United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[RBH]

I was thinking "which party is gonna finish last in the most seats" (probably the party finishing 5th the most in the seats with only 5 candidates) and I decided to figure out the composition of a Bizarro-Parliament made up of the candidates who finished last in 2019..

then I found out that the Greens were way ahead in that..

the party standings are

Green Party 231
Independent 129
Brexit 53, Lib Dems 33, UKIP 30
Christian Peoples Alliance 18, Labour 16, Official Monster Raving Loony 16, Social Democratic 16, Liberal 14, Yorkshire 12

5 seats for Advance Together, Animal Welfare Party, Aontu, Libertarian

4 seats for Workers Revolutionary Party

3 seats for Alliance for Green Socialism, English Democrats, Renew, Socialist Equality, Justice and Anti-Corruption, Women's Equality

2 seats for Communist League, Communities United, Gwlad Gwlad, Plaid Cymru, Scottish Family Party, SDLP, North East, Peace, Socialist Party of GB, Ulster Unionist, Yeshua

1 seat for Alliance (NI), BNP, Christian Party, Church of the Militant Elvis, Conservative (one of their doomed Northern Ireland candidates), Cumbria First, Motherworld, Patria, Psychadelic Movement, Rebooting Democracy, Shropshire Party, Socialist Labour, Best for Luton, Citizens Movement, Common People, Constitution and Reform, Universal Good, Veterans and People

All the credit to Excel for having a way for me to just figure out which candidate finished last in the UK spreadsheet of results by candidate (sort results by %, and then ask true/false for 'does this candidate have more votes than the candidate above them, which means all the last place finishers are false).. so I somehow didn't spend way way too much time on that.. just too much time. And somebody probably figured out this out in December 2019

Anyways... Green's probably retain their minority government in the bizarro-parliament

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Warning about every poll etc but hilarious that the Tories are running a presidential campaign around someone so disliked

I'm curious what a "presidential" campaign means in a UK context. How exactly would the Tory campaign look any different than it is now if they weren't running one? Obviously you need to promote your leader, but would it be more policy-based rather than focusing on Rishi doing lots of appearances and meeting with voters in different constituencies?

It's often quite subtle.

Before they called the election the Conservatives were getting their MPs to issue leaflets with Sunak's face all over it; a lot of their branding was about his plan, and they keep saying how the election is a choice between 'Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer' rather than 'a choice between Labour and the Conservatives'.

Previous campaigns have used the Chancellor a lot; Labour ofc did this with Brown in 1997 & 2005 as he was very popular with a certain type of voter. It's been remarkable how absent Hunt is; but he's both defending a marginal & he's still unpopular from his days as health secretary while also just not being a political bruiser.

Hunt is also a pretty bad name to put up on billboards or posters, rather liable to targetted graffiti.

[Pericles]

I tried to have a rough estimate at Reform target seats by looking at where the average of the Brexit Party vote in the 2019 EU elections and the 2015 UKIP vote was the highest, and then only including those where the Labour vote was low enough for that increase to not flip the seat to Labour (roughly using 20% in 2019 as a benchmark).

Clacton obviously is the top target, with the 'average' as 51.0% and a 15.6% Labour vote. Next is Boston and Skegness, with a 45% average and a 15.5% Labour vote. Tice is running there.

Castle Point has a 45% average and 17% Labour vote. The next few had higher Labour votes, so Sittingbourne and Sheppey would be my next guess with a 39% average and 21% Labour vote. Mark Francois' seat in Rayleigh and Wickford could be a target, but maybe his profile helps him. South Holland and the Deepings is also a high scoring seat. It would be ironic if one of the few Reform seats was a London seat, as Hornchurch and Upminster has a 37% average and a relatively low Labour vote at 23%. Then, the new Brigg and Immingham seat (formerly Cleethorpes) had a 36% average and a 20% Labour vote.

Ashfield is a unique seat as their only current seat, but Labour's vote is much higher here. I doubt that Reform will be able to take votes off Labour to actually win here or in other 'Red Wall' seats where the Brexit Party did well in the 2019 general.

If the Reform vote is actually higher than the Conservative vote then more seats likely open up. If it is just a few points behind, then there are a few options for Nigel Farage to have some company in Parliament.  

[Kalimantan]

Warning about every poll etc but hilarious that the Tories are running a presidential campaign around someone so disliked

I'm curious what a "presidential" campaign means in a UK context. How exactly would the Tory campaign look any different than it is now if they weren't running one? Obviously you need to promote your leader, but would it be more policy-based rather than focusing on Rishi doing lots of appearances and meeting with voters in different constituencies?

It's often quite subtle.

Before they called the election the Conservatives were getting their MPs to issue leaflets with Sunak's face all over it; a lot of their branding was about his plan, and they keep saying how the election is a choice between 'Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer' rather than 'a choice between Labour and the Conservatives'.

Previous campaigns have used the Chancellor a lot; Labour ofc did this with Brown in 1997 & 2005 as he was very popular with a certain type of voter. It's been remarkable how absent Hunt is; but he's both defending a marginal & he's still unpopular from his days as health secretary while also just not being a political bruiser.

Hunt is also a pretty bad name to put up on billboards or posters, rather liable to targetted graffiti.

