Could Michael Steele have won?

[Kevin]

Going on with this series could Republican Lt Governor of Maryland Michael Steele scored an upset against Ben Cardin. It looked liked it could have done just that towards the end of his campagain, However the 06 tide was against him too much. 

[TheresNoMoney]

Steele ran a pretty good campaign and still lost by 10%.

No, he could not have won.

[Kevin]

Steele ran a pretty good campaign and still lost by 10%.

No, he could not have won.

However this was a a pretty sh*tty year for the GOP, Had Foley not happened I think the Steele may have pulled an upset.

[Verily]

Steele ran a pretty good campaign and still lost by 10%.

No, he could not have won.

However this was a a pretty sh*tty year for the GOP, Had Foley not happened I think the Steele may have pulled an upset.

Won? No. Gotten within a couple of points? Possibly. Gotten 47%? Certainly.

[Conan]

No.

[Stranger in a strange land]

In a different year in a different state yes. In Maryland in 2006, no. The fact that he supported the Iraq War unequivocally doomed his campaign from the start.

[socaldem]

In a different year in a different state yes. In Maryland in 2006, no. The fact that he supported the Iraq War unequivocally doomed his campaign from the start.

If he faced a different opponent.  Ben Cardin isn't very exciting but he's not going to offend anyone either. 

I think Steele could have beaten Mfume in a different year and with a slightly better campaign. 

If he had faced a hapless Democrat like KKT, he may have even won in '06.

[Smash255]

No.  Would have gotten closer against Mfume, but he is too conservative to win Maryland.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Given the year and the state, Michael Steele ran the best campaign of any Republican Senate candidate in Maryland of recent history.  It was certainly the closest race for the Senate the state has seen for a while.  Thus he was an impressive candidate and it signals, I think, that he could have a future in statewide politics. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Steele ran a pretty good campaign and still lost by 10%.

No, he could not have won.

However this was a a pretty sh*tty year for the GOP, Had Foley not happened I think the Steele may have pulled an upset.

Foley didn't cost Steele 5 points.

[Kevin]

Steele ran a pretty good campaign and still lost by 10%.

No, he could not have won.

However this was a a pretty sh*tty year for the GOP, Had Foley not happened I think the Steele may have pulled an upset.

Foley didn't cost Steele 5 points.

It didn't help the atomosphere for the Republicans nationally and it didn't help Steele ether.

[Aizen]

Steele ran a pretty good campaign and still lost by 10%.

No, he could not have won.

However this was a a pretty sh*tty year for the GOP, Had Foley not happened I think the Steele may have pulled an upset.

Foley didn't cost Steele 5 points.

It didn't help the atomosphere for the Republicans nationally and it didn't help Steele ether.

But it wasn't nearly as big of a deal as you're making it out to be.

[DownWithTheLeft]

On September 11th (one day before the primary) I thought the final result would be:

MARYLAND SENATE:
Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) 50%
Fmr. NAACP Chair Kwesi Mfume (D) 49%

And I think that would have been the result if Mfume could have pulled it off.  That's what sucked, the only three guys I wanted to win in close primaries (Lieberman, Mfume, Laffey) all lost

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

According to exit polls, Steele actually did improve among blacks over Bush by quite a much, but Cardin made up most of this by improving among whites over Kerry. If Cardin had done as well among whites as Kerry did, he would've won a close one (like 2-3 points). So really, no, he could've come close but not have won.

[SPC]

Possibly. If I recall, toward the end of the campaign, Webb had a wider lead than Cardin did.

[Kevin]

I was actually a Michael Steele Supporter, untill...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=45182.0


I live in the hood, and it is fun, but I do not want the hood in the Senate! No need for that!

Michael Steele to grow up in a family in the lower income bracket, Quite the oppisite to what some posters on here said, Also he would have made one of the best Senators in Washington in a long time, Alot better then the crusty old hack that is currently Maryland's Jr Senator.       

[Smash255]

I was actually a Michael Steele Supporter, untill...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=45182.0


I live in the hood, and it is fun, but I do not want the hood in the Senate! No need for that!

Michael Steele to grow up in a family in the lower income bracket, Quite the oppisite to what some posters on here said, Also he would have made one of the best Senators in Washington in a long time, Alot better then the crusty old hack that is currently Maryland's Jr Senator.       

The person whose views better represent the state is the one who won.

