United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Conservatopia]

If only there were young Tory voters on this board that we could actually speak to in order to find out how and why they vote.

[Wiswylfen]

If only there were young Tory voters on this board that we could actually speak to in order to find out how and why they vote.

Ones who talk about voting for Labour and standing for Reform?

[Dan the Roman]

If only there were young Tory voters on this board that we could actually speak to in order to find out how and why they vote.

Ones who talk about voting for Labour and standing for Reform?

You mock but I know an OE who that describes. Also likes Trump.

[Conservatopia]

If only there were young Tory voters on this board that we could actually speak to in order to find out how and why they vote.

Ones who talk about voting for Labour and standing for Reform?

In other words: trolls.

[Wiswylfen]

If only there were young Tory voters on this board that we could actually speak to in order to find out how and why they vote.

Ones who talk about voting for Labour and standing for Reform?

In other words: trolls.

Can be too careful: I know of some very right-wing (ex-)Conservatives who voted Labour in 1997.

[Pericles]

Tory economic credibility is in ruins.

Also ironic how Sunak was the most popular Chancellor in years.

[Coldstream]

Tory economic credibility is in ruins.

Also ironic how Sunak was the most popular Chancellor in years.

At the time Sunak was paying half the countries wages.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, he achieved his popularity doing stuff that he mostly hated.

[Joe Republic]

Sunak will be the fourth consecutive 'incumbent PM to lose a GE' who was previously a Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The last incumbent PM with Chancellor on his resumé to win all of his general elections was Harold Macmillan.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Fwiw i was actually polled when sunak was chancellor and i distinctly remember not rating him as badly as the other tories (I can't remember if it was positive) merely because I was relieved to be on a furlough benefit.

[TheTide]

It's all getting a bit odd.

https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1765713719512715746?s=20
It's hard to see him going for it on the current polling, but it seems stupid of him to open the door to accusations of 'bottling it', 'frit' etc. I suppose the most likely explanation is that he's just not a very good politician.

And, again, it wouldn't be a @#£@££@££@ 'snap' election.

[Torrain]

I was unsure if he stumbled in the interview, but then he 'clarified' the remarks, with a press release that *also* hedged. He just reiterated the "autumn is my working assumption" line, and refused to rule May out. 

Labour have been setting up for the "Sunak bottled it" line for months. Given how heavily they've pushed it in recent days, I half-expect Starmer, Ashworth and Reeves will pitch up at the Diageo bottling plant in Fife on the day after the deadline for the most on-the-nose photo-op in recent memory.

It's particularly dumb to do it in a week when the Lobby was already pulling on that thread. Seen a couple of them chattering about the conferences for April and May which have been cancelled/delayed, and the civil service gossip about it still being on the cards. By itself, it's a bit thin. But once the PM starts being coy, there's enough material for a write-up.

[TheTide]

First poll to have the Tories below 20% since Truss I believe, and one of the few in the entire history of polling. Not the most reputable of pollsters but still quite amusing.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1765910523952918586?s=20

[WD]

First poll to have the Tories below 20% since Truss I believe, and one of the few in the entire history of polling. Not the most reputable of pollsters but still quite amusing.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1765910523952918586?s=20

More reputable poll here, but still the same trend of the bottom falling out:

https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1765997110749483467?s=20

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak's comment yesterday seemed to be an attempt to damp down speculation over a May election, whilst still keeping the option open should polls show a marked Tory recovery post-Budget.

We don't know for sure yet, but early signs are not terribly promising in that regard.

[Hnv1]

First poll to have the Tories below 20% since Truss I believe, and one of the few in the entire history of polling. Not the most reputable of pollsters but still quite amusing.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1765910523952918586?s=20

How does this translate to a seat count? Tories in low double digits?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How does this translate to a seat count? Tories in low double digits?

'Recount in Richmond (Yorks.) territory, essentially.

[oldtimer]

Sunak will be the fourth consecutive 'incumbent PM to lose a GE' who was previously a Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The last incumbent PM with Chancellor on his resumé to win all of his general elections was Harold Macmillan.

