2024 Alberta NDP leadership election

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-rachel-notley-leadership-departure-race-2024-analysis-1.7061516

In 2024, Alberta NDP decides who it is without Rachel Notley as leader
Ex-premier mum on departure timing, but MLAs quietly organizing for leadership race

Jason Markusoff · CBC News

I don't think that should be regarded as surprising, but what probably should be regarded as a surprise given recent provincial NDP leadership races, is this should be an actual competitive leadership race!
(Carla Beck and Wab Kinew both faced challengers, but they were basically token rivals.)

[DL]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-rachel-notley-leadership-departure-race-2024-analysis-1.7061516

In 2024, Alberta NDP decides who it is without Rachel Notley as leader
Ex-premier mum on departure timing, but MLAs quietly organizing for leadership race

Jason Markusoff · CBC News

I don't think that should be regarded as surprising, but what probably should be regarded as a surprise given recent provincial NDP leadership races, is this should be an actual competitive leadership race!
(Carla Beck and Wab Kinew both faced challengers, but they were basically token rivals.)

and I guess you are referring to acclamations for Marit Stiles in Ontario, David Eby in BC , Claudia Chender in Nova Scotia and Jim Dinn in Newfoundland

[Hatman 🍁]

Any chance the party can attract someone like Nenshi to run?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-rachel-notley-leadership-departure-race-2024-analysis-1.7061516

In 2024, Alberta NDP decides who it is without Rachel Notley as leader
Ex-premier mum on departure timing, but MLAs quietly organizing for leadership race

Jason Markusoff · CBC News

I don't think that should be regarded as surprising, but what probably should be regarded as a surprise given recent provincial NDP leadership races, is this should be an actual competitive leadership race!
(Carla Beck and Wab Kinew both faced challengers, but they were basically token rivals.)

and I guess you are referring to acclamations for Marit Stiles in Ontario, David Eby in BC , Claudia Chender in Nova Scotia and Jim Dinn in Newfoundland

Yes. Also in Yukon and New Brunswick.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Any chance the party can attract someone like Nenshi to run?

Is Nenshi all that popular in Calgary?

I know Nenshi has said that he doesn't consider himself to be a team player and that a person who isn't a team player shouldn't be the leader of the team.

[mileslunn]

I think if party stays moderate, has excellent chance in 2027.  Not only are demographics shifting in their direction, but I believe if the Conservatives were in power in Ottawa in 2023, Notley would have won.  I think anger at Trudeau and wanting someone who will stand up to him is only thing keeping UCP in power so if Trudeau no longer PM that helps.  Lets remember, when Notley won in 2015, Harper was still PM.  Had Prentice waited a year quite possible she might have had a tougher time although to be fair Trudeau still in honeymoon phase.  But by 2017, he was a huge drag on progressive parties.

Also probably better to choose someone from Calgary and if from Edmonton, from the donut region not city itself.  Prior to Notley, party seen as very much an Edmonton one so it will be important for them to remain strong in Calgary and not revert.  No doubt many in base want to move left, but this is Alberta, not BC or Ontario where left is not large enough to win its own.  To win in Alberta, you essentially need to unite, NDP, federal Liberals and Red Tories which is doable but not easy.

[Njall]

As anticipated, Notley announced her intention to step down today. She will stay on until a new leader is selected and will continue to serve as Leader of the Official Opposition in the Legislature during the spring session.

The general consensus in the media and amongst pundits are that there are three early front-runners (none of whom have formally declared, although Ganley recently posted a video that many took as a soft-launch):

• Kathleen Ganley: MLA for Calgary-Mountain View since 2019 (she represented Calgary-Buffalo from 2015-2019 but moved seats in 2019). She served as Justice Minister during the 2015-2019 NDP government and currently serves as the Opposition Critic for Energy & Climate (Oil & Gas, Hydrogen and Minerals). Before she was elected, she worked as a labour, employment and human rights lawyer.
• Sarah Hoffman: MLA for Edmonton-Glenora since 2015. She served as Deputy Premier and Health Minister during the 2015-2019 NDP government, and currently serves as the Deputy Leader of the Alberta NDP and Opposition Critic for Municipal Affairs (Calgary & Edmonton). Between 2010-2015, she was an Edmonton Public School Board Trustee (and served as Chair from 2012-2015). I believe she also spent some time working as an NDP caucus staffer prior to 2010.
• Rakhi Pancholi: MLA for Edmonton-Whitemud since 2019. She was one of only three rookie NDP MLAs elected when they lost government in 2019. She currently serves as the Opposition Critic for Education, and was relatively prominent as the Early Learning & Child Care critic between 2019-2023. Before she was elected, she worked as a lawyer for the Alberta government, and before that worked in private practice with a focus on education, labour and employment law.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

As anticipated, Notley announced her intention to step down today. She will stay on until a new leader is selected and will continue to serve as Leader of the Official Opposition in the Legislature during the spring session.

