United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[oldtimer]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

For all one knows, we might have a *real* 1993 Canadian situation where *SNP* is the official opposition.  (That is, if they were operating on 2015 near-clean-sweep fumes.  Which they aren't.)

I can’t see the SNP becoming official opposition.

Yeah, if anything, I think the MRP has them with too many seats. Just off the cuff, I’m thinking they’ll get more like 30 than 40. I also think that the Lib Dems have a good shot at getting more seats than the SNP.

The over/under on the Tories and 100 seats is a good question though. I don’t doubt that they’ll still be the official opposition at this rate. I suppose there’s a chance of Canada 1993 happening in regards to the number of Tory seats, but I wouldn’t bank on it right now.

i don't see Canada 1993 at this juncture. Liberal Democrats being official opposition is definitely in the realm of possibility.

In the event of a total Conservative collapse I expect a 3-way between the SNP, the LD, and Reform:

Reform is taking votes only from the Conservatives, if Reform bypasses them then Reform is likely to win in heavily majority Conservative seats.

Basically anything more than 65% Con. in 2019 will probably go Reform in a nationally tied vote, especially the UKIPy seats like Boston, that would be around 15.

In the event of a total Conservative collapse I would expect Reform to replace them in midlands-northern rural areas + the UKIP coast.

Ditto for the LD's in rural southern seats.

[Blair]

The real uncertainty I have is the liberals; the polling shows they have lost what 30% of their 2019 vote to Labour and there will be a number of seats where they get overtaken by Labour but equally when you look at the swings they were getting in the 2022 and 2023 locals you can see a case for them doing better than labour in some of these south-east & south-west shire seats.

Btw, Laura K and Clive Myrie are being lined up as co-hosts of the BBC coverage.

Ugh, just give it to Myrie. You need someone with a bit of authority and gravitas in the chair, especially in that first hour after polls close, when representatives from both parties are trying desperately to spin the exit poll into something it's clearly not.

I've always been a BBC guy on election night, but if it's an option between "Laura K" nodding sagely in agreement as Ric Holden assures her the Tories can still win, and Beth Rigby verbally skewering whichever poor cabinet sod gets wheeled out on Sky to convince us Rome isn't burning, I know which option I'll be picking.

ITV actually had quite good coverage last time; I'm certainly not a huge fan of either Gideon or Ed B but they had a good rotating cast of ex politicians, good lobby journalists and just had an interesting format- there really is a niche for a very in-depth and analytical election night program. The BBC feel a need to do a 'well this really nerdy...' when most people watching it at 2am already know what it is and that they are one...

But yes it's strange to put someone as unpopular as Laura K in it- her sunday show has hardly been a success.

[TheTide]

The real uncertainty I have is the liberals; the polling shows they have lost what 30% of their 2019 vote to Labour and there will be a number of seats where they get overtaken by Labour but equally when you look at the swings they were getting in the 2022 and 2023 locals you can see a case for them doing better than labour in some of these south-east & south-west shire seats.

Btw, Laura K and Clive Myrie are being lined up as co-hosts of the BBC coverage.

Ugh, just give it to Myrie. You need someone with a bit of authority and gravitas in the chair, especially in that first hour after polls close, when representatives from both parties are trying desperately to spin the exit poll into something it's clearly not.

I've always been a BBC guy on election night, but if it's an option between "Laura K" nodding sagely in agreement as Ric Holden assures her the Tories can still win, and Beth Rigby verbally skewering whichever poor cabinet sod gets wheeled out on Sky to convince us Rome isn't burning, I know which option I'll be picking.

ITV actually had quite good coverage last time; I'm certainly not a huge fan of either Gideon or Ed B but they had a good rotating cast of ex politicians, good lobby journalists and just had an interesting format- there really is a niche for a very in-depth and analytical election night program. The BBC feel a need to do a 'well this really nerdy...' when most people watching it at 2am already know what it is and that they are one...

But yes it's strange to put someone as unpopular as Laura K in it- her sunday show has hardly been a success.

