2024 Alberta NDP leadership election

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-rachel-notley-leadership-departure-race-2024-analysis-1.7061516

In 2024, Alberta NDP decides who it is without Rachel Notley as leader
Ex-premier mum on departure timing, but MLAs quietly organizing for leadership race

Jason Markusoff · CBC News

I don't think that should be regarded as surprising, but what probably should be regarded as a surprise given recent provincial NDP leadership races, is this should be an actual competitive leadership race!
(Carla Beck and Wab Kinew both faced challengers, but they were basically token rivals.)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ndp-rachel-notley-leadership-departure-race-2024-analysis-1.7061516

In 2024, Alberta NDP decides who it is without Rachel Notley as leader
Ex-premier mum on departure timing, but MLAs quietly organizing for leadership race

Jason Markusoff · CBC News

I don't think that should be regarded as surprising, but what probably should be regarded as a surprise given recent provincial NDP leadership races, is this should be an actual competitive leadership race!
(Carla Beck and Wab Kinew both faced challengers, but they were basically token rivals.)

and I guess you are referring to acclamations for Marit Stiles in Ontario, David Eby in BC , Claudia Chender in Nova Scotia and Jim Dinn in Newfoundland

Yes. Also in Yukon and New Brunswick.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Any chance the party can attract someone like Nenshi to run?

Is Nenshi all that popular in Calgary?

I know Nenshi has said that he doesn't consider himself to be a team player and that a person who isn't a team player shouldn't be the leader of the team.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

As anticipated, Notley announced her intention to step down today. She will stay on until a new leader is selected and will continue to serve as Leader of the Official Opposition in the Legislature during the spring session.

The general consensus in the media and amongst pundits are that there are three early front-runners (none of whom have formally declared, although Ganley recently posted a video that many took as a soft-launch):

• Kathleen Ganley: MLA for Calgary-Mountain View since 2019 (she represented Calgary-Buffalo from 2015-2019 but moved seats in 2019). She served as Justice Minister during the 2015-2019 NDP government and currently serves as the Opposition Critic for Energy & Climate (Oil & Gas, Hydrogen and Minerals). Before she was elected, she worked as a labour, employment and human rights lawyer.
• Sarah Hoffman: MLA for Edmonton-Glenora since 2015. She served as Deputy Premier and Health Minister during the 2015-2019 NDP government, and currently serves as the Deputy Leader of the Alberta NDP and Opposition Critic for Municipal Affairs (Calgary & Edmonton). Between 2010-2015, she was an Edmonton Public School Board Trustee (and served as Chair from 2012-2015). I believe she also spent some time working as an NDP caucus staffer prior to 2010.
• Rakhi Pancholi: MLA for Edmonton-Whitemud since 2019. She was one of only three rookie NDP MLAs elected when they lost government in 2019. She currently serves as the Opposition Critic for Education, and was relatively prominent as the Early Learning & Child Care critic between 2019-2023. Before she was elected, she worked as a lawyer for the Alberta government, and before that worked in private practice with a focus on education, labour and employment law.

Sarah Hoffman was the NDP caucus research director and before that was a high school math teacher.

Kathleen Ganley seems to be the most right leaning, which is probably a good fit for Alberta. From what I saw, she was a 'law and order' attorney general and has been sympathetic to the oil and gas industry since becoming the critic. Of course, that she's a Calgary New Democrat might make her more sympathetic to right wing ideas as well.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Nenshi is considering running!!! https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-considering-bid-alberta-ndp-leadership

This is very exciting news. Hopefully he does indeed enter the race.

Since you're a New Democrat I don't understand your excitement at a provincial ND party being led by a person who has not been a New Democrat.

I'll just say what Naheed Nenshi has said about himself previously "a person who is not a team player should not lead the team."

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Kathleen Ganley first to declare bid for Alberta NDP leadership as contest kicks off
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/kathleen-ganley-rachel-notley-alberta-ndp-leadership-contest-1.7104985

Wow, an actual contested NDP leadership race. Is this one of the signs of the Apocalypse?

Then again, there is not yet a rival to Ganley...