The general consensus in the media and amongst pundits are that there are three early front-runners (none of whom have formally declared, although Ganley recently posted a video that many took as a soft-launch):

• Kathleen Ganley: MLA for Calgary-Mountain View since 2019 (she represented Calgary-Buffalo from 2015-2019 but moved seats in 2019). She served as Justice Minister during the 2015-2019 NDP government and currently serves as the Opposition Critic for Energy & Climate (Oil & Gas, Hydrogen and Minerals). Before she was elected, she worked as a labour, employment and human rights lawyer.
• Sarah Hoffman: MLA for Edmonton-Glenora since 2015. She served as Deputy Premier and Health Minister during the 2015-2019 NDP government, and currently serves as the Deputy Leader of the Alberta NDP and Opposition Critic for Municipal Affairs (Calgary & Edmonton). Between 2010-2015, she was an Edmonton Public School Board Trustee (and served as Chair from 2012-2015). I believe she also spent some time working as an NDP caucus staffer prior to 2010.
• Rakhi Pancholi: MLA for Edmonton-Whitemud since 2019. She was one of only three rookie NDP MLAs elected when they lost government in 2019. She currently serves as the Opposition Critic for Education, and was relatively prominent as the Early Learning & Child Care critic between 2019-2023. Before she was elected, she worked as a lawyer for the Alberta government, and before that worked in private practice with a focus on education, labour and employment law.

Sarah Hoffman was the NDP caucus research director and before that was a high school math teacher.

Kathleen Ganley seems to be the most right leaning, which is probably a good fit for Alberta. From what I saw, she was a 'law and order' attorney general and has been sympathetic to the oil and gas industry since becoming the critic. Of course, that she's a Calgary New Democrat might make her more sympathetic to right wing ideas as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

How right wing are the card carrying members of the party though? I mean, these are the people that turfed Mulcair (convention was in Edmonton). And remember, card carrying members are also federal members. Probably a not too insignificant number are Strathcona progressives.

[DL]

How right wing are the card carrying members of the party though? I mean, these are the people that turfed Mulcair (convention was in Edmonton). And remember, card carrying members are also federal members. Probably a not too insignificant number are Strathcona progressives.

Your point is well taken but the NDP delegates from Alberta who voted to ditch Mulcair in Edmonton in 2016 did not do so because they thought he was too rightwing - on the contrary a lot of Notley's people just didn't like Mulcair personally, thought he was incompetent and were especially unimpressed when he suddenly embraced the Leap Manifesto and called for stopping all pipelines on the eve of the convention in a desperate attempt to curry favour with the leftwing of the party

[Hatman 🍁]

Nenshi is considering running!!! https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-considering-bid-alberta-ndp-leadership

This is very exciting news. Hopefully he does indeed enter the race.

[mileslunn]

Do people think if Poilievre is PM federally, NDP provincially has much better odds of winning in 2027?  I do as I think had O'Toole won in 2021 Notley would have won in 2023.  I think hatred towards Trudeau and fact Smith is combative with him is big reason she won.  I also think Alberta being still centre-right is okay with centre-left government at one level, but both levels is a bridge too far.  If Poilievre is PM, Smith won't be able to use bashing feds as effectively.  Sure some will claim he is too Central Canadian and not conservative enough but that cohort way too small.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Nenshi is considering running!!! https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-considering-bid-alberta-ndp-leadership

This is very exciting news. Hopefully he does indeed enter the race.

Since you're a New Democrat I don't understand your excitement at a provincial ND party being led by a person who has not been a New Democrat.

I'll just say what Naheed Nenshi has said about himself previously "a person who is not a team player should not lead the team."

[politicallefty]

Nenshi is considering running!!! https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-considering-bid-alberta-ndp-leadership

This is very exciting news. Hopefully he does indeed enter the race.

