2024: The CHAOS Timeline

[Yelnoc]

Times Square
Monday, January 1st, 2024
12:00 AM, New York, NY

The ball dropped in the midst of Time Square, as it always had, to the cheers of thousands on the scene and millions watching on television sets and screens across the United States. Couples kissed for the occasion, loners drank to the New Year, and the mayor of New York looked on with immense pride—a feeling his detractors might have thought misplaced, even comical—but for him a feeling altogether too real. This was his city. Earlier, Eric Adams had walked on stage as the loudspeakers blasted his favorite song—Empire State of Mind by Jay-Z (featuring Alicia Keys)–and he had delivered what was, in his own modest (very modest) opinion, an extremely well-received speech. Yet the table of success was at this late hour crowded with haters, and Adams had a foreboding that they were not there to be his waiters.* No, some of his campaign dealings with The Turks were causing him trouble, trouble that just would not go away, and he feared some rupture, some reckoning was coming soon.

Mayor Adams was not the only politician straining under the weight of approaching criminal trials. In Mar-A-Lago, former (and to some, current) President Donald Trump had also stayed up late to watch the ball drop. Yet he could not keep the impending criminal trials off his mind. The supreme court was weighing his Presidential immunity defense—a perfect defense, absolutely perfect—and though three of them owed him their jobs and two more seemed absolutely loyal, he did not trust that snake Roberts and worried he might swing one more Republican justice to join the liberals in forcing him to appear in court—which would be very unfair.

A great many American voters also wondered how the Supreme Court would rule on that case, as well as on the appeal from Colorado regarding whether Trump could constitutionally appear on the ballot, or if his actions after the 2020 election had violated the fourteenth amendment. But the great majority of Americans were thinking about anything else at that minute. This was a time for joy, a time to revel in the close of one year and the opening of another. 2023 had been, by many measures, an improvement. The Covid-19 pandemic was a distant memory and the rapid inflation of previous years was slowing to more manageable levels. And yet, most people felt anything but reassured. Many feared that 2024 would bring a further descent as wars raged abroad, the economy struggled at home, and a presidential election fraught with unprecedented room for crisis reared its ugly head. The most sanguine suspected the happy days, short as they had been, were coming to a close.

*   *   *

BRICS expands its membership with the ascension of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The United States maintains a weary eye on this international formation which appears poised to counter American hegemony.

The Republic of Artsakh is formally dissolved and incorporated into Azerbaijan. This marks the final resolution of the 2023 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, over the Armenian-majority exclave in Artsakh. The territory is already severely depopulated, as Armenian refugees streamed across the border to Armenia in the months leading up to the annexation.

The Israel-Hamas war continues to grind on, as Hamas maintains control in the far south of Gaza and clings to certain pockets in the north of the strip. Over 22,000 Gazans have been killed, about two-thirds of the deaths estimated to be civilians.
Tuesday, January 2nd: A Hezbollah missile strike on northern Israel kills six Israelis and wounds nineteen, making this the deadliest day for Northern Israeli since the tit-for-tat border escalation between Israel and Hezbollah began after Hamas’s October 7th attacks.
Saturday, January 6th: After a week of continued escalation on the Lebanese border, Israel declares war on Hezbollah. The Knesset declares its intent to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River, thus enforcing the terms of UNSC Resolution 1701 which accompanied the end of the 2006 War between Israel and Lebanon.

The declaration of war is met by scattered opposition within Israel among anti-Netanyahu faction, who point out that Netanyahu's unity coalition will dissolve with the conclusion of hostilities and insinuate that one motive in declaring war on Hezbollah is to prolong his government, as the war in Gaza appears to be winding down. A sparsely-attended protest is held in Tel Aviv.
Sunday, January 7th: The Bangladeshi general election is held. The ruling Awami League Party (AL) wins reelection by a very narrow margin, winning 158 seats (down from 258 seats before the election). The opposition Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP) decried the outcome as “rigged,” precipitating massive street protests.

Israel carries out air strikes across southern Lebanon and up to Beirut, killing dozens of civilians and an unclear number of Hezbollah fighters in the first day of the Northern Offensive. Israeli troop mobilization has begun, and a ground invasion of Lebanon is said to be “imminent.”

Shia militias attack US bases across Iraq in what appears to be a coordinated assault in solidarity with Hezbollah, killing multiple US servicemen. The United States responds with aerial bombardments of alleged militia targets, which is met with strenuous protest by the Iraqi government.

Orthodox Christians celebrate the birth of Christ today. Nonetheless, fighting continues on the front between Russia and Ukraine. This is a miserable Christmas for the Ukrainian army and home front. US aide ran out at the end of 2023. Over the past week, shortages of ammunition and other stores have begun to impact Ukrainian war-fighting capabilities, resulting in increased Ukrainian casualties and some losses in territory. There is great fear that Russia may press their advantage and launch an intense push at any time. 
Monday, January 8th: Israel begins its ground offensive as Israeli tanks cross the border into Lebanon. The offensive is met with stiff resistance on the ground, and the tank wedges are quickly bogged down by Hezbollah defensive fortifications. Meanwhile, a barrage of Hezbollah missiles descend on military and civilian targets across northern Israel, overwhelming the Iron Dome missile defense system and causing hundreds of casualties in Tel Aviv and elsewhere.

Tens of thousands of Iraqis take to the streets in Baghdad and elsewhere to protest Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and Gaza, as well as the US bombings on Shia militia targets the previous day—activists allege not all targets were military and that a high number of civilians were killed. The United States disputes these claims. A motion is introduced in Iraqi parliament demanding full withdrawal of US troops and closure of US bases.

A flurry of Houthi drones are launched, carrying payloads intended for Israeli and US targets in the Red Sea. These are all shot down by ships of the two US carrier groups in the area.

Sigrid Kaag, a Dutch former deputy prime minister and a Middle East expert, begins her new role as the UN coordinator for humanitarian aid to Gaza. The situation is extremely dire in Gaza, as the bulk of the strip's 1.8 million inhabitants huddle for shelter along the border with Egypt, where disease and starvation threaten to devastate their number. Kaag calls for Israel to immediate increase the number of aid trucks allowed in from Egypt each day.
Tuesday, January 9th: An appeals court hears arguments regarding Donald Trump's immunity defense in relation to Jack Smith's prosecution of Trump's conduct after the 2020 presidential election. Smith had asked the Supreme Court to take the appeal directly, thus expediting the process, but the high court declined, leaving the federal prosecutor's March 4th trial start date in jeopardy.
* Original quote (from memory): "Late the haters be your waiters at the table of success." - Eric Adams, Mayor of New York, lmao.

Shout-out to ChairmanSanchez for inspiring me with his format to write this. It just looks so clean.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Love what you've started with! Also thanks for the shoutout, not to toot my own horn, but I think the formatting I use is really good at conveying a lot of information in a managed, orderly fashion so I'm glad to see others picking it up.

[2016]

This is very, very interesting! I've suspicious feeling Trump will be kicked off 2024 Presidential Race which would sent the Republican Primary and GE into total CHAOS. Could Biden then decide to drop out at the last second before any votes are cast?

Will be watching this!

[Yelnoc]

Thanks guys! I just made a few updates to the OP. Expect another update this evening.

[Yelnoc]

Drake University
Wednesday, January 10th, 2024
10:00 PM, Des Moines, Iowa

The fifth Republican debate had concluded, and a quiet hum fell across the convention center as the attendees contemplated the night’s proceedings. It had not been the ordinary, boring spectacle of the past four debates. Not at all. The two participants, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, had united their voices in one bellicose cry—War! Asked by the moderators how the United States should respond to the escalating middle eastern war in which America’s ally, Israel, was at the center, Haley stated that the United States should strike against Iran—benefactor of Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis and the radical Shi’ite militias in Iraq—and “cut the head off the serpent.” Furthermore, she called on congress to “quit its bickering” and pass additional aid for “American allies,” a clear shot at Speaker Johnson’s failure to pass an aid bill for Israel. The crowd went wild with applause and DeSantis quickly echoed her bloody sentiment.

