United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Torrain]

Bingo. He’s also never held a full cabinet role or run his own department.

Every Tory PM in the past 150 years has either spent a term as opposition leader, or time in one of the Great Offices of State (Chancellor, Foreign or Home Office) before getting the job.

Oddly enough this precedent also excludes Michael Gove, who has been in the cabinet for almost the entire time since 2010. Really would have expected he'd have landed a Great Office of State by now. 

Yeah - as one of the big survivors of this government, you'd have expected him to reach the top by now, it's very Mandelson of him to still be here after 13 years, and still not have one of the GOs. He, Hunt, Mitchell and Cameron are the only ones standing from the original 2010 cabinet, and they all took far longer breaks from the frontbench.

I seem to remember a story about Gove turning down the Home Office to go back to DHLUC, during one of the Sunak reshuffles. All these stories are about seventh hand though, so it might be that his reputation for meddling/backstabbing has prevented anyone from trusting him with immigration or foreign policy.

I think it's also been established that he was promised Chancellor as part of Johnson's 2016 bid for the leadership, but we all know how that particular saga ended!

[Torrain]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Here's a crazy idea: why not bring back Boris? Obviously he has a ton of baggage and couldn't win but he might at least be able to prevent Nigel Farage from destroying the Tories considering he's managed that much before. He hardly seems likely to do worse than Sunak or Mordaunt and at least no one could say he isn't qualified for the position.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Here's a crazy idea: why not bring back Boris? Obviously he has a ton of baggage and couldn't win but he might at least be able to prevent Nigel Farage from destroying the Tories considering he's managed that much before. He hardly seems likely to do worse than Sunak or Mordaunt and at least no one could say he isn't qualified for the position.

Good luck finding a winnable seat to parachute Boris in or changing the rules.

[Pericles]

1997 is increasingly looking like an optimistic scenario for the Tories.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1774143859053715776
The Tories are still Official Opposition, good poll for them.

[Duke of York]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

Sky news is going to be incredibly fun to watch when the election happens.

[Duke of York]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

[WD]

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1774143859053715776
The Tories are still Official Opposition, good poll for them.

Time to accept that < 100 Tory MPs is a realistic outcome here

[Antonio the Sixth]

At this point I feel like Rishi might be delaying the election because he's morbidly curious to see just how badly he can tank his own party. And tbh, as someone who has to deal with Tory backbenchers all the time, he has every reason to want to f**k them over.

[adma]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

For all one knows, we might have a *real* 1993 Canadian situation where *SNP* is the official opposition.  (That is, if they were operating on 2015 near-clean-sweep fumes.  Which they aren't.)

[Duke of York]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

For all one knows, we might have a *real* 1993 Canadian situation where *SNP* is the official opposition.  (That is, if they were operating on 2015 near-clean-sweep fumes.  Which they aren't.)

I can’t see the SNP becoming official opposition.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

For all one knows, we might have a *real* 1993 Canadian situation where *SNP* is the official opposition.  (That is, if they were operating on 2015 near-clean-sweep fumes.  Which they aren't.)

I can’t see the SNP becoming official opposition.

Yeah, if anything, I think the MRP has them with too many seats. Just off the cuff, I’m thinking they’ll get more like 30 than 40. I also think that the Lib Dems have a good shot at getting more seats than the SNP.

The over/under on the Tories and 100 seats is a good question though. I don’t doubt that they’ll still be the official opposition at this rate. I suppose there’s a chance of Canada 1993 happening in regards to the number of Tory seats, but I wouldn’t bank on it right now.

[Pericles]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

For all one knows, we might have a *real* 1993 Canadian situation where *SNP* is the official opposition.  (That is, if they were operating on 2015 near-clean-sweep fumes.  Which they aren't.)

I can’t see the SNP becoming official opposition.

Yeah, if anything, I think the MRP has them with too many seats. Just off the cuff, I’m thinking they’ll get more like 30 than 40. I also think that the Lib Dems have a good shot at getting more seats than the SNP.