Since you're a New Democrat I don't understand your excitement at a provincial ND party being led by a person who has not been a New Democrat.

I'll just say what Naheed Nenshi has said about himself previously "a person who is not a team player should not lead the team."

I obviously don't speak for Hatman, but I understand his excitement. If he's ready to be on the team as a team player, that should be acceptable. Right now, the Alberta NDP seems to have hit a ceiling. If the Alberta NDP runs on the federal NDP platform, they're doomed. The Alberta NDP needs to be a more moderate entity than its federal counterpart as it needs to win a good portion of those that vote Conservative at the federal level. They need to do better in Calgary to offset the rural areas (though winning a couple smaller city ridings wouldn't hurt).

[DL]

The Alberta NDP is already much more “resource friendly “ than the federal NDP for obvious reasons and they don’t need to stake out ideological space to the left of the Liberals since the Alberta Liberals are a dead party. I think the Alberta NDP turning to Nenshi would be kinda like the federal NDP making Mulcair leader. Though at least Mulcair was actually an ndp mp. The thing about Nenshi is it’s not clear to me that he is a New Democrat with any belief in social democracy. So the question for the Alberta NDP is whether they want to handover the keys to the kingdom to someone whose only ideology seems to be that he is vaguely “non-Conservative”

[adma]

Though I'm also thinking of a shifted-left version of Ontario's provincial "left-Liberals" and their cynicism t/w Bonnie Crombie.  Not to mention the electoral trajectory of Glen Murray.  That is, as long as the Libs remain actually or latently viable *at other levels of government*, a Nenshi bid will raise suspicions of the fairweather--the fear that he'll jump ship and do a Murray or Rae or Dosanjih at some opportune future federal election...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though the way to avoid that as a standing risk is to do better in general; to try to turn what can be a vicious cycle into a virtuous one. Then maybe you get some of the more social democratically compatible Liberals think sometimes about leaping the other way.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nenshi is considering running!!! https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-considering-bid-alberta-ndp-leadership

This is very exciting news. Hopefully he does indeed enter the race.

Since you're a New Democrat I don't understand your excitement at a provincial ND party being led by a person who has not been a New Democrat.

I've always liked Nenshi as a politician. Of course, I don't always agree with him, and he may not be a social democrat, but let's face it.. the NDP in Alberta is basically just a coalition of non-Conservatives these days. As long as it has a chance of winning, it should be trying to pick leaders who have the best chance of doing so.

[adma]

Though the way to avoid that as a standing risk is to do better in general; to try to turn what can be a vicious cycle into a virtuous one. Then maybe you get some of the more social democratically compatible Liberals think sometimes about leaping the other way.

It's interesting how few have, though, even in the West where one might *expect* them to--Mulcair's an exception that proves the rule; and even there, the exceptional nature of Quebec politics makes his case look a little "inexact"...

[DL]

Keep in mind that the NDP is a federated party and so if Nenshi wanted to run to lead the Alberta NDP he would have to join the Alberta NDP and become an ipso-facto federal New Democrat. That doesnt mean he takes orders from Jagmeet Singh but he does become part of the NDP "family" from coast to coast. I dunno that much about Nenshi's beliefs - maybe in recent years he has moved to the left and sees himself as more of a New Democrat than before.

Nenshi gave a very nice speech today attacking Danielle Smith for her attack on trans youth etc…but I’m looking to hear Nenshi take on the UCP economic agenda as opposed to him just talking identity politics

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Kathleen Ganley first to declare bid for Alberta NDP leadership as contest kicks off
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/kathleen-ganley-rachel-notley-alberta-ndp-leadership-contest-1.7104985

Wow, an actual contested NDP leadership race. Is this one of the signs of the Apocalypse?

Then again, there is not yet a rival to Ganley...

Ganley was endorsed by 7 MLAs: Shannon Phillips, Irfan Sabir, Heather Sweet, Julia Hayter, Gurinder Brar, Amanda Chapman and Jasvir Deol. Interestingly two of these MLAs are from Edmonton and at least a couple were also speculated as possible leadership candidates.

Judging by the 2023 election results, it might not mean much, but Heather Sweet has been the critic for Agriculture and Forests since 2019 so her endorsement could mean that Ganley has support (or could build up support) in rural Alberta.

