Who is likelier to win re-election?

[Lambsbread]

These races are, other than WV, the likeliest flips of the cycle. Which incumbent Democratic Senator from a Trump state is likelier to hold on?

[SnowLabrador]

Brown. He won by more last time, with less favorable turnout dynamics in Ohio than in Montana. With presidential turnout Montana will be considerably redder than Ohio. That being said, I expect both to lose.

Ohio: Moreno +4 (FLIP)
Montana: Sheehy +7 (FLIP)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'd rank their GOP opponents like this in terms of candidate quality
1. Dolan
2. Rosendale
Gap
3. LaRose
Another Larger Gap
4. Moreno
5. Sheehy

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Sherrod Brown but both are basically screwed.

[MT Treasurer]

OH has a stronger GOP field & Brown needs more 'raw' crossover votes than Tester in a more heterogeneous state. On the other hand, it seems like the GOP hasn’t really started going hard after Brown the way they have with Tester.

MT is redder than OH & Tester is (unlike in 2018, where the GOP only made a half-hearted effort when Tester had already defined himself & Rosendale) this cycle's top target for Republicans. MT GOP is also a lot better organized than in 2012 and the traditional MTDEM playbook is starting to wear thin and is just as predictable as in 2020.

These roughly cancel each other out, I think. Probably a negligible difference, although Tester certainly has a lower floor than Brown (think Heitkamp-style loss for Tester vs. McCaskill/Donnelly-style loss for Brown).

[Pericles]

Both look similarly strong and Ohio is a more Democratic state, so lean Brown, but high margin of uncertainty when both are relying on overperforming Biden by a lot.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Moreno has all of Sheehy and Rosendale's positives without the negatives(I don't think he's a carpetbagger?)

[Xing]

Brown is likelier to overperform Biden by 8 than Tester is to outperform him by 15.