 2019 so I'm not quite certain of my predictions.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

An AI deepfake of former military dictator Suharto was released by Golkar.
(Headline in portuguese) https://www.metropoles.com/mundo/ia-ressuscita-ditador-na-indonesia-as-vesperas-das-eleicoes-no-pais

[jaichind]

Polls close at 1 PM.  Are there any links to unofficial results?

[Logical]

Polls close at 1 PM.  Are there any links to unofficial results?

Official counts are very very very slow. There are quick counts instead. They are accurate within 1-2% of final results. We should be able to get some numbers by 3 PM and know who the winner is by 5 PM if it isn't close.

[Logical]

Live broadcast links

KompasTV (fastest and most accurate quick counts)
https://www.youtube.com/live/DOOrIxw5xOw

CNN Indonesia
https://www.youtube.com/live/j9TJgBggclw

Metro TV
https://www.youtube.com/live/PWwQCaEJ6yc

TVOne
https://www.youtube.com/live/wMpoFc2w4PA

Berita Satu
https://www.youtube.com/live/QL47c6f5Ca0

iNews
https://www.youtube.com/live/y2aiJ448F6A

TVRI
https://www.youtube.com/live/ExPT_tuEYZE

[Logical]

Polls have closed in most places. The ballots are counted manually one by one in front of the public so it will take a while before we have actual numbers. There is minor flooding in parts of Jakarta but it shouldn't affect results or turnout much.

[Logical]

Early results from Bali is looking horrendous for Ganjar and tremendous for Prabowo. Prabowo is leading 65-33 in the most stalwart PDIP bastion.

[Logical]

Unofficial results collected by volunteers. Keep in mind that the sample isn't representative nationwide. Some provinces have more volunteers reporting, others have fewer.
https://kawalpemilu.org/

[Logical]

First quick count released
Litbang Kompas (31% reported)
Prabowo   60.3
Anies         21.5
Ganjar       18.2
Prabowo will win. His numbers will go down when more of Sumatra reports but it's over.

[Logical]

More quick counts

Charta Politika (33% reporting)
Prabowo   57.5
Anies         24.9
Ganjar       17.7

Indikator (26% reporting)
Prabowo   59.5
Anies         23.5
Ganjar       17

LSI (25% reporting)
Prabowo   58.4 
Anies         23.6
Ganjar        18

Poltracking (35% reporting)
Prabowo   60.6
Anies         21
Ganjar       18.4

https://pemilu.kompas.com/quickcount

[Logical]

Looks like Ganjar's vote collapsed among core PDIP demographics in the last few days. In my homogeneous Chinese neighborhood Prabowo and Ganjar are neck and neck. This is an area that regularly gives PDIP candidates over 70% of the vote. In 2019 Prabowo won just 2% of the vote here. Same story in Balinese, Batak, and Javanese regions.

[Logical]

Updated quick counts

Litbang Kompas (68% reporting)
Prabowo   59.2
Anies         24.4
Ganjar       16.4

Charta Politika (67% reporting)
Prabowo   57.6
Anies         26
Ganjar       16.4

Indikator (62% reporting)
Prabowo   58
Anies         25.5
Ganjar       16.5

LSI (61% reporting)
Prabowo   57
Anies         25.7
Ganjar       17.3

Poltracking (66.5% reporting)
Prabowo   59.6
Anies         23.5
Ganjar       16.9

The counts are converging. Prabowo will win with 56-60% of the vote.

[jaichind]

Updated quick counts

Litbang Kompas (68% reporting)
Prabowo   59.2
Anies         24.4
Ganjar       16.4

Charta Politika (67% reporting)
Prabowo   57.6
Anies         26
Ganjar       16.4

Indikator (62% reporting)
Prabowo   58
Anies         25.5
Ganjar       16.5

LSI (61% reporting)
Prabowo   57
Anies         25.7
Ganjar       17.3

Poltracking (66.5% reporting)
Prabowo   59.6
Anies         23.5
Ganjar       16.9

The counts are converging. Prabowo will win with 56-60% of the vote.

Is he going to be that high?  Is this not mostly about the Java results?  And in the Java quick counts it is not clear he is that high

[jaichind]

Wait, so Pranowo is running behind the PDI legislative vote?  I guess there were some PDI tactical voting for Baswedan?