[Verily]

According to exit polls, Steele actually did improve among blacks over Bush by quite a much, but Cardin made up most of this by improving among whites over Kerry. If Cardin had done as well among whites as Kerry did, he would've won a close one (like 2-3 points). So really, no, he could've come close but not have won.

Moreover, Mfume would have mitigated the flow of black voters to Steele, essentially cancelling out any advantage Steele would have had amongst whites.

[Adlai Stevenson]

According to exit polls, Steele actually did improve among blacks over Bush by quite a much, but Cardin made up most of this by improving among whites over Kerry. If Cardin had done as well among whites as Kerry did, he would've won a close one (like 2-3 points). So really, no, he could've come close but not have won.

Moreover, Mfume would have mitigated the flow of black voters to Steele, essentially cancelling out any advantage Steele would have had amongst whites.

I thought that as well, although Steele may have run better amongst white voters if Mfume was the Democratic nominee.  I wish Mfume had won the Primary - I'm convinced he could have won the general election and it would have been an important symbol of the Democratic Party, particularly in Maryland where I gather African Americans think they are just used for votes but under-represented.  Cardin is OK - but is another white, 60-year-old former Congressman needed?  Mfume would have been different, and I think better. 

[Rococo4]

IF he had been against Mfume, and IF it had been 2002 or 2004, then it would have been a close race, with Steele getting at least 47 or 48.  In 2006 - no.  He ran a great campaign and lost handily to a terrible candidate in Ben Cardin.

[Verily]

According to exit polls, Steele actually did improve among blacks over Bush by quite a much, but Cardin made up most of this by improving among whites over Kerry. If Cardin had done as well among whites as Kerry did, he would've won a close one (like 2-3 points). So really, no, he could've come close but not have won.

Moreover, Mfume would have mitigated the flow of black voters to Steele, essentially cancelling out any advantage Steele would have had amongst whites.

I thought that as well, although Steele may have run better amongst white voters if Mfume was the Democratic nominee.  I wish Mfume had won the Primary - I'm convinced he could have won the general election and it would have been an important symbol of the Democratic Party, particularly in Maryland where I gather African Americans think they are just used for votes but under-represented.  Cardin is OK - but is another white, 60-year-old former Congressman needed?  Mfume would have been different, and I think better. 

Maybe as a symbol, but as a politician the black population of Maryland could do a lot better than Mfume.

[merseysider]

I think in a decent Republican year Steele could have won the Governorship, but not a US Senate seat.

National party loyalties count for a lot more in Senate races, and MD is a blue state.

[Stranger in a strange land]

IF he had been against Mfume, and IF it had been 2002 or 2004, then it would have been a close race, with Steele getting at least 47 or 48.  In 2006 - no.  He ran a great campaign and lost handily to a terrible candidate in Ben Cardin.

er cardin wasn't as terrible as, say, Conrad Burns, Katherine Harris, George Allen, or that guy who ran against Hillary this time around (I forget his name). Steele ran probably the best campaign he could have under the circumstances, and Cardin didn't commit any major gaffes, so it's really impossible for me to see how steele could have won.

[Kevin]

IF he had been against Mfume, and IF it had been 2002 or 2004, then it would have been a close race, with Steele getting at least 47 or 48.  In 2006 - no.  He ran a great campaign and lost handily to a terrible candidate in Ben Cardin.

er cardin wasn't as terrible as, say, Conrad Burns, Katherine Harris, George Allen, or that guy who ran against Hillary this time around (I forget his name). Steele ran probably the best campaign he could have under the circumstances, and Cardin didn't commit any major gaffes, so it's really impossible for me to see how steele could have won.

Cardin was a piss poor canidate who just go lucky, For example he couldn't really givew answers to questions and his respose was that Steele love George W. Bush, Which he said constently.

[Verily]

IF he had been against Mfume, and IF it had been 2002 or 2004, then it would have been a close race, with Steele getting at least 47 or 48.  In 2006 - no.  He ran a great campaign and lost handily to a terrible candidate in Ben Cardin.

er cardin wasn't as terrible as, say, Conrad Burns, Katherine Harris, George Allen, or that guy who ran against Hillary this time around (I forget his name). Steele ran probably the best campaign he could have under the circumstances, and Cardin didn't commit any major gaffes, so it's really impossible for me to see how steele could have won.

Cardin was a piss poor canidate who just go lucky, For example he couldn't really givew answers to questions and his respose was that Steele love George W. Bush, Which he said constently.

Well, it was true, and it's certainly not a good thing to agree with Bush's policies (not to Maryland voters).