Trump working with the NRSC on candidate recruitment

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/sophiacai99/status/1735656672146710721

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This moves the senate in favor of democrats. Heck I’d say it makes it tilt democratic control

[2016]

This moves the senate in favor of democrats. Heck I’d say it makes it tilt democratic control

How? The Democrats are already down one as West Virginia is a certain loss. Democrats are not going to win either Missouri, Tennessee, Texas or Florida. Polarization will kick in allowing Republicans to hold those Seats.

And then Democrats would need to hold Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

My hunch is Trumps Support in Montana will track closer to 2016 then to 2020. Can Tester stave of Sheehy when Trump wins the State by 15 or more? I seriously doubt that.

[MT Treasurer]

So instead of picking flawed Trumpist candidates, the NRSC will pick flawed consultant candidates promoted by McConnell and out-of-touch leadership who risk massively underperforming Trump against Democrats who know how to appeal to actual human beings.

The fact that these people think Dave McCormick is the 'ideal guy' for PA is very telling, and very sad.

[Tekken_Guy]

This moves the senate in favor of democrats. Heck I’d say it makes it tilt democratic control

How? The Democrats are already down one as West Virginia is a certain loss. Democrats are not going to win either Missouri, Tennessee, Texas or Florida. Polarization will kick in allowing Republicans to hold those Seats.

And then Democrats would need to hold Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

My hunch is Trumps Support in Montana will track closer to 2016 then to 2020. Can Tester stave of Sheehy when Trump wins the State by 15 or more? I seriously doubt that.

Can he stave off Rosendale?

[oldtimer]

So instead of picking flawed Trumpist candidates, the NRSC will pick flawed consultant candidates promoted by McConnell and out-of-touch leadership who risk massively underperforming Trump against Democrats who know how to appeal to actual human beings.

The fact that these people think Dave McCormick is the 'ideal guy' for PA is very telling, and very sad.

Well Republicans don't have much of a chance to beat any incumbent in a state that Trump would win by less than 10.

So Daines is just throwing Montana at this point, and the self funders burning their loot.

[MT Treasurer]

So instead of picking flawed Trumpist candidates, the NRSC will pick flawed consultant candidates promoted by McConnell and out-of-touch leadership who risk massively underperforming Trump against Democrats who know how to appeal to actual human beings.

The fact that these people think Dave McCormick is the 'ideal guy' for PA is very telling, and very sad.

Well Republicans don't have much of a chance to beat any incumbent in a state that Trump would win by less than 10.

...What?

[oldtimer]

So instead of picking flawed Trumpist candidates, the NRSC will pick flawed consultant candidates promoted by McConnell and out-of-touch leadership who risk massively underperforming Trump against Democrats who know how to appeal to actual human beings.

The fact that these people think Dave McCormick is the 'ideal guy' for PA is very telling, and very sad.

Well Republicans don't have much of a chance to beat any incumbent in a state that Trump would win by less than 10.

...What?

Lets see:

Pennsylvania ? Nah
Wisconsin ? Nope
Arizona ? Don't think so
Nevada ? Hmmm

Ok I give you Nevada as the only swing state where it's realistic to expect a Democrat incumbent to need to make an effort.

Michigan doesn't have an incumbent, so it's not on the list.

[S019]

I don’t know where this idea comes from that Trumpist candidates would help the GOP. Biden is only President right now because lifelong Republicans defected for him over COVID (look at how he won Wisconsin or Arizona and you’ll see my point). The Republican House majority ran through Biden districts and was based on reaching out to voters who backed Biden but wanted a change. The Republicans nominating a ton of Trumpist candidates is a high risk strategy because it ties their fate to an incredibly polarizing and hated figure who is likely to be convicted. If anything Republicans want to be winning those Biden Republican downballot to not just hold but expand their House majority and to take the Senate. One example is Ohio, even a weak candidate like JD Vance was able to mostly hold Trump’s Appalachian margins, suggesting those voters are likely gone for good, but a more mainstream choice like Dolan or LaRose could benefit from these ancestral Republicans in places like Columbus. If Brown underruns Biden in the big metros, he is basically done and Joe Biden is honestly a better fit for those areas than Sherrod Brown who has defined his whole political career against the types of people who live in these areas (case in point: there are Biden/Renacci areas in southern Delaware). If voters are upset with Democrats and Biden, but still uncomfortable with Trump, Republicans would be wise to leave the route to punish Democrats by running generic R candidates who would definitely be viable for moderate voters feeling antipathy towards Biden but perhaps feeling disgust towards Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is going to jail it's a 279 map anyways the rest is wave insurance I don't care what Harris X has Trump isn't winning 279

[2016]

This moves the senate in favor of democrats. Heck I’d say it makes it tilt democratic control

How? The Democrats are already down one as West Virginia is a certain loss. Democrats are not going to win either Missouri, Tennessee, Texas or Florida. Polarization will kick in allowing Republicans to hold those Seats.