Her previous role as political editor also isn't exactly a natural route to such a position. Since election night coverage began in the aftermath of the War, the vast majority of presenters have been either regular newsreaders or 'special events' specialists such as the Dimblebys. Nick Robinson (reasonably well-liked despite his Tory past) would make much more sense.

Presumably Jeremy Vine will continue to be the swingometer guy. Opinions on him are fairly mixed. An important role is the 'grilling interviewer' - this has provided many memorable moments going back to at least 1964 when there was an 'interesting' encounter between Robin Day and George Brown. It won't be Neil or Paxman. Jo Coburn would be a reasonable choice, far better-suited to it than she is to being a presenter (a role she has for by-elections when the BBC bothers to cover them).

[oldtimer]

The real uncertainty I have is the liberals; the polling shows they have lost what 30% of their 2019 vote to Labour and there will be a number of seats where they get overtaken by Labour but equally when you look at the swings they were getting in the 2022 and 2023 locals you can see a case for them doing better than labour in some of these south-east & south-west shire seats.

Btw, Laura K and Clive Myrie are being lined up as co-hosts of the BBC coverage.

Ugh, just give it to Myrie. You need someone with a bit of authority and gravitas in the chair, especially in that first hour after polls close, when representatives from both parties are trying desperately to spin the exit poll into something it's clearly not.

I've always been a BBC guy on election night, but if it's an option between "Laura K" nodding sagely in agreement as Ric Holden assures her the Tories can still win, and Beth Rigby verbally skewering whichever poor cabinet sod gets wheeled out on Sky to convince us Rome isn't burning, I know which option I'll be picking.

ITV actually had quite good coverage last time; I'm certainly not a huge fan of either Gideon or Ed B but they had a good rotating cast of ex politicians, good lobby journalists and just had an interesting format- there really is a niche for a very in-depth and analytical election night program. The BBC feel a need to do a 'well this really nerdy...' when most people watching it at 2am already know what it is and that they are one...

But yes it's strange to put someone as unpopular as Laura K in it- her sunday show has hardly been a success.

Her previous role as political editor also isn't exactly a natural route to such a position. Since election night coverage began in the aftermath of the War, the vast majority of presenters have been either regular newsreaders or 'special events' specialists such as the Dimblebys. Nick Robinson (reasonably well-liked despite his Tory past) would make much more sense.

Presumably Jeremy Vine will continue to be the swingometer guy. Opinions on him are fairly mixed. An important role is the 'grilling interviewer' - this has provided many memorable moments going back to at least 1964 when there was an 'interesting' encounter between Robin Day and George Brown. It won't be Neil or Paxman. Jo Coburn would be a reasonable choice, far better-suited to it than she is to being a presenter (a role she has for by-elections when the BBC bothers to cover them).

For 'grilling interviewer' they need someone who isn't afraid of them and is disdainful of all politicians.

[oldtimer]

The real uncertainty I have is the liberals; the polling shows they have lost what 30% of their 2019 vote to Labour and there will be a number of seats where they get overtaken by Labour but equally when you look at the swings they were getting in the 2022 and 2023 locals you can see a case for them doing better than labour in some of these south-east & south-west shire seats.

Btw, Laura K and Clive Myrie are being lined up as co-hosts of the BBC coverage.

Ugh, just give it to Myrie. You need someone with a bit of authority and gravitas in the chair, especially in that first hour after polls close, when representatives from both parties are trying desperately to spin the exit poll into something it's clearly not.

I've always been a BBC guy on election night, but if it's an option between "Laura K" nodding sagely in agreement as Ric Holden assures her the Tories can still win, and Beth Rigby verbally skewering whichever poor cabinet sod gets wheeled out on Sky to convince us Rome isn't burning, I know which option I'll be picking.

ITV actually had quite good coverage last time; I'm certainly not a huge fan of either Gideon or Ed B but they had a good rotating cast of ex politicians, good lobby journalists and just had an interesting format- there really is a niche for a very in-depth and analytical election night program. The BBC feel a need to do a 'well this really nerdy...' when most people watching it at 2am already know what it is and that they are one...

