Do you think a South Brooklyn congressional district will appear at some point?.

[wnwnwn]

As I suppose most already know, this area has been leaning and trending republican in the last years.
As the black population of Brooklyn reduces and a asian district majority between Manhattan and Brooklyn may be demanded by asian americans in some years, I suppose there may not be enought incentives for NY democrats in some years to avoid a South Brooklyn district in some years. Also, jewish lobby groups may work to give the increasing orthodox jewish republican population of these areas the possibility of getting a voice at the US House.
Do you think that a competitive US House district in South Brooklyn nay be drawn in the future?

[Oryxslayer]

There are numerous problems with this district idea, but let's start with the two big ones. The first is that Dems control NY government. Even under the current commission rules, the maps still must go through the legislature which won't see anything but a Dem (sometimes super)majority for a long time. They won't pass a map that makes a safe D seat into a safe R one. Looking at the historical congressional maps, you can watch all seats with decent bases in the region vanish with seat loss, Weiner's being the last. The second big issue is that there isn't enough people there to construct such a seat. Only about 60% of one. The GOP in their commisioner map from when things deadlocked in 2021/2 paired the group with parts of Nassau via the rockaway peninsula. And of you throw in the the Chinese areas, you are no longer creating a seat based on the South Brooklyn white  population,  you are creating a seat based on partisanship. Which brings you back to point one.

The alternative to the present process is a master or true commission, but both won't do it for more specific reasons.  NY is only losing congressional districts with time,  not gaining.  So if a community has to get services, another must lose. And minority districts are always going to get served first. They have a justified legal existence. Doesn't matter what we know about a group,  the official census data can only treat them as White, and whites have half the NY districts already.  More important,  they are whites from the opposite party sharing a community region with the minority community.  A RPV experts ideal group. They don't vote in the same primary as the minority community, and the GE is locked up by the minority community and other small populations. This means the de facto group VAP in the district is much higher than it appears on the tin.

[Tintrlvr]

A plurality or even majority Asian-American district centered in southern Brooklyn is a distinct possibility after the 2040 Census, if not 2030, assuming current trends continue. It would not include the ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods, of course, which would dilute the Asian vote. While that hypothetical district is not currently solidly Democratic, as the white population drops and Asian population grows in the relevant neighborhoods, it would become more Democratic and likely be solidly so by the time any such district would be drawn.

Proof of concept if you need it: https://davesredistricting.org/join/814db4ed-a1c5-4dae-97e6-aeafa6280782

In 2020, it was Biden +9.3 and 41.8% white, 33.9% Asian, 18.9% Hispanic, 5.9% black, almost certain to be plurality Asian in 2030 based on current trends.

[wnwnwn]

My ideas was that the creation of an asian distirct int eh future between Manhattan Chinatown and Brooklyn asian neightborhoods would force the creation of a district based in white republican South Brooklyn areas. Now, I tried to run something kind of similar and unless the jewish republican population in Crown Heights grows a lot and Manhattan Chinatown grows a lot too.

Well, I could see democrats creating a D+2 district in South Brooklyn in exchange for making the Staten Island+Brooklyn district D+2 or something like that. I suppose this gamble could be approved, especially after what happened with the Nassau County based seats in the 2022 elections.

[Tintrlvr]

My ideas was that the creation of an asian distirct int eh future between Manhattan Chinatown and Brooklyn asian neightborhoods would force the creation of a district based in white republican South Brooklyn areas. Now, I tried to run something kind of similar and unless the jewish republican population in Crown Heights grows a lot and Manhattan Chinatown grows a lot too.

Geographically this doesn't really work. If you pair Chinatown with the Asian neighborhoods in southern Brooklyn, the ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods alone aren't big enough for a district and get forced into the majority black districts.

Manhattan Chinatown is shrinking rather than growing these days (the growth is all in Brooklyn and Queens), so while it may be taken into consideration for the current redistricting, it is unlikely to be a major factor by 2040. The ultra-Orthodox population is Crown Heights is small and surrounded by black voters (and white liberals to the west nowadays) and therefore can never be put into a Republican district - you are thinking of Borough Park.