This was a major rhetorical escalation. The Biden administration had been continuing its delicate balancing act, backing Israel in the UN while pleading quietly with Netanyahu’s government to wrap up its military operations, patrolling the Red Sea and maintaining its disposition of forces while trying to avoid escalation. And now—if one could take the verbiage of the only two candidates to appear on stage at the Republican Party Presidential debate five days ahead of the Iowa caucuses as representative of the views of the opposition party—now there appeared to be institutional support within the United States for further escalation.

The question remained, would Trump cosign Haley’s hawkish position? And would the Republican electorate go along with the cry for war?
Thursday, January 11th: Closing arguments are held in Trump’s civil fraud trial in New York. Outside the courtroom, the press asks Trump about Haley’s call for the US to attack Iran, to which he replies:

“Crazy Haley wants to bomb Iran, bomb bomb bomb Iran. We’ll see about that. We will see about that. And, you know, we could if we wanted to, we absolutely could and it would be nasty. But it won’t be her doing it, no I don’t think so. Crazy Haley, isn’t she, a very crazy lady.”

Israel forces continue their slow progress towards the Litani river as Hezbollah continues to put up stiff resistance. Civilian casualties from Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah missile salvos continue to rise, with Lebanese citizens in Beirut and the south suffering the most. Anti-Hezbollah demonstrations in Beirut which broke out in the early days of the war have by this point dissipated, as the militia—whose popularity in Lebanon had been flagging—sees a resurgence in support among most sectors of Lebanese society. Clips of the carnage in Lebanon circulate globally across social media, prompting an outpouring of western support and pro-Lebanese demonstrations in major cities across the world.

Israel’s advance into southern Gaza has again been halted, as ground units are redeployed to the north. The bombing, however, continues at a somewhat lower level than in December. Peace talks continue to stall, with the Netanyahu administration declaring there is “more to be done” to insure that another October 7th can never happen again. Gaza casualties pass 23,000 mark, an estimated two-thirds of which are women and children. Humanitarian aid into Gaza continues at the previous trickle—UN Coordinator Kaag reports about 200 aid trucks are let across the border daily, under the 500/day that were allowed before the war and significantly less than the enormous amount of need in Gaza would demand. The pileup of aid in Egypt is beginning to inflame tensions in that country, though the Al-Sisi dictatorship continues to crack-down on all unauthorized pro-Gaza public demonstrations.

Iran, through European back channels, communicates to the Biden administration a cautious openness to some sort of diplomatic settlement to avoid further escalation. The administration is split on how to respond, with both hawkish pro-Israeli voices and dovish pro-general armistices voices within the cabinet. Biden’s advisors considered him considerably exposed on his left-flank in the upcoming general election, with videos of civilian devastation in Lebanon adding to the heart-wrenching clips that had flooded out of Gaza for the past three months. Yet Biden clung to his instincts and continued to prefer unconditional support for Israel, making the Iranian starting terms of an immediate cease-fire unworkable.
Friday, January 12th: Funerals are held in Baghdad for the deceased from last Sunday’s US airstrikes on Shi’ite militia positions (which were retaliation for the deadly attacks on US bases). These are massive processions with over one hundred thousand people in the streets, and quickly descend into mob violence. Debate in the Iraqi parliament over a measure demand the expulsion of US military presence from the country gains steam.

Israel bombs the Damascus airport, killing two Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen and an unknown number of Hezbollah members. This is not the first time such an incident has occurred in recent months, but this particular airstrike is met by far more strenuous objections, both from Syria’s Assad government and from Iran. American analysts in the intelligence community detect early warning signs that Iran has begun mobilizing its military forces.

The Disney Corporation issues a public statement affirming the company’s commitment to diversity and racial equity. This is in response to clips of Steamboat Willie which have gone viral on TikTok and elsewhere since the film entered public domain at the start of the year. The clips are used by liberal activists and media critics to demonstrate the “inherently racist” nature of early Disney properties and US society generally. The DeSantis campaign seizes on this press releasing, calling its own press conference where the presidential candidate alleges that Disney is controlled by a “woke conspiracy.”

Mean Girls, written by Tina Fey and based on the musical adaption of the original 2004 film, debuts in theaters across the United States and immediately beats box-office expectations on the back of nostalgia for the original Lindsay Lohan flick.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration releases global temperature report for 2023. The report indicates that the world came perilously close to breaching the 1.5C global temperature anomaly that scientists believe representatives a dangerous threshold, beyond which may lie uncontrollable feedback loops set to augment human-driven carbon emissions and push global warming even higher.
Saturday, January 13th: The Republican “Brown & Black Forums of America” held in Des Moines, Iowa, features all of the Republican candidates still in the race, excluding of course Donald Trump. All four attendees—Haley, DeSantis, Christie, and Hutchinson—rally behind the interventionist position.

In Yemen, US aircraft commence bombing of military targets, a notable escalation after the Houthis’ recent shift to targeting American military vessels. That evening, another wave of attacks hit American bases in Iraq, resulting in the deaths of both American servicemen and the Shi’ite militants.

The Republic of China holds its presidential and legislative elections. Kuomintang candidate Hou Yu-ih rides a wave of momentum to a narrow victory over incumbent Democratic Progressive Party candidate William Lai. The election of Yu-ih indicates a potential thawing relations with the PRC, as Lai was seen as more of a hardliner against PRC ambitions for Taiwan.
Sunday, January 14th: The United States congress passes an aide bill for Israel which is quickly signed by President Biden. The aide was detached from a broader package which would have also provided funds to Ukraine and Taiwan, for which House Republicans led by Speaker Johnson were demanding additional border security measures be passed in tandem. Some commentators point to Haley’s firm stance as an impetus for the separation, though others point to Speaker Johnson’s own commitments as a hard-line evangelical towards securing Israel.

Over the past two weeks, Ukraine has been shifting its array of forces on the front into a defensive posture, in part to help it better cope with the end of US military aid. The careful withdrawals turn into a rout as a Russian army group in the Kherson sector surges forward, creating a tangent that threatens Mykoaliv. The reversal reverberates psychologically across Ukraine, and dangerous reports begin to filter in about the morale of the Ukrainian troops.

[Yelnoc]

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses
Monday, January 15th, 2024
All Day, All Across Iowa

It was a landslide victory for Donald Trump, but that would not be the headline. The former—some would say current—President failed to cross the 50% mark, meaning his opponents collectively won a majority. That is how the press, always eager for a horse race, would spin the result. Just as crucial to the budding horse race narrative, Governor DeSantis—who had staked everything on a good showing in Iowa—had come up short, placing a clear third behind Haley’s rising star.

Iowa GOP Caucus Results
Trump – 48%
Haley – 24%
DeSantis – 15%
Ramaswamy – 6%
Christie – 5%
Hutchinson – 2%

Haley’s speech to her supporters sounded like a victory speech, even though she had not even won a quarter of the caucus. She was staking everything on New Hampshire, whose primary was just eight days away. Chris Christie was also staking everything on New Hampshire, much to the annoyance of the Haley camp, who felt their bases of support overlapped. Hutchinson, despite finishing dead last with only 2%, declared his intention to push on to New Hampshire. No word emerged from the DeSantis camp, though his campaign appeared to be on life support after such a dismal result.

Vivek Ramaswamy announced the suspension of his campaign. His announcement, given to a room of supporters in Iowa, doubles as a declaration of candidacy for the Libertarian Party presidential nomination. This oddly timed announcement is buried in national press by the results of the Iowa caucuses but would gain more traction later as pundits speculated whether he could detract a respectable percentage of the popular vote from Donald Trump, who remains the safe pick for the Republican nominee.

*   *   *

Today is a federal holiday, MLK Day. The birth of the esteemed civil rights leader is celebrated with muted enthusiasm in his hometown of Atlanta, where a small march led by black clergy and activists and flanked by white allies braves the wet weather in a planned march through Atlanta’s Old Fourth Ward.