But yes it's strange to put someone as unpopular as Laura K in it- her sunday show has hardly been a success.

The LD are obviously going to do really well south of the Severn-Wash line, like in 1997.

But the UKIP coast extents south of that line all the way to the Thames, and Cornwall and Wales are also a bit UKIPy, that is going to limit their gains.

[JimJamUK]

Presumably Jeremy Vine will continue to be the swingometer guy. Opinions on him are fairly mixed. An important role is the 'grilling interviewer' - this has provided many memorable moments going back to at least 1964 when there was an 'interesting' encounter between Robin Day and George Brown. It won't be Neil or Paxman. Jo Coburn would be a reasonable choice, far better-suited to it than she is to being a presenter (a role she has for by-elections when the BBC bothers to cover them).

I think you’re being a bit too kind…

Personally, I would have Victoria Derbyshire be the lead presenter. She is clearly regarded as 2nd tier, but has enough experience and did a better job than Laura K and Fiona Bruce when she covered their shows for them.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I will be excited to watch Sky News on election night since they are the only ones who have a 24h livestream on YouTube. Also Beth Rigby, Jon Craig, and the boy with the curly hair who's in all the Whats App group chats.

[Torrain]

More MRP polling, from one of the better names in the game:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1775531272594395421

[Oryxslayer]

Because that MRP confirms my priors I will call it the most accurate and ignore the others

[Torrain]

Because that MRP confirms my priors I will call it the most accurate and ignore the others

Eh - that’s fair criticism. The Lib Dem and SNP numbers feel more intuitively right to me, so I editorialised. Should do better.

I originally had a stupid gag about the glut of MRP polling in there, but you got a smidge of bias rather than a very dumb joke, so count yourself lucky

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Lib Dems winning more seats than 1997 on 2/3rds the vote share, and up less than a point on 2019 still feels a bit off to me. Could their vote really get *that* efficient? I kinda think they're underpolled and are going to stumble into 16-18% through strong seconds in the shires.
And I just can't see that Reform UK vote coming out in an election. They're getting pitiful donations (less than Sinn Fein last year!) and I really can't imagine them sustaining an election campaign on the level of UKIP 2015, much less getting a similar result.

[TheTide]

The Lib Dems winning more seats than 1997 on 2/3rds the vote share, and up less than a point on 2019 still feels a bit off to me. Could their vote really get *that* efficient? I kinda think they're underpolled and are going to stumble into 16-18% through strong seconds in the shires.
And I just can't see that Reform UK vote coming out in an election. They're getting pitiful donations (less than Sinn Fein last year!) and I really can't imagine them sustaining an election campaign on the level of UKIP 2015, much less getting a similar result.

The gap between the Lib Dems and the Tories in percentage terms is actually lower than it was in 1997 on this.

[Oryxslayer]

The Lib Dems winning more seats than 1997 on 2/3rds the vote share, and up less than a point on 2019 still feels a bit off to me. Could their vote really get *that* efficient? I kinda think they're underpolled and are going to stumble into 16-18% through strong seconds in the shires.
And I just can't see that Reform UK vote coming out in an election. They're getting pitiful donations (less than Sinn Fein last year!) and I really can't imagine them sustaining an election campaign on the level of UKIP 2015, much less getting a similar result.

The gap between the Lib Dems and the Tories in percentage terms is actually lower than it was in 1997 on this.

The main thing about the Lib-Dems (at least from a pre-election perspective) is that their campaign is limited. Of course they will have candidates almost everywhere, but their targeting is direct. In most of these seats the Lib-Dems are already the primary challenger to the Tories, either based on past wins or a second-place result in 2019.

This limited campaign seems to be weirdly beneficial at the moment because a good chunk of Labour's lead is anti-Tory not pro-Labour. Since in their limited targets the Lib-Dems are known to be the anti-Tory option, their path to victory is simple: just to convince voters who have already soured on the Conservatives that they are the anti-Tory option in a particular seat. It helps that often (but not always) Labour are not viable in their targets, and that Labour are starting from such a commanding position nationally that voters can safely feel free to choose another option. Most importantly though, this has already proven to be the case locally, with anti-Tory voters going for the most viable option in their region.

