Georgia 2026 Gov and Row Elections

[GAinDC]

How do you see these races going in 2026? Here are my guesses:

Biden Midterm
Competitive, but Republicans win most. Gov is tossup depending on nominees. A MTG type would lose but a more moderate Republican would win. Dems maybe get lucky with one or two row offices, but the six-year itch will be hard to overcome.

Trump Midterm
The dam absolutely breaks for Republicans. Dems sweep all or most statewide races, and also have their first real shot at winning the legislature. McBath becomes the first Black woman governor (sorry Stacey) and over in the Senate Ossoff is easily reelected.

This is the only upside of a Trump win next year. Still not worth it though!

[Schiff for Senate]

How do you see these races going in 2026? Here are my guesses:

Biden Midterm
Competitive, but Republicans win most. Gov is tossup depending on nominees. A MTG type would lose but a more moderate Republican would win. Dems maybe get lucky with one or two row offices, but the six-year itch will be hard to overcome.

Trump Midterm
The dam absolutely breaks for Republicans. Dems sweep all or most statewide races, and also have their first real shot at winning the legislature. McBath becomes the first Black woman governor (sorry Stacey) and over in the Senate Ossoff is easily reelected.

This is the only upside of a Trump win next year. Still not worth it though!

Is there any evidence that she's interested in the governorship? Admittedly I'm not too familiar with McBath's career, but she gives national politics vibes.

As for the rest, I agree, but I think in a Biden midterm Republicans would do better than you suggest unless they really nominate candidates who are totally batsh**t insane. I give the GAGOP a little more credit than that, although maybe I shouldn't.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I agree with your takes.

[Dan the Roman]

A Biden midterm means Trump is finally gone. It also means the bottom falls out from under Biden the moment Trump is off the scene. Voters hate being blackmailed and millions will feel that's how Biden secured their votes. I would not be surprised if Biden hits 29% or below by 2026 and I would move most races a notch to the right with Ossoff losing to decent candidate.

[GAinDC]

How do you see these races going in 2026? Here are my guesses:

Biden Midterm
Competitive, but Republicans win most. Gov is tossup depending on nominees. A MTG type would lose but a more moderate Republican would win. Dems maybe get lucky with one or two row offices, but the six-year itch will be hard to overcome.

Trump Midterm
The dam absolutely breaks for Republicans. Dems sweep all or most statewide races, and also have their first real shot at winning the legislature. McBath becomes the first Black woman governor (sorry Stacey) and over in the Senate Ossoff is easily reelected.

This is the only upside of a Trump win next year. Still not worth it though!

Is there any evidence that she's interested in the governorship? Admittedly I'm not too familiar with McBath's career, but she gives national politics vibes.

As for the rest, I agree, but I think in a Biden midterm Republicans would do better than you suggest unless they really nominate candidates who are totally batsh**t insane. I give the GAGOP a little more credit than that, although maybe I shouldn't.

I'm not sure if she is planning a run but I bet people are trying to recruit her.

The caveat to your second point is that Kemp and Raffensperger are term limited in 2026, which paves the way for a new slate of candidates. Time will tell if they are in the same mold or MAGA

[Schiff for Senate]

How do you see these races going in 2026? Here are my guesses:

Biden Midterm
Competitive, but Republicans win most. Gov is tossup depending on nominees. A MTG type would lose but a more moderate Republican would win. Dems maybe get lucky with one or two row offices, but the six-year itch will be hard to overcome.

Trump Midterm
The dam absolutely breaks for Republicans. Dems sweep all or most statewide races, and also have their first real shot at winning the legislature. McBath becomes the first Black woman governor (sorry Stacey) and over in the Senate Ossoff is easily reelected.

This is the only upside of a Trump win next year. Still not worth it though!

Is there any evidence that she's interested in the governorship? Admittedly I'm not too familiar with McBath's career, but she gives national politics vibes.

As for the rest, I agree, but I think in a Biden midterm Republicans would do better than you suggest unless they really nominate candidates who are totally batsh**t insane. I give the GAGOP a little more credit than that, although maybe I shouldn't.

I'm not sure if she is planning a run but I bet people are trying to recruit her.

The caveat to your second point is that Kemp and Raffensperger are term limited in 2026, which paves the way for a new slate of candidates. Time will tell if they are in the same mold or MAGA

I'm not saying they won't be MAGA (consider who was nominated in open seats, like Walker for the Senate seat) as much as I'm saying that GA would still have a not-insignificant capacity of electing even those kinds of Republicans under the circumstances you described. I envision a six-year itch under Biden as being fairly devastating to the Democrats.

[Tekken_Guy]

Honestly this depends on who's in the white house and who the candidates are. A Biden midterm with Kemp as the R nominee is probably the worst case scenario for Ossoff. A Trump midterm against MTG should be a cakewalk for Democrats.

[GAinDC]

Honestly this depends on who's in the white house and who the candidates are. A Biden midterm with Kemp as the R nominee is probably the worst case scenario for Ossoff. A Trump midterm against MTG should be a cakewalk for Democrats.

Yeah, that’s basically what I was theorizing in my original post