United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[beesley]

The PA don't seem to have released their estimated declaration times yet. They appear to have released them for the local elections (2nd of May) on the 20th of April, so we should be getting them soon.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cpAvsFezpgGRxI2lUOP1mPTOMwbHVpC70oQkxWslZgw/edit?usp=drivesdk


https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html

Here they are, as spreadsheet and web article respectively.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I had started to think Corbyn was going to lose for some time actually. It seems as if the poll has detected a relatively sizeable number of people who were unaware of Corbyn's suspension, also as expected.

Yeah a problem for JC is he doesn’t have an alternative parties vote to rely on; a lot of people will either vote Labour because they always vote Labour, or because they didn’t realise he had been suspended.

Wouldn’t this become obvious in the voting booth? If so, it could mean the polls underestimate him.

[Torrain]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cpAvsFezpgGRxI2lUOP1mPTOMwbHVpC70oQkxWslZgw/edit?usp=drivesdk

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html

Here they are, as spreadsheet and web article respectively.

We’re getting Basildon & Billericay at 00.15? That could set a particular tone for the evening quite early, if some of the anecdotal reports are to be believed.

Also, if they’re counting Rutherglen by 00.45, we should have some initial data on the SNP-Lab swing pretty early in the night, hours before Glasgow and Edinburgh start to report.

[beesley]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cpAvsFezpgGRxI2lUOP1mPTOMwbHVpC70oQkxWslZgw/edit?usp=drivesdk

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html

Here they are, as spreadsheet and web article respectively.

We’re getting Basildon & Billericay at 00.15? That could set a particular tone for the evening quite early, if some of the anecdotal reports are to be believed.

And it would make another Basildon moment, but the other way this time!

Also, to add to yours, I'll mention that Harrogate and Knaresborough is the earliest Lib Dem target at a 1.45am estimate. Plus Rishi Sunak is expected to hear his result ahead of Keir Starmer, at 3.45am and 4.15am respectively. For Americans celebrating Independence Day, you're probably too busy for even the big flurry of results starting 2.45am here / 9.45pm Eastern. Of course these estimates are normally blown out of the water.

[Alcibiades]

I had started to think Corbyn was going to lose for some time actually. It seems as if the poll has detected a relatively sizeable number of people who were unaware of Corbyn's suspension, also as expected.

Yeah a problem for JC is he doesn’t have an alternative parties vote to rely on; a lot of people will either vote Labour because they always vote Labour, or because they didn’t realise he had been suspended.

One potentially interesting factor is what happens to the seat’s sizeable 2019 Lib Dem vote — 15.6%, which represented an increase for the party of over 70% on 2017. This followed a pattern seen in many other heavily Remain-voting, safe Labour seats in Inner London, though the proportional increase was particularly large in Islington North. This of course suggests it was largely driven by 2017 Labour voters switching over Brexit, and in particular Corbyn’s perceived Euroscepticism. All this is to say that a good deal of the 2019 Lib Dem vote in the seat was to some extent an anti-Corbyn vote, and so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see much of it flow to Nargund as the tactical anti-Corbyn option this time — which could well prove decisive.

[LAB-LIB]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cpAvsFezpgGRxI2lUOP1mPTOMwbHVpC70oQkxWslZgw/edit?usp=drivesdk

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html

Here they are, as spreadsheet and web article respectively.

We’re getting Basildon & Billericay at 00.15? That could set a particular tone for the evening quite early, if some of the anecdotal reports are to be believed.

And it would make another Basildon moment, but the other way this time!

Also, to add to yours, I'll mention that Harrogate and Knaresborough is the earliest Lib Dem target at a 1.45am estimate. Plus Rishi Sunak is expected to hear his result ahead of Keir Starmer, at 3.45am and 4.15am respectively. For Americans celebrating Independence Day, you're probably too busy for even the big flurry of results starting 2.45am here / 9.45pm Eastern.

We Americans can and will multitask!

[Badger]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cpAvsFezpgGRxI2lUOP1mPTOMwbHVpC70oQkxWslZgw/edit?usp=drivesdk

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html

Here they are, as spreadsheet and web article respectively.

We’re getting Basildon & Billericay at 00.15? That could set a particular tone for the evening quite early, if some of the anecdotal reports are to be believed.