[YL]

Note: this is still quite a small sample size by the standards of YouGov's MRPs, just under 20,000 as opposed to over 100,000. So you can't really take much from it about constituencies which might behave oddly (e.g. Ashfield).

It's not as horrific for the Tories as some other recent MRPs, but note that there are quite a few seats which it has them winning on quite low vote shares, often below 35% (and there are very few seats where it has them over 40%). So it's still pretty bad for them really.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Lib Dems winning more seats than 1997 on 2/3rds the vote share, and up less than a point on 2019 still feels a bit off to me. Could their vote really get *that* efficient? I kinda think they're underpolled and are going to stumble into 16-18% through strong seconds in the shires.
And I just can't see that Reform UK vote coming out in an election. They're getting pitiful donations (less than Sinn Fein last year!) and I really can't imagine them sustaining an election campaign on the level of UKIP 2015, much less getting a similar result.

The gap between the Lib Dems and the Tories in percentage terms is actually lower than it was in 1997 on this.

That's a rather good point actually. Though it does also make me think that 155 seats seems a bit high for 24%? Especially with an alleged 12% Reform vote.

[oldtimer]

Note: this is still quite a small sample size by the standards of YouGov's MRPs, just under 20,000 as opposed to over 100,000. So you can't really take much from it about constituencies which might behave oddly (e.g. Ashfield).

It's not as horrific for the Tories as some other recent MRPs, but note that there are quite a few seats which it has them winning on quite low vote shares, often below 35% (and there are very few seats where it has them over 40%). So it's still pretty bad for them really.

It doesn't look that weird if the D/K are all reallocated by past election vote (basically all to the Conservatives and LD).

It even has the prospective Reform seats correct (Boston, Castle Point, Clacton ect).

Some are weird, I dont think the Conservatives and LD are going to win any seats in Wales no matter what MRP.

[Tintrlvr]

Note: this is still quite a small sample size by the standards of YouGov's MRPs, just under 20,000 as opposed to over 100,000. So you can't really take much from it about constituencies which might behave oddly (e.g. Ashfield).

It's not as horrific for the Tories as some other recent MRPs, but note that there are quite a few seats which it has them winning on quite low vote shares, often below 35% (and there are very few seats where it has them over 40%). So it's still pretty bad for them really.

It doesn't look that weird if the D/K are all reallocated by past election vote (basically all to the Conservatives and LD).

It even has the prospective Reform seats correct (Boston, Castle Point, Clacton ect).

Some are weird, I dont think the Conservatives and LD are going to win any seats in Wales no matter what MRP.

I don’t see how Labour can win even the revised Montgomeryshire seat absent a total Tory wipeout (certainly the Tories hold it if they hold >100 seats), and while Labour definitely has a shot at the redrawn Brecon seat, it should be fairly three-cornered and could also stay Tory or go LD. Labour has enough targets in Wales that I suspect they will cede it to the LDs, who will definitely be putting all of their Welsh resources there.

[oldtimer]

Note: this is still quite a small sample size by the standards of YouGov's MRPs, just under 20,000 as opposed to over 100,000. So you can't really take much from it about constituencies which might behave oddly (e.g. Ashfield).

It's not as horrific for the Tories as some other recent MRPs, but note that there are quite a few seats which it has them winning on quite low vote shares, often below 35% (and there are very few seats where it has them over 40%). So it's still pretty bad for them really.

It doesn't look that weird if the D/K are all reallocated by past election vote (basically all to the Conservatives and LD).

It even has the prospective Reform seats correct (Boston, Castle Point, Clacton ect).

Some are weird, I dont think the Conservatives and LD are going to win any seats in Wales no matter what MRP.

I don’t see how Labour can win even the revised Montgomeryshire seat absent a total Tory wipeout (certainly the Tories hold it if they hold >100 seats), and while Labour definitely has a shot at the redrawn Brecon seat, it should be fairly three-cornered and could also stay Tory or go LD. Labour has enough targets in Wales that I suspect they will cede it to the LDs, who will definitely be putting all of their Welsh resources there.

