United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Farage his speech to attract donors

[TheTide]

But also the unprecedented nature of some of these Tory results could easily make Tory canvassers feel as if the world is ending on them 1, without being dramatically different than what polls are suggesting. After all many of these models have the Tories holding seats with a decline in their vote share of ≥25%.

If the polls are right (i.e. the Tories are down by around 25%) then the Tory vote would fall by considerably more in seats of this kind, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But also the unprecedented nature of some of these Tory results could easily make Tory canvassers feel as if the world is ending on them 1, without being dramatically different than what polls are suggesting. After all many of these models have the Tories holding seats with a decline in their vote share of ≥25%.

If the constituency in question has good canvassing data going back a while and what you're finding is that you're losing half your voters from the last election, then it is going to feel absolutely apocalyptic. If the constituency in question doesn't, because you've never had to worry about a General Election or at least haven't for a quarter of a century, then it will be even worse as you may be in a blind panic as to who is even left.

[afleitch]

But also the unprecedented nature of some of these Tory results could easily make Tory canvassers feel as if the world is ending on them 1, without being dramatically different than what polls are suggesting. After all many of these models have the Tories holding seats with a decline in their vote share of ≥25%.

If the constituency in question has good canvassing data going back a while and what you're finding is that you're losing half your voters from the last election, then it is going to feel absolutely apocalyptic. If the constituency in question doesn't, because you've never had to worry about a General Election or at least haven't for a quarter of a century, then it will be even worse as you may be in a blind panic as to who is even left.

It's a 2015 SLab redux. Labour had never effectively canvassed swathes of Lanarkshire and had no idea it had completely gone. Canvas returns looked better where they weren't as dominant and had data (middle class, new builds, wards that were competitive in the old District Council days etc) but comparative data was non existent in core areas where they collapsed.

That's it's coming back, is because Labour could never truly 'go' because it's a UK party and in Scotland proportional representation preserved local representation. The Tories don't have that (because they've never truly wanted it) which makes this year a potential extinction event.

[Mike88]

We'll see if Farage's statements of "Russia was provoked" have an impact in the Reform's prospects. In several constituencies, Reform candidates have had very controversial positions in the last few days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's a 2015 SLab redux. Labour had never effectively canvassed swathes of Lanarkshire and had no idea it had completely gone. Canvas returns looked better where they weren't as dominant and had data (middle class, new builds, wards that were competitive in the old District Council days etc) but comparative data was non existent in core areas where they collapsed.

Which leaves you just not knowing exactly where you should be doing the work on polling day or who you should be encouraging to use their postal vote and so on. This also applies to places where there used to be activity and data, but not for a while: a lot of Labour's problems in parts of London in the 1980s were linked to this, for instance.

[MaxQue]

It's a 2015 SLab redux. Labour had never effectively canvassed swathes of Lanarkshire and had no idea it had completely gone. Canvas returns looked better where they weren't as dominant and had data (middle class, new builds, wards that were competitive in the old District Council days etc) but comparative data was non existent in core areas where they collapsed.

Which leaves you just not knowing exactly where you should be doing the work on polling day or who you should be encouraging to use their postal vote and so on. This also applies to places where there used to be activity and data, but not for a while: a lot of Labour's problems in parts of London in the 1980s were linked to this, for instance.

In Canada 2011, the BQ machine was carrying by car NDP voters to the voting stations, thinking they were BQ voters.

[oldtimer]

But also the unprecedented nature of some of these Tory results could easily make Tory canvassers feel as if the world is ending on them 1, without being dramatically different than what polls are suggesting. After all many of these models have the Tories holding seats with a decline in their vote share of ≥25%.

If the polls are right (i.e. the Tories are down by around 25%) then the Tory vote would fall by considerably more in seats of this kind, of course.

Lets say the canvassing reports are correct and about 2/3rds of the Tory vote have left.

A seat where the Tories got 70% in 2019 now they would be getting 23% , a 47% drop, and there's your Tory wipeout.

[Blair]

But also the unprecedented nature of some of these Tory results could easily make Tory canvassers feel as if the world is ending on them 1, without being dramatically different than what polls are suggesting. After all many of these models have the Tories holding seats with a decline in their vote share of ≥25%.

If the constituency in question has good canvassing data going back a while and what you're finding is that you're losing half your voters from the last election, then it is going to feel absolutely apocalyptic. If the constituency in question doesn't, because you've never had to worry about a General Election or at least haven't for a quarter of a century, then it will be even worse as you may be in a blind panic as to who is even left.

Especially as people are often not forward enough to say they're not voting for you; often people will say don't want to talk, or will make excuses.

Which means you're even more worried & equally parties can delude themselves; hence the oft heard 'well there's no enthusiasm for Labour'- well no you wouldn't expect to hear it towards Conservative canvassers in doors they're knocking!

The SLab comment made is very true as well; I wasn't around back then to know but at least then it was only a case of having to deal with what 30 odd SLAB MPs who were running. The tories are going to have to try and triage a large number of sitting MPs- the type of people who will not take kindly to having toys taken away and will make calls, have teams they can deploy etc.

At least candidates can be kept in line with a promise of 'well look if you behave we'll give you a better seat in 2029!'. Sitting MPs can be a challenge for a campaign  

[msc]

While we’re talking slightly questionable polling - YouGov seem to be selecting for a rather politically engaged audience:

Also surprising that Stonehenge vandalism is low.

For context (and I had to find my old password to log in and stop lurking for this post!) the YouGov poll was about the election and asked what news stories you had heard during the last few days. In the context of the questions asked, it specifically implied it meant "about the election".