And it would make another Basildon moment, but the other way this time!

Also, to add to yours, I'll mention that Harrogate and Knaresborough is the earliest Lib Dem target at a 1.45am estimate. Plus Rishi Sunak is expected to hear his result ahead of Keir Starmer, at 3.45am and 4.15am respectively. For Americans celebrating Independence Day, you're probably too busy for even the big flurry of results starting 2.45am here / 9.45pm Eastern.

We Americans can and will multitask!

Wait a minute. English election results start coming in only in the middle of the night well after midnight?

[TheTide]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cpAvsFezpgGRxI2lUOP1mPTOMwbHVpC70oQkxWslZgw/edit?usp=drivesdk

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html

Here they are, as spreadsheet and web article respectively.

We’re getting Basildon & Billericay at 00.15? That could set a particular tone for the evening quite early, if some of the anecdotal reports are to be believed.

And it would make another Basildon moment, but the other way this time!

Also, to add to yours, I'll mention that Harrogate and Knaresborough is the earliest Lib Dem target at a 1.45am estimate. Plus Rishi Sunak is expected to hear his result ahead of Keir Starmer, at 3.45am and 4.15am respectively. For Americans celebrating Independence Day, you're probably too busy for even the big flurry of results starting 2.45am here / 9.45pm Eastern.

We Americans can and will multitask!

Wait a minute. English election results start coming in only in the middle of the night well after midnight?

The English ones, yes. The Welsh, Scots and Northern Irish meanwhile all have superpowers which enable them to declare their results within one-millionth of a femtosecond.

[LAB-LIB]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cpAvsFezpgGRxI2lUOP1mPTOMwbHVpC70oQkxWslZgw/edit?usp=drivesdk

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html

Here they are, as spreadsheet and web article respectively.

We’re getting Basildon & Billericay at 00.15? That could set a particular tone for the evening quite early, if some of the anecdotal reports are to be believed.

And it would make another Basildon moment, but the other way this time!

Also, to add to yours, I'll mention that Harrogate and Knaresborough is the earliest Lib Dem target at a 1.45am estimate. Plus Rishi Sunak is expected to hear his result ahead of Keir Starmer, at 3.45am and 4.15am respectively. For Americans celebrating Independence Day, you're probably too busy for even the big flurry of results starting 2.45am here / 9.45pm Eastern.

We Americans can and will multitask!

Wait a minute. English election results start coming in only in the middle of the night well after midnight?

Polls close at 10 PM local time, we get the exit poll, every seat they count all the results at once and then one it is finished, the returning officer announces the result with all the candidates lined up behind them. The lions share of the results come between 2:00 and 6:00 AM though there is usually a race between a few to be the first to declare and we'll have our first result around 11:00. Some seats don't declare until well into the next day.

[Sestak]

So if Basildon and Billericay does go, then decent chance we don't end up seeing any non-Labour seats until the 2:00 wave. Would be something to see.

[Pericles]

So if Basildon and Billericay does go, then decent chance we don't end up seeing any non-Labour seats until the 2:00 wave. Would be something to see.

I believe one of the MRPs had it as a possible Reform gain and my own guess is that it's one of their most plausible targets. However, I don't know if they are contesting it heavily, and Labour starts out with a higher base than in some better Reform targets.

[Pericles]

I like the rhetoric about this being a 'game-changing government' that leaves the country 'transformed'. I've heard it before though and it didn't work out though.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1805759150321696916

[YL]

So if Basildon and Billericay does go, then decent chance we don't end up seeing any non-Labour seats until the 2:00 wave. Would be something to see.

I believe one of the MRPs had it as a possible Reform gain and my own guess is that it's one of their most plausible targets. However, I don't know if they are contesting it heavily, and Labour starts out with a higher base than in some better Reform targets.

Has anyone picked up a strong Reform ground game anywhere?

[Kalimantan]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cpAvsFezpgGRxI2lUOP1mPTOMwbHVpC70oQkxWslZgw/edit?usp=drivesdk

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html

Here they are, as spreadsheet and web article respectively.

We’re getting Basildon & Billericay at 00.15? That could set a particular tone for the evening quite early, if some of the anecdotal reports are to be believed.

And it would make another Basildon moment, but the other way this time!

