Which states are most likely to see a different result in 2024 senate elections to 2020 presidential
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Poll
Question: Which states are most likely to see a different result in 2024 senate elections to 2020 presidential?
#1
FL going Democratic		  
#2
MT going Democratic		  
#3
OH going Democratic		  
#4
TX going Democratic		  
#5
AZ going Independent		  
#6
AZ going Republican		  
#7
MI going Republican		  
#8
NV going Republican		  
#9
PA going Republican		  
#10
WI going Republican		  
#11
Another state going Democratic		  
#12
Another state going Republican		  
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Author Topic: Which states are most likely to see a different result in 2024 senate elections to 2020 presidential  (Read 606 times)
patzer
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« on: December 19, 2023, 02:09:12 PM »
This is, I think, quite an interesting question. What do you think are the three most likely states to flip between the 2020 presidential election and the 2024 senate elections?

My opinion is that the three most likely are probably Ohio going Democratic (Brown being a strong incumbent) and Nevada and Michigan going Republican (swing states which Trump could easily win and carry downballot candidates with him).
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S019
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2023, 05:10:54 PM »
NV/AZ/WI
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2023, 05:13:28 PM »
AZ/NV, followed by MI/MT/OH/TX.
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riverwalk3
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2023, 08:18:05 PM »
Arizona and Ohio. Red Arizona and Blue Ohio seems possible at this point given polling.
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David Hume
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« Reply #4 on: December 25, 2023, 01:54:23 AM »
MT and it's not even close. MT on presidential level is safe R, at senate is toss-up, the largest difference. Most of others are at most one degree differences, except OH, which is likely R to toss-up.
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JMT
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« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2023, 11:55:55 AM »
I said MT/OH/AZ.

MT and OH because Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown still have a path to victory.

AZ because of the potential 3 way senate race. If Sinema runs, I can see a scenario where she pulls enough votes from Gallego to allow Lake to win.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2023, 10:26:14 AM »
Ds are leading in OH, MT AND NEB S races and 5 pts behind in NC, MO


Emerson
Brown and Tester 3/4 ahead, Osborne
MO, NC Kunce, Quade are 5 pts behind

Making FL/TX defacto R
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