United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[LAB-LIB]

Starmer looking and sounding like a PM.

[Blair]

I wonder what the Tories learnt from their local election data

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are the Tories barred from changing leaders after the election is called?

No, but obviously the idea is insane.

Just seeing Sunak he might actually sink the boat deeper. Is there no one who can at least stablise the situation?

There is one last hope...

[Cassius]

John Swinney huffing on the world’s smallest set of bagpipes about the evil UK government having the temerity to call an election during tHe ScOtTiSh sUmMeR HoLiDAyS.

[JimJamUK]

Might need some help but would be better than a Kuenssberg snooze fest.

Then she can spend it like 2017 where she just spouted various rumours which were mostly incorrect, during which it was clear David Dimbleby thought she was an attention seeker and loser

She was so certain on election night that Anna Soubry had lost that it was being repeated as fact the following week by other people.

[JimJamUK]

Nah, no need. We are all going to be watching the copium/doom-mongering hilarity that will be Sky News's coverage of a Labour landslide.

Sky News are if anything higher quality and marginally more pro-Labour/not pro-Tory than the BBC.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, time to get this thing going.




I'm starting my expectations at the benchmark of approximately (so number are neater): 420 Labour, 140 Conservative, 50 Lib-Dem, 16 SNP, 3 Plaid, 3 Others including the Speaker, and 18 obviously from Northern Ireland. I have a rough list, but I would prefer not to go into seat-by-seat detail at this moment.

Things obviously can and will change, and this is a benchmark of where I think things will end based on the present, not where they are now. If dissatisfied Tory voters who previously stated Reform simply in protest or failed to respond to polls are not activated by a campaign, then things could get worse for the Conservatives. They could get exceptionally worse if the vote is universally split down the middle, allowing Labour and the Lib-Dems to win many more seats with 30% of the vote. Though the fact Sunak is jumping now suggests they presently don't expect such a split.

The voters know the Lib-Dem targets, and so does their organization - at least so much I could gleam from statements. Labour and Lib-Dem voters have been behaving tactically locally when each others targets are well understood. If that continues to be relevant outside the targets then things may get better for the Lib-Dems, or depending on their campaign, things could get worse.

The SNP have issues. I have repeated for a while my belief that the core unionist vote (aka not all of Labours current supporters, but some along with the Tories and Lib-Dems) are likely to vote tactically - after knowing whose most likely to win where. There is evidence from past results. The Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-Election is a great example of this in action, albeit perhaps to an extreme extent. If that extreme in replicated in the GE than the SNP could suffer a far greater defeat, a reverse of 2015. Alternatively, like the Tories, if they convince fence-sitters to return then things could be a bit better. And if they recover, then things obviously can turn in their favor.

Finally, the Gaza factor. Right now there is no ticket explicitly standing on a platform of an immediate ceasefire and nothing else, like the independent lists in the local elections. There is Galloway but he turns off everyone who isn't Muslim, and he is more of a By-Election disrupter than GE MP. If the Greens try to be this ticket then I think they actually lose rather than gain targets, given their 2023 shire gains and stated targets, as well as limited long-term connections to the northern Muslim communities. The universities being out and dispersing (diluting) the student vote limits any potential for surprises in those Labour seats. Maybe a few independents stand and in specific Muslim-heavy seats they could have a chance versus Labour, but that will depend on the campaign. So right now their expected impact is nill.

[MABA 2020]

Okay this surprised me, I haven't been paying the closet attention recently and I assumed we were still looking at the end of the year?

[Torrain]

Okay this surprised me, I haven't been paying the closet attention recently and I assumed we were still looking at the end of the year?

Don’t beat yourself up about it, from the reactions in SW1 today, basically everyone else did too…

[Battista Minola 1616]

This is the beginning of the end. And what a beginning... from what I read it could not have been any worse.

[LAB-LIB]

Nah, no need. We are all going to be watching the copium/doom-mongering hilarity that will be Sky News's coverage of a Labour landslide.

Sky News are if anything higher quality and marginally more pro-Labour/not pro-Tory than the BBC.

Beth Rigby and Sophy Ridge are two of the best in the business. I like Sam Coates too.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Things Can Only Get Wetter

[Cassius]

One possible reason (amongst others) for going now and for the sudden announcement (let’s not call it snap) is to avoid giving Reform time to get a proper campaign together and candidates in place across the country. Won’t change the end result, but a more hastily organised Reform effort might help save the furniture in some places.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

One possible reason (amongst others) for going now and for the sudden announcement (let’s not call it snap) is to avoid giving Reform time to get a proper campaign together and candidates in place across the country. Won’t change the end result, but a more hastily organised Reform effort might help save the furniture in some places.

Yes, and they have suffered a small decline in the polls recently. I imagine the aim is to avoid the existential threat represented by strong Reform results.

[LAB-LIB]

https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1793328744196722928
Hunt to stand again in Goldaming and Ash.

[Blair]

A question; will the ‘purdah’ rules which mean that the Government can’t act politically during a GE mean that deportation flights to Rwanda can’t happen?

There’s a very good argument they’re a political act in theory

[Lumine]

Well! Here's hoping an electoral debacle actually pushes the Lib Dems to get second place in seats.

After the last few years the Conservatives don't even deserve to be the official opposition.

[TheTide]

Obviously, with the announcement taking most by surprise, there are a lot of things that haven't really been thought much about as yet. One thing is that there will likely be a flurry of retirement announcements over the coming days. The number of announced Tory retirements, for example, is somewhere in the 60s but an eventual number of 100 or more has been widely quoted.

[Oryxslayer]

Hunt to stand again in Goldaming and Ash.

Still a Lib-Dem target. Surrey's full of Tory scalps the Lib-Dems have their eyes one - there is a reason why Davey ran over to Surrey Heath to make his response to Sunak's announcement.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

One possible reason (amongst others) for going now and for the sudden announcement (let’s not call it snap) is to avoid giving Reform time to get a proper campaign together and candidates in place across the country. Won’t change the end result, but a more hastily organised Reform effort might help save the furniture in some places.

See: the previously posted video about Robert Muldoon drunkenly calling a snap election in New Zealand in 1984

A reminder of a past July snap election.

See also: the results in said election.

And a side note, I would also agree that it isn’t really a snap election at this point.

[LAB-LIB]

Hunt to stand again in Goldaming and Ash.

Still a Lib-Dem target. Surrey's full of Tory scalps the Lib-Dems have their eyes one - there is a reason why Davey ran over to Surrey Heath to make his response to Sunak's announcement.

Oh he's in serious danger!

[Boobs]

The date of the election was chosen to ensure nosy Americans were too drunk and tired to butt  in on election discussions, right? Rishi declares his independence from US election twitters.

[Logical]

[Silent Hunter]

It's second half of the year... by four days.

[MABA 2020]

Okay this surprised me, I haven't been paying the closet attention recently and I assumed we were still looking at the end of the year?

Don’t beat yourself up about it, from the reactions in SW1 today, basically everyone else did too…

Yeah I now see from the reactions that this was another puzzling out of left field decision from Sunak.

Though hey I'm pretty happy about it, summer election lets go!