And then Democrats would need to hold Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

My hunch is Trumps Support in Montana will track closer to 2016 then to 2020. Can Tester stave of Sheehy when Trump wins the State by 15 or more? I seriously doubt that.

Can he stave off Rosendale?

I know you I think I am crazy but Tester would beat Rosendale by 7 or 8 Points. Rosendale is that bad of Candidate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don’t know where this idea comes from that Trumpist candidates would help the GOP. Biden is only President right now because lifelong Republicans defected for him over COVID (look at how he won Wisconsin or Arizona and you’ll see my point). The Republican House majority ran through Biden districts and was based on reaching out to voters who backed Biden but wanted a change. The Republicans nominating a ton of Trumpist candidates is a high risk strategy because it ties their fate to an incredibly polarizing and hated figure who is likely to be convicted. If anything Republicans want to be winning those Biden Republican downballot to not just hold but expand their House majority and to take the Senate. One example is Ohio, even a weak candidate like JD Vance was able to mostly hold Trump’s Appalachian margins, suggesting those voters are likely gone for good, but a more mainstream choice like Dolan or LaRose could benefit from these ancestral Republicans in places like Columbus. If Brown underruns Biden in the big metros, he is basically done and Joe Biden is honestly a better fit for those areas than Sherrod Brown who has defined his whole political career against the types of people who live in these areas (case in point: there are Biden/Renacci areas in southern Delaware). If voters are upset with Democrats and Biden, but still uncomfortable with Trump, Republicans would be wise to leave the route to punish Democrats by running generic R candidates who would definitely be viable for moderate voters feeling antipathy towards Biden but perhaps feeling disgust towards Trump.

Sherrod Brown is not going to underrun Joe Biden lol. Why do you think Generic Democrats are polling better than the latter right now?

[S019]

I don’t know where this idea comes from that Trumpist candidates would help the GOP. Biden is only President right now because lifelong Republicans defected for him over COVID (look at how he won Wisconsin or Arizona and you’ll see my point). The Republican House majority ran through Biden districts and was based on reaching out to voters who backed Biden but wanted a change. The Republicans nominating a ton of Trumpist candidates is a high risk strategy because it ties their fate to an incredibly polarizing and hated figure who is likely to be convicted. If anything Republicans want to be winning those Biden Republican downballot to not just hold but expand their House majority and to take the Senate. One example is Ohio, even a weak candidate like JD Vance was able to mostly hold Trump’s Appalachian margins, suggesting those voters are likely gone for good, but a more mainstream choice like Dolan or LaRose could benefit from these ancestral Republicans in places like Columbus. If Brown underruns Biden in the big metros, he is basically done and Joe Biden is honestly a better fit for those areas than Sherrod Brown who has defined his whole political career against the types of people who live in these areas (case in point: there are Biden/Renacci areas in southern Delaware). If voters are upset with Democrats and Biden, but still uncomfortable with Trump, Republicans would be wise to leave the route to punish Democrats by running generic R candidates who would definitely be viable for moderate voters feeling antipathy towards Biden but perhaps feeling disgust towards Trump.

Sherrod Brown is not going to underrun Joe Biden lol. Why do you think Generic Democrats are polling better than the latter right now?

