United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[TheTide]

What sort of a place is Gillingham and Rainham? Is it a remain voting "blue wall" sort of place?

It is estimated to have voted 64-36 Leave. Labour has generally been doing better in more Brexit-inclined areas in local elections etc over the past few years, not least because there's been more room to gain.

[Cassius]

What sort of a place is Gillingham and Rainham? Is it a remain voting "blue wall" sort of place?

Absolutely not, it’s a rather typical Kent coast seat that voted heavily (64% I believe) to leave the EU and was a Labour-held marginal during the Blair years. Such places had a high UKIP vote in 2015 and swung comically far towards the Tories in 2017 and 2019 (although Labour didn’t perform terribly in 2017). Gillingham used to be the home of most of Chatham dockyard, which closed many years ago and left the place with considerable unemployment. Whilst that’s no longer the case, it’s not an especially well-heeled place. Rainham’s a bit posher, but nonetheless the area as a whole is very far away from the stockbroker belt stereotype of ‘the Blue Wall’.

[JimJamUK]

To add to what others have said, it’s basically that bit of the South East that swung well above average in 2010 and saw the Conservative majority go up a further 4% in 2015. As with similar areas in the Midlands, it’s swinging hard against the Conservatives now they are properly unpopular.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Have any polls explored 2nd choices of what's left of Tory voters? I wonder what proportion would be open to voting Reform or whether the hard core of Tory support when its down at 18% are people who would never vote for Farage under any circumstances - in which case Reform will soon hit a ceiling (if it hasn't already).

This would be a pretty good take if the ONLY swing that were occuring among Tory voters were the swing to Reform. But that's not the only swing happening (or even necessarily the dominant one).

So rather than saying that the "18% are people who would never vote for Farage under any circumstances" you could at least as well say that they are people who would never vote for Labour or possibly the Lib Dems under any circumstances - i.e. they are not moderate Tory voters, they are more right-wing than the average Tory vote - and hence MORE likely to swing to Farage than your average Tory.

In reality, I think there is some element of truth to both of these, but neither is totally correct. But I think the latter is a bit more true than the former.

Another observation, I'm surprised at how according to surveys, so few 2019 Tory voters are switching to the Lib Dems. In the past if you were a "One Nation" Tory in the south and you were pissed off with the Tories, and could not bring yourself to vote Labour - you voted Lib Dem. Whatever happened to those people?   

I think a lot of these more moderate One Nation Tory types are in fact voters who have already decided to swing to Labour or the Lib Dems (Lib Dems more so in the south). Many of the ones that truly "could not bring themselves to vote Labour" are the more right-wing people that have already swung to Reform, not necessarily the ones that are still in the Conservative camp.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Ipsos-MORI MRP looks to be one of the more methodologically... er... sound ones and in general the picture painted smells better overall. Where there will always be problems with an MRP (in addition to some of the other issues that can and do arise) are constituencies where there are or were strong independent or local party candidates: Ashfield, for instance. In these cases you are probably better off simply ignoring what is projected. Very intense local campaigns by smaller parties (by which I mean the Liberal Democrats) with the resources for a proper ground game and where there are specific local weaknesses for other parties are also liable to be problematic, though we are not talking of many constituencies there.

Anyway, the national summary figures for the survey are: Labour 43, Con 25, Ref 12, LDem 10, Green 6, SNP 3. The data was collected between the 7th and 12th, but polling patterns have not significantly altered since then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

North Kent is essentially very ordinary, humdrum territory with a weird Gothic undercurrent: Great Expectations, the Mutiny at the Nore and the S.S. Richard Montgomery.* There are a large number of reasonably big towns, there is industrial and there are places where there used to be industry, there is a long military history, there are suburbs and commuter settlements and above all else there are a lot of people with mortgages. It was marginal territory between the two big parties in the Postwar decades, swung a mile to the Right during the Thatcher years, swung back again to welcome the dawn of Mr Tony, and then swung a mile back to the Right after the Financial Crisis and an extra mile for predictable Brexit/Corbyn/etc reasons more recently.

_{*Not familiar with the last there? Look it up for a free nightmare.}

[Cassius]

This is uhhhh..... someone who has given up?
https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1802968304736194856

I see we’ve reached the drunk Burgdorf phase of the Tory untergang.

[oldtimer]

The Ipsos-MORI MRP looks to be one of the more methodologically... er... sound ones and in general the picture painted smells better overall. Where there will always be problems with an MRP (in addition to some of the other issues that can and do arise) are constituencies where there are or were strong independent or local party candidates: Ashfield, for instance. In these cases you are probably better off simply ignoring what is projected. Very intense local campaigns by smaller parties (by which I mean the Liberal Democrats) with the resources for a proper ground game and where there are specific local weaknesses for other parties are also liable to be problematic, though we are not talking of many constituencies there.