You'll enjoy this

https://youtu.be/6KJo-vaOrP4?si=59XC87w9tXdCBJfr

[Cassius]

Obviously it doesn’t matter and nobody cares, but Starmer just rubbished the Tory manifesto as ‘a sort of Jeremy Corbyn style manifesto where anything you want can go in it, and none of it is costed’, which is quite an… audacious… line to take, given that he stood on that manifesto in 2019 and would’ve signed off on it as a key member of the Labour shadow cabinet at the time.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1800426040558526595?s=46

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1800492280593477713

Unlike yesterday where I listed the Lib Dems' manifesto highlights myself, I can just post this here tweet. At last, the Sunak administration has done something to reward my work.

Supposedly, one of the more surprising policies that was not explicitly mentioned in text, but featured in the Tory manifesto's costings, is to cut spending on developing new defence technology and equipment, which I know will go down brilliantly in Pompey North...

[DL]

https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1800426040558526595?s=46

So much for the hysterical memes about Muslims deserting Labourover Gaza

[EastAnglianLefty]

Even the best-designed polling of minorities is best taken with a pinch of salt, and this is Savanta.

[Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1800426040558526595?s=46

So much for the hysterical memes about Muslims deserting Labourover Gaza

Starmer has been supporting a ceasefire for a long time now. Also, UK Muslims are hardly big fans of the Tories' record in office.
That being said, polling smaller groups could be quite difficult so I dunno how seriously I want to take this poll.

[DL]

It’s not such a small poll of Muslims. The sample size is over 1,000. I’m not surprised by the results. I always thought it was a bit racist to suggest that Muslim voters are bunch of automatons who only vote on the single issue of Gaza (especially given that less than 1% of UK Muslims are Palestinian), in any case given Starmer is calling for a ceasefire it’s not clear what more anyone could want.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls of minorities are always difficult affairs (in this case there are multiple ethnicities, multiple levels of practice and so on, and all of this has an impact on where people live etc) and it is also the case that there has been friction between substantial elements of the Muslim community and Labour for a while over various policies, and it seems that tensions over the Middle East have triggered their release in addition to the other stuff.

[DL]

I know some have speculated that some Muslims don’t like how Labour is very pro-LGBTQ but where can they go? The most anti-LGBTQ party is Reform which is also totally Islamophobic

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course that poll should be treated with massive caution, but it has always been credible that the local election results last month overstated the likely degree of Muslim backlash against Labour in a GE. At least some of the sitting MPs will be widely considered to be "sound" over Israel/Palestine, for a start.

I think that the new Batley/Dewsbury seat is clearly the likeliest to go to a "Gaza Independent" - but even that is currently far from certain.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

I know some have speculated that some Muslims don’t like how Labour is very pro-LGBTQ but where can they go? The most anti-LGBTQ party is Reform which is also totally Islamophobic

I've been saying for a long time that LGBTQ people are really lucky that the far right and the political Islam really hate each other.

[DL]

The only political “force” in Britain (if you can call it that) which combines hatred of LGBTQ people with fanatical support for Hamas is named George Galloway…and he has no real party and close to zero chance of winning Rochdale in the general election

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Teasers from another poll which is supposed to be released later today:

https://twitter.com/RestIsPolitics/status/1800165476259057940

🔴 Labour ➡️ The Greens?🌳🤔

Labour seems to be losing some of its younger voters (ages 18-34) to the Green Party, who are up by 5️⃣ points with that age group this week 🟢📈

For all the details from our latest The Rest Is Politics X JLP poll, tune into tomorrow’s podcast to find out more...

https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1800148982020317451

Brutal @JLPartnersPolls
 latest on the Tory 2019 vote bleeding out

20 per cent to Reform, 15 per cent to Labour.

Just 4 in 10 staying with Conservatives.

[Harlow]

Lib Dem manifesto surge, and Reform comes ever closer to overtaking the Tories.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1800558618254942681

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More likely is just a bad sample. Happens.

[YL]

Poll of Hartlepool by We Think (formerly known as Omnisis)

Lab 58
Reform 23
Con 10
Lib Dem 6
Green 2

What's the record vote share change between a by-election and the following General?

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

More likely is just a bad sample. Happens.

To the degree it is true though, I would think an increase in LibDem support is not really good for the Conservatives though, because a lot of it will probably be tactical voting in the south/south-east. Even though Labour declines, it probably would be roughly a wash in terms of seat count.

[afleitch]

More likely is just a bad sample. Happens.

Reactive pollster is reactive.

Again, there's no reason for people really changing their minds over a manifesto launch and photo ops at Jeremy Thorpe Park as much as they are fun. Though I suspect had Davies been at the first leadership debate the last week would have been somewhat different.
 

[afleitch]

More likely is just a bad sample. Happens.

To the degree it is true though, I would think an increase in LibDem support is not really good for the Conservatives though, because a lot of it will probably be tactical voting in the south/south-east. Even though Labour declines, it probably would be roughly a wash in terms of seat count.

Labour gor a chonky majority on a 36% share and the Tories a modest one on a 37% share. And that was with the opposition not far behind.

Some Labour weakening in national share is to be expected with the net effect of that likely to be in their own favour.

[Lumine]

The implication, I think, is that the Lib Dems would be surging - if they actually are - as a result of tactical voting against the Conservatives. Too early to tell if this is just a blip of course.

[JimJamUK]

What's the record vote share change between a by-election and the following General?

Depends if you count uncontested?