Meanwhile, developments at the Fulton County courthouse have some bearing on the ongoing presidential campaign. District Attorney Fani Willis continues her strategy of “flipping” co-defendants—that is, offering generous plea bargains in exchange for their testimony against Trump and his top allies in Fulton County’s sprawling Georgia RICO case against the Trump 2020 campaign. Several co-defendants continue to pursue independent motions to separate or dismiss their cases. With so much to juggle, many commentators fear the case will not go to trial until after the election, several months after the proposed August start date.
Tuesday, January 16th: Trump’s E. Jean Carroll civil trial (damages only) begins. Press photographs of a particularly haggard-looking Trump exiting the courtroom gain wide circulation on social media.

The Iraqi parliament passes a resolution calling for the United States to close all of its bases and withdraw from the country. This is, many ways, a redux of the conflict that played out in 2020 and was eventually defused and submerged. The Biden administration indicates an openness to close a few installations but maintains it must hold crucial sites such as the Al-Asad Airbase in al-Anbar governate.

The Houthis respond to the ongoing bombing campaign against their military installations in Yemen by launching a flurry of drones at US naval targets in the Red Sea as well as the US naval base in Djibouti, just across the Red Sea. All drones are shot down. However, within this flurry is drone slips through and detonates on a commercial vessel, catastrophically disabling the cargo-liner and killing one Filipino crewman. The attack rattles world markets and solidifies the diversion of cargo-shipping from the Suez Canal route to around the African Cape.
Wednesday, January 17th: Ron DeSantis suspends his presidential campaign. The candidate needed two days to absorb his loss in Iowa, the state on which he had staked everything, but pressure from his donors forces him to admit defeat. DeSantis’s exit would appear to clear a path for Haley, though skeptics point to past polls which indicate that a good chunk of DeSantis’s base have Trump as a second choice.

This is a particular bloody day in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, as a major Israeli push to storm an entrenched Hezbollah position is beaten back by a hail of anti-tank missiles. It appears that the front lines are stabilizing in a manner similar to those between Ukraine and Russia, despite Israel’s air superiority. As the caskets come home to Israel, public opposition to the wars against Hamas and Hezbollah and to Netanyahu’s government generally begin to brew in Israel.
Thursday, January 18th: The sixth Republican debate is hosted by ABC in New Hampshire. This is another two-person debate, this time between Nikki Haley and Chris Christie—Trump again declined to participate. Nikki Haley double down on her hawkish views, calling on the Biden administration to stand firm against “Iranian aggression” and declaring that if elected, her first act in office would be to support our crucial allies in the middle east—Israel—with “all necessary force.” Christie again failed to differentiate himself, leading a witty pundit to opine that Christie is “running to be Haley’s vice president.”

A commercial vessel in the Arabian Sea is disabled by a drone attack which US intelligence claims was of Iranian origin. The vessel is Liberian flagged, Korean owned and Danish operated. Arabic media sources associated with Iran and their English equivalents such as Al-Mayadeen spread the narrative that the vessel was in fact being used by Israeli intelligence. The United States steps up its pressure on Iran, deploying a carrier group to the Arabian Sea, not far (in nautical terms) from the crucial Hormuz Straights which guard the entrance to the Persian Gulf.
Friday, January 19th: The judge in Trump’s civil trial with E. Jean Carroll finds the former president GUILTY and orders Trump to pay the required damages, a hefty bill in total. The guilty headlines circulate mainstream and liberal news outlets but fail to penetrate in conservative media and online spaces, which generally write the verdict off as an irrelevant liberal media spectacle.

The US government enters partial shutdown as the first appropriations deadline, relating to several discretionary programs but excluding key facets such as Defense spending, lapses. House and Senate negotiators had been working fruitless towards a compromise for months now and, other than the passage of Israel aid five days prior, had made no progress. The new deadline is February 2nd, at which point the government will enter a full shutdown. Speaker Johnson appears entirely boxed in. His right flank will not allow him to yield an inch, yet compromise appears unavoidable—unless, of course, the hardliners decided an indefinite shutdown would be preferable.

In Iraq, the mood of tense. Shi’ite clerics deliver fiery anti-American sermons in the morning. In the afternoon, demonstrations across the country brings hundreds of thousands of Iraqis in the streets to demand a final withdrawal of the American “occupiers” from their countries. These demonstrations turn violent in Baghdad, in Erbil, and in Anbar province near America’s Al-Asad airbase. The Biden administration responds by sending a special envoy to open negotiations with the Iraqi government in hopes finding a satisfactory partial settlement on the issue of US military draw-down that was recently tendered by the Iraqi parliament.

Japanese Moon Sniper lands successfully on the lunar surface. This is Japan’s first successful lunar landing. The lander is a technological breakthrough, and it represents a proof-of-concept for a much more precise landing methodology, allowing craft to touch down within 100 meters of their selected landed spots, as opposed to the typical allowable range of “kilometers.”
Saturday, January 20th: After a week of intense fighting, Ukrainian forces pull across the Southern Bug River, ceding Mykolaiv to the advancing Russian army group. Zelensky is said to be furious, as rumor indicate the commander in chief of the Ukrainian forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, made the decision to withdraw without first consulting the president. This is another recent sign that Zelensky’s position as premier Ukrainian leader may be imperil, ahead of a scheduled March presidential election for which few preparations have been made and outside observers speculated may eventually be suspended.
Sunday, January 21st: The seventh Republican debate, hosted by CNN in New Hampshire, features is again a duel between Haley and Christie. This time Haley goes on the offensive against Christie, making her clearest call to date for the “anti-Trump majority” to unify behind her. Christie is again caught flat-footed, a fact that reverberates in post-debate polling which shows slippage in his projected New Hampshire vote share.

Hamas launches an offensive out of southern Gaza, intended to link with its main pocket of resistance still standing in the north. The offensive is met by a furious Israeli air campaign. Simultaneously, attacks are carried out by Palestinian militants in the West Bank against Israeli security checkpoints, killing multiple Israeli military personnel and prompting reprisals in the West Bank.

The Hamas attack could not come at a better time for Hezbollah, whose defenses lines were beginning to be worn down by sustained Israeli bombardment. The episode heightens cries in Israel and the United States that both fronts are being coordinated in Tehran. As Israeli tank columns pause and the Israeli high commands frets over how to best redeploy its forces, the Hezbollah high command breathes a sigh of relief and uses the opportunity to withdraw north to a new defensive line.
Monday, January 22nd: The US stock markets open down significantly at the start of the fourth week of January, weighed down by global instability as well as by the partial shutdown of the federal government. There is growing concern about global economic growth in 2024 as well as particular US concerns. A number of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) that were planned for this and next quarter are quietly delayed until the second half of 2024.

[Yelnoc]

New Hampshire Primaries
Tuesday, January 23rd, 2024
All Day, All Across New Hampshire

It’s a photo finish in New Hampshire! Trump barely eeks out a win, again failing to finish with a clear majority. Haley consolidates most of the anti-Trump vote, running only three percentage points behind the former president. Meanwhile, Christie clocks in with a disappointing 9%; Haley supporters groan that if only the big man from New Jersey had kept his big ego in check, their candidate would have beaten Trump cleanly. Instead, both sides in the horse race claim victory. Christie has the grace to bow out on election night, issuing an emotional goodbye to his New Hampshire supporters and encouraging what national following he has to throw their support behind Haley in order to stop Trump.

New Hampshire GOP Primary Results
Trump – 46%
Haley – 43%
Christie – 9%
Hutchinson – 2%

The bigger surprise, by far, is in the Democratic contest. This was always going to be wonky—due to some inscrutable conflict between New Hampshire and the DNC, the Biden campaign had declined to register for the ballot. The local machine dutifully launched a write-in campaign for the incumbent president, and the national media prepared to ignore the results. But sometimes, a story is just too juicy to pass up.

New Hampshire Dem Primary Results
Biden – 41%
Phillips – 33%
Williamson – 24%
other – 2%

Biden failed to win a clear majority, and the long-shot campaign of congressman Dean Phillips could claim his respectable second-place finish as a kind of victory. Meanwhile, progressive outsider Marianne Williamson had rallied on the unpopularity of US support for Israels wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the ongoing US bombing campaign in Yemen (as well as intermittent bombing in Iraq) to garner a quarter of the vote. Both opposition candidates declared their intention to continue their campaigns.

