Bush third term vs Kerry 2008

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Would Bush have gotten the same map as 2004 because he was the incumbent and Kerry was widely hated?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I assume this is sarcasm based on users predictions of a certain Biden 2024 victory. But I'll give a serious answer anyway.

Kerry was not widely hated, he was thought of as a stiff intellectual and wishy washy. Bush was at around 50% approval in 2004, at around 25% in late 2008. Granted his approvals would have been higher if he had been in campaign mode, but not by much.

As for the map being the same, Bush loses IA/NM/OH/NV/CO if the election is held in 2005, let alone 2008. In late 2008, after two and a half years of dismal approvals and a financial collapse, Bush also loses VA/FL/AZ. Kerry also probably wins MO (Obama lost due to cultural disconnect) and AR would be razor thin. However, Kerry almost certainly doesn't flip IN, and probably doesn't flip NC (he wouldn't have gotten Obama's turnout with blacks and younger voters).

[wnwnwn]

Kerry wins Missouri but loses Indiana and North Carolina.