Anyway, the national summary figures for the survey are: Labour 43, Con 25, Ref 12, LDem 10, Green 6, SNP 3. The data was collected between the 7th and 12th, but polling patterns have not significantly altered since then.

I always have doubts about MRP polls, especially now that they seem to be in fashion and every pollster likes to do MRP polls rather than proper ones.

The chances of an MRP poll being 100 seats off is currently large, given the Conservatives are on average only 20% above 0 votes with a downward trajectory.

[oldtimer]

This is uhhhh..... someone who has given up?
https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1802968304736194856

I see we’ve reached the drunk Burgdorf phase of the Tory untergang.

Next stop for him might be "Dancing with the Stars with Ed Balls" Burgdorf phase:

"He has the hair, he has the flare, it's Michael Fabricant ! "

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

The Ipsos-MORI MRP looks to be one of the more methodologically... er... sound ones and in general the picture painted smells better overall. Where there will always be problems with an MRP (in addition to some of the other issues that can and do arise) are constituencies where there are or were strong independent or local party candidates: Ashfield, for instance. In these cases you are probably better off simply ignoring what is projected. Very intense local campaigns by smaller parties (by which I mean the Liberal Democrats) with the resources for a proper ground game and where there are specific local weaknesses for other parties are also liable to be problematic, though we are not talking of many constituencies there.

Anyway, the national summary figures for the survey are: Labour 43, Con 25, Ref 12, LDem 10, Green 6, SNP 3. The data was collected between the 7th and 12th, but polling patterns have not significantly altered since then.

The most interesting seat I can find in that poll is Waveney Valley in East Anglia (I think in Suffolk). The topline there is a 2-way race between... The Greens and Reform!!!

Greens: 33%
Reform: 29%
Conservative: 23%  (or in fairness possibly a 3-way race, but still)
Labour: 10%
Lib Dem: 4%

I know that the Greens have actually managed to win some local elections in that general area, despite it being rural, but it's interesting and a bit surprising to see an MRP poll putting them first there (especially with Reform in 2nd).

[beesley]

Sunak was away for the various international summits, but since returning he added: Beverley and Holderness, Grantham and Bourne, South Cambridgeshire, North Devon, Torridge and Tavistock.

Starmer added: Halesowen, Bassetlaw, Calder Valley, Southampton Itchen, Bristol Central, Basingstoke, Reading West and Mid Berkshire, plus a prior visit to Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes which I could not confirm previously.

Davey added: Esher and Walton, Dorking and Horley, South Devon, Yeovil, Eastleigh, Carshalton and Wallington.

[TheTide]

Sunak was away for the various international summits, but since returning he added: Beverley and Holderness, Grantham and Bourne, South Cambridgeshire, North Devon, Torridge and Tavistock.

Starmer added: Halesowen, Bassetlaw, Calder Valley, Southampton Itchen, Bristol Central, Basingstoke, Reading West and Mid Berkshire, plus a prior visit to Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes which I could not confirm previously.

Davey added: Esher and Walton, Dorking and Horley, South Devon, Yeovil, Eastleigh, Carshalton and Wallington.

Grantham and Bourne is the one that stands out, certainly in a symbolic sense. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://twitter.com/PhilRodgers/status/1803112675775504536?t=KieTodV5R6UUjGrGATl...
This guy has helpfully charted all the figures in Cambs in the Ipsos, if people want to quickly see what kind of data is being spat out.

Two interesting three way ties there in the Isle of Ely and St Neots, and there does seem to be a handful of seats with no clear choice for the tactical voter.

Large Reform vote in NE Cambs (i notice it also shows reform second in Truss's seat nearby

I think the Labour vote in cambridge itself may be relatively depressed to Greens

[Flyersfan232]

Sunak was away for the various international summits, but since returning he added: Beverley and Holderness, Grantham and Bourne, South Cambridgeshire, North Devon, Torridge and Tavistock.

Starmer added: Halesowen, Bassetlaw, Calder Valley, Southampton Itchen, Bristol Central, Basingstoke, Reading West and Mid Berkshire, plus a prior visit to Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes which I could not confirm previously.

Davey added: Esher and Walton, Dorking and Horley, South Devon, Yeovil, Eastleigh, Carshalton and Wallington.

Grantham and Bourne is the one that stands out, certainly in a symbolic sense. 

why is farage not included?

[afleitch]

Rapidly turning into that seat in Scotland

https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1803180909140865073

[beesley]

why is farage not included?