The Biden campaign was frustrated, more than anything, by the media reaction. They did win, after all, and a write-in campaign at that. There were bigger fish to fry—the middle east was on fire, the government was half-shutdown by the whims of the extreme right, and the previous president was daily testing the strength of the American political system with his various trials and reckless public statements. It was enough to give Joe Biden a big headache.
Wednesday, January 24th: Politico Magazine publishes a long-form piece detailing Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign for the Libertarian Party presidential nomination. The article catalogs the mixed reactions from the party’s various factions. While Vivek is no libertarian purist, he is a big name, and the Libertarian Party has typically valued name ID when selected a presidential candidate.

Hamas’s northern offensive is halted by Israeli air-power and redeployed ground forces before the tangent could make contact with Hamas’s northern pocket. Nonetheless, this offensive cost Israel significantly in men and material. Public confidence in Netanyahu’s prosecution of the war continues to slip. Meanwhile, reports of a cholera outbreak in the Gaza Strip begin to mount.

The 3 judge-appellate panel drawn from the federal appeals court over DC, rejects Donald Trump’s appeal regarding his immunity defense in Jack Smith’s federal prosecution against his activities during and after the 2020 presidential election. The Trump legal team immediately appeals for an en banc session so that the entire appeals court can hear Trump’s argument.
Thursday, January 25th: Preliminary Q4’2023 GDP growth figures indicate the US economy expanded at a rate of 1.1%. The anemic growth, perversely, fuels a big bull run in the stock market as Fed Watchers expect the news will make the Federal Reserve more open to multiple rate cuts in 2024.

An American battleship is lightly damaged by a Houthi drone attack. One American crewman is killed, and two others are injured by the blast. This is the first time American forces in the Red Sea have taken damage in the campaign. Meanwhile, the American bombing campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen continues apace, generating heart-wrenching scenes of death and devastation which are shared across western social media, notably TikTok.

According to Lebanese government sources (which Israeli and US government and media consider interchangeable with Hezbollah sources), Lebanese casualties have passed the 10,000 mark. This includes both military and civilian deaths, though the majority are thought to be civilian casualties, primarily concentrated in densely populated Beirut, which has been saturated with relatively imprecise munitions for the entire month. The front in the south continues to stagnate at Hezbollah’s new defensive line south of the Litani River. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s missile attacks continue to penetrate the Iron Dome, and Israeli casualties continue to climb (though remaining a fraction of civilian casualties in Lebanon and Gaza).
Friday, January 26th: Trump’s marketing scam civil trial is settled out of court with little media coverage. With his next scheduled trial, the criminal case in DC federal court regarding his conduct after the 2020 election, likely delayed due to his immunity defense appeal, Trump now has two full months free from court to campaign. His next firmly scheduled trial is the New York criminal case concerning “hush money” payments allegedly made to pornographic actress Stormy Daniels, which is set to begin on March 25th.

Iraqi Shi’ite militias follow up last-weeks popular demonstrations against US forces with another coordinated assault against US bases. Again, there are casualties on both sides. The US State department specifically calls out Iran and IRGC operatives alleged to be embedded in the attacking forces, a major departure from earlier rhetoric which indicates an escalation against Iran. The US suspends negotiations with the Iraqi parliament regarding a potential draw-down in US forces deployed in the country.

Negotiations for a GOP Presidential Primary debate between Haley and Trump, tentatively scheduled for the Saturday before the Nevada caucuses, fall through. Trump claims on Truth Social that the debate would be a “waste of time” while Haley tells media that the former president is “scared to face her on the debate stage.”
Saturday, January 27th: The front between Ukraine and Russia has stabilized after the cession of Mykolaiv, as the Ukrainian army settles into more defensible positions. While the military situation stagnates, Ukrainian politics flare up. President Zelinsky is asked by Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko how preparations are for the upcoming presidential election, set by law to take place in just two months on March 31st. Zelinsky replies that preparations are lagging, and that the election may need to be delayed due to the ongoing war.

This exchange, which was videotaped, spreads rapidly on Ukrainian digital media, prompting heavy backlash among the war-weary Ukrainian citizenry. The general mood is one that they have been abandoned by the west, and that it is time to sue for peace before Ukraine’s negotiating position worsens any further. Backing this sentiment is the fact that American aid is still stalled in a congress which appears headed for a full shutdown, while aid from the European union remains held up by a handful of right-wing governments, led by Hungary’s Viktor Orban.

Today is international Holocaust Remembrance Day. Supporters of Israel mark the occasion with demonstrations in favor of the ongoing operations in Gaza and Lebanon, a notable occurrence in an atmosphere of waning support for the war among the western public as heart-wrenching clips of civilian devastation and continuing reports of a cholera outbreak in Gaza filter across the world.
Sunday, January 28th: The United States responds to Friday’s Iran-backed militias attacks on US bases with a bombing campaign that is far wider in scope. This results in dozens of civilian casualties as well as militia deaths, including the killing of Kata’ib Hezbollah leader Ahmad al-Hamidawi.

The Finnish presidential election is inconclusive after round one. Pekka Haavisto of the Green League and Alexander Stubb of the National Coalition Party place top two and will face each other in a run-off election in two weeks.

Novak Djokovic wins his 11th Australian Open title. The victory brings his career grand slam count to 25 titles, pulling him ahead of Margaret Court to claim the most slams by a tennis athlete of either gender across all eras.
Monday, January 29th: The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia circuit denies Trump an en banc hearing, upholding the decision of its three-judge panel which rejected Trump’s “presidential immunity” defense. Trump is expected to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.

PRESIDENT BIDEN SUFFERS A STROKE AND IS AIRLIFTED TO WALTER REED HOSPITAL.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Good timeline but a couple of questions

1. What are Biden’s approval ratings and what do GE polls look like?

2. Was the stroke major?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

2. Was the stroke major?

This is one hell of a cliff-hanger, we'll find out in the next post

[Yelnoc]

Good timeline but a couple of questions

1. What are Biden’s approval ratings and what do GE polls look like?

2. Was the stroke major?

You're right, I should add polling data! As two, I think Sanchez has it. Stay tuned!

[Yelnoc]

I just added a few more fun events I had forgotten about such as Japan's first (hopefully!) success lunar landing. A larger update is coming this afternoon!

[Yelnoc]

Walter Reed National Military Medical Center
Tuesday, January 30th, 2024
1:35 AM, Bethesda, MD

White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients stepped out of the hospital unit to make a phone call. This could not wait any longer. He dialed. The Vice President answered on the first ring.

Harris: Hello?

Zients: Hey, sorry if I woke you. The President—

Harris: I heard. How is he?

Zients: He’s awake. They say he’s going to be ok.

Harris: Ok how? Can I talk to him?

Zients: Well….

Harris: Can he talk?

Zients: He’s still recovering. We’re not sure how long it’s going to be.

Harris: I mean, Jeff, he’s had a stroke. And at his age…it could be a while—

Zients: Yeah, well, we’ll see. In the meantime, you’ll need to be briefed. I’ve already called [Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff] General Brown and [NSA Director] General Nakasone and they are ready to brief you at O’six hundred—

Harris: O’six hundred? [Laughs] You have been talking to the generals, I see. Ok, I’ll be...should I come to the Oval Office?

Zients: That would be best, Madam Vice President.

Harris: Ok.

Zients: Good luck.

Harris: Yeah, thanks. Bye.

*   *   *

Vice President Kamala Harris convenes Joe Biden’s cabinet for an emergency meeting at 3pm. All members are present in-person, other than Secretary of State Blinken who is in Tel Aviv working on persuading Israeli President Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in Gaza—Blinken is teleconferenced in. The President’s physician, Dr. Kevin O’Connor, begins the meeting by relaying the President’s state: Biden is awake but almost entirely non-verbal. Doctors expect it will take months of speech therapy before he can converse regularly, and he may never fully regain his speech faculties. Whether his cognitive abilities have been permanently impaired by yesterday’s stroke is not yet clear.

