Which swing-state Democratic Senator will lose more crossover appeal in 2024?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

For the record I do believe that both are favored to win, even if Trump carries both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But a 2018-level performance from either of them seems improbable in this day and age.

[Fancyarcher]

Baldwin, but I don't think that either are going to outrun Biden as much people think they are, or at least I've seen zero evidence of that type of bigger state ticket splitting returning. 2018 was a very blue midterm for example, 2024 is a more neutral presidential race, which is a big difference alone.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Tammy Baldwin by far. I think McCormick is an awful opponent and Casey's margin won't fall too far from 2018.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Casey because his brand is easier to tear apart than Baldwin

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Will they lose crossover appeal? If Trump wins by 4, House Rs win by 2, and Baldwin/Casey wins by 4, that is a similar ticket splitting to 2018.

[wbrocks67]

Casey because his brand is easier to tear apart than Baldwin

It's really not though. For either of them.

[Sir Mohamed]

Compared to 2018? Baldwin very easily. I expect her to win by a Evers 2022 margin.

[President Johnson]

Definitely Baldwin, because Casey seems to be a bigger household name and is running in a somewhat more Democratic state. As of today, I expect him to win with something like 53-46%, while Baldwin is closer to 51-47% or even 50-48%.

[Tekken_Guy]

Casey will likely overperform Biden but if Trump ends up winning it’s very possible he ends up winning by less than Fetterman did.

Baldwin is definitely more vulnerable and I see her underperforming Evers 2022 potentially, maybe even 2018.

[Xing]

I actually think it'll be pretty much even, since I'm expecting about a 6-7 point drop-off for each of them from 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

None

[Schiff for Senate]

Definitely Casey, but only because he won significantly more crossover support than Baldwin did back in 2018. Unless I'm misunderstanding/misinterpreting what the OP meant by "losing crossover appeal..." wouldn't it just be who will lose more Baldwin/Casey-Trump voters in 2024? In that case, Casey, because he has so many more such voters to hold on to.

That said I expect Casey to maintain more overall crossover appeal than Baldwin and for him to win by a bigger margin than her, so if that's what the intended question was, then Baldwin's doing worse than Casey.

[SnowLabrador]

Baldwin. Casey wins by a few points, Baldwin narrowly loses.

[MT Treasurer]

Casey's household name is asset and liability alike. He’s been coasting on it for several cycles and has had enormous luck that he’s only been up in extremely favorable cycles against underfunded opponents who were written off as dead before the cycle even began — no one with $$$ has ever turned that name against him in a difficult year where PA was a true, (possibly) R-leaning battleground state.

He’s a front line target this cycle in a state where Ds are extremely vulnerable and the D coalition is less robust than in WI.

The one thing that gives me pause is McCormick being a rather poor fit for the state (although obviously not Oz-tier bad), but it’s not like Eric Hovde is a particularly impressive recruit either.

No reason for this poll to be as lopsided as it is rn, but much of this forum is seriously overconfident about PA and unnecessarily bearish on WI.