Anyone think a Biden 2nd term could be a wreck for Dems?

[Devils30]

I feel like a Biden 2024 win could be great for the country in terms of keeping Trump out but his second term might go the way of George W. Bush. After Trump is gone, the left's problems will still be amplified and a recession (not 2008 level most likely) seems very possible. One must wonder if a revitalized post-Trump but still blue-collar GOP would be the main beneficiary of a second Biden term. By the time election night rolls around in 2028, it might feel like McCain 2008 with Harris at the top of the Dems ticket or something even bigger if a far lefty gets the nomination.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Populiberal Posturbia vs Liberaltarian Densitaria realignment arrives all the same.

[robocop]

2028 has potential to be a bit of a big landslide of nearly 400 EVs for whichever party likely becomes kryptonite like the GOP in 06 and 08 feeling the brunt of GWB unpopularity.
A Biden second term I can bet will lead to a red backlash even some solid blue states going red at President and even Senate or Governor level but also I can see the reverse if Trump wins 2024 and there is a big blue backlash too.

[dw93]

2026 and 28 would be bad no doubt, but 2030 would likely be for Democrats what 1994 was for Republicans in this scenario, so it'd likely be short term pain for long term gain and if the GOP wins 2028 despite Biden/Harris presiding over a good economy, the Democrats would likely be sitting on a strong trifecta come January 2033.

[Goldwater]

Ah, but whichever party wins in 2028 is guaranteed to lose in 2036, so it all balances out! Of course, we have to keep our eye on that highly competitive 2044 election...

[Xing]

I think it’s most likely that Republicans have good years (possibly great years) in 2026 and 2028, but that doesn’t mean it would be better for Trump to have a trifecta for two years.

[Agonized-Statism]

Not necessarily. I think the mid-late 2020s will probably be better as the economy picks back up from its current anemia: COVID will be fully in the rearview mirror and the aftershocks of inflationary pressure will have sorted themselves out, supply chain disruptions coming out of the Ukraine War will end as one or both of the combatants get exhausted enough for the war to end decisively or peter out into a low-intensity conflict again, the Web 3.0 and AI bubbles will grow and dazzle investors (until they don't later on), reshoring will continue slowly and limitedly but continue nevertheless. Probably want to be able to take credit for that, and 2028 doesn't have to be a loss either provided that Democrats learn their lesson from 2016. Don't coronate Harris/Buttigieg/Newson and stay on guard for the next Trumpian figure.

[wnwnwn]

Only if a recession does happen. If Biden wins the 2024 election, that means the Gaza war won't affect the electability of democrats in the next years. The Ukraine war won't impact much the election, as supporting the Ukraine side is much easier to defent and there is no american boots there and it's unlikely that will change.

[ottermax]

I have considered this, but I think Trump winning would be far worse for the country as a whole. Trump is a unique figure in American populism, capturing politics in a way that doesn't really move our nation forward in any meaningful way. Biden winning would help to shut down the idea of Trump as the GOP leader after two election losses (3 or 4 if we count the midterms) and would effectively force the GOP to shift their stances to appeal hopefully to a more positive direction for the country. It is wild that given all the losses the GOP continues to double down on this far-right conservatism.

In all honest a GOP midterm in 2026 might not be the worst thing if the message is about moderation, rather than culture war nonsense. I think after 2020 when Trump did better than the polls the GOP believed leaning into the culture war would win votes, but it didn't. Hopefully a 2024 loss would signal to the GOP that it needs to focus on issues that can help improve our country as a whole which would be better for all of us.

[MABA 2020]

Maybe, but the alternative is what? Trump wins and hopefully doesn't do all the authoritarian things he's promised to do? There's a non zero chance that if Biden doesn't win next year there won't be free and fair elections in 2026 and 2028.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe, but the alternative is what? Trump wins and hopefully doesn't do all the authoritarian things he's promised to do? There's a non zero chance that if Biden doesn't win next year there won't be free and fair elections in 2026 and 2028.

Trump wins and tries to act like an authoritarian but everything either dies in congress or gets slapped down by courts.

[MABA 2020]

Maybe, but the alternative is what? Trump wins and hopefully doesn't do all the authoritarian things he's promised to do? There's a non zero chance that if Biden doesn't win next year there won't be free and fair elections in 2026 and 2028.