Vice President Harris next asks the cabinet for advice as she steps into the role of acting president. Attorney General Merrick Garland raises the matter of the 25th Amendment, which governs the removal of a President in cases of disability. Chief of Staff Jeff Zients rejects this heatedly as premature, saying Biden must be given more time to recover before such a drastic step is taken. Spirited discussion ensues, with an extended exchanged on President Wilson’s post-stroke presidency.

Harris decides to make no movement on the 25th Amendment question at this time. The question of whether she should address the nation is broached and, after another extended discussion, agreed to be tabled until after an update from Biden’s doctors at Walter Reed hospital tomorrow. The meeting adjourns, though Harris and Blinken stay back, along with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and other relevant members, to conduct a longer briefing on the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The press is entirely fixated on Biden’s health and the implied crisis in the White House. Wall-to-wall coverage on CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC inform the television-bound public on the particulars of the 25th Amendment and introduce (entirely) speculative timelines on when Kamala Harris might invoke the procedure to become the 47th President—and first female president (and first South Asian president)—of the United States. Clips of Harris’s previous public statements, typically compiled to highlight her noted public awkwardness, receive extended airtime. The nation braces for what could be the first mid-term presidential transition since Nixon resigned from office in 1974 under a cloud of scandal.
Wednesday, January 31st: Justice Engoron, presiding over Trump’s civil fraud case in New York over the Trump Organization’s corrupt business practices, waits until the very last day to file his decision on the docket. That decision? Guilty! The Trump Organization is ordered to disband, dealing a significant blow to Trump’s private business operations. Trump explodes on social media, calling Engoron a:

“Deep state creep who is out to get me and my family. He thinks this ruling will DESTROY me but he will see. I’m not going away. Oh no, this is just the BEGINNING!!!” Trump proceeded to gloat over Biden’s recent stroke, saying: “Night Night, Sleepy Joe!!”

The Federal Reserve concludes its monthly meeting, deciding to hold rates steady for the time being. That said, their dot plot shows multiple rate cuts projected for the second half of 2024. Chairman Jerome Powell stresses that these are just projections, that the Federal Reserve remains data-driven and makes its decisions as it meets based on the available evidence. The stock market manages a minor rally in the afternoon on this news, arresting a deep sell off yesterday as markets reacted to Biden’s stroke.

The United States cabinet again meets to discuss President Biden’s condition. The doctors indicate that there has been no substantive change and reiterate that it will be months—in the best-case scenario—before Biden is again ready to work. Debate continues to rage about whether to invoke the 25th amendment before Deputy Secretary of Labor Julie Su makes a simple suggestion: “why not ask Biden what he thinks?” The president, note his doctors, is able to answer simple yes-or-no questions with his body language. The cabinet agrees to the suggestion, and Dr. O’Connor agrees to ask him for his opinion the following morning.
Thursday, February 1st: Day 1 of Black History month. Public schools across the United States pivot their history curriculum to discuss the deeds of Frederick Douglass, Martin Luther King Jr., and George Washington Carver. On American social media, the far-right takes the opportunity to race-bait their audience, warning that CRT and various other acronyms are brain-washing white children to feel guilty about slavery and segregation.

Asked to comment on the matter, Nikki Haley makes a minor gaffe by railing against “Common Core,” an older iteration on the same theme which leaves her audience baffled and provides liberal late night show hosts with plenty of fodder for their jokes. It also leaves the former Governor of South Carolina (2011-2017) open to charges that she is a relic from a previous era who has “no idea what is going on” according one Trump surrogate in an appearance on Sean Hannity’s prime time Fox News show that evening.

Dr. O’Connor attempts poses the question of invoking the 25th Amendment to President Biden on his bed in Walter Reed. First Lady Jill Biden interferes, demanding her husband be given “at least a week” to rest up before any “drastic decisions” are made. The president fails to give a clear answer either way. This saga is relayed back to the cabinet who, after further deliberations, decide to postpone the matter until the weekend. The executive branch continues to run on a kind of autopilot, with Harris very loosely presiding over affairs. Anonymous “high-level” sources begin to criticize the Vice President for not taking a more active role, providing choice quotes to New York Times and Washington Post reporters.
Friday, February 2nd: The US government enters total shutdown after the second appropriations deadline passes. Congressional negotiators have been working feverishly for months to find a compromise acceptable to both parties that would fund the government, secure the southern border, and provide additional military aid to Israel and Ukraine. However, no package appears acceptable to the die-hard edge of the Freedom Caucus. With George Santos’s seat vacant until the February 13th special election, Speaker Johnson can only afford three defections, leaving the beleaguered Louisiana Republican with no room to maneuver.

In a so-called “Black Friday,” US stock markets plunge, with the S&P loosing 7% of its value by the afternoon, triggering the “Level 1” circuit breaker at 3:05. Trading is halted for 15 minutes before being allowed to resume. The S&P is down 11% at the close, the largest single-day decline since the onset of the covid-19 pandemic in March of 2020. The feeling of uncertainty in both the executive and legislative branches has Wall Street spooked. A flurry of phone calls descends on Washington that evening as spooked financiers cajole Republican representatives to find compromise and end the shutdown before Monday in hopes of preventing another major sell-off.
Saturday, February 3rd: The South Carolina Democratic primary sees Biden cruise to victory, despite his uncertain condition, winning 53% to Phillips’ 28% and Williamson’s 19%. This election sees an unusually high number of spoiled ballots, as many primary goers try to write-in Kamala Harris’s name or leave the Democratic primary ballot blank.

In Washington, Congressional leaders are locked in all-day negotiations to find a compromise. The Freedom Caucus extremist refuse to budge, and the question in the air appears to be whether Speaker Johnson will follow his predecessor—McCarthy—and compromise with the Democratic Party at the expense of his own job. Or, will he cave to his right flank and let the shutdown extend into the business week, to the fury of the nation’s financial community? The question remains unresolved as talks run past midnight.

Russian planes begin flying over Ukrainian airspace all but unchallenged, as Ukrainian’s stockpile of surface-to-air missiles have by this point been expended. Russian bombers do severe damage to Ukrainian defensive positions, as well as to Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure away from the front, killing dozens of Kyiv civilians in night-time raids on the capitol.

This has been a relatively quiet week for US forces in the middle east. Attacks by Houthi forces and Iraqi militias on US targets have subsided. Western analysts believe the abatement is directed by Tehran, where the Islamic Republic has adopted a wait-and-see approach regarding US middle east policy under the new Harris administration.

Israel’s wars continue to stagnate on both fronts, its troops taking severe casualties in the fight against Hamas. Meanwhile, domestic support for Netanyahu’s government continues to plummet as Hezbollah’s missiles penetrate the Iron Dome and Israeli soldiers come home in body bags. The Israeli government indicates openness to another ceasefire in Gaza to Egyptian intermediaries with Hamas, and talks are scheduled to begin within days.

[Yelnoc]

I do not seem to be able to embed images anymore. Does anyone know why that might be, by chance?

[Steve from Lambeth]

Image code does work. For whatever reason, it just doesn't work with that particular image.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Image code does work. For whatever reason, it just doesn't work with that particular image.

Yeah, I think licensed images (like Getty, etc) do not work but others do, IIRC.

[Yelnoc]

Image code does work. For whatever reason, it just doesn't work with that particular image.

Yeah, I think licensed images (like Getty, etc) do not work but others do, IIRC.

Ah that's a bummer, thanks for the heads up!

[Yelnoc]

Walter Reed National Military Medical Center
Sunday, February 4th, 2024
7:45 AM, Bethesda, MD

Chief of Staff Jeff Zients held his phone to the President’s ear so that Biden could hear his campaign manager, Julie Chávez Rodríguez, share the good news from South Carolina. The President grinned—a gruesomely lopsided gesture which exposed the rigidity of the left side of his face. Zients then shared the positive news out of the Middle East—the Iranians were holding back and the Israelis, exhausted from four months of fighting on multiple fronts, appeared ready to agree to a Gaza ceasefire. Real peace negotiations might finally be about to get off the ground.