I never said he would underperform overall, just underperform in large urban and suburban counties that he has spent his whole career defining himself against. Anyways let’s just say I am skeptical that congressional Democrats also escape the anti incumbent mood. All across the world right now you see opposition parties surging and we see that in the US now too, this idea that congressional Democrats will escape this unscathed is bizarre. The generic ballot is currently basically neck and neck with(maybe even slightly ahead of) the presidential race. Also most of these congressional democrats will not be facing someone under four indictments who will likely be convicted, it seems fairly logical which option will end up doing worse, especially since it is easier to tie government politicians to the unpopular president as opposed to the reverse.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don’t know where this idea comes from that Trumpist candidates would help the GOP. Biden is only President right now because lifelong Republicans defected for him over COVID (look at how he won Wisconsin or Arizona and you’ll see my point). The Republican House majority ran through Biden districts and was based on reaching out to voters who backed Biden but wanted a change. The Republicans nominating a ton of Trumpist candidates is a high risk strategy because it ties their fate to an incredibly polarizing and hated figure who is likely to be convicted. If anything Republicans want to be winning those Biden Republican downballot to not just hold but expand their House majority and to take the Senate. One example is Ohio, even a weak candidate like JD Vance was able to mostly hold Trump’s Appalachian margins, suggesting those voters are likely gone for good, but a more mainstream choice like Dolan or LaRose could benefit from these ancestral Republicans in places like Columbus. If Brown underruns Biden in the big metros, he is basically done and Joe Biden is honestly a better fit for those areas than Sherrod Brown who has defined his whole political career against the types of people who live in these areas (case in point: there are Biden/Renacci areas in southern Delaware). If voters are upset with Democrats and Biden, but still uncomfortable with Trump, Republicans would be wise to leave the route to punish Democrats by running generic R candidates who would definitely be viable for moderate voters feeling antipathy towards Biden but perhaps feeling disgust towards Trump.

Sherrod Brown is not going to underrun Joe Biden lol. Why do you think Generic Democrats are polling better than the latter right now?

I never said he would underperform overall, just underperform in large urban and suburban counties that he has spent his whole career defining himself against. Anyways let’s just say I am skeptical that congressional Democrats also escape the anti incumbent mood. All across the world right now you see opposition parties surging and we see that in the US now too, this idea that congressional Democrats will escape this unscathed is bizarre. The generic ballot is currently basically neck and neck with(maybe even slightly ahead of) the presidential race. Also most of these congressional democrats will not be facing someone under four indictments who will likely be convicted, it seems fairly logical which option will end up doing worse, especially since it is easier to tie government politicians to the unpopular president as opposed to the reverse.

Roy Cooper got 65% in College educated, Suburban wake County. Biden got 62. He also did better in Mecklenburg and Cabarrus, even though his opponent was literally FROM CHARLOTTE. It is possible Sherrod Brown doesn't outrun Biden as much in those types of counties but he is likely to outperform him virtually everywhere because Biden is so toxically unpopular. Fair enough on the last point though I think Biden is so much weaker than Generic D right now and Trump is polling much better than he was in 2016/2020 so people might  be more likely to vote D downballot, considering Trump has horrible approvals and given that I don't think they would want to give him a trifecta either

[Vosem]

I don’t know where this idea comes from that Trumpist candidates would help the GOP. Biden is only President right now because lifelong Republicans defected for him over COVID (look at how he won Wisconsin or Arizona and you’ll see my point). The Republican House majority ran through Biden districts and was based on reaching out to voters who backed Biden but wanted a change. The Republicans nominating a ton of Trumpist candidates is a high risk strategy because it ties their fate to an incredibly polarizing and hated figure who is likely to be convicted. If anything Republicans want to be winning those Biden Republican downballot to not just hold but expand their House majority and to take the Senate. One example is Ohio, even a weak candidate like JD Vance was able to mostly hold Trump’s Appalachian margins, suggesting those voters are likely gone for good, but a more mainstream choice like Dolan or LaRose could benefit from these ancestral Republicans in places like Columbus. If Brown underruns Biden in the big metros, he is basically done and Joe Biden is honestly a better fit for those areas than Sherrod Brown who has defined his whole political career against the types of people who live in these areas (case in point: there are Biden/Renacci areas in southern Delaware). If voters are upset with Democrats and Biden, but still uncomfortable with Trump, Republicans would be wise to leave the route to punish Democrats by running generic R candidates who would definitely be viable for moderate voters feeling antipathy towards Biden but perhaps feeling disgust towards Trump.

Sherrod Brown is not going to underrun Joe Biden lol. Why do you think Generic Democrats are polling better than the latter right now?

I doubt he underruns Joe Biden, but being tied with LaRose right now is not at all a good place to be; the most recent cycle in which undecideds failed to break against the Democrat in Ohio was, like, 2012, and even if you ignore that the general pattern is undecideds breaking towards the side they choose for President. Honestly it's hard to look at polling right now and think you'd rather be Brown than Tester. I don't think Brown has much of a shot unless Trump wins Ohio by less than around 6, whereas how Tester's race will end up going feels much more open-ended.

