What if GA 2020 goes the way of IN 2008, while AZ 2020 becomes NC 2008?

[cherry mandarin]

In other words, the GA result was a fairly fluky one. It flips back to the GOP next year and remains a relatively safe state, with the exception of true nationwide landslides. On the other hand, AZ turns into a marginal swing state, but continues to remain somewhat to the right of the tipping-point in each cycle.


Personally, I don't really buy this theory, for a number of reasons.

Most importantly, Biden's 2020 margin—whether you're looking at the nationwide popular vote, total EV count, or tipping-point state—was significantly narrower than Obama's back in 2008 in each case. The latter victor won a landslide victory, and the blue wave that ended up engulfing both IN and NC most likely wouldn't have been possible without it.

Furthermore, the long-term statewide trends in both GA and AZ currently look much stronger for the Democratic Party than they did in either NC or especially IN at the equivalent point during the 2012 cycle.


In my view, GA and AZ have both cemented their place firmly in the middle of the swing-state conversation. This is further supported by the fact that Democratic candidates have won the most recent three Senate races in both states, in addition to having flipped the AZ governorship last year.

What do you think?

[Vosem]

AZ is one of a very small number of states -- together with FL and the Carolinas, and nowhere else -- where self-reported rates of religious observance are growing. I kind of suspect that the opposite of your theory might be likelier, where AZ goes back to being a relatively Republican state (much as part of what happened in IN in 2008 was Obama being an unusually good fit for it, I think Trump is an unusually bad fit for AZ), while GA is more consistently a swing state moving forward.

I can think of reasons why 2020 might've been an unusually good cycle for Democrats in GA, especially if black turnout relative to white turnout declines moving forward, but it's hard for me to think of any demographic reasons why GA shouldn't be trending hard Democrat. (I can think of turnout-related or campaign-related reasons 2020 might've been a fluke, but I don't think it'll stop being competitive). Whereas for AZ I certainly can think of those reasons, even if I'm not confident that they're correct.

[Cyrusman]

AZ is one of a very small number of states -- together with FL and the Carolinas, and nowhere else -- where self-reported rates of religious observance are growing. I kind of suspect that the opposite of your theory might be likelier, where AZ goes back to being a relatively Republican state (much as part of what happened in IN in 2008 was Obama being an unusually good fit for it, I think Trump is an unusually bad fit for AZ), while GA is more consistently a swing state moving forward.

I can think of reasons why 2020 might've been an unusually good cycle for Democrats in GA, especially if black turnout relative to white turnout declines moving forward, but it's hard for me to think of any demographic reasons why GA shouldn't be trending hard Democrat. (I can think of turnout-related or campaign-related reasons 2020 might've been a fluke, but I don't think it'll stop being competitive). Whereas for AZ I certainly can think of those reasons, even if I'm not confident that they're correct.

How do you measure this in terms of those states reporting a higher number of self-reported rates of religious observance?

[Devils30]

AZ is one of a very small number of states -- together with FL and the Carolinas, and nowhere else -- where self-reported rates of religious observance are growing. I kind of suspect that the opposite of your theory might be likelier, where AZ goes back to being a relatively Republican state (much as part of what happened in IN in 2008 was Obama being an unusually good fit for it, I think Trump is an unusually bad fit for AZ), while GA is more consistently a swing state moving forward.

I can think of reasons why 2020 might've been an unusually good cycle for Democrats in GA, especially if black turnout relative to white turnout declines moving forward, but it's hard for me to think of any demographic reasons why GA shouldn't be trending hard Democrat. (I can think of turnout-related or campaign-related reasons 2020 might've been a fluke, but I don't think it'll stop being competitive). Whereas for AZ I certainly can think of those reasons, even if I'm not confident that they're correct.

I feel like GA is the #1 state to be a 5-7 point polling miss and make Rs disappointed after false hope. The trends all say it's moving Dem (Warnock won with Biden's coalition) and the Atlanta suburbs have had 10%+ Dem trends in 3 of the past 4 elections.

If anything I see GA blue in 2032 in a 310-320 GOP electoral college win.

[wnwnwn]

No. They didn't swing like Indiana did in 2008.

[Vice President Christian Man]

There would have to be a large swing of both suburban white, and black voters towards the GOP to make this possible. Trump's likely to improve with black voters but I doubt that alone would get Georgia back to "safe R" territory. If anything I think that Georgia proves to be a must-win swing state in the short term, while the size and influence of Atlanta will determine whether or not it would become "solid D". Although regardless I don't see the GOP dropping below 40% unless there's a native son benefit because of how strongly "R" the rurals are. The AZ/NC comparison is likely though. Despite Trump bashing McCain, he would've won it easily if it wasn't for Phoenix and its immediate suburbs. All he'd have to do is win a handful of Trump-Biden voters to get it back on track which I doubt would be a problem. Although like neighboring Nevada, having a large city represent the majority of its voting population will prove difficult for the GOP to make solid inroads, until the GOP is able to gain ground with Latino's which it has been doing.

