Will Russia win the war?

[SnowLabrador]

I think it's pretty clear that the US and several European countries have lost the will to support Ukraine. The counteroffensive has failed, and Ukraine has far fewer men to throw into the meat grinder than Russia. So yes, I do think Russia will win.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is like the 5th time you made a thread like this so why not just bump one of the old ones?

[Alben Barkley]

Good news, President Zelenskyy! An American bedwetter/troll called “SnowLabrador” who is literally wrong about everything all the time said you are going to lose. This means you are definitely going to win!

[CumbrianLefty]

Russia can only "win" if the likes of Trump and Orban get their way.

Putin is beyond any doubt praying for an Orange Man victory next year.

[It’s so Joever]

At this point it is a matter of which will last longer, the viability of the Russian economy/war machine or the will of the American people. Judging by current circumstances and current rhetoric from one side on the issue, I think it’s pretty clear the latter will collapse first, allowing Russia some sense of a partial victory.

[HillGoose]

No, the russkis will NEVER WIN!

Better DEAD than RED!

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

This is a SnowLabrador threaf

[OSR stands with Israel]

At this point it is a matter of which will last longer, the viability of the Russian economy/war machine or the will of the American people. Judging by current circumstances and current rhetoric from one side on the issue, I think it’s pretty clear the latter will collapse first, allowing Russia some sense of a partial victory.

This is always a super dumb strategy though because Russia probably can keep fighting on till the 2030s if they want. Keep in mind we stayed in Vietnam for 9 years after Gulf of Tonkin, 8 years after the Invasion of Iraq and its very possible we would have stayed there longer if we elected Hillary rather than Obama in 2008 despite the war being very unpopular.  Keep in mind that Russia unlike the US is not a democracy so a war being unpopular is not enough to force the Russians to leave and the most likely replacements to Putin are those who are even more pro war than him so that solution was never realistic. Also Ukraine is right across the Russian Border unlike Iraq and Vietnam for us so its much easier for Russia to keep such a war going than it was for us thanks due to pure logistics so this strategy was always dumb.

The best hope to force Russia completely out of Ukraine would have been:

- For Ukrainian offenses to keep working as losing battles is worse for morale than a stalemate is

- For Belarus's government to fall as doing so would require Russia to divert troops to Belarus which would make Ukrainian offenses easier to execute

- For Russia's economy to have collapsed when we implemented the sanctions that we did. Doing so would have given us leverage to offer Russia a deal of them withdrawing from Ukraine in exchange for us dropping the sanctions.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyway depends on what you define as "win". If its forcing Ukraine to agree to give up Donbass and Crimea, then yeah Russia probably will win but that's such a lol worthy definition of win. The reason for that is Russia when they invaded Ukraine clearly went in with intentions to regime change/conquer Ukraine and they will have clearly failed in that by any definition possible.

[oldtimer]

Anyway depends on what you define as "win". If its forcing Ukraine to agree to give up Donbass and Crimea, then yeah Russia probably will win but that's such a lol worthy definition of win. The reason for that is Russia when they invaded Ukraine clearly went in with intentions to regime change/conquer Ukraine and they will have clearly failed in that by any definition possible.

A good point.

If the conflict froze now it would be just another typical pyrric victory, in that the captured land is worth less than resources consumed to capture it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyway depends on what you define as "win". If its forcing Ukraine to agree to give up Donbass and Crimea, then yeah Russia probably will win but that's such a lol worthy definition of win. The reason for that is Russia when they invaded Ukraine clearly went in with intentions to regime change/conquer Ukraine and they will have clearly failed in that by any definition possible.

A good point.

If the conflict froze now it would be just another typical pyrric victory, in that the captured land is worth less than resources consumed to capture it.

Yup and really if that counts as a win, then Iraq was 100% an American Victory. We not only succeeded in regime changing the Iraqi government and in destroying the Iraqi insurgency, but the Iraqi government that we put in place is still standing do this day and in control of the entire nation.

[oldtimer]

Anyway depends on what you define as "win". If its forcing Ukraine to agree to give up Donbass and Crimea, then yeah Russia probably will win but that's such a lol worthy definition of win. The reason for that is Russia when they invaded Ukraine clearly went in with intentions to regime change/conquer Ukraine and they will have clearly failed in that by any definition possible.

A good point.

If the conflict froze now it would be just another typical pyrric victory, in that the captured land is worth less than resources consumed to capture it.

Yup and really if that counts as a win, then Iraq was 100% an American Victory. We not only succeeded in regime changing the Iraqi government and in destroying the Iraqi insurgency, but the Iraqi government that we put in place is still standing do this day and in control of the entire nation.

It cost America trillions of dollars, thousands of lives, a severe recession, and created a fear of War, to secure the oil contracts for American Oil companies that could have been obtained by just bribing Saddam.