So instead of picking flawed Trumpist candidates, the NRSC will pick flawed consultant candidates promoted by McConnell and out-of-touch leadership who risk massively underperforming Trump against Democrats who know how to appeal to actual human beings.

The fact that these people think Dave McCormick is the 'ideal guy' for PA is very telling, and very sad.

Well Republicans don't have much of a chance to beat any incumbent in a state that Trump would win by less than 10.

...What?

Lets see:

Pennsylvania ? Nah
Wisconsin ? Nope
Arizona ? Don't think so
Nevada ? Hmmm

Ok I give you Nevada as the only swing state where it's realistic to expect a Democrat incumbent to need to make an effort.

Michigan doesn't have an incumbent, so it's not on the list.

McCormick and Hovde have basically both been recruited for their ability to spend lots of money; I don't think there's a reason to count either of them out. McCormick also has a somewhat interesting personal story (Gulf War veteran and so on), though I feel like I know much less about Hovde.

(Actually very underrated how an outright majority of the top Republican recruits this cycle are veterans: Sam Brown received a Purple Heart in Afghanistan, McCormick fought in Kuwait/Iraq, LaRose fought in Iraq, Sheehy also received a Purple Heart in Afghanistan though he's not visibly injured like Brown is, and Rogers...served from 1985-1989 although he didn't fight anywhere. It's not true for Justice, Lake, or Hovde, but war veterans are hugely overrepresented as GOP Senate candidates this cycle, which I'm guessing is what Daines hopes will end up being the narrative about them. Even among the safe-seat guys, Jim Banks served in Afghanistan, and even among the kind of hopeless attempts, Hung Cao served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia.)

Arizona does not have a Democratic incumbent, though it's actually kind of a unique race where there's a strong center-right third-party candidate obviously taking more from the Republicans than the Democrats.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/sophiacai99/status/1735656672146710721

I cant wait till this fool  is gone

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don’t know where this idea comes from that Trumpist candidates would help the GOP. Biden is only President right now because lifelong Republicans defected for him over COVID (look at how he won Wisconsin or Arizona and you’ll see my point). The Republican House majority ran through Biden districts and was based on reaching out to voters who backed Biden but wanted a change. The Republicans nominating a ton of Trumpist candidates is a high risk strategy because it ties their fate to an incredibly polarizing and hated figure who is likely to be convicted. If anything Republicans want to be winning those Biden Republican downballot to not just hold but expand their House majority and to take the Senate. One example is Ohio, even a weak candidate like JD Vance was able to mostly hold Trump’s Appalachian margins, suggesting those voters are likely gone for good, but a more mainstream choice like Dolan or LaRose could benefit from these ancestral Republicans in places like Columbus. If Brown underruns Biden in the big metros, he is basically done and Joe Biden is honestly a better fit for those areas than Sherrod Brown who has defined his whole political career against the types of people who live in these areas (case in point: there are Biden/Renacci areas in southern Delaware). If voters are upset with Democrats and Biden, but still uncomfortable with Trump, Republicans would be wise to leave the route to punish Democrats by running generic R candidates who would definitely be viable for moderate voters feeling antipathy towards Biden but perhaps feeling disgust towards Trump.

Sherrod Brown is not going to underrun Joe Biden lol. Why do you think Generic Democrats are polling better than the latter right now?

I doubt he underruns Joe Biden, but being tied with LaRose right now is not at all a good place to be; the most recent cycle in which undecideds failed to break against the Democrat in Ohio was, like, 2012, and even if you ignore that the general pattern is undecideds breaking towards the side they choose for President. Honestly it's hard to look at polling right now and think you'd rather be Brown than Tester. I don't think Brown has much of a shot unless Trump wins Ohio by less than around 6, whereas how Tester's race will end up going feels much more open-ended.

So instead of picking flawed Trumpist candidates, the NRSC will pick flawed consultant candidates promoted by McConnell and out-of-touch leadership who risk massively underperforming Trump against Democrats who know how to appeal to actual human beings.

The fact that these people think Dave McCormick is the 'ideal guy' for PA is very telling, and very sad.

Well Republicans don't have much of a chance to beat any incumbent in a state that Trump would win by less than 10.

...What?