[kwabbit]

There are numerous problems with this district idea, but let's start with the two big ones. The first is that Dems control NY government. Even under the current commission rules, the maps still must go through the legislature which won't see anything but a Dem (sometimes super)majority for a long time. They won't pass a map that makes a safe D seat into a safe R one. Looking at the historical congressional maps, you can watch all seats with decent bases in the region vanish with seat loss, Weiner's being the last. The second big issue is that there isn't enough people there to construct such a seat. Only about 60% of one. The GOP in their commisioner map from when things deadlocked in 2021/2 paired the group with parts of Nassau via the rockaway peninsula. And of you throw in the the Chinese areas, you are no longer creating a seat based on the South Brooklyn white  population,  you are creating a seat based on partisanship. Which brings you back to point one.

The alternative to the present process is a master or true commission, but both won't do it for more specific reasons.  NY is only losing congressional districts with time,  not gaining.  So if a community has to get services, another must lose. And minority districts are always going to get served first. They have a justified legal existence. Doesn't matter what we know about a group,  the official census data can only treat them as White, and whites have half the NY districts already.  More important,  they are whites from the opposite party sharing a community region with the minority community.  A RPV experts ideal group. They don't vote in the same primary as the minority community, and the GE is locked up by the minority community and other small populations. This means the de facto group VAP in the district is much higher than it appears on the tin.

Isn't the unilateral control over redistricting the product of a Democratic supermajority in the State Senate? I thought that they needed 2/3 or else negotiation with the GOP was necessary. Honestly them keeping the 2/3 was a miracle in 2022 and the supermajority could be broken, which would, to my understanding, force a more neutral map.

[patzer]

A plurality or even majority Asian-American district centered in South Brooklyn is a distinct possibility after the 2040 Census, if not 2030, assuming current trends continue. It would not include the ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods, of course, which would dilute the Asian vote. While that hypothetical district is not currently solidly Democratic, as the white population drops and Asian population grows in the relevant neighborhoods, it would become more Democratic and likely be solidly so by the time any such district would be drawn.

Proof of concept if you need it: https://davesredistricting.org/join/814db4ed-a1c5-4dae-97e6-aeafa6280782

In 2020, it was Biden +9.3 and 41.8% white, 33.9% Asian, 18.9% Hispanic, 5.9% black, almost certain to be plurality Asian in 2030 based on current trends.

Interestingly, that district may well end up replacing one of the two black districts currently in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn VAP 2010: White 36.8%, Black 35.3%, Hispanic 18.8%, Asian 11.4%
Brooklyn VAP 2020: White 35.5%, Black 32.4%, Hispanic 18.3%, Asian 15.2%
It's easy to imagine two black Brooklyn districts not being viable for much longer.

[Tintrlvr]

A plurality or even majority Asian-American district centered in South Brooklyn is a distinct possibility after the 2040 Census, if not 2030, assuming current trends continue. It would not include the ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods, of course, which would dilute the Asian vote. While that hypothetical district is not currently solidly Democratic, as the white population drops and Asian population grows in the relevant neighborhoods, it would become more Democratic and likely be solidly so by the time any such district would be drawn.

Proof of concept if you need it: https://davesredistricting.org/join/814db4ed-a1c5-4dae-97e6-aeafa6280782

In 2020, it was Biden +9.3 and 41.8% white, 33.9% Asian, 18.9% Hispanic, 5.9% black, almost certain to be plurality Asian in 2030 based on current trends.

Interestingly, that district may well end up replacing one of the two black districts currently in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn VAP 2010: White 36.8%, Black 35.3%, Hispanic 18.8%, Asian 11.4%
Brooklyn VAP 2020: White 35.5%, Black 32.4%, Hispanic 18.3%, Asian 15.2%
It's easy to imagine two black Brooklyn districts not being viable for much longer.