Ganley was endorsed by 7 MLAs: Shannon Phillips, Irfan Sabir, Heather Sweet, Julia Hayter, Gurinder Brar, Amanda Chapman and Jasvir Deol. Interestingly two of these MLAs are from Edmonton and at least a couple were also speculated as possible leadership candidates.

Judging by the 2023 election results, it might not mean much, but Heather Sweet has been the critic for Agriculture and Forests since 2019 so her endorsement could mean that Ganley has support (or could build up support) in rural Alberta.

Ganley also received the endorsement of a couple former MLAs who were both Ministers of Municipal Affairs from the 'rest of Alberta': Danielle Larivee and Shaye Anderson (who moved back to British Columbia at least for a while and the riding he represented is considered to be outer Edmonton suburban.)

The only ones left to make the signifiant rural 'rest of Alberta' endorsements complete are Oneil Carlier, the former Minister of Agriculture and Forests, and Sarah Elmeligi.

Of course, since the election is based on one member one vote and is not  'one riding one vote', the rural vote may not be all that important anyway.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Keep in mind that the NDP is a federated party and so if Nenshi wanted to run to lead the Alberta NDP he would have to join the Alberta NDP and become an ipso-facto federal New Democrat. That doesnt mean he takes orders from Jagmeet Singh but he does become part of the NDP "family" from coast to coast. I dunno that much about Nenshi's beliefs - maybe in recent years he has moved to the left and sees himself as more of a New Democrat than before.

Nenshi gave a very nice speech today attacking Danielle Smith for her attack on trans youth etc…but I’m looking to hear Nenshi take on the UCP economic agenda as opposed to him just talking identity politics

Just a reminder on transgender (which I don't personally have much of an opinion on as I haven't really looked into it.) I gather that the Danielle Smith has also adopted this line of 'let a kid be a kid' (which is also consistent with the mandating a parental signature for a kid to attend sex ed.) The same UCP, similar to the Republicans in the United States, has no problem with kids as young as somewhere between 10-13 doing adult work on farms. So, for them, a kid should be a kid in school, but need to be adults when not in school.

Also, if these are 'parental rights' why does the UCP need to use the Notwithstanding clause which is used to take away rights?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Though the way to avoid that as a standing risk is to do better in general; to try to turn what can be a vicious cycle into a virtuous one. Then maybe you get some of the more social democratically compatible Liberals think sometimes about leaping the other way.

Just today!:
B.C. Liberal MP Aldag in talks with provincial NDP to run in the fall election
MP John Aldag denies he's considering a provincial run for the B.C. NDP because of the unpopularity of the Trudeau Liberals federally.
The Hill Times (firewall protected.)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Nenshi is considering running!!! https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-considering-bid-alberta-ndp-leadership

This is very exciting news. Hopefully he does indeed enter the race.

Since you're a New Democrat I don't understand your excitement at a provincial ND party being led by a person who has not been a New Democrat.

I've always liked Nenshi as a politician. Of course, I don't always agree with him, and he may not be a social democrat, but let's face it.. the NDP in Alberta is basically just a coalition of non-Conservatives these days. As long as it has a chance of winning, it should be trying to pick leaders who have the best chance of doing so.

To some extent, I wish UCP and NDP weren't the only options in Alberta politics and smaller parties (such as the Alberta Party) could gain some ground amongst the non-UCP vote.

The problem with having any centrist third party is that it will siphon votes off from the NDP. You can see from the last provincial election that almost all AP 2019 votes went to the NDP.  As I stated, it is now the catch-all non Conservative party.

Though the way to avoid that as a standing risk is to do better in general; to try to turn what can be a vicious cycle into a virtuous one. Then maybe you get some of the more social democratically compatible Liberals think sometimes about leaping the other way.

Just today!:
B.C. Liberal MP Aldag in talks with provincial NDP to run in the fall election
MP John Aldag denies he's considering a provincial run for the B.C. NDP because of the unpopularity of the Trudeau Liberals federally.
The Hill Times (firewall protected.)

This is quite interesting. I've heard of BC NDPers going Liberal federally, but I'm not aware of the reverse. Usually federal Liberals have run for the provincial Liberals as well.

I don't know why I did this, but for some reason I made a note in an old notebook of a Federal Liberal nomination in Calgary back in 2004 and NDP MLA Joe Ceci lost a federal Liberal nomination.

