United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[YL]

It strikes me how little headway the Lib Dems have been making, still polling below the 2019 result. For the Tories to fall sub-100 seats you’d surely need to see the Lib Dems breaking 16%.

The thing is that they will probably do badly nearly everywhere they are not targeting, so the national share may be misleading and what's really important is how they are doing in their target seats. If that Godalming & Ash poll we got is both accurate and typical, then the Tory slump will be enough on its own in places like that, and with Labour clearly third (and who would think Labour could win there anyway?) it shouldn't be too hard to squeeze the Labour vote a bit to seal the deal.

The main effect of their current weakness in national vote share is that in some more optimistic targets (Maidenhead is an example) models are currently showing them behind Labour, and while they will still no doubt draw bar charts based on the last General Election result it may be harder to get the squeeze going. And that may lead to some Tory holds on a low vote share, or if the Tory performance is catastrophic enough to some very weird Labour gains. (Electoral Calculus has Labour winning Chichester!) I think that if the Tories really are as low as 20% then FPTP won't be kind to them.

[TheTide]

It strikes me how little headway the Lib Dems have been making, still polling below the 2019 result. For the Tories to fall sub-100 seats you’d surely need to see the Lib Dems breaking 16%.

The thing is that they will probably do badly nearly everywhere they are not targeting, so the national share may be misleading and what's really important is how they are doing in their target seats. If that Godalming & Ash poll we got is both accurate and typical, then the Tory slump will be enough on its own in places like that, and with Labour clearly third (and who would think Labour could win there anyway?) it shouldn't be too hard to squeeze the Labour vote a bit to seal the deal.

The main effect of their current weakness in national vote share is that in some more optimistic targets (Maidenhead is an example) models are currently showing them behind Labour, and while they will still no doubt draw bar charts based on the last General Election result it may be harder to get the squeeze going. And that may lead to some Tory holds on a low vote share, or if the Tory performance is catastrophic enough to some very weird Labour gains. (Electoral Calculus has Labour winning Chichester!) I think that if the Tories really are as low as 20% then FPTP won't be kind to them.

On the last point, it's worth noting that there are quite a few seats in the big cities where Labour can't achieve the swing that the current national polls show even if the Tories go down to literally 0% and Labour to 100%.

[TheTide]

Various tidbits here about a May election still possibly being on.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/why-labour-tories-believe-general-election-may_uk_65eaff66e4b026052a535b1c

It cites 20/03 (after PMQs) and 23/03 as the dates when it could be announced.

[oldtimer]

First poll to have the Tories below 20% since Truss I believe, and one of the few in the entire history of polling. Not the most reputable of pollsters but still quite amusing.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1765910523952918586?s=20

How does this translate to a seat count? Tories in low double digits?

24 seats according to Electoral Calculus, in practice lower due to tactical voting, maybe zero seats in England and Wales.

Maidenhead goes Labour (Theresa May retiring not a surprise).
Richmond goes Labour (Sunak's seat).

that's...cataclysmic. How will they even bounce from that? how will they elect a new leader given that the 1922 committee will be simply 5-6 Scottish MPs? Are they doing a Canada 1993 moment?

It's a possibility that cannot be ignored.

But it's very similar to the LD position in 2015, including the delusion their MP's will be judged individually by voters.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour entered the 1997 campaign on 55% of the vote - in what universe?

[YL]

Labour entered the 1997 campaign on 55% of the vote - in what universe?

There were actually quite a few polls putting them on about that in March and early April 1997; the highest was 58% from Harris on 17 March. It should be noted, however, that the Tories' vote share didn't increase very much and the one they got in the election was if anything slightly below what the polls had been giving them in January and February and indeed in much of the campaign.

(I'm not convinced this is very relevant, anyway. Opinion polling has changed a lot.)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It was the Lib Dems that did well during the 1997 campaign itself, which could potentially be good news for Ed Davey (especially if any more shock polls come out where leader of opposition could be a contested position).

[JimJamUK]

It was the Lib Dems that did well during the 1997 campaign itself, which could potentially be good news for Ed Davey (especially if any more shock polls come out where leader of opposition could be a contested position).

