What does a Trump+3 map even look like in the electoral college?

[BG-NY]

Given that’s where the current polling average is, it’s kind of tough to get there unless you do one of four things:

(1) Collapse margins disproportionately in safe D states
(2) Increase margins significantly in safe R states
(3) Win toss up states by larger than expected margins
(4) Start winning states that are usually out of reach (Indiana 08)

1 doesn’t seem to be happening relative to the “popular” vote. Jury is out on 2.  3 is interesting here,  because it means states like PA, WI, GA could go from being within 1 point to 5-10 point wins. But 4 is what I need to wrap my head around.

It seems pretty clear Trump is pacing for an 08 Obama type victory, if we follow this course. But all of the states other than his 2016+NV map seem to require significant vote splitting. I don’t think there will be enough defection that NH/ME/NM/VA flip unless the bottom really comes out. Could see MN but don’t trust it.

What does your map look like?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

2016 + NV + MN + NH. NV, MN probably flip with Trump +3, and I think the current NH/ME polling is due to the fact that the Northeast economy is booming (while the West/Midwest are already in recession). I expect that to change as economic fundamentals catch up.

[Redban]

2016 + much greater margin in Texas + much lower deficits in Cali & NY? In 2016, Hillary's entire popular vote win was basically the margin in Cali

[Sir Mohamed]

I don't necessarily believe there are much or any flips beyond 2016 plus NV. More likely there's a relatively high share of 3rd party votes and Trump runs up the scores in states like TX, FL and OH while D-strongholds like CA, NY and IL are closer than usual.



✓ Former President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD): 313 EVs.; 48.9%
President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA): 225 EVs.; 45.9%

[Person Man]

I don't necessarily believe there are much or any flips beyond 2016 plus NV. More likely there's a relatively high share of 3rd party votes and Trump runs up the scores in states like TX, FL and OH while D-strongholds like CA, NY and IL are closer than usual.



✓ Former President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD): 313 EVs.; 48.9%
President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA): 225 EVs.; 45.9%

In a way, its basically 2004 all over again. Bush won Texas by 20 and Florida by 5. Kerry only won Illinois and California by 10 and only managed like 15 in New York.

On the whole, this is probably the best prediction if the election were held today, even down to picking Kristi Noem because she is basically Trump himself as a youngish woman.

2024 will, in this scenario, basically be 2004 if 1) COVID never happened and 2) Trump, as President, was treated by the media the way he is now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think NH and possibly Maine also flip at this point along with Minnesota.

[President Johnson]

For fun, I actually went through this with 2020 numbers and would say it's almost impossible unless the bottom totally falls out for Democrats. Or at least it would require significant changes in turnout in various states (ergo low turnout in Democratic strongholds and equal/increased turnout in Republican strongholds).

I used 2020 totals in this Excel table and just changed the percentages. This is an extremely bad scenario for the Democrats in state after state and Biden just loses the popular vote by little more than one point. The Electoral College is 313-225 as in Mohamed's map:



Or did I get something wrong? Even if you give Minnoesta and New Hampshire to Trump by one or two points, it doesn't change much in the totals. Let alone if Biden were to do one or two points better in New York and California, which is easily possible even in a worst case scenario.

[Vosem]

Both crosstabs and 2022 results suggest a big part of the story is your option (1): collapse margins in Safe D states. At the moment the conventional wisdom seems to be that New York and the Pacific coast states will all trend significantly Republican, but that statewide victories will remain outside of Republicans' reach.

[Redban]

For fun, I actually went through this with 2020 numbers and would say it's almost impossible unless the bottom totally falls out for Democrats. Or at least it would require significant changes in turnout in various states (ergo low turnout in Democratic strongholds and equal/increased turnout in Republican strongholds).

 Cali has to be something closer to 15%, most likely, for Trump +3 nationally. And Texas has to be closer to 58-38 too. That would boost Trump about 49% vs Biden's 46.7% or so in that chart. Then a add few percentage points for Trump in NJ, CT, OR, WA, MA should get close to 3% lead.  But of course, the question arises as to the viability of Californa as D+15 and Texas R+20  

In the other thread, people were arguing that Texas could swing left or remain stagnant while the popular vote shifts 3-4% in favor of Trump. That can't happen mathematically (unless Trump actually wins California outright or something)

