I think Nenshi will win leadership. How he does in general election harder to say, but I actually think he has a 40-50% chance of winning next election. Smith has a tendency to do stupid things and I also think if Poilievre is PM, people will be more open to having a centre-left premier to balance things out. I actually think had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won in 2023. I believe Trudeau's unpopularity in Alberta is biggest thing keeping UCP in power. Heck even Ford I think would be doing worse in polls if Tories in power in Ottawa. Alberta may not have history of voting opposites like Ontario but this trend is not unique to Canada. You see it in many other jurisdictions where subnational or in case of EU, European where opposite party of who is in power often win in those. US usually that way and 2022 midterms somewhat unusual in GOP failing to pick up states as usually opposite party of one holding white house does.
Its not so much people voting opposite is more if Poilievre is in office, the sovereignty act, need to stand up to feds would have as much appeal as it does now. Never mind Poilievre probably does seem things that will be unpopular even in Alberta. Austerity is not popular anywhere including Alberta so NDP can easily make argument that they will invest not cut like UCP and federal Tories while won't have to worry about carbon tax as that will be gone.
I actually don't agree with Ontario. Ford is quite chummy with Justin Trudeau to the benefit of Ford if no longer Trudeau and has shifted largely to the 'mushy middle' to be around where Trudeau is (at least more in line with more centrist Liberals.)
Finally, the Federal Conservatives and Ford don't seem to like each other very much as the Poilievre Conservatives, especially their recent by-election winner, seem to have a great dislike for Education Minister Stephen Lecce.
I especially don't understand that as Lecce was once a senior staffer for Stephen Harper.
If, as you seem to assume here given your comments about the UCP being hurt by a Federal Conservative Party government (presumably becoming unpopular) I think Ford/Poilievre have established enough distance already that Ford would probably benefit from that.
Good point. Also I think Ford knows history of Ontario voting opposites. But going back to Alberta, I think Poilievre being PM helps NDP as Smith won't have Trudeau as whipping boy. Whether enough or not is hard to say. Biggest challenge for NDP is UCP's near lock on rural ridings so they need to run the table in Calgary. Narrowly winning Calgary as did in 2023 isn't enough. But if can win 20 of 26 seats that may be enough but just barely. So they have more paths, whomever wins should aggressively target the two Red Deer seats, other Lethbridge and donut around Edmonton. That gives them a bit more breathing room as I have found in elections if you have a very narrow path, almost always lose as never win every riding you wish.
That may be a bit easier, as Alberta should get a new electoral map before next election.