Lets see:

Pennsylvania ? Nah
Wisconsin ? Nope
Arizona ? Don't think so
Nevada ? Hmmm

Ok I give you Nevada as the only swing state where it's realistic to expect a Democrat incumbent to need to make an effort.

Michigan doesn't have an incumbent, so it's not on the list.

McCormick and Hovde have basically both been recruited for their ability to spend lots of money; I don't think there's a reason to count either of them out. McCormick also has a somewhat interesting personal story (Gulf War veteran and so on), though I feel like I know much less about Hovde.

(Actually very underrated how an outright majority of the top Republican recruits this cycle are veterans: Sam Brown received a Purple Heart in Afghanistan, McCormick fought in Kuwait/Iraq, LaRose fought in Iraq, Sheehy also received a Purple Heart in Afghanistan though he's not visibly injured like Brown is, and Rogers...served from 1985-1989 although he didn't fight anywhere. It's not true for Justice, Lake, or Hovde, but war veterans are hugely overrepresented as GOP Senate candidates this cycle, which I'm guessing is what Daines hopes will end up being the narrative about them. Even among the safe-seat guys, Jim Banks served in Afghanistan, and even among the kind of hopeless attempts, Hung Cao served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia.)

Arizona does not have a Democratic incumbent, though it's actually kind of a unique race where there's a strong center-right third-party candidate obviously taking more from the Republicans than the Democrats.

Rogers is far weaker than Meijer or Craig, what the heck are NRSC doing? And no, McCormick is a disaster and while I think he is not weak enough to blow the race in a national republican wave year, I don't see him winning without that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This moves the senate in favor of democrats. Heck I’d say it makes it tilt democratic control

That's a bit too presumptuous, but given his endorsement teack record in down-ballot races, it is not myxh of an intimidating development for Democrats.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This moves the senate in favor of democrats. Heck I’d say it makes it tilt democratic control

That's a bit too presumptuous, but given his endorsement teack record in down-ballot races, it is not myxh of an intimidating development for Democrats.

His track record includes Laxalt, Oz, Walker, Masters, his candidates do poorly in generals

[SnowLabrador]

This moves the senate in favor of democrats. Heck I’d say it makes it tilt democratic control

That's a bit too presumptuous, but given his endorsement teack record in down-ballot races, it is not myxh of an intimidating development for Democrats.

His track record includes Laxalt, Oz, Walker, Masters, his candidates do poorly in generals

To be fair, NV, PA, GA, and AZ are swing states. OH and MT are red states.

[Pericles]

Surely this is a slight boost for Republicans because it means Trump is trying to restrain himself this time from endorsing loser candidates out of egotistical reasons when the rest of the party knows better?  While Laxalt and Walker were consensus picks, Oz and Masters were boosted by Trump and plenty of other losers at other levels have been elevated by Trump. Of course neither the McConnell wing or Trump are that smart on their own, but the room for error is reduced if they check each other's work.

[Flyersfan232]

congrats to democrats on holding and somehow expaining their majority inthe senate

[Flyersfan232]

I don’t know where this idea comes from that Trumpist candidates would help the GOP. Biden is only President right now because lifelong Republicans defected for him over COVID (look at how he won Wisconsin or Arizona and you’ll see my point). The Republican House majority ran through Biden districts and was based on reaching out to voters who backed Biden but wanted a change. The Republicans nominating a ton of Trumpist candidates is a high risk strategy because it ties their fate to an incredibly polarizing and hated figure who is likely to be convicted. If anything Republicans want to be winning those Biden Republican downballot to not just hold but expand their House majority and to take the Senate. One example is Ohio, even a weak candidate like JD Vance was able to mostly hold Trump’s Appalachian margins, suggesting those voters are likely gone for good, but a more mainstream choice like Dolan or LaRose could benefit from these ancestral Republicans in places like Columbus. If Brown underruns Biden in the big metros, he is basically done and Joe Biden is honestly a better fit for those areas than Sherrod Brown who has defined his whole political career against the types of people who live in these areas (case in point: there are Biden/Renacci areas in southern Delaware). If voters are upset with Democrats and Biden, but still uncomfortable with Trump, Republicans would be wise to leave the route to punish Democrats by running generic R candidates who would definitely be viable for moderate voters feeling antipathy towards Biden but perhaps feeling disgust towards Trump.

you implying this is easier with both trump and his cult attacking any in the party opposed to them as traitors and the dems doing thier best pushing the crazies