The other possibility is RFK Jr. and others eat so many votes to give us a quirky result, such as Trump 44%, Biden 41%, RFK Jr 10, Other 5%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win 319 EC votes and we are gonna net 3 seats in S even Trump said Hawley, Fischer and Cruz are vulnerable

Biden is ahead in some polls Cgynal, Marist not all polls have Biden losing and Biden is gonna win CO, ME 2, MN and WI , NV, NM

Rs overperform in ME 2 whenever Collins in 20 is on the ballot, King is on the ballot

LOL WE HAVEN'T VOTED YET

Users think polls are the end all be all it's computer voting we vote on paper ballots

Of course Rs believe that they don't win very often I used to think polls but if we had Zogby online polls Biden would be ahead in TX,O, OH, MT NEB S races and NC G and Prez

Which are user based not R hack baded

[cherry mandarin]

Both crosstabs and 2022 results suggest a big part of the story is your option (1): collapse margins in Safe D states. At the moment the conventional wisdom seems to be that New York and the Pacific coast states will all trend significantly Republican, but that statewide victories will remain outside of Republicans' reach.

Agreed—it'll mostly be Option #1, with a great degree of help from #2 and #4 as a potential wild card (albeit quite difficult to foresee at this stage). The main battlegrounds have, on average, trended about 3 or 4 points to the left since 2020 if recent polling is to be believed, practically erasing the supposed R EC edge. On the other hand, a bunch of large, urban, and highly populated states (CA, NY, IL, TX, FL) have seen sizable rightward trends in each case. That'll make the EC very competitive, even in a scenario where Trump's winning the NPV by roughly a couple of points.

if Biden were to do one or two points better in New York and California, which is easily possible—even in a worst-case scenario.

WHAT?

We have posters here who are predicting Hochul-like margins for Biden in NY, and the CA margin getting more than halved (from 2020, mind you). How could Biden possibly improve in either of those states, especially in his worst-case scenario?

Texas has to be closer to 58-38 too.

I can definitely envision a world where Trump runs up the score in TX and eventually ends up carrying it by a double-digit margin, but 20 points is simply implausible. In your post, you listed a half-dozen safe blue bastions—and sure, a disproportionate chunk of Trump's NPV lead would be coming from those. You and Johnson are both forgetting, however, that the bulk of it will actually come from the (admittedly much smaller) R swings in the other forty-odd states. Let's say perhaps a quarter of those are actually slight D swings, while another quarter consists of states with negligible swings. That still leaves us with approximately twenty states where Trump will build on his 2020 performance. Put together, that yields a substantially greater return than any of CA, TX, or NY can do on their own.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

For fun, I actually went through this with 2020 numbers and would say it's almost impossible unless the bottom totally falls out for Democrats. Or at least it would require significant changes in turnout in various states (ergo low turnout in Democratic strongholds and equal/increased turnout in Republican strongholds).

 Cali has to be something closer to 15%, most likely, for Trump +3 nationally. And Texas has to be closer to 58-38 too. That would boost Trump about 49% vs Biden's 46.7% or so in that chart. Then a add few percentage points for Trump in NJ, CT, OR, WA, MA should get close to 3% lead.  But of course, the question arises as to the viability of Californa as D+15 and Texas R+20  

In the other thread, people were arguing that Texas could swing left or remain stagnant while the popular vote shifts 3-4% in favor of Trump. That can't happen mathematically (unless Trump actually wins California outright or something)

The other possibility is RFK Jr. and others eat so many votes to give us a quirky result, such as Trump 44%, Biden 41%, RFK Jr 10, Other 5%

There is no way California will be Biden+15. At best for Trump it will be in the 22-25 range, although that is still a big improvement from 2020.

[DS0816]

Given that’s where the current polling average is, it’s kind of tough to get there unless you do one of four things:

…

What does your map look like?

Electoral pattern nowadays, for a winning Democrat, is U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin and +21 or +22 to determine number of carried states; for a winning Republican, who does carry the U.S. Popular Vote, +28. (If not…up to +32.)

This is based on making sure the U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin is, as is most cases, on the positive side. 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump carried 30 states. Their U.S. Popular Vote, adjusted to the positive side, would have been +2. Bush, with re-election in 2004, won by +2.46 and carried 31 states.