Zients then turned to Dr. O’Connor, the president’s personal physician, who took the cue and began to speak. The first lady immediately cut the doctor off, saying Joe was tired and needed his rest. Biden interrupted her, slurring “let him say! [sic]” O’Connor cleared his throat and once again informed the President that his cabinet was considering whether to remove him via the 25th Amendment and would like his input, if possible.

Biden was silent for a long time. Tears welled up and flowed down his cheeks, staining his pallid flesh saline. The first lady again began to protest, only to be cut off by a sharp exhortation from the President. He raised his trembled right hand and made a crooked thumbs up. “Ok, Jack. O-K.”

*   *   *

The Presidential cabinet greets Joe’s decision with a sigh of relief. White House Counsel Ed Siskel drafts a notice to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate and Speaker of the House indicating Joe Biden’s inability to perform his duties as President of the United States. Vice President Kamala Harris signs the letters, thus invoking Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution. The messages are immediately carried to Capitol Hill and received by Speaker Johnson and President Pro Tempore Patty Murray. As Biden does not issue any declaration of fitness, Harris’s motion is undisputed and she assumes the powers of the Presidency, becoming effectively the 47th President of the United States.

The White House immediately turns its attention to orchestrating Middle East peace talks. Israeli negotiators were even now in Cairo, meeting with Hamas’s representatives through Egyptian facilitators. It appeared that the broad outlines of the so-called “Egyptian Peace Plan” were being seriously considered by Netanyahu’s beleaguered cabinet. The three-stage plan put forward by Egypt late last year entailed an initial cessation of hostilities for at least a week and the release of all remaining Israeli civilian hostages held in Gaza; then a week in which female Israeli soldiers would be released in return for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails; and finally a month-long negotiation period for the release of male soldiers in exchange for Israeli withdrawal.

The plan was promising. Harris wanted to find a way to link the Gaza peace process to a ceasefire and similar peace process in Lebanon with Hezbollah. That war was proving even bloodier than the Gaza war, as the two sides were far more evenly matched. Blinken cautioned Harris that such an approach was fraught with danger, that there remained strong support for the Hezbollah war with the Israeli government and that linking the two could cause the Gaza process to stall. Nonetheless, Blinken agreed to arrange a phone call between Harris and Netanyahu for as soon as possible.

The White House is also preoccupied with what to do about Ukraine. The country is being shredded by Russian bombing which appears to be targeted at softening up their lines ahead of an early spring offensive. Even worse, President Zelensky has lost popular support and, according to NSA Director Gen. Nakasone, Ukrainian commander-in-chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi appears to be entertaining talk of launching a coup from anti-Zelensky political elements.

The late-night conversations on what to do regarding Ukraine are interrupted by news that Congress has agreed to a last-minute, bipartisan compromise. In the end, Speaker Johnson chose country over party and led the McCarthyite faction across the aisle to join with Democrats to fund the government through the end of the fiscal year. Harris immediately signs the spending bill and federal government is reopened just before the clock strikes midnight.

Johnson’s spending compromise used a continuing resolution which, per the previous year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act, will implement an across-the-board 1 percent spending reduction, to be enacted on May 1st. The CR failed to provide additional funding either for “the Border” or Ukraine, making everyone unhappy. The speaker will try to spin this result to his caucus as a victory, but another Speaker battle appears to loom on the horizon.
Monday, February 5th: Stocks majorly rebound on the news of Harris’s ascension and the signing of a continuing resolution. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 remains in bear territory.

Congressman Bob Goode (R-VA) files a “motion to vacate,” calling for a vote on whether to retain Speaker Mike Johnson to occur within two days and setting up another crisis of leadership in the House.

Harris and Netanyahu have their first phone call since her ascension to the presidency. Harris praises the Israeli leader for entering ceasefire negotiations and expresses hope that a permanent peace can be found soon. Netanyahu broaches the subject of more military aid, saying that Israel needs additional weapons and munitions shipments to be able to continue its “defense” against Hezbollah. Harris attempts to sidestep the question and broaches the idea of beginning ceasefire negotiations with the Lebanese paramilitary organization. Netanyahu reacts negatively to this suggestion, stating that Israel will not “lie down in submission to the enemies of the Jewish people,” and ends the call.

Reports of the conversation immediately leak to the press in the United States and Israel, all painting President Harris in the worst light possible. Pro-Israel pundits paint her as an inept politician who is in over her head and who is no friend to Israel or, implicitly, the Jewish people. Her primary opponent Dean Phillips seizes on the moment, pivoting to portray himself as Zionist hawk. Senator Joe Manchin, in off-the-cuff comments given to reporters on Capitol Hill, makes his strongest statement yet teasing an independent run on the “No Labels” ballot line, saying American needs an “experienced leader who knows who our friends are.”

Unperturbed, Harris delivers a speech to the nation that evening. Broadcast on all networks, Harris’s address is intended to assure Americans that the nation is good hands and that constitutional procedures were followed. The short speech summarizes the challenges the administration faces and calls on “members of congress” to “seek compromise, not divide into faction.” Though the content of her speech is generally well-received, it is somewhat marred by some verbal missteps in what will become a running theme in her public appearances.
Tuesday, February 6th: The Nevada Democratic primary is the first contest held after Kamala Harris’s ascension. Coming two days after the transfer of power, it is a particularly messy affair. Harris did not make it on the ballot; however, the incapacitated Joseph R. Biden’s name was listed. Marianne Williamson appeared on the ballot; however, Dean Phillips had failed to file for ballot access thus dealing a major blow in his campaign to be taken seriously. In addition to Biden and Williamson, nearly a dozen other Democrats with zero name recognition are on the ballot.

Nevada Democratic Primary Results
Biden – 47%
Williamson – 44%
Others – 9%

While Williamson tries to celebrate her victory as a win, the results indicate that she has no path forward, despite the chaos. It also underlines that a near majority of Democratic primary voters are willing to vote for a stroked-out placeholder over any representative of the party’s left-wing fringe. None of the “others” listed on the ballot manage to gain any traction off their better-than-expected showings.

Nevada also holds a Republican Primary. However, this is not the contest that awards delegates; the Nevada Republican caucuses scheduled for two days later are the real prize. Because of this, Trump is not on the ballot, and Nikki Haley scores an overwhelming and irrelevant victory.

The House votes to vacate Mike Johnson’s speakership. All 214 Democrats vote in favor and are joined by Goode and a handful of other Republican congressman. The GOP could only afford three defections. The motion passes, and the office of Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is again empty. Johnson was speaker for only three and a half months, the shortest term of any speaker after Theodore M. Pomeroy who served for one day in 1869.

As the office of the Vice President is also empty, Senate President Pro Tempore Patty Murray is now next in line to succeed Kamala Harris. The Harris administration begins discussions on who to nominate to succeed her as Vice President. They are looking for a “Sargent Shriver figure,” someone who can unify the party and be respected by the opposition as they will need to be confirmed by a majority vote of both chambers of congress. No names jump off the list.

The peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas are held up by the latter’s demand that Israel also agree to a week-long truce with Hezbollah while the last Israeli prisoners are exchanged. The war with Hezbollah has become the center-piece of Israeli domestic focus, and Netanyahu rejects the demand out of hand as unworkable. When news of this rejection reaches Tel Aviv, elements within the unity government begin to call for Netanyahu’s removal in order to facilitate the return of the hostages and a pause to the divisive northern war.
Wednesday, February 7th: Stocks dive after Mike Johnson is vacated from the speakership and President Harris’s spat with Netanyahu reverberates through the financial world. There remains great uncertainty in the US political system on Wall Street.

Trump holds a huge campaign rally in Las Vegas on the eve of the Republican caucuses. The former president works his old magic, firing up the manic crowd with taunts at Biden and Harris and diatribes against “deranged Jack Smith” and “crazy lady Haley.”

