2024 Alberta NDP leadership election

[mileslunn]

I think if party stays moderate, has excellent chance in 2027.  Not only are demographics shifting in their direction, but I believe if the Conservatives were in power in Ottawa in 2023, Notley would have won.  I think anger at Trudeau and wanting someone who will stand up to him is only thing keeping UCP in power so if Trudeau no longer PM that helps.  Lets remember, when Notley won in 2015, Harper was still PM.  Had Prentice waited a year quite possible she might have had a tougher time although to be fair Trudeau still in honeymoon phase.  But by 2017, he was a huge drag on progressive parties.

Also probably better to choose someone from Calgary and if from Edmonton, from the donut region not city itself.  Prior to Notley, party seen as very much an Edmonton one so it will be important for them to remain strong in Calgary and not revert.  No doubt many in base want to move left, but this is Alberta, not BC or Ontario where left is not large enough to win its own.  To win in Alberta, you essentially need to unite, NDP, federal Liberals and Red Tories which is doable but not easy.

[mileslunn]

Do people think if Poilievre is PM federally, NDP provincially has much better odds of winning in 2027?  I do as I think had O'Toole won in 2021 Notley would have won in 2023.  I think hatred towards Trudeau and fact Smith is combative with him is big reason she won.  I also think Alberta being still centre-right is okay with centre-left government at one level, but both levels is a bridge too far.  If Poilievre is PM, Smith won't be able to use bashing feds as effectively.  Sure some will claim he is too Central Canadian and not conservative enough but that cohort way too small.

[mileslunn]

In actual leadership race news, Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi officially entered the race today with this (in my opinion) pretty well-done announcement video.

So two of the three frontrunner that were identified have announced as official candidates; Ganley and Pancholi, Calgary vs Edmonton (lol). AND rumours of Nenshi. Do we think Hoffman will join the race? any other names bubbling up?
Do we have a sense of the positions, policies, leanings of Ganley and Pancholi?

These are the other names listed as potential candidates on Wiki
1.Deron Bilous, MLA for Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview (2012-2023), former Minister of Economic Development[16]
2.Joe Ceci, MLA for Calgary-Buffalo (2015-present), former Minister of Finance[16]
3.Court Ellingson, MLA for Calgary-Foothills (2023-present)[17]
4.Todd Hirsch, director of Energy Transition Centre at Innovate Calgary (2023-present), chief economist at ATB Financial (2007-2022)[17]
5.Sarah Hoffman, MLA for Edmonton-Glenora (2015-present), former Deputy Premier and Minister of Health[6][2]
6.Janis Irwin, MLA for Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood (2019-present)[16]
7.Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour (2005-present)[17]
8.Naheed Nenshi, former Mayor of Calgary (2010-2021)[6][18]
9.David Shepherd, MLA for Edmonton-Centre (2015-2019) and Edmonton-City Centre (2019-present)[6][2][17]
10.Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse, MLA for Edmonton-Rutherford (2023-present)[19]

I believe most expect that Janis Irwin will endorse Sarah Hoffman. Janis Irwin was a senior advisor to Rachel Notley from 2015-2019 while Sarah Hoffman was Deputy Premier.

I’d actually be surprised if Irwin endorsed anyone other than Pancholi. They’re best friends in the NDP caucus - they literally call each other their “work wives” (or something to that effect).

From that list, aside from Hoffman, I think Shepherd would be the most likely to enter the race, followed by Calahoo Stonehouse, McGowan, and/or Nenshi. I’d be surprised if any of the others ran.

Also, interesting observation in browsing the Wikipedia article: I notice that Ganley has been endorsed by both Raj Pannu and Brian Mason, the two party leaders who preceded Notley.

Shepard, Hoffman and especially McGowan along with Janis Irwin would just ensure UCP wins again.  They can do well in Edmonton but not Calgary.  NDP can win in Alberta but wins by essentially being an anti-UCP coalition, sort of much like BC Liberals were on other side of Rockies only on other side of political spectrum. 

[mileslunn]

I think Nenshi will win leadership.  How he does in general election harder to say, but I actually think he has a 40-50% chance of winning next election.  Smith has a tendency to do stupid things and I also think if Poilievre is PM, people will be more open to having a centre-left premier to balance things out.  I actually think had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won in 2023.  I believe Trudeau's unpopularity in Alberta is biggest thing keeping UCP in power.  Heck even Ford I think would be doing worse in polls if Tories in power in Ottawa.  Alberta may not have history of voting opposites like Ontario but this trend is not unique to Canada.  You see it in many other jurisdictions where subnational or in case of EU, European where opposite party of who is in power often win in those.  US usually that way and 2022 midterms somewhat unusual in GOP failing to pick up states as usually opposite party of one holding white house does. 

Its not so much people voting opposite is more if Poilievre is in office, the sovereignty act, need to stand up to feds would have as much appeal as it does now.  Never mind Poilievre probably does seem things that will be unpopular even in Alberta.  Austerity is not popular anywhere including Alberta so NDP can easily make argument that they will invest not cut like UCP and federal Tories while won't have to worry about carbon tax as that will be gone.

[mileslunn]

I think Nenshi will win leadership.  How he does in general election harder to say, but I actually think he has a 40-50% chance of winning next election.  Smith has a tendency to do stupid things and I also think if Poilievre is PM, people will be more open to having a centre-left premier to balance things out.  I actually think had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won in 2023.  I believe Trudeau's unpopularity in Alberta is biggest thing keeping UCP in power.  Heck even Ford I think would be doing worse in polls if Tories in power in Ottawa.  Alberta may not have history of voting opposites like Ontario but this trend is not unique to Canada.  You see it in many other jurisdictions where subnational or in case of EU, European where opposite party of who is in power often win in those.  US usually that way and 2022 midterms somewhat unusual in GOP failing to pick up states as usually opposite party of one holding white house does. 

Its not so much people voting opposite is more if Poilievre is in office, the sovereignty act, need to stand up to feds would have as much appeal as it does now.  Never mind Poilievre probably does seem things that will be unpopular even in Alberta.  Austerity is not popular anywhere including Alberta so NDP can easily make argument that they will invest not cut like UCP and federal Tories while won't have to worry about carbon tax as that will be gone.

I actually don't agree with Ontario. Ford is quite chummy with Justin Trudeau to the benefit of Ford if no longer Trudeau and has shifted largely to the 'mushy middle' to be around where Trudeau is (at least more in line with more centrist Liberals.)

Finally, the Federal Conservatives and Ford don't seem to like each other very much as the Poilievre Conservatives, especially their recent by-election winner, seem to have a great dislike for Education Minister Stephen Lecce.

I especially don't understand that as Lecce was once a senior staffer for Stephen Harper.

If, as you seem to assume here given your comments about the UCP being hurt by a Federal Conservative Party government (presumably becoming unpopular) I think Ford/Poilievre have established enough distance already that Ford would probably benefit from that.

Good point.  Also I think Ford knows history of Ontario voting opposites.  But going back to Alberta, I think Poilievre being PM helps NDP as Smith won't have Trudeau as whipping boy.  Whether enough or not is hard to say.  Biggest challenge for NDP is UCP's near lock on rural ridings so they need to run the table in Calgary.  Narrowly winning Calgary as did in 2023 isn't enough.  But if can win 20 of 26 seats that may be enough but just barely.  So they have more paths, whomever wins should aggressively target the two Red Deer seats, other Lethbridge and donut around Edmonton.  That gives them a bit more breathing room as I have found in elections if you have a very narrow path, almost always lose as never win every riding you wish.