I am enjoying the Euros (mon Scotland) but that didn't feel relevant to the survey asked. No doubt others felt the same.

[oldtimer]

First of this weekend's polls :

R&W Welsh poll.

LAB 46 +1
REF 17 -1
CON 15 -3
PC 10 -1
LD 7 +2
GRN 4 nc

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-welsh-westminster-and-senedd-voting-intention-19-20-june-2024/

I find it headscratching on how Welsh polling numbers this year look a lot like generic UK polling.

[Steve from Lambeth]

It's a 2015 SLab redux.

Image link (for logged-out users)

[brucejoel99]

I see that Johnny Mercer is dealing with coming under severe electoral pressure with all the dignity and decorum that we have come to expect from the man.

https://twitter.com/TPGRoberts/status/1804453316866269189

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Mercer does hang on then it will likely be in vain as he will then presumably be unseated by an Election Court. Utterly bizarre stuff.

[Steve from Lambeth]

If Mercer does hang on then it will likely be in vain as he will then presumably be unseated by an Election Court. Utterly bizarre stuff.

I consider myself fairly well-read on British politics, more than anything other than maybe football, but I don't actually know what an election court is or what it does. Imagine how much more our Americans must be suffering...

[YL]

If Mercer does hang on then it will likely be in vain as he will then presumably be unseated by an Election Court. Utterly bizarre stuff.

I consider myself fairly well-read on British politics, more than anything other than maybe football, but I don't actually know what an election court is or what it does. Imagine how much more our Americans must be suffering...

See what happened in Oldham East & Saddleworth in 2010.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Mercer does hang on then it will likely be in vain as he will then presumably be unseated by an Election Court. Utterly bizarre stuff.

I consider myself fairly well-read on British politics, more than anything other than maybe football, but I don't actually know what an election court is or what it does. Imagine how much more our Americans must be suffering...

An ad hoc court with the powers of the High Court convened to settle the outcome of a formal Election Petition, which can be launched by defeated candidates if they suspect breaches of the Representation of the People Act 1983. There is no jury.

[CumbrianLefty]

First of this weekend's polls :

R&W Welsh poll.

LAB 46 +1
REF 17 -1
CON 15 -3
PC 10 -1
LD 7 +2
GRN 4 nc

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-welsh-westminster-and-senedd-voting-intention-19-20-june-2024/

I find it headscratching on how Welsh polling numbers this year look a lot like generic UK polling.

Its quite likely that Gething's woes are keeping Labour's score a bit lower than it would be otherwise.

[JimJamUK]

LAB 46 +1
REF 17 -1
CON 15 -3
PC 10 -1
LD 7 +2
GRN 4 nc

I find it headscratching on how Welsh polling numbers this year look a lot like generic UK polling.

Its quite likely that Gething's woes are keeping Labour's score a bit lower than it would be otherwise.

Funnily enough, there’s been no change in Labour’s polling since Gething took over. The polls have had Labour underperforming in Wales for most of this Parliament and by late Drakeford it looks like there weren’t many swing voters left who could abandon Labour.

[oldtimer]

Poll No.2

Savanta

LAB 42 +2
CON 19 -2
REF 16 +2
LD 9 -2
GRN 5 +1

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/22/tories-fall-new-low-latest-poll-reform-election/

The Quote that sticks out:

 " Emma Levin, Savanta’s associate director, said: “Our research suggests that we could be watching the collapse of the Conservative Party in real time."

[YL]

Opinium poll

Lab 40 (nc)
Con 20 (-3)
Reform 16 (+2)
Lib Dem 12 (nc)
Green 9 (+2)
SNP 3 (+1)
Plaid 1

20% even with Opinium's methodology...

[oldtimer]

And the final poll expected tonight.

Opinium

LAB 40 n/c
CON 20 -3
REF 16 +2
LD 12 n/c
GRN 9 +2

Average change of the national polls tonight compared to a week ago:

LAB +1
CON -2.5
REF +2
LD -1
GRN +1.5

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Damn even Copium is failing the Tories? They're boned.

In terms of consequence of a high Green vote, we obviously have the two core seats of Bristol C and Brighton P, as well as the two constituency polls from herefordshire and Waveney Valley, but do they have any stretch goals? E.g. their prominent Isle of Wight activist Vix Lowthion is running in IoW E, and it's not like Labour have a huge machine; you also have a few heavy student areas like Sheffield C if they really take off in bobo demographics.

[YL]

Damn even Copium is failing the Tories? They're boned.

In terms of consequence of a high Green vote, we obviously have the two core seats of Bristol C and Brighton P, as well as the two constituency polls from herefordshire and Waveney Valley, but do they have any stretch goals? E.g. their prominent Isle of Wight activist Vix Lowthion is running in IoW E, and it's not like Labour have a huge machine; you also have a few heavy student areas like Sheffield C if they really take off in bobo demographics.

They messed up Sheffield Central with their candidate selection problems.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Damn even Copium is failing the Tories? They're boned.

In terms of consequence of a high Green vote, we obviously have the two core seats of Bristol C and Brighton P, as well as the two constituency polls from herefordshire and Waveney Valley, but do they have any stretch goals? E.g. their prominent Isle of Wight activist Vix Lowthion is running in IoW E, and it's not like Labour have a huge machine; you also have a few heavy student areas like Sheffield C if they really take off in bobo demographics.

They messed up Sheffield Central with their candidate selection problems.

True, and I understand Teal is running an independent campaign, but I do wonder how much that matters to the average Green/Lab swinger?