1. His campaign has visited far fewer seats than the other party leaders.
2. On all polling and projection so far, it's unlikely Reform are in contention for the seats he has visited. So we are not able to track particular changes and their potential meaning in the same way. They are just seeking to do as well as they can nationally and we'll see where that takes them.
3. If we want to read anything about the specific seats, it is particularly limited with Reform given their ground game is  reportedly notably poorer than other parties. At the same time, the information it does tell us doesn't appear to show anything we didn't already know about the sort of voters he is targeting. So I'm still not convinced doing this exercise is comparably revealing in his case. Perhaps after the election if we have a few surprises I'll report back.

[Dan the Roman]

Have any polls explored 2nd choices of what's left of Tory voters? I wonder what proportion would be open to voting Reform or whether the hard core of Tory support when its down at 18% are people who would never vote for Farage under any circumstances - in which case Reform will soon hit a ceiling (if it hasn't already).

There has suddenly been all this interest among UK pundits in what happened in the 1993 Canadian election and all the obvious comparisons to another Reform Party supplanting the Tories in Canada - but those pundits all seem to ignore one key factor in Canada in 1993 that is missing this year in the UK. Canada's Reform Party was created due to feelings of alienation in the western provinces and they swept most of the seats in BC and Alberta that year. It was very much a regional protest movement. The Reform phenomenon in the UK has no regionalist element - I guess the equivalent would be if Reform UK had started out as a party protesting how the Midlands were being mistreated by Westminster and swept every single Tory seat in the midlands...

Another observation, I'm surprised at how according to surveys, so few 2019 Tory voters are switching to the Lib Dems. In the past if you were a "One Nation" Tory in the south and you were pissed off with the Tories, and could not bring yourself to vote Labour - you voted Lib Dem. Whatever happened to those people?   

Reform probably has a ceiling merely from the fact that Farage is still viewed extremely negatively by an overwhelming majority of voters(Yougov had him around 27-72 recently), and their manifesto launch has reinforced the wider problem that it is unclear what precisely they are trying to do.

It is definitely not to seriously challenge Labour because their Manifesto shows zero interest in governance, while Farage's behavior shows a far greater interest in being treated as if he is important(whining about his Yougov polling numbers) than in policy or party. Nor is it offering a future vision for the British Right as it appears even more boomer focused than the Tories.

Regarding the Liberal Democrats, they are far less of a distinct ideological party than they were as recently as 2019. And whether they are a second choice for Conservative voters over Labour now has far more to do with local conditions than any ideological or policy appeal.

After vacillating as to whether they wanted to be Labour's Left(Iraq) or Right(Orange Book/Coalition) the Liberal Democrats somewhat unintentionally ended up in a situation where they are neither. The presence of the Greens means they cannot properly exploit Labour's left flank, yet at the same time their decision to go-all-out in embracing Revoke over a Second Referendum in 2019 branded them as the party of the most cosmopolitan elements in the country. A demographic which is not particularly popular anywhere.

Where Liberal Democrats have a strong local identity harkening back to the early 2000s they are doing incredibly well in atomizing the Conservative vote. Where the Liberal Democrats are presenting themselves as representatives of a national party they are struggling to secure Tory switchers who probably prefer Starmer as a more One Nation option than the Liberal Democrats.

In that sense I don't it is fully appreciated(albeit it was recognized in the Liberals' own autopsy) how much damage the embrace of "Revoke" and the 2019 campaign did to them as a brand, largely because too many viewed it through the lens of Brexit. And the damage has little to do with Brexit and more to do with how the irresponsibility with which Swinson and co behaved convinced many One Nation Tories that the Liberal Democrats were less a responsible party than akin to the Greens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is absolutely disgraceful. It is also obviously rather stupid for other reasons and, I suppose, interesting for the level of panic implied.

[MaxQue]

This is absolutely disgraceful. It is also obviously rather stupid for other reasons and, I suppose, interesting for the level of panic implied.

Shockingly, this is not even the most disgraceful thing Longhi did since he got elected as an MP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/PhilRodgers/status/1803112675775504536?t=KieTodV5R6UUjGrGATl...
This guy has helpfully charted all the figures in Cambs in the Ipsos, if people want to quickly see what kind of data is being spat out.

Two interesting three way ties there in the Isle of Ely and St Neots, and there does seem to be a handful of seats with no clear choice for the tactical voter.

Large Reform vote in NE Cambs (i notice it also shows reform second in Truss's seat nearby

I think the Labour vote in cambridge itself may be relatively depressed to Greens

It would be quite symbolically powerful if Labour won Huntingdon.