Also, Annie McKitrick who was a Richmond B.C School Trustee lost a Federal Liberal nomination in Richmond was a one term Alberta NDP MLA from 2015-2019 for Sherwood Park.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Jason Markusoff on Naheed Nenshi. Marfusoff I find to be the best media organization (CBC) analyst of Alberta and Alberta politics.

Ex-mayor Nenshi loathes partisan politics. He may run for NDP leader anyway
He'd bring profile to leadership race. But does the party want him, and does he want the party?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/naheed-nenshi-alberta-ndp-leadership-mulls-run-analysis-1.7105836

My only complaint (if that's the right word) about the article is that it defined 'does the party want him' very narrowly: the parties MLAs not rank and file members. I guess it's too early for anything else. Also, Markusoff didn't speak to MLAs (not on the record anyway) but did reasonably ask whether an ideologically committed caucus would accept a 'post partisan' leader.

My personal view (worth what you pay for it) is that Nenshi would be a terrible fit and that he should endorse Ganley who is both a Calgary MLA and probably the candidate closest to his political views.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Nenshi is considering running!!! https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/naheed-nenshi-considering-bid-alberta-ndp-leadership

This is very exciting news. Hopefully he does indeed enter the race.

Since you're a New Democrat I don't understand your excitement at a provincial ND party being led by a person who has not been a New Democrat.

I've always liked Nenshi as a politician. Of course, I don't always agree with him, and he may not be a social democrat, but let's face it.. the NDP in Alberta is basically just a coalition of non-Conservatives these days. As long as it has a chance of winning, it should be trying to pick leaders who have the best chance of doing so.

To some extent, I wish UCP and NDP weren't the only options in Alberta politics and smaller parties (such as the Alberta Party) could gain some ground amongst the non-UCP vote.

The problem with having any centrist third party is that it will siphon votes off from the NDP. You can see from the last provincial election that almost all AP 2019 votes went to the NDP.  As I stated, it is now the catch-all non Conservative party.

Though the way to avoid that as a standing risk is to do better in general; to try to turn what can be a vicious cycle into a virtuous one. Then maybe you get some of the more social democratically compatible Liberals think sometimes about leaping the other way.

Just today!:
B.C. Liberal MP Aldag in talks with provincial NDP to run in the fall election
MP John Aldag denies he's considering a provincial run for the B.C. NDP because of the unpopularity of the Trudeau Liberals federally.
The Hill Times (firewall protected.)

This is quite interesting. I've heard of BC NDPers going Liberal federally, but I'm not aware of the reverse. Usually federal Liberals have run for the provincial Liberals as well.

I don't know why I did this, but for some reason I made a note in an old notebook of a Federal Liberal nomination in Calgary back in 2004 and NDP MLA Joe Ceci lost a federal Liberal nomination.

Also, Annie McKitrick who was a Richmond B.C School Trustee lost a Federal Liberal nomination in Richmond was a one term Alberta NDP MLA from 2015-2019 for Sherwood Park.

Are there any cases of a federal Liberal running for the provincial NDP in BC though? There are cases of BC New Democrats later running for the federal Liberals, but are there cases of the reverse happening?

Not that I can think of off the top of my head. Going back a long way, Pauline Jewett was a Federal Liberal M.P in an Ottawa riding in the 1960s or 1970s who later became a Federal NDP M.P (and Foreign Affairs Critic) in British Columbia in the 1980s, and Dave Zirnhelt, a B.C NDP cabinet minister in the 1990s, ran for either the federal or provincial Liberals in the 1960s.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

In actual leadership race news, Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi officially entered the race today with this (in my opinion) pretty well-done announcement video.

Rhiannon Hoyle and Nagwan Al-Guneid who were both on some lists anyway as potential leadership candidates have both endorsed Pancholi (as has Marie Renaud.)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

In actual leadership race news, Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi officially entered the race today with this (in my opinion) pretty well-done announcement video.

So two of the three frontrunner that were identified have announced as official candidates; Ganley and Pancholi, Calgary vs Edmonton (lol). AND rumours of Nenshi. Do we think Hoffman will join the race? any other names bubbling up?
Do we have a sense of the positions, policies, leanings of Ganley and Pancholi?