With the post-1980s Democrats, a 1992 Bill Clinton—a margin of +5.56 and 32 carried states—is the only exception from pattern. The party, when they won, has been on this pattern since 1960. A 1960 John Kennedy won by +0.16 with 22 states. A 1964 Lyndon Johnson won by +22.58 with 44 states. A 1976 Jimmy Carter won by +2.06 with 23 states. A 1996 Bill Clinton won by +8.52 with 31 states. A 2008 Barack Obama won by +7.26 with 28 states. A 2012 Obama won by +3.86 with 26 states. And a 2020 Joe Biden won by +4.45 with 25 states.

I figure if Election 2024 were to end up a Democratic hold, the 2020 map would be intact with at least one pickup. Most probable would be North Carolina. So, this would be done with a U.S. Popular Vote of +5 with 26 carried states.

To consider:
• A Democrat winning nationally by +5 would carry 26 or 27 states.
• A Republican winning nationally by +5 would carry 33 states.

The above map is based on a Republican winning the presidency and, with it, the U.S. Popular Vote. It is specifically a percentage-points margin of +3. Result would yield 31 carried states.

(Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are party pickups.)

[DS0816]

For fun, I actually went through this with 2020 numbers and would say it's almost impossible unless the bottom totally falls out for Democrats. Or at least it would require significant changes in turnout in various states (ergo low turnout in Democratic strongholds and equal/increased turnout in Republican strongholds).

 Cali has to be something closer to 15%, most likely, for Trump +3 nationally. And Texas has to be closer to 58-38 too. That would boost Trump about 49% vs Biden's 46.7% or so in that chart. Then a add few percentage points for Trump in NJ, CT, OR, WA, MA should get close to 3% lead.  But of course, the question arises as to the viability of Californa as D+15 and Texas R+20  

In the other thread, people were arguing that Texas could swing left or remain stagnant while the popular vote shifts 3-4% in favor of Trump. That can't happen mathematically (unless Trump actually wins California outright or something)

The other possibility is RFK Jr. and others eat so many votes to give us a quirky result, such as Trump 44%, Biden 41%, RFK Jr 10, Other 5%

There is no way California will be [reduced down to] Biden+15. At best for Trump it will be in the 22-25 range, although that is still a big improvement from 2020.

In 2020, there were approximately 158 million total votes cast, nationwide, for U.S. President. Just over 17.5 million came from California. Every, rough estimate, +175k raw votes in margin was carriage of the state by an additional +1 percentage point. Joe Biden carried California, in 2020, by +5.1 million in raw votes and +29.16 percentage points.

To have a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. Popular Vote, the party will have to erase their 2020 loss of –7.0 million. So, to do this and then win the U.S. Popular Vote, in 2024, by the example of +3 would have to include dramatic shifts from states carried by the 2020 Democrats by +1 and more million raw votes.

Let’s say Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup and a margin of +3. Let’s say 160 million total votes will get cast for U.S. President. This would be U.S. Popular Vote raw-vote margin of +4.8 million. Following Election 2020, this would be a Republican shift of +11.8 million votes.

I could picture California, in this case, dropping from +5.1 million down to the lower +3 million range. Perhaps even down into +2 million. Using every +175k as a full percentage point in margin … +15 would equal 2,625,000 raw-vote margin. A 2020-to-2024 shift, in this state, of nearly +2.5 million toward the Republicans.

[patzer]

The swing states probably don't move a lot out of swing state range- no matter what happens I wouldn't really imagine any of the "core" swing states (GA, AZ, MI, PA, NC, NV, WI) having a margin over 5%. Florida could get up to Trump+10 or so in theory. NY and NJ could have their margins slashed to high single digits with VA down to Biden+3 or something. I think that's how you do it.

[pbrower2a]

Given that’s where the current polling average is, it’s kind of tough to get there unless you do one of four things:

…

What does your map look like?

Electoral pattern nowadays, for a winning Democrat, is U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin and +21 or +22 to determine number of carried states; for a winning Republican, who does carry the U.S. Popular Vote, +28. (If not…up to +32.)

This is based on making sure the U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin is, as is most cases, on the positive side. 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump carried 30 states. Their U.S. Popular Vote, adjusted to the positive side, would have been +2. Bush, with re-election in 2004, won by +2.46 and carried 31 states.

With the post-1980s Democrats, a 1992 Bill Clinton—a margin of +5.56 and 32 carried states—is the only exception from pattern. The party, when they won, has been on this pattern since 1960. A 1960 John Kennedy won by +0.16 with 22 states. A 1964 Lyndon Johnson won by +22.58 with 44 states. A 1976 Jimmy Carter won by +2.06 with 23 states. A 1996 Bill Clinton won by +8.52 with 31 states. A 2008 Barack Obama won by +7.26 with 28 states. A 2012 Obama won by +3.86 with 26 states. And a 2020 Joe Biden won by +4.45 with 25 states.