Netanyahu’s government reverses course and agrees to week-long ceasefires, effective immediately, in both Gaza and Lebanon in order to facilitate the return of the remaining hostages. Thus his opponents within and without the government shelve their plans to attempt to remove him democratically—for the time being.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is reelected to a fifth term by an overwhelming margin. Though international observers consider these elections carefully managed, there is no denying that Aliyev is flying high on popular support for his annexation of the formerly Armenian-majority Republic of Artsakh.

The Washington Post publishes a front-page column making the case for Harris to nominate Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as Vice President. The column is poorly received in the larger media ecosystem; many commentators expect that the ambitious former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana had the story planted as part of a lobbying effort to push himself into the number 2 spot. Anonymous comment from Harris insiders indicate that Buttigieg is “not under serious consideration.”

[Yelnoc]

Nevada Republican Caucuses
Thursday, February 8th, 2024
All Day, All Across Nevada

Trump scores a big win in the Nevada Republican caucuses, beating Haley by huge margin. The Haley campaign blows off the result as irrelevant, saying she is “all in” on winning her home state of South Carolina. Hutchinson, the only other vaguely serious candidate in the race, did not appear on the ballot for Nevada caucus-goers. Meanwhile, Trump runs on the table on Haley in the Virgin Islands territorial caucuses.

Trump gives a jubilant but menacing victory speech in Las Vegas. Declaring he's "back," he warns his enemies that there will be "swift justice" once he returns to the White House. The speech causes an uproar in the liberal press, with commentators on MSNBC and elsewhere opining the former president is openly taunting his intention to establish a dictatorship.

Nevada Republican Caucus Results
Trump – 63%
Haley –  35%
Others – 2%

Virgin Islands Republican territorial Caucus Results
Trump – 81%
Haley – 19%

The first batch of a dozen Israeli hostages are successfully exchanged, prompting an outpouring of celebration and relief in Israel.

Pakistan’s general elections are a victory for three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, recently recalled from exile to serve as the de facto puppet of Pakistan’s army. International observers consider these elections fraudulent, as do the supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who claim the contest was entirely rigged.
Friday, February 9th: The House Republican conference nominates Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik. However, she withdraws her candidacy before a floor vote later that day after it is clear more than three members of her conference would defect in a floor vote.

Enormous street demonstrations break out across Pakistan, organized by the remnants of Imran Khan’s PTI party. These protests are met with violent force by the Pakistani military.

NATO launches Steadfast Defender, the largest military exercise since the cold war. This draws protest from the Russian government and concern from international observers, some of whom fear massive military exercises on the outskirts of the War in Ukraine could be inviting an accidental, major escalation.

The Supreme Court of the United States reverses the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court in Anderson v. Griswold. In a 9-0 decision, the court argues that the Colorado court acted improperly in ruling Trump ineligible for the Colorado ballot on Fourteenth Amendment grounds, as the former president has not yet been convicted of insurrection. By implication, if any court does convict Trump of insurrection, as federal prosecutor Jack Smith intends to do, the former president will be ineligible to appear on any ballots in November.
Saturday, February 10th: Harris submits to the Senate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her nominee to fill the vacant Vice Presidency. The nomination creates a stir. Democrats general consider Walz, a two-term governor and chair of the Democratic Governors Association, a solid and inoffensive pick. Many Republicans, however, react negatively to Walz, whose record of legislative accomplishments in the wake of the DFL winning a trifecta in the 2022 midterms lead conservatives to label the governor a bleeding liberal.

Russia’s sustained earlier campaign has weakened Ukrainian lines enough to allow a sustained push towards Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian military forces rally and dig in to defend the city but are harried by Russian control of the airspace. On the home front, cries for peace and for Zelensky to step down grow louder.

The Pakistani military, in coordination with police forces, launches pre-dawn raids across the country to arrest allies of Imran Khan in the name of “restoring order” after two days of mass riots.

The second batch of Israeli hostages is delayed by Hamas, who demand additional aid convoys be allowed across the border first. The demands are effectively seconded by the United Nations, who report that thousands of Gazans are beginning to die of disease and starvation, and that the number of civilian deaths is poised to skyrocket. The Israeli government expresses consternation at the new demands.
Sunday, February 11th: The Baltimore Ravens beat the Dallas Cowboys to win Super Bowl LVIII in Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas.

Finish Presidential Election, Round 2: Stubb (NCP) defeats Haavisto (Green).

Joe Biden photographed exiting Walter Reed hospital in a wheelchair pushed by a Secret Service agent. After a two-week stay in the hospital, the former president is transported to his home in Delaware where he will continue his rehabilitation efforts.
Monday, February 12th: Judge Chutkan in DC provisionally pushes back the start of Trump’s criminal trial by six weeks to April 8th, pending SCOTUS’s ruling on his appeal to have the case thrown out based on his immunity defense.

The Senate votes by a narrow majority in favor of Tim Walz as Vice President. Now the House of Representatives must take up the matter. With no Speaker, it will be a while before they are able to do so, and with the Republican majority, many pundits predict Walz will never be confirmed by the current congress.

NATO’s Steadfast Defender military exercises end without incident.

The Israeli government agrees to Hamas’s demand for additional aid. Hundreds of aid trucks which were waiting in Egypt stream across the border, bringing badly needed food, medicine, and other supplies to the Gaza strip. The Israeli government was moved not just by international pressure, but also by domestic pressure as sympathy for the plight of the Gazans begins to take ship in Israeli civil society. That night, the second batch of Israeli hostages is exchanged.
Tuesday, February 13th: Mardi Gras celebrations in New Orleans are marred by a mass shooting which police believe to be gang-related. Five people are killed and half a dozen more injured.

The special election to replace George Santos in New York’s Third Congressional district is a Democratic victory as Thomas Suozzi wins by less than one percentage point.

The House Republican caucus nominates Republican Study Committee Chair Kevin Hern, after a contentious vote. He loses a floor vote after more than three moderate republicans defect.
Wednesday, February 14th: Valentine's Day sees couples flock to restaurants to celebrate. Market bulls on CNBC and elsewhere to point to the exuberance as proof that the fundamentals of the US economy are still sound, and that the current bear market is fully driven by external shocks and should soon correct.

The third and final batch of Israeli hostages are exchanged. The ceasefire is extended by another week as the parties work on the second leg of the Egyptian peace plan which calls for the release of female Israeli prisoners in return for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Lebanon collectively holds its breath as the truce between Israel and Hezbollah expires.

The Indonesian general elections result in a big win for the Advanced Indonesia Coalition; its Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto is projected to win the second round in a landslide.

[Prez_zf]

This is scarily plausible...

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This is scarily plausible...

I agree apart from Haley doing inexplicably well.

[Gass3268]

Yeah this is heading towards a civil war.

[Yelnoc]

US Capitol Building
Thursday, February 15th, 2024
3:30 PM, Washington, D.C.

Mark Green, the Republican representative from Tennessee’s 7th Congressional district, climbed the podium to the speaker’s chair. The past week and a half had been a whirl wind. Ever since that rabble-rouser Bob Goode had introduced the motion to vacate spelling the end of Speaker Mike Johnson’s the days, the House had been at an uproarious standstill. Successive caucus meetings and votes had produced one speaker, than another. And now, after all if it, Mark Green was the man with the gavel.

Green felt he was ready. He had been marked for leadership from the beginning of his congressional career. Elected in 2018, his colleagues had elected him President of the Freshman class of Republican representatives. They returned the honor the following term, elected him President of the Sophomore class. But his leadership experience ran deeper than those honors. He was a West Point graduate who had served tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, having famously interviewed Saddam Hussein for six hours after American forces captured the ousted dictator hiding in an underground bunker.

Green carried with him a sense of purpose. Yes, there were many troubles abroad. But the United States faced crucial issues at home. The southern border had descended into a zone of lawlessness. Cartels trafficked fentanyl through a porous, desert membrane that also allowed an unprecedented flow of unvetted, illegal immigrants. Green had been a key author of “Secure the Border Act,” the “most conservative border security legislation ever to pass the House of Representatives” according to his campaign website. Now, he was in a position to push the envelope further.