The over/under on the Tories and 100 seats is a good question though. I don’t doubt that they’ll still be the official opposition at this rate. I suppose there’s a chance of Canada 1993 happening in regards to the number of Tory seats, but I wouldn’t bank on it right now.

According to the MRP, while 15 cabinet ministers are predicted to lose their seats, 9 out of the remaining 13 have 'hyper marginal' majorities of less than 5%. Predicted results for ministers included here

[Duke of York]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

For all one knows, we might have a *real* 1993 Canadian situation where *SNP* is the official opposition.  (That is, if they were operating on 2015 near-clean-sweep fumes.  Which they aren't.)

I can’t see the SNP becoming official opposition.

Yeah, if anything, I think the MRP has them with too many seats. Just off the cuff, I’m thinking they’ll get more like 30 than 40. I also think that the Lib Dems have a good shot at getting more seats than the SNP.

The over/under on the Tories and 100 seats is a good question though. I don’t doubt that they’ll still be the official opposition at this rate. I suppose there’s a chance of Canada 1993 happening in regards to the number of Tory seats, but I wouldn’t bank on it right now.

i don't see Canada 1993 at this juncture. Liberal Democrats being official opposition is definitely in the realm of possibility.

[adma]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

For all one knows, we might have a *real* 1993 Canadian situation where *SNP* is the official opposition.  (That is, if they were operating on 2015 near-clean-sweep fumes.  Which they aren't.)

I can’t see the SNP becoming official opposition.

Yeah, if anything, I think the MRP has them with too many seats. Just off the cuff, I’m thinking they’ll get more like 30 than 40. I also think that the Lib Dems have a good shot at getting more seats than the SNP.

The over/under on the Tories and 100 seats is a good question though. I don’t doubt that they’ll still be the official opposition at this rate. I suppose there’s a chance of Canada 1993 happening in regards to the number of Tory seats, but I wouldn’t bank on it right now.

i don't see Canada 1993 at this juncture. Liberal Democrats being official opposition is definitely in the realm of possibility.

Well, I was being quasi-whimsical--and couching things in terms of a '15-repeat acknowledged-unlikelihood.  Which, of course, would mean 56 seats, and something crazy like the Tories and Lib Dems finishing with, who knows, 55 each or something...

[Torrain]

I know MRP polls are supposed to be viewed in the macro, rather than the granular, but there’s some *weird* stuff in the Survation projection:



Labour winning the Tory-Lib Dem marginals of Hazel Grove, as well as Woking for one. They’re also winning Frome and East Somerset, the prototypical Lib Dem tactical voting seat.

And Scotland is a mess. SNP vote is high enough to win Edinburgh West from the Lib Dems (doubt), and all Tory seats. And yet they’re losing Ayr *to Labour*, in what’s likely an SNP hold thanks to unionist vote split between Tory and Labour. And thats not touching on Labour doing better in Edinburgh than Glasgow, which just seems intuitively wrong, based on the past five years of local and national results.

I’m not saying the SNP *couldn’t* hold 41 seats in the election (although it’s at the top-end of their likely seat total). I’m just pretty sure they wont hold *that* combination, if they’re doing that well.

[JimJamUK]

I know MRP polls are supposed to be viewed in the macro, rather than the granular, but there’s some *weird* stuff in the Survation projection:

Labour winning the Tory-Lib Dem marginals of Hazel Grove, as well as Woking for one. They’re also winning Frome and East Somerset, the prototypical Lib Dem tactical voting seat.

The difficulty is that on a national and basically all demographic level, the Labour vote is up a lot while the Lib Dem vote is static. There is no scientifically rigorous way to model which constituencies will see tactical voting for the Lib Dems and which will see a credible Lib Dem vote fall away in Labour’s favour. They could stick some arbitrary tactical voting on the numbers eg; Labour vote will rise a lot less where the Lib Dems are 2nd, but it would clearly still be arbitrary and wrong in many places as well. There’s similarly a long-standing issue with MRPs (some more than others), where the vote for parties is flattened and it’s particularly striking for the Labour vote in Tory-Lib Dem marginals. A lot of this is simply a reflection of the underlying Labour vote (both natural Labour voters and people who are defaulting to them nationally as the non-Tory option) which will be squeezed by the Lib Dems come election day.