These are the other names listed as potential candidates on Wiki
1.Deron Bilous, MLA for Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview (2012-2023), former Minister of Economic Development[16]
2.Joe Ceci, MLA for Calgary-Buffalo (2015-present), former Minister of Finance[16]
3.Court Ellingson, MLA for Calgary-Foothills (2023-present)[17]
4.Todd Hirsch, director of Energy Transition Centre at Innovate Calgary (2023-present), chief economist at ATB Financial (2007-2022)[17]
5.Sarah Hoffman, MLA for Edmonton-Glenora (2015-present), former Deputy Premier and Minister of Health[6][2]
6.Janis Irwin, MLA for Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood (2019-present)[16]
7.Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour (2005-present)[17]
8.Naheed Nenshi, former Mayor of Calgary (2010-2021)[6][18]
9.David Shepherd, MLA for Edmonton-Centre (2015-2019) and Edmonton-City Centre (2019-present)[6][2][17]
10.Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse, MLA for Edmonton-Rutherford (2023-present)[19]

I believe most expect that Janis Irwin will endorse Sarah Hoffman. Janis Irwin was a senior advisor to Rachel Notley from 2015-2019 while Sarah Hoffman was Deputy Premier.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Irwin is officially out (not surprisingly).

According to the wiki page, Sarah Hoffman has just three endorsements. I would have thought she would have the most endorsements.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Pancholi endorses defederating from the Federal NDP (albeit without using those specific words).

My understanding is that this would be practically impossible because the NDP constitution (or manifesto, whatever) requires all the ND parties to be aligned (due to the NDP seeing itself primarily as a movement first and a political party second.) So, if the Alberta NDP did separate, the Federal NDP would have to start a new provincial Alberta NDP.

Even if the Federal NDP tried to ignore that, I think there would be a fair sized contingent of Alberta New Democrats who would insist, not even including New Democrats in other provinces.

The easiest way to send this message might be to simply say that any New Democrat in Alberta who runs federally (even for the nomination) is ineligible to run provincially.

It would probably also help if the Alberta NDP didn't hire any high profile federal New Democrats as staffers (like Brian Topp and Anne McGrath.)

On the issue that seems to have brought this up again, M.P Charlie Angus' bill to ban fossil fuel advertising, I think that's a silly distraction, but the NDP might do well to remind people that the Stephen Harper government and the Jason Kenney government if not (yet) the Danielle Smith government, which are all wholly owned subsidiaries of the fossil fuel sector, all tried to effectively ban environmental groups who protested the fossil fuel sector.

Stephen Harper's government under the Ministry of Revenue, whose minister Kerry Lynne Findley is still an M.P, conducted a series of likely illegal audits against environmental non profits, and Jason Kenney spent millions of taxpayers dollars on a pointless exercise to investigate foreign donations to environmental non profits.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

David Climenhaga more or less confirms what I said about the Alberta NDP trying to split from the Federal NDP.

"To make matters worse, disaffiliation would probably require the federal NDP to change its constitution"

The rest of the article throws more cold water on the idea. Worth a read.
https://rabble.ca/general/splitting-the-alberta-ndp-from-the-federal-party-is-a-bad-idea/

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

It seems Gil McGowan actually is going to run.

Mr. McGowan, 56, made his intention to run clear in a series of direct social media messages to potential supporters the same day, saying “I haven’t officially announced yet, but I’m going to join the NDP leadership race. I think it’s time we have a worker leader leading the workers’ party.”

https://albertapolitics.ca/2024/02/edmonton-rutherford-mla-jodi-calihoo-stonehouse-and-afl-president-gil-mcgowan-join-ndp-leadership-race/

When was the last time a union leader ran for the leadership of the NDP other than in the Atlantic or Quebec where the NDP hadn't been competitive at the time?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

It seems Gil McGowan actually is going to run.

Mr. McGowan, 56, made his intention to run clear in a series of direct social media messages to potential supporters the same day, saying “I haven’t officially announced yet, but I’m going to join the NDP leadership race. I think it’s time we have a worker leader leading the workers’ party.”

https://albertapolitics.ca/2024/02/edmonton-rutherford-mla-jodi-calihoo-stonehouse-and-afl-president-gil-mcgowan-join-ndp-leadership-race/

When was the last time a union leader ran for the leadership of the NDP other than in the Atlantic or Quebec where the NDP hadn't been competitive at the time?

