Saskatchewan 2007

[Hash]

The election date remains unknown.

A 24/4/2007 poll gave the following result:

Saskatchewan Party 55%
NDP 29%
Liberal 10%
Green 6%

A 12/10/2006 poll gave this:

Saskatchewan Party 44%
NDP 31%
Liberal 25%
Green --%

In 2003 the NDP won 44.68% or 30 seats and the Sask. Party won 39.35% or 28 seats. Liberals won 14.18% but no seats. The Greens won 0.55% (beaten by Western Independence Party ).

Nodice.ca seat predictions gives this for the 04/24 poll:

Saskatchewan Party 57 (+29)
NDP 1 (-29)
Liberal 0 (=)
Green 0 (=)

[merseysider]

From what I've heard the Saskatchewan NDP seem like a decent bunch of people, but it is always going to be hard going fighting for re-election when you've been in power for 16 years.

A SP majority of the kind forecast by the poll is not beyond the realms of possibility; I believe the Tories won a similarly huge margin in 1982.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls in Saskatchewan have a habit of being rather dodgy. But it would be surprising if the SP didn't win this time round.

[Verily]

Bear in mind that the NDP was way behind in the run-up to the 2003 election and managed to actually increase their share of the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Saskatchewan Party 57 (+29)
NDP 1 (-29)
Liberal 0 (=)
Green 0 (=)

LOL!

Scary sh*t

I sure hope it doesn't turn out that way. I doubt it, since Regina and Saskatoon seem to be pretty friendly NDP areas.. and the north as well; but if it has happened before...

I don't hear an awful lot about Saskatchewan politics, so I have no idea why they are so anti-NDP all of a sudden. Perhaps the economy's not going so well.

[merseysider]

One thing which should worry the NDP in Saskatchewan is that since the last provincial election there have been two federal elections (2004 and 2006) and both times the NDP failed to win any seats in Saskatchewan. This is despite the fact it is their traditional stronghold - home of the first social democratic government in North America. Tommy Douglas must be turning in his grave!

[Speed of Sound]

Are these Regionalist Parties popular in all of the provinces, or are Sask. and Quebec the only ones, and what effect could more of these parties cropping up have?

[Verily]

Are these Regionalist Parties popular in all of the provinces, or are Sask. and Quebec the only ones, and what effect could more of these parties cropping up have?

There's also a Yukon Party. They're generally the result of the Progressive Conservatives in the province renaming themselves when the PCs became massively unpopular nationally in the early 1990s, though the local Quebec parties are an entirely different phenomenon. The Saskatchewan Party and the Yukon Party aren't regionalist, just conservative.

Each province has its own group of local parties that only occasionally correlates well with the national parties. Here's a list, ordered by number of seats in each province:

The Yukon
Yukon Party
Liberal Party
New Democratic Party

British Columbia
BC Liberal Party (unconnected to the national Liberals and quite conservative)
New Democratic Party

Alberta
Progressive Conservative Party
Liberal Party
New Democratic Party
Alberta Alliance

Saskatchewan
New Democratic Party
Saskatchewan Party

Manitoba
New Democratic Party
Progressive Conservative Party
Liberal Party

Ontario
Liberal Party
Progressive Conservative Party
New Democratic Party

Quebec
Parti liberal du Quebec / Quebec Liberal Party
Action democratique du Quebec
Parti quebecois

New Brunswick
Liberal Party
Progressive Conservative Party

Nova Scotia
Progressive Conservative Party
New Democratic Party
Liberal Party

Prince Edward Island
Progressive Conservative Party
Liberal Party

Newfoundland and Labrador
Progressive Conservative Party
Liberal Party
New Democratic Party

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Sask Party is an unholy coalition of ex-PC's (for various reasons, much of them related to the astonishingly corrupt (and worse) PC government in the '80's, the PC label in Saskatchewan became even more of a drag than elsewhere), ex-provincial Liberals and federal Reform types who crossed over into provincial politics.