Not the case in 2015, 2017 or 2019 though, and Davey does not strike me as somebody about to inspire a wave of enthusiasm (the previous Lib Dem campaign surges largely involved getting people who’d voted for them at the last election to return, along with positive attention given to the party during the campaign).

[Battista Minola 1616]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

[oldtimer]

It was the Lib Dems that did well during the 1997 campaign itself, which could potentially be good news for Ed Davey (especially if any more shock polls come out where leader of opposition could be a contested position).

10% and 25 seats is realistically their aim.

But 25 seats might be enough to fight the SNP for Leader of Opposition.

[oldtimer]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

The thing is Sunak is doomed anyway.

He's probably after a CEO job like Nick Clegg, so PM 2022-25 looks better on his CV than 2022-24.

He was never a party man, so I don't think he cares if the Conservatives survive if he can squeeze another few months on the top job.

It's all very LD 2015, even down to leadership hopefulls thinking they will retain their seats and run  for the leadership afterwards, like Vince Cable.

[TheTide]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

The thing is Sunak is doomed anyway.

He's probably after a CEO job like Nick Clegg, so PM 2022-25 looks better on his CV than 2022-24.

He was never a party man, so I don't think he cares if the Conservatives survive if he can squeeze another few months on the top job.

It's all very LD 2015, even down to leadership hopefulls thinking they will retain their seats and run  for the leadership afterwards, like Vince Cable.

Sunak won't be PM for a single femtosecond of 2025, even if he expects or desires to be. I reckon he could be toppled at Conference if he hasn't called the election or at least indicated a (pre-Christmas) date for it by then. Talking of which, hasn't it been indicated that the 2023 Conference season was the last before the election anyway?

[brucejoel99]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

The thing is Sunak is doomed anyway.

He's probably after a CEO job like Nick Clegg, so PM 2022-25 looks better on his CV than 2022-24.

He was never a party man, so I don't think he cares if the Conservatives survive if he can squeeze another few months on the top job.

It's all very LD 2015, even down to leadership hopefulls thinking they will retain their seats and run  for the leadership afterwards, like Vince Cable.

Sunak won't be PM for a single femtosecond of 2025, even if he expects or desires to be. I reckon he could be toppled at Conference if he hasn't called the election or at least indicated a (pre-Christmas) date for it by then. Talking of which, hasn't it been indicated that the 2023 Conference season was the last before the election anyway?

Labour's 2024 Annual Conference is currently scheduled for Liverpool from Sun. 22 Sept. - Wed. 25 Sept., as is the 2024 Tory Conference for Birmingham from Sun. 29 Sept. - Wed. 2 Oct. Idk if that's just on-paper tho 🤷

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It was the Lib Dems that did well during the 1997 campaign itself, which could potentially be good news for Ed Davey (especially if any more shock polls come out where leader of opposition could be a contested position).

Not the case in 2015, 2017 or 2019 though, and Davey does not strike me as somebody about to inspire a wave of enthusiasm (the previous Lib Dem campaign surges largely involved getting people who’d voted for them at the last election to return, along with positive attention given to the party during the campaign).

Yes, Davey is a drag (really any coalition experience is a minus not a plus) and they would be in a better position installing moran as leader, who i think would play well on stage. What i am thinking is an election campaign where Tories are clearly losing the plot (senior figures already capitulating and playing leadership races during the campaign) and it looks like Labour is going to completely break fptp and win everything, the Lib Dems might be in a good position to "keep the bastards honest". (We stand for good vibes is never a bad campaign for them, just one they haven't been able to play after the coalition or during the brexit years)

[oldtimer]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

The thing is Sunak is doomed anyway.

He's probably after a CEO job like Nick Clegg, so PM 2022-25 looks better on his CV than 2022-24.

He was never a party man, so I don't think he cares if the Conservatives survive if he can squeeze another few months on the top job.

It's all very LD 2015, even down to leadership hopefulls thinking they will retain their seats and run  for the leadership afterwards, like Vince Cable.

Sunak won't be PM for a single femtosecond of 2025, even if he expects or desires to be. I reckon he could be toppled at Conference if he hasn't called the election or at least indicated a (pre-Christmas) date for it by then. Talking of which, hasn't it been indicated that the 2023 Conference season was the last before the election anyway?

Would there be enough time to topple him in October and install a new Leader before the inevitable January election ?