[Skill and Chance]

AZ is one of a very small number of states -- together with FL and the Carolinas, and nowhere else -- where self-reported rates of religious observance are growing. I kind of suspect that the opposite of your theory might be likelier, where AZ goes back to being a relatively Republican state (much as part of what happened in IN in 2008 was Obama being an unusually good fit for it, I think Trump is an unusually bad fit for AZ), while GA is more consistently a swing state moving forward.

I can think of reasons why 2020 might've been an unusually good cycle for Democrats in GA, especially if black turnout relative to white turnout declines moving forward, but it's hard for me to think of any demographic reasons why GA shouldn't be trending hard Democrat. (I can think of turnout-related or campaign-related reasons 2020 might've been a fluke, but I don't think it'll stop being competitive). Whereas for AZ I certainly can think of those reasons, even if I'm not confident that they're correct.

I broadly agree with this.  GA feels like it "should" end up more Dem than VA in the long run.  AZ feels like it could have been a one-time thing given the pronounced Hispanic shift right and Trump fracturing the state Republican party.  The 2022 results are the strongest argument against this, though. 


Also, polling has consistently overstated the extent of R improvement with black voters, though there has been a very modest trend.  However, R's keep overperforming 2010's numbers in plurality Hispanic areas everywhere in all kinds of elections and often dramatically.  I would bet on AZ being the fluke.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

AZ is one of a very small number of states -- together with FL and the Carolinas, and nowhere else -- where self-reported rates of religious observance are growing. I kind of suspect that the opposite of your theory might be likelier, where AZ goes back to being a relatively Republican state (much as part of what happened in IN in 2008 was Obama being an unusually good fit for it, I think Trump is an unusually bad fit for AZ), while GA is more consistently a swing state moving forward.

I can think of reasons why 2020 might've been an unusually good cycle for Democrats in GA, especially if black turnout relative to white turnout declines moving forward, but it's hard for me to think of any demographic reasons why GA shouldn't be trending hard Democrat. (I can think of turnout-related or campaign-related reasons 2020 might've been a fluke, but I don't think it'll stop being competitive). Whereas for AZ I certainly can think of those reasons, even if I'm not confident that they're correct.

I broadly agree with this.  GA feels like it "should" end up more Dem than VA in the long run.  AZ feels like it could have been a one-time thing given the pronounced Hispanic shift right and Trump fracturing the state Republican party.  The 2022 results are the strongest argument against this, though.  


Also, polling has consistently overstated the extent of R improvement with black voters, though there has been a very modest trend.  However, R's keep overperforming 2010's numbers in plurality Hispanic areas everywhere in all kinds of elections and often dramatically.  I would bet on AZ being the fluke.

Given crosstabs right now, I have GA voting to the right of NC and possibly TX for 2024. The pre-election polls in 2020 and 2016 were generally accurate with black voters iirc.

Even if black margins don't change, 2022 saw a 20% drop in black turnout relative to 2018. If this turnout drop holds for 2024, this already shifts Georgia to Trump +5 to 6, before any Hispanic/Asian shifts. Trump also did go from 8% to 12% of the black vote from 2016 to 2020, so 17% (with higher third parties) seems pretty reasonable for 2024.

[MT Treasurer]

Neither state was a fluke. While it’s possible (but far from guaranteed, especially at this stage) that Republicans make significant improvements with Hispanics and/or Black voters and offset D-friendly migration into the state, generational turnover, and suburban gains, that’s not what would make those states reliably Republican again, it’s what would make them competitive (as opposed to likely D) for the GOP. They’re going to need those gains to stay afloat, and so far, they haven’t materialized. If or when they do, I suspect AZ and GA will be the least of Democrats' worries.

Between AZ and GA, however, I would probably argue that AZ is the one where the floor will collapse faster for the GOP. GA has a more substantial Asian population, which — combined with Black voters becoming far less monolithical and more sorted out by religiosity/income levels/cultural attitudes — would have a greater impact in that state and also strikes me as more likely than Rs massively improving with Hispanics in AZ or offsetting the influx of more liberal transplants into that state. Simply put: AZ is more likely to go the way of CO than GA is to go the way of IL, but both could easily happen.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Between AZ and GA, however, I would probably argue that AZ is the one where the floor will collapse faster for the GOP. GA has a more substantial Asian population, which — combined with Black voters becoming far less monolithical and more sorted out by religiosity/income levels/cultural attitudes — would have a greater impact in that state and also strikes me as more likely than Rs massively improving with Hispanics in AZ or offsetting the influx of more liberal transplants into that state. Simply put: AZ is more likely to go the way of CO than GA is to go the way of IL, but both could easily happen.

My argument in favor of AZ trending D faster is that it's starting from a smaller population baseline, which means the same amount of raw in-migration could have a bigger effect on voting patterns there. GA isn't that much more Asian than AZ (even if we go by "alone" rather than "in combination") and I doubt whatever ethnic, educational, and occupational differences there are between Asian citizens in those states are big enough to matter electorally.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I do think Georgia is a very potential flip for the GOP this cycle and a non trump republican would win it decently but even then, I don't think it's going to remain GOP leaning in the long term due to the increasing black population. Again, the more blacks that move in, the higher % of the vote republicans need with them.