They need someone to vote for them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Wales

The LD are literally scrapping 5% in Wales, and (following UKIP) Reform will do better than average in Wales.

The winner in Monty might win it with only 25%, Labour got 16% only 7 behind the LD in 2019.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don’t see how Labour can win even the revised Montgomeryshire seat absent a total Tory wipeout (certainly the Tories hold it if they hold >100 seats), and while Labour definitely has a shot at the redrawn Brecon seat, it should be fairly three-cornered and could also stay Tory or go LD. Labour has enough targets in Wales that I suspect they will cede it to the LDs, who will definitely be putting all of their Welsh resources there.

Appearances can be deceptive: the area in the new cross-Berwyns horror of a constituency that will be coming in from Clwyd South rather than Montgomery will make up a solid third of its electorate. Labour will normally be well ahead there and will have had at least a small lead even in 2010. It is still a constituency where the Conservatives would only be under pressure in a bad year,¹ but, on paper at least, it isn't bomb-proof.

In - Christ, what do we even call it? B-R-CT? - the critical issue is that while Labour have many targets in Wales, they don't have many in or near South Wales (I'm not counting Bridgend here which, under present circumstances, is at most a tick-box exercise) which is an important distinction: the only other one nearby is the new Carmarthen constituency. It is certainly not guaranteed a win² but there's really no reason why the local party in Pontardawe shouldn't wish to at least give it a go, especially as you can easily campaign in both Pontardawe (and up further into Ystradgynlais) and the Amman Valley (i.e. in the new Carmarthen constituency) in the same day without any bother and especially as one member of the new CLP will be Jeremy Miles.

<sub>1. RIP Montgomery Liberalism, how soon we forget you etc.
2. Even the 1918-83 version of Brecon & Radnor, which included Brynmawr, was never a secure Labour seat, except for the late 1950s and the 1960s and that was entirely down to a monstrously popular incumbent who had the knack for being in favour of the aspects of postwar rural modernization that people liked and against the ones they didn't.</sub>

[Tintrlvr]

Note: this is still quite a small sample size by the standards of YouGov's MRPs, just under 20,000 as opposed to over 100,000. So you can't really take much from it about constituencies which might behave oddly (e.g. Ashfield).

It's not as horrific for the Tories as some other recent MRPs, but note that there are quite a few seats which it has them winning on quite low vote shares, often below 35% (and there are very few seats where it has them over 40%). So it's still pretty bad for them really.

It doesn't look that weird if the D/K are all reallocated by past election vote (basically all to the Conservatives and LD).

It even has the prospective Reform seats correct (Boston, Castle Point, Clacton ect).

Some are weird, I dont think the Conservatives and LD are going to win any seats in Wales no matter what MRP.

I don’t see how Labour can win even the revised Montgomeryshire seat absent a total Tory wipeout (certainly the Tories hold it if they hold >100 seats), and while Labour definitely has a shot at the redrawn Brecon seat, it should be fairly three-cornered and could also stay Tory or go LD. Labour has enough targets in Wales that I suspect they will cede it to the LDs, who will definitely be putting all of their Welsh resources there.

They need someone to vote for them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Wales

The LD are literally scrapping 5% in Wales, and (following UKIP) Reform will do better than average in Wales.

The winner in Monty might win it with only 25%, Labour got 16% only 7 behind the LD in 2019.

I think you thought I was saying the LDs would be serious contenders in Montgomeryshire, which I do not think is the case (that one should stay safely Tory; the LDs might have stood a chance if the boundaries went unchanged, but they are nowhere in the Wrexham parts of the seat). I was just saying I don't think Labour can win the seat, either.

I was saying the LDs might be able to be competitive in the revised Brecon seat, although this will be dependent on them establishing themselves as the tactical preference in the new, more Labour-oriented areas added to the seat in the southwest, which is far from certain but seems possible. Filuwaúrdjan is right that it is hardly a given that Labour won't give it a solid try too, but that's most likely to leave the seat looking three-cornered as the historical LD vote in Brecon proper is unlikely to vote Labour.