I don't think so, the last chance to replace Sunak would be in July.

Instead most likely it's months of leadership hopefulls doing the media rounds before getting the Portillo treatment, and they end up with David Mundell as post-election leader as the only Minister or ex-Minister still an MP.

[Tintrlvr]

It was the Lib Dems that did well during the 1997 campaign itself, which could potentially be good news for Ed Davey (especially if any more shock polls come out where leader of opposition could be a contested position).

Not the case in 2015, 2017 or 2019 though, and Davey does not strike me as somebody about to inspire a wave of enthusiasm (the previous Lib Dem campaign surges largely involved getting people who’d voted for them at the last election to return, along with positive attention given to the party during the campaign).

Yes, Davey is a drag (really any coalition experience is a minus not a plus) and they would be in a better position installing moran as leader, who i think would play well on stage. What i am thinking is an election campaign where Tories are clearly losing the plot (senior figures already capitulating and playing leadership races during the campaign) and it looks like Labour is going to completely break fptp and win everything, the Lib Dems might be in a good position to "keep the bastards honest". (We stand for good vibes is never a bad campaign for them, just one they haven't been able to play after the coalition or during the brexit years)

I'm not sure I agree, but it's really hard to say without seeing how Davey performs in a campaign (and even then the counterfactual of Moran or someone else (e.g., Daisy Cooper) as leader would not be shown).

There are I think two things the Lib Dems might want to do: First, present a safe pair of hands for voters who are abandoning the Tories but don't want to vote Labour directly or elect a Labour MP (for this I think Davey is best suited), which is a play for a solid comeback in seats and maybe even OO if the Tories completely collapse (I'd only give this about 5-10% chance of happening, but it's not impossible), but not a play for 100+ seats, and, second, make at least a semi-serious claim to want to lead the country (for which I think a "fresh face" such as Moran or Cooper is best suited). The latter is obviously more of a "go-big" strategy, but I don't really think an election where Labour are the inevitable victors is necessarily the right time to try it.

[TheTide]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

The thing is Sunak is doomed anyway.

He's probably after a CEO job like Nick Clegg, so PM 2022-25 looks better on his CV than 2022-24.

He was never a party man, so I don't think he cares if the Conservatives survive if he can squeeze another few months on the top job.

It's all very LD 2015, even down to leadership hopefulls thinking they will retain their seats and run  for the leadership afterwards, like Vince Cable.

Sunak won't be PM for a single femtosecond of 2025, even if he expects or desires to be. I reckon he could be toppled at Conference if he hasn't called the election or at least indicated a (pre-Christmas) date for it by then. Talking of which, hasn't it been indicated that the 2023 Conference season was the last before the election anyway?

Would there be enough time to topple him in October and install a new Leader before the inevitable January election ?

I don't think so, the last chance to replace Sunak would be in July.

Instead most likely it's months of leadership hopefulls doing the media rounds before getting the Portillo treatment, and they end up with David Mundell as post-election leader as the only Minister or ex-Minister still an MP.

Sunak himself was installed within a matter of days.

[oldtimer]

I don't know if this has already been said here, but at this point if Sunak does not call a May election I will not be surprised to eventually see a poll with the Tories third (behind Reform UK). That obviously won't happen at the GE but one poll would be humiliating enough.

The thing is Sunak is doomed anyway.

He's probably after a CEO job like Nick Clegg, so PM 2022-25 looks better on his CV than 2022-24.

He was never a party man, so I don't think he cares if the Conservatives survive if he can squeeze another few months on the top job.

It's all very LD 2015, even down to leadership hopefulls thinking they will retain their seats and run  for the leadership afterwards, like Vince Cable.

Sunak won't be PM for a single femtosecond of 2025, even if he expects or desires to be. I reckon he could be toppled at Conference if he hasn't called the election or at least indicated a (pre-Christmas) date for it by then. Talking of which, hasn't it been indicated that the 2023 Conference season was the last before the election anyway?

Would there be enough time to topple him in October and install a new Leader before the inevitable January election ?

I don't think so, the last chance to replace Sunak would be in July.

Instead most likely it's months of leadership hopefulls doing the media rounds before getting the Portillo treatment, and they end up with David Mundell as post-election leader as the only Minister or ex-Minister still an MP.