The Tennessean had won the trust of his Republican colleagues for his legislative leadership and steadfast conservative principals. They had been let down by successive leaders who, when the rubber hit the road, compromised with the liberal left rather than make tough choices. Now it was his turn, and as long as he was in charge, he would do everything in his power to ensure that the United States was secure. Green allowed himself a quiet smile and brought the gavel down as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

*   *   *

The judge in Trump’s NY criminal trial elects to keep the trial’s start date at March 25th.

Israel issues its peace demands to Hezbollah. If the militia desires peace, they must withdraw behind the Litani River. Failure to do so within 48 hours will result in a resumption of the campaign, declares Netanyahu’s government.
Friday, February 16th: Zaporizhzhia falls to the Russian advance up the east bank of the Dnipro River.

Negotiations break down over Israel’s demands that Hezbollah withdraw behind the Litani River, coupled with the complete lack of agreement on a workable plan for Gaza after the war. The Israeli government has moved into support of plans for the introduction of settlements into the Gaza Strip—a non-starter for Hezbollah, Hamas, and all other parties to the negotiations. Netanyahu declares he can no longer allow the enemies of Israel to “recuperate and rearm” and announces military operations will resume immediately.

The International Court of Justice issues a provisional ruling on South Africa’s allegations that Israel’s conduct in Palestine amounts to an apartheid regime. The ICJ’s ruling is in favor of South Africa; the court finds that the restrictions implemented in the West Bank meet the standard of apartheid. Israel denounces the ruling as unjust, calling the ICJ a “Kangaroo Court.” Allies of Israeli in the US and elsewhere denounce the court’s findings as “anti-Semitic.”
Saturday, February 17th: Trump appears at his first debate of the cycle, facing Haley on a stage in South Carolina a week before the palmetto state’s primary election. In a classic Trump performance that commentators say harkens back to his 2016 swagger, Trump eviscerates Haley, calling her a fake and a psycho. He accuses her of being both a warmonger and weakling, winning thunderous applause from audiences present in person as well as on the other side of a screen—no matter the contradictions embedded in his attacks. Audiences agree that Trump clearly won the exchange, and politicos wonder whether Haley made a mistake in goading the former president onto stage.

Israel resumes its bombing campaign against Hezbollah, dashing the hopes of Lebanese civilians and killing dozens. The Shi'ite paramilitary responds by resuming its missile attacks, resulting in civilian casualties in Tel Aviv and elsewhere in northern Israeli. Hamas begins stalling the negotiations on the exchange of Israeli female soldiers for the release of Palestinian prisoners in protest of Israeli’s resumption of hostilities against their ally.

The last day of Rio de Janeiro’s carnival festivities. Now, the country looks ahead to a resumption of political drama, as expectations rise that former President Jair Bolsonaro will be formally charged with a litany of alleged crimes committed during his turbulent presidency, including inciting the January 2023 uprising that sought to bring down the government of his successor, Lula da Silva.

Oleksandr Usyk defeats Tyson Fury in Riyadh to become the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world.
Sunday, February 18th: Israel dramatically restricts the amount of aid trucks to cross into Gaza in response to Hamas’s pro-Hezbollah moves in the peace negotiations in Cairo. This prompts an international outcry led by Sigrid Kaag, the UN coordinator for Gaza aid. Kaag declares that if aid remains cut off much longer, deaths from disease and famine could bring the Gaza death toll from its current 30,000 up rapidly towards 100,000.

Mass protests are held around the world against Israel withdrawal from the Egyptian peace process and against Israel’s relationship of control regarding Palestine, spurred on by the recent ICJ provisional ruling declaring Israel and “apartheid state.” While western countries all see large protests, the most massive and politically salient events are in the middle east, specifically in Cairo and Amman. Both states crackdown on the protests, generating scenes of civic unrest which circulate rapidly across the Arab world.

Agents of Ukrainian General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi deliver Zelensky an ultimatum: resign or be removed from office. The demand comes on the heels of collapsing morale and a concern among western intelligence that the Ukrainian army may not be able to stand and fight much longer.
Monday, February 19th: Kamala Harris’s makes her public appearance as President at an event on the White House lawn in honor of president’s day. In a segment on assassinations, an event organizer asks Harris a question about President Garfield, to which she attempts to crack a joke, shouting “lasagna!” and then forcing a laugh which is cut and remixed on TikTok and elsewhere. Thus is born Harris’s first viral gaffe, a moment which reinforces her “phony” image (calling back to Trump’s favored nickname for her on the campaign trail in 2020 when she was Joe Biden’s running mate).

Netanyahu declares the Gaza truce over. The Israeli bombing campaign against Hamas targets resumes. While conducting at a lower intensity than earlier, the bombing results in the resumption of civilian casualties, causing renewed international condemnation.

Zelensky resigns under pressure. He and his family flee to Israel. Vice President Yulia Svyrydenko succeeds him as president of Ukraine.
Tuesday, February 20th: The House takes up Tim Walz’s nomination for Vice President and rejects it on a party-line vote. Thus the post remains unfulfilled and Republican Speaker Mark Green next-in-line to succeed President Harris.

Congress then begins working towards a new aid package for Israel. This is complicated by demands from left and right. On the Republican side, Speaker Green indicates he intends to bring the Israel aid package to the floor in tandem with funding for more stringent border security measures. This decision mirror’s Speaker Johnson’s tactics regarding tying Ukraine aid (which is rapidly becoming a matter of “too little, too late”) to immigration reform. Despite the precedent, the move draws the ire of pro-Israel voices in Congress, including within the speaker’s own party.

Meanwhile, President Harris communicates a desire for additional aid to Israel to be conditioned on movement by Netanyahu’s government back to the negotiating table. Some read this as a conciliatory gesture towards her left flank. Harris has been assailed by peace activists demanding an end to the “massacres” in Gaza and Lebanon since the moment she took office; the ICJ’s ruling only upped the heat on her as she navigated her late entry to the Democratic presidential primaries. Also of pressing concern is the rapid spread of famine and disease, with the UN warning that the Gaza death toll could soon become “parabolic” if aid Israel continues to restrict the flow of aid.

However, her demand that aid to Israel be conditional prompted a sharp negative reaction from pro-Israel voices which immediately eclipsed any reaction to Speaker Green and dominated the news cycle. West Virginia senator Joe Manchin was filmed outside the Senate chamber delivering an impassioned tirade against the President, opining that America needed a leader who was “strong, decisive, unbound by concerns of party or faction—someone who knows who our allies are and who is willing to defend American interests abroad.” The rant brought speculation that the maverick Democrat intended to run for President on the non-partisan “No Labels” ballot line.
Wednesday, February 21st: Ukrainian President Svyrydenko asks Putin for a ceasefire, which the Russian leader agrees to.
Thursday, February 22nd: The ten-year anniversary of President Viktor Yanukovych's flight from Ukraine is marked by despondency in Kyiv as the citizens of the capitol contemplate their likely return to Russian domination, pending the result of ongoing negotiations. Nonetheless, the citizens of Ukraine are war weary. Most feel abandoned and betrayed by the west; a great deal of anger is brewing in the more radical corners of society.

Houthi missiles hit commercial vessels traveling through the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal. The resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping raises the possibility of a renewed US bombing campaign on Houthi targets in Yemen.
Friday, February 23rd: The Republic of Turkey agrees to host and mediate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. This is announced on the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Commentators fear that the best time for Ukraine to agree to talks has passed, with its armies collapsing in the field and its government on shaky domestic footing.
Polling Update

South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary – RCP Average
Donald Trump – 51%
Nikki Haley – 47%
Asa Hutchinson – 2%

General Election Polling – Harvard-Harris
Donald Trump – 39%
Kamala Harris – 34%
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. – 27%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Thank God Zelensky has left the scene!

[Gass3268]

Seriously doubt Zelensky would flee to a country has provided zero support to him during the war. I have to imagine he'd go to the somewhere in the Anglosphere.

[Prez_zf]

What pressure is Zelensky facing? The fact that hee has led his country thru a war that by this point has lasted more than 2 years and is still a stalemate shouldn't be a reason to get rid of him...