United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[WD]

It’s a wrap

[afleitch]

What YouGov are doing is a polling gamble. It's effectively surveying the public, then running it through their MRP model. That takes the 'hand off the scales' which might be useful in better dealing with turnout modelling and possibly particularly the allocation of 'don't knows'.

Problem is it still uses the same 'sample' of highly, self engaged respondents. Not enough 'meh' in polling samples, if there is error in the polls, is likely to be the main cause.

[Tintrlvr]

New YouGov Westminster VI poll (with the new MRP-style methodology) :

• Lab: 40%
• Con: 19%
• Reform UK: 17%
• Lib Dem: 10%
• Green: 7%
• SNP: 3%

This puts the Tories in third on ElectoralCalculus. The Reform seats seem to be based on previous strong independents/minor parties (Ashfield and Rochdale, the outlier is Torbay) rather than actual Reform strength.

LAB: 490
LIB: 63
CON: 56
SNP: 14
PC: 4
REF: 3
GRN: 2

[Alcibiades]

This puts the Tories in third on ElectoralCalculus. The Reform seats seem to be based on previous strong independents/minor parties (Ashfield and Rochdale, the outlier is Torbay) rather than actual Reform strength.

Yes, the models seem incapable of dealing with Reform. The most realistic forecasts would probably be obtained by factoring in EU referendum vote (and perhaps 2015 UKIP support, though as others have already said in this thread, that link is more fraught that one might initially expect), which I don't think they do.

Generally, to find Reform's best bets you'd probably be looking at seats which massively voted for both the Tories in 2019 and for Leave (the former almost always implies the latter, though the latter by no means necessarily the former), and which perhaps had enough Labour strength in 1997/2001 that Labour could once again get enough votes to allow Reform to sneak through the middle in something of a three-way race. Such seats are of course mainly found in the east of England, particularly Essex and Lincolnshire.

Ashfield is not like this, but it is one of the most idiosyncratic contests at this election; though I don't think there's any reason to suppose that Anderson is anything like the favourite at the moment.

[oldtimer]

Apparently the Tory membership in Basildon & Billericay has been presented with a “shortlist” of one: outgoing North West Durham MP and current party Chairman Ric Holden.

Basildon is on the UKIP coast.

In 2015 the Tories had a 7000 majority over UKIP.
Leave got 69% there.

[Blair]

I really struggle to see how Reform will get that high a number nationally with their campaign infrastructure; UKIP only managed 12% in 2015 when they had iirc a base of councillors, a presence in various areas & a proven record in by elections

[oldtimer]

Finally got a Welsh Yougov poll (has been a very reliable proxy for England in the past):

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Results_BarnCymru_GE2024_FirstCall_W.pdf

Changes:

Lab: +5
Con:-18
LD: -1
Green: +3
Ref: +8

Applied nationally it gives:

Lab: 38
Con: 27
LD: 11
Ref: 10
Green: 6

Labour and Reform are surprisingly low and the Conservatives higher than ought to be.

The political crisis for Welsh Labour hasn't gotten much coverage, but I wonder if it produces weird results in Wales.

Welsh Labour today lost a vote of no confidence in the Welsh Assembly.

[Alcibiades]

Finally got a Welsh Yougov poll (has been a very reliable proxy for England in the past):

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Results_BarnCymru_GE2024_FirstCall_W.pdf

Changes:

Lab: +5
Con:-18
LD: -1
Green: +3
Ref: +8

Applied nationally it gives:

Lab: 38
Con: 27
LD: 11
Ref: 10
Green: 6

Labour and Reform are surprisingly low and the Conservatives higher than ought to be.

The political crisis for Welsh Labour hasn't gotten much coverage, but I wonder if it produces weird results in Wales.

Welsh Labour today lost a vote of no confidence in the Welsh Assembly.

For various reasons, Labour held up better in Wales than in England at the last election, so it's absolutely not a surprise that there would be a smaller swing towards them there this time.

[beesley]

I liked Ed Davey's performance in the post-debate interviews. He has a great sense of humor.

Yeah, I didn’t think much of his comedy roadshow at first, but it seems like an effort to stand out against the two haughty, thin-skinned men who lead the major parties. Farage (who was often quite testy in previous campaigns) seems to be going for a similar approach.

Same here. It's also a way to get him attention in this era of social media metrics and disinterested journalism.

[beesley]

Basildon is on the UKIP coast.

In 2015 the Tories had a 7000 majority over UKIP.
Leave got 69% there.

If you don't mind my being slightly pedantic, the seat whose figures you refer to was not this one, but the neighbouring South Basildon and East Thurrock. The seat you mention was a bit better for the Conservatives and not so good for Labour or UKIP.

[JimJamUK]

The latest YouGov poll has 34% of 2019 Conservative voters going Reform compared to only 2% of 2019 Labour voters. There will be a small proportion of the electorate who are Ref > Lab > Con voters (basically people who really dislike the Conservatives either historically or specifically this government) but overall Reform achieving anything like their current polling would do substantial harm to the Conservatives ability to win the election (or even cost Labour a majority).

[oldtimer]

Finally got a Welsh Yougov poll (has been a very reliable proxy for England in the past):

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Results_BarnCymru_GE2024_FirstCall_W.pdf

Changes:

Lab: +5
Con:-18
LD: -1
Green: +3
Ref: +8

Applied nationally it gives:

Lab: 38
Con: 27
LD: 11
Ref: 10
Green: 6

Labour and Reform are surprisingly low and the Conservatives higher than ought to be.