I figure if Election 2024 were to end up a Democratic hold, the 2020 map would be intact with at least one pickup. Most probable would be North Carolina. So, this would be done with a U.S. Popular Vote of +5 with 26 carried states.

To consider:
• A Democrat winning nationally by +5 would carry 26 or 27 states.
• A Republican winning nationally by +5 would carry 33 states.

The above map is based on a Republican winning the presidency and, with it, the U.S. Popular Vote. It is specifically a percentage-points margin of +3. Result would yield 31 carried states.

(Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are party pickups.)

I concur. It's Trump 2016 + Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Given that’s where the current polling average is, it’s kind of tough to get there unless you do one of four things:

…

What does your map look like?

Electoral pattern nowadays, for a winning Democrat, is U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin and +21 or +22 to determine number of carried states; for a winning Republican, who does carry the U.S. Popular Vote, +28. (If not…up to +32.)

This is based on making sure the U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin is, as is most cases, on the positive side. 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump carried 30 states. Their U.S. Popular Vote, adjusted to the positive side, would have been +2. Bush, with re-election in 2004, won by +2.46 and carried 31 states.

With the post-1980s Democrats, a 1992 Bill Clinton—a margin of +5.56 and 32 carried states—is the only exception from pattern. The party, when they won, has been on this pattern since 1960. A 1960 John Kennedy won by +0.16 with 22 states. A 1964 Lyndon Johnson won by +22.58 with 44 states. A 1976 Jimmy Carter won by +2.06 with 23 states. A 1996 Bill Clinton won by +8.52 with 31 states. A 2008 Barack Obama won by +7.26 with 28 states. A 2012 Obama won by +3.86 with 26 states. And a 2020 Joe Biden won by +4.45 with 25 states.

I figure if Election 2024 were to end up a Democratic hold, the 2020 map would be intact with at least one pickup. Most probable would be North Carolina. So, this would be done with a U.S. Popular Vote of +5 with 26 carried states.

To consider:
• A Democrat winning nationally by +5 would carry 26 or 27 states.
• A Republican winning nationally by +5 would carry 33 states.

The above map is based on a Republican winning the presidency and, with it, the U.S. Popular Vote. It is specifically a percentage-points margin of +3. Result would yield 31 carried states.

(Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are party pickups.)

I concur. It's Trump 2016 + Nevada.

Users don't understand the 303 map and D Sen inc running in swing states, and neither does Harris X and McLaughlin, there is no way Trump is gonna win by 8 pts and RFK takes 20, RFK is polling like Jorgensen

[DS0816]

Given that’s where the current polling average is, it’s kind of tough to get there unless you do one of four things:

…

What does your map look like?

Electoral pattern nowadays, for a winning Democrat, is U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin and +21 or +22 to determine number of carried states; for a winning Republican, who does carry the U.S. Popular Vote, +28. (If not…up to +32.)

This is based on making sure the U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin is, as is most cases, on the positive side. 2000 and 2016 Republican pickup winners George W. Bush and Donald Trump carried 30 states. Their U.S. Popular Vote, adjusted to the positive side, would have been +2. Bush, with re-election in 2004, won by +2.46 and carried 31 states.

With the post-1980s Democrats, a 1992 Bill Clinton—a margin of +5.56 and 32 carried states—is the only exception from pattern. The party, when they won, has been on this pattern since 1960. A 1960 John Kennedy won by +0.16 with 22 states. A 1964 Lyndon Johnson won by +22.58 with 44 states. A 1976 Jimmy Carter won by +2.06 with 23 states. A 1996 Bill Clinton won by +8.52 with 31 states. A 2008 Barack Obama won by +7.26 with 28 states. A 2012 Obama won by +3.86 with 26 states. And a 2020 Joe Biden won by +4.45 with 25 states.

I figure if Election 2024 were to end up a Democratic hold, the 2020 map would be intact with at least one pickup. Most probable would be North Carolina. So, this would be done with a U.S. Popular Vote of +5 with 26 carried states.

To consider:
• A Democrat winning nationally by +5 would carry 26 or 27 states.
• A Republican winning nationally by +5 would carry 33 states.