Also, to add to yours, I'll mention that Harrogate and Knaresborough is the earliest Lib Dem target at a 1.45am estimate. Plus Rishi Sunak is expected to hear his result ahead of Keir Starmer, at 3.45am and 4.15am respectively. For Americans celebrating Independence Day, you're probably too busy for even the big flurry of results starting 2.45am here / 9.45pm Eastern.

We Americans can and will multitask!

Wait a minute. English election results start coming in only in the middle of the night well after midnight?

Yep. We don't report partial counts like in US elections. Everything is counted and then the winner declared.

[TheTide]

Ah yes the well-known Baby Boom of the early 1980s.

https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1805533364503343157

[Zinneke]

I like the rhetoric about this being a 'game-changing government' that leaves the country 'transformed'. I've heard it before though and it didn't work out though.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1805759150321696916

When lawyers talk about "game-changing" and "transformation", it means making sure every legal document has the Oxford comma. or allowing ketchup in the civil service canteens.

There'll need to be fresh leadership if the outdated mess of the British constitutional system is to go.

[EastAnglianLefty]

So if Basildon and Billericay does go, then decent chance we don't end up seeing any non-Labour seats until the 2:00 wave. Would be something to see.

Broxbourne is probably likely to stay Tory, as most of the constituency is pretty implacably Tory. Relatively little of it is as Conservative as Billericay, but none of it is as strongly Labour as central Basildon.

[Logical]

Postal vote data from Edinburgh. With the timing of the election in Scotland, around a quarter of the votes cast will be postals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So if Basildon and Billericay does go, then decent chance we don't end up seeing any non-Labour seats until the 2:00 wave. Would be something to see.

Iirc, the first Tory hold in 1997 was Solihull or Guildford around 1am.

[Torrain]

Mate got stuck behind the Labour battle bus headed into Dundee this morning.

Not sure what he was more surprised by - getting stuck in a traffic jam with Rachel Reeves, or the fact Labour are feeling chipper enough to devote a day of shadow cabinet campaigning in the “Yes City”.

[Tintrlvr]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cpAvsFezpgGRxI2lUOP1mPTOMwbHVpC70oQkxWslZgw/edit?usp=drivesdk

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/estimated-declaration-times-general-election-093817984.html

Here they are, as spreadsheet and web article respectively.

We’re getting Basildon & Billericay at 00.15? That could set a particular tone for the evening quite early, if some of the anecdotal reports are to be believed.

And it would make another Basildon moment, but the other way this time!

Also, to add to yours, I'll mention that Harrogate and Knaresborough is the earliest Lib Dem target at a 1.45am estimate. Plus Rishi Sunak is expected to hear his result ahead of Keir Starmer, at 3.45am and 4.15am respectively. For Americans celebrating Independence Day, you're probably too busy for even the big flurry of results starting 2.45am here / 9.45pm Eastern.

We Americans can and will multitask!

Wait a minute. English election results start coming in only in the middle of the night well after midnight?

Others have responded on this, but to be clear the reason is that the British don’t ever report partial results for any constituency; all votes have to have been counted before any can be reported. The U.S. would be the same or even slower if we didn’t do partial results.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I like the rhetoric about this being a 'game-changing government' that leaves the country 'transformed'. I've heard it before though and it didn't work out though.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1805759150321696916

When lawyers talk about "game-changing" and "transformation", it means making sure every legal document has the Oxford comma. or allowing ketchup in the civil service canteens.

There'll need to be fresh leadership if the outdated mess of the British constitutional system is to go.

I really don't think that's a huge priority for British voters this election, but other than that you're broadly right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour are pledged to implement (and seem very keen on) various labour law, social policy and housing/planning policy reforms that could make quite a large difference to how the country functions if implemented successfully. Not been that much media attention on these areas as the media largely finds them boring, but it is stuff that a lot of voters care about.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There are also a fair number of policy changes they're proposing that most voters do not care about, but which are nevertheless likely to have quite thorough-going consequences.

[Duke of York]

I like the rhetoric about this being a 'game-changing government' that leaves the country 'transformed'. I've heard it before though and it didn't work out though.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1805759150321696916

In my opinion i don't think hes going to last a full term with how wishy washy he is and how vague his plans are. It still baffles me he was the best Labour could come with.