Sunak himself was installed within a matter of days.

That required the fixing up of the election for him by Graham Brady, after that fiasco it's obvious they can't do that again.

They will have to do a proper leadership election, so it's July or retirement for the likes of Badenoch, Mordaunt, Gove, Hunt ect.

[Torrain]

That required the fixing up of the election for him by Graham Brady, after that fiasco it's obvious they can't do that again.

They will have to do a proper leadership election, so it's July or retirement for the likes of Badenoch, Mordaunt, Gove, Hunt ect.

Wait - you think that, as their desperation deepens, the Tories are going to pay *more* attention to the rules rather than less? If they're in enough trouble that they end up triggering a coup against their third leader in three years, civility is going to be the last thing on their minds.

It's either a repeat of Oct 2022, or four hours in a smoke-filled-room. The chances of them doing a Sunak vs Truss contest, where they spend months navel-gazing and touring the country for hustings are less than zero.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

That required the fixing up of the election for him by Graham Brady, after that fiasco it's obvious they can't do that again.

They will have to do a proper leadership election, so it's July or retirement for the likes of Badenoch, Mordaunt, Gove, Hunt ect.

Wait - you think that, as their desperation deepens, the Tories are going to pay *more* attention to the rules rather than less? If they're in enough trouble that they end up triggering a coup against their third leader in three years, civility is going to be the last thing on their minds.

It's either a repeat of Oct 2022, or four hours in a smoke-filled-room. The chances of them doing a Sunak vs Truss contest, where they spend months navel-gazing and touring the country for hustings are less than zero.

I suppose he's saying that the party is too fractured to even form a smoke filled room to install Moudaunt or Gove or someone without literally causing a party split and going full Liberal Civil War in the election.

[Torrain]

I suppose he's saying that the party is too fractured to even form a smoke filled room to install Moudaunt or Gove or someone without literally causing a party split and going full Liberal Civil War in the election.

That's fair. I'm working off the assumption that self-preservation will win out over anarchy at the end of the day. But if things get enough to trigger coup #3, who can say?

[oldtimer]

I suppose he's saying that the party is too fractured to even form a smoke filled room to install Moudaunt or Gove or someone without literally causing a party split and going full Liberal Civil War in the election.

That's fair. I'm working off the assumption that self-preservation will win out over anarchy at the end of the day. But if things get enough to trigger coup #3, who can say?

Once again I compare them to the 2015 LD's.

Only 8 out of 57 of their MP's got reelected, yet none of the other 49 who lost had the balls or the brains for self-preservation.

Both Simon Hughes and Vince Cable, who thought they would succeed Nick Clegg, lost their seats.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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In a testament that those who are in politics can be cutoff by reality, look at the crap the President of the Academy of Social Science, Sir Ivor Crewe, said in 1995 about John Major vs Tony Blair:

Blair was talking sence then, Crewe was talking crap.

If they are receiving such advice like Crewe's in private of course it's no surprise they make bad irrational choices.

[President Johnson]

The funny thing is that speculation about a May election is flaring up again. Apparently some Tories are privately saying that things can only get worse (that wouldn't be a popular campaign song) if they go beyond May. Of course it will soon be known for certain whether there will be a May election or not.

Lmao, I briefly thought "May election" Tories considered to bring back Theresa May.

[oldtimer]

The funny thing is that speculation about a May election is flaring up again. Apparently some Tories are privately saying that things can only get worse (that wouldn't be a popular campaign song) if they go beyond May. Of course it will soon be known for certain whether there will be a May election or not.

Lmao, I briefly thought "May election" Tories considered to bring back Theresa May.

Even that wouldn't change anything.

To be brief, Blair in 1995 was right:

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There are 2 conservative/republican parties, one mostly in Parliament/Congress (call them Liberal Conservative) the other mostly outside (call them Populist Conservative).

They cannot be led by a Liberal Conservative succesfully, because most of their voters are Populist Conservatives who will revolt against them.

So only Populist Conservatives can effectively lead them, with Liberal Conservatives sharing power.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some papers claiming that Sunak has virtually ruled out a May election, with the Sunday Times saying a further "fiscal event" is planned in the autumn.