[YL]

I know MRP polls are supposed to be viewed in the macro, rather than the granular, but there’s some *weird* stuff in the Survation projection:

Labour winning the Tory-Lib Dem marginals of Hazel Grove, as well as Woking for one. They’re also winning Frome and East Somerset, the prototypical Lib Dem tactical voting seat.

The difficulty is that on a national and basically all demographic level, the Labour vote is up a lot while the Lib Dem vote is static. There is no scientifically rigorous way to model which constituencies will see tactical voting for the Lib Dems and which will see a credible Lib Dem vote fall away in Labour’s favour. They could stick some arbitrary tactical voting on the numbers eg; Labour vote will rise a lot less where the Lib Dems are 2nd, but it would clearly still be arbitrary and wrong in many places as well. There’s similarly a long-standing issue with MRPs (some more than others), where the vote for parties is flattened and it’s particularly striking for the Labour vote in Tory-Lib Dem marginals. A lot of this is simply a reflection of the underlying Labour vote (both natural Labour voters and people who are defaulting to them nationally as the non-Tory option) which will be squeezed by the Lib Dems come election day.

The Electoral Calculus MRP a few weeks back was a bit more plausible in that respect, but even it had Labour ahead in Chichester, for example. I’d quite like to see one of those YouGov ones with a proper MRP sample size, but they’ve only done them during the actual campaign.

[icc]

I know MRP polls are supposed to be viewed in the macro, rather than the granular, but there’s some *weird* stuff in the Survation projection:

Labour winning the Tory-Lib Dem marginals of Hazel Grove, as well as Woking for one. They’re also winning Frome and East Somerset, the prototypical Lib Dem tactical voting seat.

The difficulty is that on a national and basically all demographic level, the Labour vote is up a lot while the Lib Dem vote is static. There is no scientifically rigorous way to model which constituencies will see tactical voting for the Lib Dems and which will see a credible Lib Dem vote fall away in Labour’s favour. They could stick some arbitrary tactical voting on the numbers eg; Labour vote will rise a lot less where the Lib Dems are 2nd, but it would clearly still be arbitrary and wrong in many places as well. There’s similarly a long-standing issue with MRPs (some more than others), where the vote for parties is flattened and it’s particularly striking for the Labour vote in Tory-Lib Dem marginals. A lot of this is simply a reflection of the underlying Labour vote (both natural Labour voters and people who are defaulting to them nationally as the non-Tory option) which will be squeezed by the Lib Dems come election day.

The Electoral Calculus MRP a few weeks back was a bit more plausible in that respect, but even it had Labour ahead in Chichester, for example. I’d quite like to see one of those YouGov ones with a proper MRP sample size, but they’ve only done them during the actual campaign.

They did one in January - https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-today

[afleitch]

And Scotland is a mess. SNP vote is high enough to win Edinburgh West from the Lib Dems (doubt), and all Tory seats. And yet they’re losing Ayr *to Labour*, in what’s likely an SNP hold thanks to unionist vote split between Tory and Labour. And thats not touching on Labour doing better in Edinburgh than Glasgow, which just seems intuitively wrong, based on the past five years of local and national results.

I’m not saying the SNP *couldn’t* hold 41 seats in the election (although it’s at the top-end of their likely seat total). I’m just pretty sure they wont hold *that* combination, if they’re doing that well.

Good MRP relies on census data, which isn't available for Scotland at the moment (and may not be before the next GE)

Using 2011 data has issues given its age. This I expect is likely to impact where it matters, particularly given voter churn in Glasgow and Edinburgh. And it might be applying some demographic divides in rUK across Scotland that might be a step out.

It looks like the MRP is based on a five point lead which is what Survation found in their most recent regular poll.

Similar seats (41 to 40) as with Electoral Calculus which assumed a seven point lead.