The political crisis for Welsh Labour hasn't gotten much coverage, but I wonder if it produces weird results in Wales.

Welsh Labour today lost a vote of no confidence in the Welsh Assembly.

For various reasons, Labour held up better in Wales than in England at the last election, so it's absolutely not a surprise that there would be a smaller swing towards them there this time.

The predicted swings using Wales have been more accurate than the UK wide predicted swings for many elections in the past.

For Example in 2019 the last Welsh Yougov polls showed these changes:

LAB: -9
CON: 0
LD: 0
GRN: +1
BRX: +3 (over UKIP)

Applied nationally:

LAB: 32 (got 33)
CON: 43 (got 45)
LD: 8 (got 11)
BRX: 5 (got 2)
GRN: 3 (got 3)

So it suggested that the swing to the Conservatives was going to be at the high end of estimates and the LD spinning wheels, it overestimated Brexit because they stood in far more seats in Wales than England.

Same story in 2017, using the Welsh Yougov you could predict that Labour was going to be only slightly behind the Tories at 44-40 (actual result 43-41).

[Torrain]

Just to follow up on beesley's point, it looks to me like the Lib Dem strategy is to grab attention, and then pivot to Davey's biography and their big push for social care reform.

Davey's had the most comprehensive experience with social care of any politician of my lifetime (father dying when he was five, being a young carer for his mother until her death from cancer when he was 15, and now involved in round the clock care for his own disabled son, and wife with MS), and it's hard to think of a better messenger for that campaign.

I imagine we'll see a lot more like this from them:

[oldtimer]

To sum up, the first Welsh Yougov is pointing to the universe of Savanta and JL Partners polling.

A Labour lead at the low end, but a still comfortable 100 majority.

The unknown is if that poll is affected by the Welsh political crisis.

[Germany1994]

To sum up, the first Welsh Yougov is pointing to the universe of Savanta and JL Partners polling.

A Labour lead and the low end, but a still comfortable 100 majority.

The unknown is if that poll is affected by the Welsh political crisis.

The unknown is rather if Wales is really and forever a good indicator of Britain as a whole. Just because they were lucky a few times in the past doesn´t mean they´ll be right this time as well.

EDIT: Take it with a grain of salt but ElectoralCalculus also only sees a slight swing in Wales despite Labour winning a landslide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Swings in Wales have historically tended to be a little lower than in Great Britain as a whole, and ones that go the wrong way haven't been entirely uncommon. There have been exceptions (1987 is the famous one: local boy effect for Kinnock) but that has been the usual pattern. Ructions at the Assembly/Senedd have not had any noticeable impact on General Election results in the past, which isn't surprising as there's much less interest in the former than the latter.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Interesting news from Tory selection in Newcastle-under-Lyme. Dan Jellyman was placed on a shortlist of one, but after the selection meeting he was not chosen. So no candidate, and no shortlist right now (deadline in less than 48 hours).

[YL]

David Duguid, outgoing Tory MP for Banff & Buchan, dropped at the last minute as candidate for the replacement constituency, apparently because of ill health:

https://twitter.com/david_duguid/status/1798449287753576800

[Torrain]

Duguid had some pretty serious spinal surgery, along with a nosocomial infection, and wasn't expected to be able to campaign in-person.

Douglas Ross had pretty warm words for him last week, and his other constituency neighbour, Andrew Bowie has posted rather pointedly about campaigning with him soon, so there's a suggestion this might have come from further up the chain.

There have been a couple of dog-whistle campaigns in marginals over the past few cycles, and the party probably panicked. Memory of Ian Blackford running leaflets invoking Charles Kennedy's struggles with alcoholism loom long in the memory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting news from Tory selection in Newcastle-under-Lyme. Dan Jellyman was placed on a shortlist of one, but after the selection meeting he was not chosen. So no candidate, and no shortlist right now (deadline in less than 48 hours).

Given that they ought to have known there was a possibility of a vacancy there, that is borderline unbelievable.

[LabourJersey]

Interesting news from Tory selection in Newcastle-under-Lyme. Dan Jellyman was placed on a shortlist of one, but after the selection meeting he was not chosen. So no candidate, and no shortlist right now (deadline in less than 48 hours).

Given that they ought to have known there was a possibility of a vacancy there, that is borderline unbelievable.

What does the local Tory party do here? Are they logistically able to make a selection between now and 4pm Friday?

[Philly D.]

It becomes a bit more believable when your incumbent only announces he's stepping down 10 days after the election announcement...

I suspect we will have at least one constituency without a Tory candidate due to some basic oversight or invalid signature. The Tories are lucky only 10 signatures are needed for candidacy -- in Canada in this situation they would be utterly cooked.

[LabourJersey]

It becomes a bit more believable when your incumbent only announces he's stepping down 10 days after the election announcement...

I suspect we will have at least one constituency without a Tory candidate due to some basic oversight or invalid signature. The Tories are lucky only 10 signatures are needed for candidacy -- in Canada in this situation they would be utterly cooked.

But isn't the point of shortlist for every constituency that parties don't have to deal with this situation?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

it would be amazing to see this result come to pass. Not sure it will though. How many candidates does Reform have at this point?