This is the 2032 map. What happened?

[Schiff for Senate]

Close states: FL (R+6.7), NE01 (R+6.4), TX (R+4.6), KS (R+3.7), PA (R+2.6), AZ (R+2.3), AK (R+1.7), ME02 (R+1.6), NV (R+0.9), MI (R+0.2), NC (D+0.1), WI (D+0.4), NH (D+4.5)
Selected other results: NJ (D+24.5), NY (D+18.7), NE (R+9.7), OR (D+11.0), HI (D+43.7)

[°Leprechaun]

Depending on who wins in 2024 this could be a plausible map.
Right now, Democrats may have a slight disadvantage.
If a Democrat is elected in 2028, they may have an advantage in 2032.
My prediction is that 2024, 2028, and  2032 will be be close elections.
The Democrats will have a disadvantage in 2032 if there are no significant shifts in swing states.
Democrats may have an advantage if the GOP becomes less popular.

[°Leprechaun]

Close states: FL (R+6.7), NE01 (R+6.4), TX (R+4.6), KS (R+3.7), PA (R+2.6), AZ (R+2.3), AK (R+1.7), ME02 (R+1.6), NV (R+0.9), MI (R+0.2), NC (D+0.1), WI (D+0.4), NH (D+4.5)
Selected other results: NJ (D+24.5), NY (D+18.7), NE (R+9.7), OR (D+11.0), HI (D+43.7)

Is it possible that the population  projections could be slightly off and this would be a 269-269 tie?

By the way, we will likely see a lot of threads about 2028 before November.

[Schiff for Senate]

Close states: FL (R+6.7), NE01 (R+6.4), TX (R+4.6), KS (R+3.7), PA (R+2.6), AZ (R+2.3), AK (R+1.7), ME02 (R+1.6), NV (R+0.9), MI (R+0.2), NC (D+0.1), WI (D+0.4), NH (D+4.5)
Selected other results: NJ (D+24.5), NY (D+18.7), NE (R+9.7), OR (D+11.0), HI (D+43.7)

Is it possible that the population  projections could be slightly off and this would be a 269-269 tie?

By the way, we will likely see a lot of threads about 2028 before November.

It's possible. Overall delta is:
ID: +1
AZ: +1
MT: -1
TX: +1
FL: +1
MI: -1
GA: +1
MN: -1
AL: -1
RI: -1

ID and MT cancel out, AZ and AL cancel out, MN and GA cancel out, MI and FL cancel out. TX (R) gains a district, at the expense of RI (D).

So under the 2020 numbers it would be a 269-269 tie. If that net balance remained in the 2030s, it would be a tie still. But states like TX and FL are guaranteed to gain districts, while some combination of MN, NY, CA, IL, PA, RI probably gonna lose some seats (although AL, MI and OH will too). So I'd expect the reallocation to benefit the GOP.


Anyway I did edit some of the numbers again: NJ -1, KS +1, CA -1, OH -1, NC +1, NY -2, MT +1 (so back to irl), AZ +1 (so +2 from irl) and CO +1.