Bush's demographic key to victory in Ohio: the state's African American vote

[UWS]

The outcome of the 2004 election came down to Ohio as this state has made the difference in bringing President George W. Bush with 286 electoral votes. As I watched the results in Ohio, I saw that President Bush made significant progress among Ohio African American voters with a 7 percent increase compared to 2000 and obtaining 16 % of that state's African American electorate that accounted for 10 % of the vote in Ohio and helping Dubya win Cincinnati and to perform well in Columbus and ensuring his win in state of Ohio

https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html

[mileslunn]

Not sure if that alone did it.  Helped but I also think security helped hold GOP strength in Columbus and Cincinnati metro area while his social conservativism helped bring out some White Evangelicals who stayed home in 2000.

[Person Man]

Maybe that DUI revelation was 2000's version of the Comey letter in 2016.

I think Bush would have done similarly in 2000 as he did in 2004 if it wasn't for that. Or at least only half as worse. There would have been no question about Florida and he would have won the popular vote but for the DUI thing. He might have been able to flip Iowa and New Mexico.

His improvement amongst black people in Ohio counts for 70% of his margins, which in itself is interesting, especially given what people are saying about PoCs becoming interested in MAGA. That's another story to.

So maybe Bush's performance was a mix of a reversion to the true mean plus what really good Republican campaigns can do.

[UWS]

And as Bush performed so well among the Hispanics it likely helped him in Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland where the Latinos are the most concentrated in Ohio.

[Mr. Smith]

Ohio still swung left overall and actually ended up left of the nation for the first time since 1972. I'd argue Kerry's fall with the Appalachian vote was more critical.

[darklordoftech]

Maybe 9/11 and the fallout from it made race less salient than usual?

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

And as Bush performed so well among the Hispanics it likely helped him in Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland where the Latinos are the most concentrated in Ohio.

Bush still did worse than 2000 in Franklin, Hamilton, and Cuyahoga. It is for that reason I think black voters actually hurt Bush in Ohio. Even if you take exit polls at face value (but you shouldn't), an increase in black turnout would have canceled out percentage gains.