[Speed of Sound]

Ugh....trying to juggle multiple nations' political systems at the same time is tough. Thank you for advancing my knowledge.

[Hash]

New poll (10/30/07)

Sask 54.2% 44 seats
NDP 33.7% 14 seats
Liberal 8%
Green 3.6%

Actually, the Liberal vote would be down from 2003, when its leader had such high hopes for 2007.

Election tommorow.

[Harry Hayfield]

My forecast based on that poll
Sask 40 seats (+12)
New Democrats 18 seats (-12)
Sask majority of 22

GAINS
Meadow Lake, Moose Jaw North, Regina South, Regina, Qu'Appelle Valley, Regina, Wascana Plains, Saskatchewan Rivers, Saskatoon, Eastview, Saskatoon, Greystone, Saskatoon, Meewasin, Saskatoon, Sutherland, The Battlefords, Yorkton (all from NDP)

Best Green performances
Prince Albert, Northcote (16.7%)
Regina, Elphinstone-Centre (16.2%)
Saskatoon, Nutana (16.0%)
Saskatchewan Rivers (15.2%)

[Hatman 🍁]

polls close in 24 minutes

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP's doing better than expected so far, but still losing 27-24

[Hatman 🍁]

live streaming... http://www.cbc.ca/video/popup.html?http://www.cbc.ca/livemedia/cbcvideo.asx

[Hatman 🍁]

The Saskatchewan Party has won

[Verily]

34-24, looks like (though three NDP members are not yet declared elected). The Liberals performed dismally everywhere except where there leader ran, and even there they came in third.

[cp]

As it should be.

[minionofmidas]

New poll (10/30/07)

Sask 54.2% 44 seats
NDP 33.7% 14 seats
Liberal 8%
Green 3.6%

Final (?) result from Wikipedia:
Sask 52.2% 37 seats
NDP 36.2% 21 seats
Liberal 9.3%
Green 2.0%

my forecast (...)
GAINS
Meadow Lake, Moose Jaw North, Regina South, Regina, Qu'Appelle Valley, Regina, Wascana Plains, Saskatchewan Rivers, Saskatoon, Eastview, Saskatoon, Greystone, Saskatoon, Meewasin, Saskatoon, Sutherland, The Battlefords, Yorkton (all from NDP)

Final list:
Moose Jaw North, Prince Albert Carlton, Regina South, Regina Qu'Appelle Valley, Regina Wascana Plains, Saskatchewan Rivers, Saskatoon Greystone, Saskatoon Sutherland
So, 7 switches correctly predicted, 5 seats wrongly predicted to fall, just 1 seat wrongly predicted to hold, and of course 45 seats (including the 28 Sask Party holds) correctly predicted to hold. Pretty damn good, really.

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These, on the other hand...
Northcote 2.4%
Elphinstone 5.4%
Nutana 4.1%
Rivers not contested.

[Hash]

36-22 it looks like, Sask Party has won

[Verily]

36-22 it looks like, Sask Party has won

Ah, yes, REFOOORM wins. I'm sure you loved the Reform Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

36-22 it looks like, Sask Party has won

Ah, yes, REFOOORM wins. I'm sure you loved the Reform Party.

He just hates the NDP.

Well, all that Green on the map is not for the Green Party. The Greens did sh*tty and the Liberals did sh**tty as well. I'm glad neither won any seats. Keeping Saskatchewan in a 2 party system will be the best for the NDP in the future.

[Hatman 🍁]

BTW, uploaded a map to the gallery showing the Liberal popular vote by riding.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A much more dignified defeat that I'd been expecting/dreading. Expect the NDP to be back fairly soon; if not at the next election, then the one after that. Saskatchewan is one place in which politics really is cyclical.

BTW, uploaded a map to the gallery showing the Liberal popular vote by riding.

1. Looks at map.
2. Sns.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NDP holding Meadow Lake is amusing. For why, go check who the Sask Party candidate was...