The above map is based on a Republican winning the presidency and, with it, the U.S. Popular Vote. It is specifically a percentage-points margin of +3. Result would yield 31 carried states.

(Solid shades are party holds. Light shades are party pickups.)

I concur. It's Trump 2016 + Nevada.

The difference—2016 vs. 2024—would be not with having held Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District while having countered that loss with a pickup of Nevada.

It would be re-election, but not to a second consecutive term, for a U.S. president whose electoral-vote score increases. That is historically the typical pattern.

This could also speak to a thread I created, wrote, and posted, in 2021, addressing states (and congressional districts) which realigned.

Realigning States:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566

[Mr. Smith]

Could very well be 2020 again, minus AZ/GA, which is still enough to deny Trump victory.

[DS0816]

The swing states probably don't move a lot out of swing state range- no matter what happens I wouldn't really imagine any of the "core" swing states (GA, AZ, MI, PA, NC, NV, WI) having a margin over 5%. Florida could get up to Trump+10 or so in theory. NY and NJ could have their margins slashed to high single digits with VA down to Biden+3 or something. I think that's how you do it.

It is.

One can have fun with a long math assignment.

R+3 percentage points, and with 160 million votes cast nationwide, would be a raw-vote margin of +4.8 million. Following the 2020 outcome of D+7.0 million, this would be a national shift of +11.8 million in the direction of the 2024 Republicans.

Raw-Vote for 2020 Democrats (source is Wikipedia) :
• California +5,104,121
• New York: +1,992,889
• Massachusetts: +1,215,000
• Illinois: +1,025,024
• Maryland: +1,008,609

Those five states combined for a raw-vote margin of +10,345,643.

Joe Biden’s 2020 U.S. Popular Vote raw-vote margin: +7,059,526.

A 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. Popular Vote, along with U.S. President, will probably cut them down at least 60 percent.

This is without going over other states, and then examining 2020 Republican states like Florida and Ohio, and solidifying their 2024 Republican raw-vote margins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A Trump 3 map is in the MOE and can be overcome come Eday with higher D turnout

[cherry mandarin]

Those five states combined for a raw-vote margin of +10,345,643. A 2024 Republican pickup of the popular vote, along with the presidency, will probably cut those margins down by at least 60 percent.

I don't think it's especially practical to expect a healthy majority of Trump's margin gain to come from just 5 states alone, unless you have reason to believe those particular areas will somehow produce monster R swings while other places remain the same or even shift slightly to the left.

[Minnesota Mike]

Could very well be 2020 again, minus AZ/GA, which is still enough to deny Trump victory.

Maybe not at Trump+3 but I do think the Republican EC advantage will shrink significantly or even disappear. If there is a swing it will not be uniform.

[DS0816]

Those five states combined for a raw-vote margin of +10,345,643. A 2024 Republican pickup of the popular vote, along with the presidency, will probably cut those margins down by at least 60 percent.

I don't think it's especially practical to expect a healthy majority of Trump's margin gain to come from just 5 states alone, unless you have reason to believe those particular areas will somehow produce monster R swings while other places remain the same or even shift slightly to the left.

Not just those five states alone. But they would dramatically reduce their 2020-to-2024 Democratic Party raw-vote margins.

This would be necessary to come up with a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. Popular Vote at, say, +4.8 million (percentage-points margin of +3) which would be made possible by a 2020-to-2024 national shift, toward the Republicans, by +11.8 million. (A 2008 Democratic presidential pickup winner Barack Obama nationally shifted, from 2004 to 2008, nearly +13 million.)

The 2020 raw-vote, Democratic Party margins combined in California and New York, at +7,097,010, exceeded the party’s raw-vote margin in the U.S. Popular Vote, at +7,059,526, by +37,484. So, these raw-vote margins of over +1 million would truly dramatically decrease in order to deliver the 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. Popular Vote.

Again … not just those states alone. But they have to be acknowledged.

[oldtimer]

Those five states combined for a raw-vote margin of +10,345,643. A 2024 Republican pickup of the popular vote, along with the presidency, will probably cut those margins down by at least 60 percent.

I don't think it's especially practical to expect a healthy majority of Trump's margin gain to come from just 5 states alone, unless you have reason to believe those particular areas will somehow produce monster R swings while other places remain the same or even shift slightly to the left.

I think the aim of the excersice is to find a way for Trump to win the P.V. by 3 but still lose the E.C.