America lost the Iraq War, it wasn't worth the price.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyway depends on what you define as "win". If its forcing Ukraine to agree to give up Donbass and Crimea, then yeah Russia probably will win but that's such a lol worthy definition of win. The reason for that is Russia when they invaded Ukraine clearly went in with intentions to regime change/conquer Ukraine and they will have clearly failed in that by any definition possible.

A good point.

If the conflict froze now it would be just another typical pyrric victory, in that the captured land is worth less than resources consumed to capture it.

Yup and really if that counts as a win, then Iraq was 100% an American Victory. We not only succeeded in regime changing the Iraqi government and in destroying the Iraqi insurgency, but the Iraqi government that we put in place is still standing do this day and in control of the entire nation.

It cost America trillions of dollars, thousands of lives, a severe recession, and created a fear of War, to secure the oil contracts for American Oil companies that could have been obtained by just bribing Saddam.

America lost the Iraq War, it wasn't worth the price.

I agree, but just saying Russia ending up with Donbass and Crimea would be a bigger failure for them then Iraq was for us.

[oldtimer]

Anyway depends on what you define as "win". If its forcing Ukraine to agree to give up Donbass and Crimea, then yeah Russia probably will win but that's such a lol worthy definition of win. The reason for that is Russia when they invaded Ukraine clearly went in with intentions to regime change/conquer Ukraine and they will have clearly failed in that by any definition possible.

A good point.

If the conflict froze now it would be just another typical pyrric victory, in that the captured land is worth less than resources consumed to capture it.

Yup and really if that counts as a win, then Iraq was 100% an American Victory. We not only succeeded in regime changing the Iraqi government and in destroying the Iraqi insurgency, but the Iraqi government that we put in place is still standing do this day and in control of the entire nation.

It cost America trillions of dollars, thousands of lives, a severe recession, and created a fear of War, to secure the oil contracts for American Oil companies that could have been obtained by just bribing Saddam.

America lost the Iraq War, it wasn't worth the price.

I agree, but just saying Russia ending up with Donbass and Crimea would be a bigger failure for them then Iraq was for us.

Oh Ukraine is worth far less than an Oil State, from that point Russia should have tried to annex Kazakhstan which is far easier.

One of the reason Greece is safe from a foreign invasion is that it's almost worthless, the only thing an invader would find is mountains of debt.

Of course there are madmen or idiots who invade poor countries just for the kicks, so you never know.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Those who voted yes: please explain why Russia would not only “win” in Ukraine (whatever that means) but also invade three NATO member states, triggering Article 5.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is like the 5th time you made a thread like this so why not just bump one of the old ones?

This doesn't actually work as a reply. The war has been going on for over 18 months. Months later, bumping polls that themselves are snapshots of how the forum felt in a given moment when they were made? Joking, right?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyway, voted No, given that Russia is likely to net gain from the war but not invade the Baltics. A soft yes followed by hard no=No vote.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Of course not.

[Woody]

Ukraine's manpower situation is so bad they have to resort mobilizing women and 40 year old men.

[Senator Incitatus]

They won the war the moment it started and they weren’t nuked. But I don’t think they’ll invade the Baltics.

[PSOL]

Even in the best case scenario of annexing Ukraine, that still won't cover their losses or insulate the Russian government from civil conflict by the end of the decade.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Russia has already lost the war. They have zero chance of achieving their prewar objective and whatever they might eventually get in a hypothetical negotiation will not be worth the loss of men and equipment they endured, let alone the economic losses and loss of international prestige. Of course, arguably Ukraine is heading toward a loss as well, but there is still a real possibility to turn it into a victory with enough Western support. Of course that would require one certain political party to stop acting like traitors...

[Woody]

Russia has already lost the war. They have zero chance of achieving their prewar objective and whatever they might eventually get in a hypothetical negotiation will not be worth the loss of men and equipment they endured, let alone the economic losses and loss of international prestige. Of course, arguably Ukraine is heading toward a loss as well, but there is still a real possibility to turn it into a victory with enough Western support. Of course that would require one certain political party to stop acting like traitors...

That video is almost one year old.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Russia has already lost the war. They have zero chance of achieving their prewar objective and whatever they might eventually get in a hypothetical negotiation will not be worth the loss of men and equipment they endured, let alone the economic losses and loss of international prestige. Of course, arguably Ukraine is heading toward a loss as well, but there is still a real possibility to turn it into a victory with enough Western support. Of course that would require one certain political party to stop acting like traitors...

That video is almost one year old.

Irrelevant. None of the relevant factors have changed, or are even capable of changing since they're things that have already happened.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is like the 5th time you made a thread like this so why not just bump one of the old ones?

This doesn't actually work as a reply. The war has been going on for over 18 months. Months later, bumping polls that themselves are snapshots of how the forum felt in a given moment when they were made? Joking, right?

It works when the OP is deliberately trolling case in point he made this thread literally the next day
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=575391.0