The LDs' polling Wales-wide is essentially irrelevant; no one thinks they will be competitive anywhere other than Powys this time around.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though from a partisan Labour perspective, a strong LibDem effort in the Usk and Wye Valleys would be no bad thing at all, and never was. Saying that, Labour did once have a reasonable vote in Crickhowell of all places, but gentrification has eliminated all traces of that. The socioeconomic differences between the various elements of the constituency are quite extraordinary. A bonus detail is that some places present quite differently to how they really are: e.g. Brecon town strikes visitors as very smart and prosperous, but is actually a rather working class town with a lot of social housing: it's not unlike Abergavenny in that respect.

[Oryxslayer]

IMO the two Powys seats are 'accidental' gerrymanders, and that's why at least right now I think they will stay Blue.

Accidental in that cutting so many seats at once in the tight confines of Wales was always going to produce some oddities. The commission didn't intend to favor a party or population when they drew those lines, or create seats with confusing community connections, but that's what they did. Both seats now have multiple communities with different social and political traditions. Arguably at least in this part of Wales pairing the two rural seats and then throwing the excess population elsewhere might have made more sense, but the commission must have tried that and found the cascading changes even worse.

Gerrymanders in that the differing political traditions in the paired regions mean that the old rural sections of both seats still dominate the vote. In the case of both seats almost a 2:1 population ratio between that retained from the old seat and that coming in. That retained has little modern Labour tradition and is mostly Conservative/Lib-Dem, and that coming in is mostly Labour with some Conservatives and no Lib-Dem tradition. You cannot reconcile the two. It's a fairly clear case of cracking, where the limited rural vote is made more powerful by throwing in some other areas it'll outvote especially through a divided opposition.

And the cracking benefits the Conservatives cause they are the party of the rural Powys seats. That fact that (as stated) both Labour and the Lib-Dems are likely to contest the southern seat for lack of targets just proves the point. Now things can easily still change, especially since there is no election campaigns yet, but right now I suspect  things shake out with the Tories on top of a horrendously split vote.

[Skye]

So Reform UK sacked its candidate for York Central for "inactivity" after not returning calls or emails.

...turns out he had been dead since February.

Reform UK admitted it didn’t realize that Tommy Cawkwell, its election candidate in York Central, had perished when he was sacked for lack of activity.

“We can’t afford to have people doing nothing in an election year,” a party spokesperson had told local news outlet the York Press.

But Cawkwell had actually died two months before.

Reform UK spokesperson Gawain Towler said Wednesday night he was “mortified” at the error.

https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-party-fired-candidate-inactive-turns-out-dead-uk/

I can't 💀

[Harlow]

So Reform UK sacked its candidate for York Central for "inactivity" after not returning calls or emails.

...turns out he had been dead since February.

Reform UK admitted it didn’t realize that Tommy Cawkwell, its election candidate in York Central, had perished when he was sacked for lack of activity.

“We can’t afford to have people doing nothing in an election year,” a party spokesperson had told local news outlet the York Press.

But Cawkwell had actually died two months before.

Reform UK spokesperson Gawain Towler said Wednesday night he was “mortified” at the error.

https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-party-fired-candidate-inactive-turns-out-dead-uk/

I can't 💀

Dying is no excuse for not campaigning. Never stop the grind.

[adma]

So Reform UK sacked its candidate for York Central for "inactivity" after not returning calls or emails.

...turns out he had been dead since February.

Reform UK admitted it didn’t realize that Tommy Cawkwell, its election candidate in York Central, had perished when he was sacked for lack of activity.

“We can’t afford to have people doing nothing in an election year,” a party spokesperson had told local news outlet the York Press.

But Cawkwell had actually died two months before.

Reform UK spokesperson Gawain Towler said Wednesday night he was “mortified” at the error.

https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-party-fired-candidate-inactive-turns-out-dead-uk/

I can't 💀

Dying is no excuse for not campaigning. Never stop the grind.

I guess Calvin Coolidge Republicanism is Reform's thing...