Gary Doer had previously been head of the Manitoba Government Employees Union

Very good point, but he had been elected as an MLA in 1986 and was a senior cabinet minister (regarded as the 'minister for everything' though I'm surprised he wasn't referred to as 'the fixer' instead.)

In Saskatchewan, Woodrow Lloyd who was Premier from 1961-1964 had been a longtime MLA and cabinet minister had been the head of the Saskatchewan teachers' union before that. To be sure, I think the party in Saskatchewan kept the name CCF for a bit longer than federally.

Marit Stiles in Ontario was also a union director (ACTRA) prior to getting elected as an MPP and Rachel Notley had been a union official as well, though the NDP was hardly a competitive party at the time she took over the leadership (except for parts of Edmonton.)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

As the organizer for the procrastinist union, I hope to announce my candidacy on March 13. 

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Nenshi is running.

Braid: Ex-Mayor Nenshi joins NDP race; slams Smith's 'playground fights'
Former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi offers himself as the outsider who can build a broad coalition to defeat the UCP and defend core values of tolerance and inclusion.
https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/don-braid-naheed-nenshi-joins-alberta-ndp-leadership-race

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

His video is interesting. Uses orange and his personal brand of purple interchangeably. It also had a Tommy Douglas quote.

I think he will win quite easily. Will be interesting to see what happens with the caucus, none of whom support him (yet).

Actually, at least one MLA supports him. Court Ellingson from Calgary is his campaign co-chair...also another Calgary MLA Kamir Kayande has endorsed him too

Samir Kayande. Very smart person. He was appointed the associate finance critic right after being elected. He was mentioned as a possible candidate himself.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Jann Arden has also endorsed Nenshi.

I'll be impressed if Corb Lund endorses Nenshi.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi is dropping out of the race and throwing her support behind Nenshi. According to Globe reporter Emma Graney, this followed the first update to leadership candidates on membership numbers since Nenshi entered the race, which showed that party membership had doubled in a single week.

Membership has doubled in a single week? Awesome Ganleymentum!

I guess Pancholi dropped out of the race to support Nenshi because her campaign got off to a Rakhi start.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I think Nenshi will win leadership.  How he does in general election harder to say, but I actually think he has a 40-50% chance of winning next election.  Smith has a tendency to do stupid things and I also think if Poilievre is PM, people will be more open to having a centre-left premier to balance things out.  I actually think had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won in 2023.  I believe Trudeau's unpopularity in Alberta is biggest thing keeping UCP in power.  Heck even Ford I think would be doing worse in polls if Tories in power in Ottawa.  Alberta may not have history of voting opposites like Ontario but this trend is not unique to Canada.  You see it in many other jurisdictions where subnational or in case of EU, European where opposite party of who is in power often win in those.  US usually that way and 2022 midterms somewhat unusual in GOP failing to pick up states as usually opposite party of one holding white house does. 

Its not so much people voting opposite is more if Poilievre is in office, the sovereignty act, need to stand up to feds would have as much appeal as it does now.  Never mind Poilievre probably does seem things that will be unpopular even in Alberta.  Austerity is not popular anywhere including Alberta so NDP can easily make argument that they will invest not cut like UCP and federal Tories while won't have to worry about carbon tax as that will be gone.

I actually don't agree with Ontario. Ford is quite chummy with Justin Trudeau to the benefit of Ford if no longer Trudeau and has shifted largely to the 'mushy middle' to be around where Trudeau is (at least more in line with more centrist Liberals.)

Finally, the Federal Conservatives and Ford don't seem to like each other very much as the Poilievre Conservatives, especially their recent by-election winner, seem to have a great dislike for Education Minister Stephen Lecce.

I especially don't understand that as Lecce was once a senior staffer for Stephen Harper.

If, as you seem to assume here given your comments about the UCP being hurt by a Federal Conservative Party government (presumably becoming unpopular) I think Ford/Poilievre have established enough distance already that Ford would probably benefit from that.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Former Calgary Liberal MLA Harry Chase has endorsed Kathleen Ganley. This leadership race will clearly not go beyond one ballot.