Trump wins and tries to act like an authoritarian but everything either dies in congress or gets slapped down by courts.

I'd hope so and that might even be likely, but given how Trump has already succeeded in taking over the Republican Party and a slow degradation of American democracy I'd rather not take the chance. He has never been competent but he still plagues us nonetheless.

There's also all the other damage he could do internationally, empowering Russia and China, stopping any progress on fighting the climate emergency.

[Devils30]

I have considered this, but I think Trump winning would be far worse for the country as a whole. Trump is a unique figure in American populism, capturing politics in a way that doesn't really move our nation forward in any meaningful way. Biden winning would help to shut down the idea of Trump as the GOP leader after two election losses (3 or 4 if we count the midterms) and would effectively force the GOP to shift their stances to appeal hopefully to a more positive direction for the country. It is wild that given all the losses the GOP continues to double down on this far-right conservatism.

In all honest a GOP midterm in 2026 might not be the worst thing if the message is about moderation, rather than culture war nonsense. I think after 2020 when Trump did better than the polls the GOP believed leaning into the culture war would win votes, but it didn't. Hopefully a 2024 loss would signal to the GOP that it needs to focus on issues that can help improve our country as a whole which would be better for all of us.

I agree it would be best for the country if Biden wins in 2024, GOP wins in midterms 2026 and non-Trump GOP candidate wins in 2028. Perhaps Harris takes the nomination with full support from the DEI industry, elite colleges but loses badly to a Youngkin type. At this point, the Dems can either 1) moderate and hope for a big 2030 redistricting year or 2) go further down the rabbit hole, nominate AOC/far left and get destroyed in 2032.

Considering how out of line with the rest of the country younger Dems are on a variety of issues (support for Hamas/terror groups, gender identity, cost of living in blue states), it would not be shocking if 2028-2032 triggered the next 1992 type realignment where Republicans get certain voters (Asians, Jews, 1/2 of Hispanics) they couldn't have dreamed of just a decade earlier. 

[Ferguson97]

"Losing the election is good in the long-term, actually" is a terrible argument.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I mean a non insane republican being elected in 2028 after two Biden terms is better than Trump winning again

[Tekken_Guy]

I mean a non insane republican being elected in 2028 after two Biden terms is better than Trump winning again

A more competent Trumpist being elected after 2 Biden terms is not.

[Fancyarcher]

I mean a non insane republican being elected in 2028 after two Biden terms is better than Trump winning again

Non insane Republicans don't exist, and if they actually do, they'd never win a primary.

[DS0816]

Re: Anyone think a Biden 2nd term could be a wreck for Dems?

This is happening now.

With his current term.

The polls are saying, among many things, the people do not intend to vote to re-elect to a second term U.S. president Joe Biden.

[Flyersfan232]

if the gop ditch maga after 2024 then yes

[darklordoftech]

I was going to create a thread asking about the likelihood of the Democratic nominee winning the 2028 Presidential election if Biden gets re-elected in 2024. Does this thread cover that topic?

[Beet]

"Losing the election is good in the long-term, actually" is a terrible argument.

Seriously, how many times are we going to have the same thread?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

How can you ask this after how 2022 went?

[GAinDC]

No matter what happens, it’ll be better than a second Trump term.

[oldtimer]

No matter what happens, it’ll be better than a second Trump term.

I disagree.

Under Trump no one will be in power practically due to constant infighting with various factions, so nothing will be done.

Independent voters will be very happy, particularly Libertarians.

[oldtimer]

I was going to create a thread asking about the likelihood of the Democratic nominee winning the 2028 Presidential election if Biden gets re-elected in 2024. Does this thread cover that topic?

Just by changes among demographics:

Democrats would be favoured in Congress regardless of who wins, until at least reapportionment in 2032.

Republicans ought to be favoured in Presidential elections regardless of who wins.

For example:

https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/

If I just give Trump 40% of the "brown" vote, while changing nothing else, it goes from a Biden 4.4% victory of the P.V. and 307-231, to Biden 0.4% and Trump 312-226.

But Democrats would still win the gerrymandered House, Republicans would need Trump to win the P.V. by 3+.