[brucejoel99]

https://x.com/PhilRodgers/status/1803112675775504536?t=KieTodV5R6UUjGrGATlsZA&s=19

This guy has helpfully charted all the figures in Cambs in the Ipsos, if people want to quickly see what kind of data is being spat out.

Two interesting three way ties there in the Isle of Ely and St Neots, and there does seem to be a handful of seats with no clear choice for the tactical voter.

Large Reform vote in NE Cambs (i notice it also shows reform second in Truss's seat nearby

I think the Labour vote in cambridge itself may be relatively depressed to Greens

It would be quite symbolically powerful if Labour won Huntingdon.

https://twitter.com/ACarpenDigital/status/1801507234758770761

Alex Bulat – Huntingdon

The idea of Labour winning Huntingdon, where John Major racked up a 36,000 majority in 1992 – and where the Tories hold a near-20,000 advantage – might seem absurd. But boundary changes, a new out-of-town Tory candidate and two prominent local Conservatives standing for Reform and as an independent mean Labour's Alex Bulat – a Romanian-born social scientist with degrees from UCL and the universities of Cambridge and Sussex – could pull off an unlikely victory.

The Tories really aren't in 1997 anymore now, what with a Labour Mayor & an abundance of Lib Dem & Labour borough & county councillors, one of whom is the Labour PPC herself.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://x.com/PhilRodgers/status/1803112675775504536?t=KieTodV5R6UUjGrGATlsZA&s=19

This guy has helpfully charted all the figures in Cambs in the Ipsos, if people want to quickly see what kind of data is being spat out.

Two interesting three way ties there in the Isle of Ely and St Neots, and there does seem to be a handful of seats with no clear choice for the tactical voter.

Large Reform vote in NE Cambs (i notice it also shows reform second in Truss's seat nearby

I think the Labour vote in cambridge itself may be relatively depressed to Greens

It would be quite symbolically powerful if Labour won Huntingdon.

https://twitter.com/ACarpenDigital/status/1801507234758770761

Alex Bulat – Huntingdon

The idea of Labour winning Huntingdon, where John Major racked up a 36,000 majority in 1992 – and where the Tories hold a near-20,000 advantage – might seem absurd. But boundary changes, a new out-of-town Tory candidate and two prominent local Conservatives standing for Reform and as an independent mean Labour's Alex Bulat – a Romanian-born social scientist with degrees from UCL and the universities of Cambridge and Sussex – could pull off an unlikely victory.

The Tories really aren't in 1997 anymore now, what with a Labour Mayor & an abundance of Lib Dem & Labour borough & county councillors, one of whom is the Labour PPC herself.

If Alex Bulat becomes MP she should be among the most interesting members among her intake.

[MaxQue]

https://x.com/PhilRodgers/status/1803112675775504536?t=KieTodV5R6UUjGrGATlsZA&s=19

This guy has helpfully charted all the figures in Cambs in the Ipsos, if people want to quickly see what kind of data is being spat out.

Two interesting three way ties there in the Isle of Ely and St Neots, and there does seem to be a handful of seats with no clear choice for the tactical voter.

Large Reform vote in NE Cambs (i notice it also shows reform second in Truss's seat nearby

I think the Labour vote in cambridge itself may be relatively depressed to Greens

It would be quite symbolically powerful if Labour won Huntingdon.

https://twitter.com/ACarpenDigital/status/1801507234758770761

Alex Bulat – Huntingdon

The idea of Labour winning Huntingdon, where John Major racked up a 36,000 majority in 1992 – and where the Tories hold a near-20,000 advantage – might seem absurd. But boundary changes, a new out-of-town Tory candidate and two prominent local Conservatives standing for Reform and as an independent mean Labour's Alex Bulat – a Romanian-born social scientist with degrees from UCL and the universities of Cambridge and Sussex – could pull off an unlikely victory.

The Tories really aren't in 1997 anymore now, what with a Labour Mayor & an abundance of Lib Dem & Labour borough & county councillors, one of whom is the Labour PPC herself.

If Alex Bulat becomes MP he should be among the most interesting members among his intake.

He?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Alex Bulat becomes MP he should be among the most interesting members among his intake.

He?

Sorry, I made a shorthand assumption that the Alex was, in absence of any information to the contrary, a he. Because most people who go by simply Alex are a he.
That was inaccurate in this case. I'll edit the post accordingly.
That doesn't actually negate anything I'm saying either way. Save your recreational outrage, if you have any, for other targets, please.

[adma]

I wonder how Huntingdon would have gone in '97 were it not for John Major.  (No, I'm not saying it would have been a Labour win.  At best, marginal, I suspect)