Chancellors make bad PMs, too focused on numbers to see a wider picture.

[oldtimer]

First poll to have the Tories below 20% since Truss I believe, and one of the few in the entire history of polling. Not the most reputable of pollsters but still quite amusing.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1765910523952918586?s=20

How does this translate to a seat count? Tories in low double digits?

24 seats according to Electoral Calculus, in practice lower due to tactical voting, maybe zero seats in England and Wales.

Maidenhead goes Labour (Theresa May retiring not a surprise).
Richmond goes Labour (Sunak's seat).

[Torrain]

How does this translate to a seat count? Tories in low double digits?

Sir Edward Jonathan Davey FRSA (born 25 December 1965) is a British politician who has served as Leader of the Liberal Democrats since 2020, and Leader of the Opposition since 2024.

[Hnv1]

First poll to have the Tories below 20% since Truss I believe, and one of the few in the entire history of polling. Not the most reputable of pollsters but still quite amusing.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1765910523952918586?s=20

How does this translate to a seat count? Tories in low double digits?

24 seats according to Electoral Calculus, in practice lower due to tactical voting, maybe zero seats in England and Wales.

Maidenhead goes Labour (Theresa May retiring not a surprise).
Richmond goes Labour (Sunak's seat).

that's...cataclysmic. How will they even bounce from that? how will they elect a new leader given that the 1922 committee will be simply 5-6 Scottish MPs? Are they doing a Canada 1993 moment?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228

Sunak would lost his seat in a result like this. No PM has ever lost their own seat in a general election.

[Harry Hayfield]

With regard to that poll from the Times saying Lab lead by 27%, there are two things

1) Electoral Calculus always overegg their forecasts, remember they are a commerical company therefore are trying to sell their forecasts and nothing sells better than "Government could be wiped out at next election)

2) In 1997, which I think 2024 is turning into, Labour entered the campaign on 55% of the vote, and won the election with 44% of the vote, the Conservatives entered on 31% and lost the election with 31%, with the Liberal Democrats and the Referendum party picking up the losses from Labour. I think it is very likely we will see the same again, this time between the Lib Dems and Reform UK

3) Therefore a more likely election result would be: Lab 40%, Con 21%, Reform 15%, Lib Dem 10%, Green 10%, SNP 3 with using UK-Elect gives a House of Commons of: Lab 407, Con 139, Lib Dem 40, SNP 39, NI Parties 18, Plaid 3, Ind 2, Green 1, Speaker 1

[TheTide]

With regard to that poll from the Times saying Lab lead by 27%, there are two things

1) Electoral Calculus always overegg their forecasts, remember they are a commerical company therefore are trying to sell their forecasts and nothing sells better than "Government could be wiped out at next election)

2) In 1997, which I think 2024 is turning into, Labour entered the campaign on 55% of the vote, and won the election with 44% of the vote, the Conservatives entered on 31% and lost the election with 31%, with the Liberal Democrats and the Referendum party picking up the losses from Labour. I think it is very likely we will see the same again, this time between the Lib Dems and Reform UK

3) Therefore a more likely election result would be: Lab 40%, Con 21%, Reform 15%, Lib Dem 10%, Green 10%, SNP 3 with using UK-Elect gives a House of Commons of: Lab 407, Con 139, Lib Dem 40, SNP 39, NI Parties 18, Plaid 3, Ind 2, Green 1, Speaker 1

There's simply no chance that the Tories would get over 100 seats on less than half of their 2019 vote share, unless there's some bizarre scenario in which Labour are at or below their 2019 share. Electoral Calculus has many flaws but it is right to estimate that the Tories would be close to a Canada 1993 scenario on circa 20% of the vote. It might well be the case that the Tories won't have an electoral catastrophe of that extent, but they would need to be polling considerably in excess of 20% in order to be certain of that.

Incidentally, I would say that there is genuinely more chance of a Canada 1993 scenario than the Greens reaching a double digit share of the vote.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It strikes me how little headway the Lib Dems have been making, still polling below the 2019 result. For the Tories to fall sub-100 seats you’d surely need to see the Lib Dems breaking 16%.