It is in line with earlier MRP's (some of which had an effective tie) that if they are telling us something it is that the SNP vote actually may be more efficient than Labour's when the parties are closer together (YouGov and others show the same), which is somewhat contrary to assumptions and the UNS.

[Conservatopia]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

Sky news is going to be incredibly fun to watch when the election happens.

Why do you keep saying this over and over in the thread? Firstly it adds nothing and secondly you're misinformed.

Sky News UK isn't anything like the right-wing Sky News Australia. They're completely separate entities sharing little more than a name. Sky here is no more pro-Tory than BBC or ITV.

If you mean GB News, the actual right-wing broadcaster, then you might have a point. But I suspect even they will be saying that Sunak deserves the thrashing and that this will cause a right-wing comeback or something.

[TheTide]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

Sky news is going to be incredibly fun to watch when the election happens.

Why do you keep saying this over and over in the thread? Firstly it adds nothing and secondly you're misinformed.

Sky News UK isn't anything like the right-wing Sky News Australia. They're completely separate entities sharing little more than a name. Sky here is no more pro-Tory than BBC or ITV.

If you mean GB News, the actual right-wing broadcaster, then you might have a point. But I suspect even they will be saying that Sunak deserves the thrashing and that this will cause a right-wing comeback or something.

Sky News is now owned by Comcast IIRC. It did have something of a reputation as having a mildly centre-right bias years ago, when it was still under the Murdoch Empire.

The 'fun' comment has merit if it refers to the graphics, which tend to be far superior to those of the BBC and ITV. I'm interested to see how GB News does on that particular front actually.

Btw, Laura K and Clive Myrie are being lined up as co-hosts of the BBC coverage.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/26252808/laura-kuenssberg-bbc-election-night-news-anchor/

Alas having multiple frontline presenters probably means that it will move even further away from, you know, actual results.

[CumbrianLefty]

I know MRP polls are supposed to be viewed in the macro, rather than the granular, but there’s some *weird* stuff in the Survation projection:

Labour winning the Tory-Lib Dem marginals of Hazel Grove, as well as Woking for one. They’re also winning Frome and East Somerset, the prototypical Lib Dem tactical voting seat.

The difficulty is that on a national and basically all demographic level, the Labour vote is up a lot while the Lib Dem vote is static. There is no scientifically rigorous way to model which constituencies will see tactical voting for the Lib Dems and which will see a credible Lib Dem vote fall away in Labour’s favour. They could stick some arbitrary tactical voting on the numbers eg; Labour vote will rise a lot less where the Lib Dems are 2nd, but it would clearly still be arbitrary and wrong in many places as well. There’s similarly a long-standing issue with MRPs (some more than others), where the vote for parties is flattened and it’s particularly striking for the Labour vote in Tory-Lib Dem marginals. A lot of this is simply a reflection of the underlying Labour vote (both natural Labour voters and people who are defaulting to them nationally as the non-Tory option) which will be squeezed by the Lib Dems come election day.

The Electoral Calculus MRP a few weeks back was a bit more plausible in that respect, but even it had Labour ahead in Chichester, for example. I’d quite like to see one of those YouGov ones with a proper MRP sample size, but they’ve only done them during the actual campaign.

They did one in January - https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48371-yougov-mrp-shows-labour-would-win-1997-style-landslide-if-election-were-held-today

Which, notably, used an Opinium/Kantar style VI methodology.

[Torrain]

Btw, Laura K and Clive Myrie are being lined up as co-hosts of the BBC coverage.

Ugh, just give it to Myrie. You need someone with a bit of authority and gravitas in the chair, especially in that first hour after polls close, when representatives from both parties are trying desperately to spin the exit poll into something it's clearly not.

I've always been a BBC guy on election night, but if it's an option between "Laura K" nodding sagely in agreement as Ric Holden assures her the Tories can still win, and Beth Rigby verbally skewering whichever poor cabinet sod gets wheeled out on Sky to convince us Rome isn't burning, I know which option I'll be picking.