Much more likely that they will let both black districts get diluted down to ~40% black, which is still plenty enough in NYC to dominate the primary, than eliminate one.

[Oryxslayer]

A plurality or even majority Asian-American district centered in South Brooklyn is a distinct possibility after the 2040 Census, if not 2030, assuming current trends continue. It would not include the ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods, of course, which would dilute the Asian vote. While that hypothetical district is not currently solidly Democratic, as the white population drops and Asian population grows in the relevant neighborhoods, it would become more Democratic and likely be solidly so by the time any such district would be drawn.

Proof of concept if you need it: https://davesredistricting.org/join/814db4ed-a1c5-4dae-97e6-aeafa6280782

In 2020, it was Biden +9.3 and 41.8% white, 33.9% Asian, 18.9% Hispanic, 5.9% black, almost certain to be plurality Asian in 2030 based on current trends.

Interestingly, that district may well end up replacing one of the two black districts currently in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn VAP 2010: White 36.8%, Black 35.3%, Hispanic 18.8%, Asian 11.4%
Brooklyn VAP 2020: White 35.5%, Black 32.4%, Hispanic 18.3%, Asian 15.2%
It's easy to imagine two black Brooklyn districts not being viable for much longer.

Much more likely that they will let both black districts get diluted down to ~40% black, which is still plenty enough in NYC to dominate the primary, than eliminate one.

Especially since, as I mentioned above, putting GOP whites as the other demographic group is ideal in terms of RPV performance. As long as there are more than enough allies for the largest minority group, having a healthy section of the VAP not be voting in the primary controlled by the majority party increases the amount of electoral control held by the majority demographic.

[Atlas Force]

A plurality or even majority Asian-American district centered in South Brooklyn is a distinct possibility after the 2040 Census, if not 2030, assuming current trends continue. It would not include the ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods, of course, which would dilute the Asian vote. While that hypothetical district is not currently solidly Democratic, as the white population drops and Asian population grows in the relevant neighborhoods, it would become more Democratic and likely be solidly so by the time any such district would be drawn.

Proof of concept if you need it: https://davesredistricting.org/join/814db4ed-a1c5-4dae-97e6-aeafa6280782

In 2020, it was Biden +9.3 and 41.8% white, 33.9% Asian, 18.9% Hispanic, 5.9% black, almost certain to be plurality Asian in 2030 based on current trends.

Interestingly, that district may well end up replacing one of the two black districts currently in Brooklyn.

Brooklyn VAP 2010: White 36.8%, Black 35.3%, Hispanic 18.8%, Asian 11.4%
Brooklyn VAP 2020: White 35.5%, Black 32.4%, Hispanic 18.3%, Asian 15.2%
It's easy to imagine two black Brooklyn districts not being viable for much longer.

Much more likely that they will let both black districts get diluted down to ~40% black, which is still plenty enough in NYC to dominate the primary, than eliminate one.

So similar to what happened in California with CA-37 and CA-43, which are both Latino-majority but still have sizable enough black populations to be comfortably controlled by black voters, especially with turnout dynamics.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is difficult to pull off, especially as NY is losing seats and could lose multiple this decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is difficult to pull off, especially as NY is losing seats and could lose multiple this decade.

Tbf, NYC proper has been keeping up quite well, most of the apportionment loss (At least in 2020 census) was from upstate and LI. Iirc a few of the NYC CDs including 2 or 3 in Brooklyn were overpopulated despite NY losing a seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is difficult to pull off, especially as NY is losing seats and could lose multiple this decade.

Tbf, NYC proper has been keeping up quite well, most of the apportionment loss (At least in 2020 census) was from upstate and LI. Iirc a few of the NYC CDs including 2 or 3 in Brooklyn were overpopulated despite NY losing a seat.

True, but if NYS is losing 2-3 seats in 2030, NYC still loses at least half a seat, which makes the math harder.