Ganley also received the endorsement of a couple former MLAs who were both Ministers of Municipal Affairs from the 'rest of Alberta': Danielle Larivee and Shaye Anderson (who moved back to British Columbia at least for a while and the riding he represented is considered to be outer Edmonton suburban.)

The only ones left to make the signifiant rural 'rest of Alberta' endorsements complete are Oneil Carlier, the former Minister of Agriculture and Forests, and Sarah Elmeligi.

Of course, since the election is based on one member one vote and is not  'one riding one vote', the rural vote may not be all that important anyway.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Keep in mind that the NDP is a federated party and so if Nenshi wanted to run to lead the Alberta NDP he would have to join the Alberta NDP and become an ipso-facto federal New Democrat. That doesnt mean he takes orders from Jagmeet Singh but he does become part of the NDP "family" from coast to coast. I dunno that much about Nenshi's beliefs - maybe in recent years he has moved to the left and sees himself as more of a New Democrat than before.

Nenshi gave a very nice speech today attacking Danielle Smith for her attack on trans youth etc…but I’m looking to hear Nenshi take on the UCP economic agenda as opposed to him just talking identity politics

Just a reminder on transgender (which I don't personally have much of an opinion on as I haven't really looked into it.) I gather that the Danielle Smith has also adopted this line of 'let a kid be a kid' (which is also consistent with the mandating a parental signature for a kid to attend sex ed.) The same UCP, similar to the Republicans in the United States, has no problem with kids as young as somewhere between 10-13 doing adult work on farms. So, for them, a kid should be a kid in school, but need to be adults when not in school.

Also, if these are 'parental rights' why does the UCP need to use the Notwithstanding clause which is used to take away rights?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Though the way to avoid that as a standing risk is to do better in general; to try to turn what can be a vicious cycle into a virtuous one. Then maybe you get some of the more social democratically compatible Liberals think sometimes about leaping the other way.

Just today!:
B.C. Liberal MP Aldag in talks with provincial NDP to run in the fall election
MP John Aldag denies he's considering a provincial run for the B.C. NDP because of the unpopularity of the Trudeau Liberals federally.
The Hill Times (firewall protected.)

[Upper Canada Tory]

Nenshi is considering running!!! https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-considering-bid-alberta-ndp-leadership

This is very exciting news. Hopefully he does indeed enter the race.

Since you're a New Democrat I don't understand your excitement at a provincial ND party being led by a person who has not been a New Democrat.

I've always liked Nenshi as a politician. Of course, I don't always agree with him, and he may not be a social democrat, but let's face it.. the NDP in Alberta is basically just a coalition of non-Conservatives these days. As long as it has a chance of winning, it should be trying to pick leaders who have the best chance of doing so.

To some extent, I wish UCP and NDP weren't the only options in Alberta politics and smaller parties (such as the Alberta Party) could gain some ground amongst the non-UCP vote.

[lilTommy]

Nenshi is considering running!!! https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-considering-bid-alberta-ndp-leadership

This is very exciting news. Hopefully he does indeed enter the race.

Since you're a New Democrat I don't understand your excitement at a provincial ND party being led by a person who has not been a New Democrat.

I've always liked Nenshi as a politician. Of course, I don't always agree with him, and he may not be a social democrat, but let's face it.. the NDP in Alberta is basically just a coalition of non-Conservatives these days. As long as it has a chance of winning, it should be trying to pick leaders who have the best chance of doing so.

To some extent, I wish UCP and NDP weren't the only options in Alberta politics and smaller parties (such as the Alberta Party) could gain some ground amongst the non-UCP vote.

It's interesting to see in Western Canada a polarization at the provincial levels now.
- BC (while polling is saying otherwise) has always been NDP vs Anti-NDP party (SoCred, BCLibs, United) The greens have always "been there" a goo 10%+ but never been a factor in seats, spoiler yes.
- Alberta was basically a one-party province but is very UCP vs NDP now. There really wasn't a clear anti-UCP choice till 2015, except in the 80s when the NDP then the LIBs took turns winning most of Edmonton. The anti-UCP voter has found a home with the NDP for the most part
- SASK has basically been NDP vs SP for decades, no sign that will change
- MAN is still basically NDP vs PC, where the LIBs used to bump up in seats when the NDP were out of office.

I think most of this started to happen post-1950's