Is TX-28 Safe Dem in 2024?

[Minnesota Mike]

Last cycle TX-28 was one of the most watched races both in the primary and the GE, this time it looks to be shaping up as a cakewalk for Henry Cuellar.

After having narrowly survived primary challenges from the left the last two primary cycles Cuellar is unopposed this time for the Dem nomination. For the general there are 3 (maybe 4 depending where you look) Republicans running and all appear to be D listers. One is a former Cuellar staffer who switched parties, one ran in TX-09 last cycle, and one I think (barely anything on google) is a 20 something with no record.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe not safe D, but Cuellar clearly remains favored. He knows how to win here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes

[Schiff for Senate]

I'll put this at Likely D, closer to Lean than Safe, for now. If anyone can win this seat Cuellar can; ballot-splitting for popular conservadem incumbents is real in quite places like the RGV. And as 2022 showed, the district is still sufficiently Laredo-centric (as opposed to San Antonio, which is more politically polarized) for Cuellar to significantly outperform.

[Roll Roons]

I'll say Likely D, but much closer to Safe than Lean. It would take at least the Republican version of 2008 to dislodge him.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yes. Gonzales is more vulnerable

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I guess Yes.

[MT Treasurer]

No. Cuellar is very much favored (Likely D), but you can’t rule out another, possibly even more severe 2020-style D collapse in that region — I don’t think that would require a 2008-style national environment, actually. The lesson to be learned from 2022 was not "trends here have stalled" but "midterms & off-years have their own dynamics, especially in the post-Trump era."

Recency bias is one hell of a trap, as Republicans (emboldened by their 2020 overperformance & VA/NJ 2021 & quick to forget about the 2021 GA runoffs, CA recall, etc.) had to learn the hard way in 2022. Democrats shouldn’t make the same mistake and assume 2024 will play out like 2022 everywhere.

Cuellar's biggest advantage is the underwhelming GOP field, but if things get really bad for Biden, he could still lose in an upset. It would be one of the last seats to fall, though.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

No it's not safe, but it's unlikely to flip.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Yes, and so is TX-34.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/LoneStarLeft/status/1735697890721386734?t=lMsIx_T-cfVxCiZ7EX...

Further evidence that the GOP candidates are subpar here, and that overall the party considers this a distant target at best.

[ProgressiveModerate]

No. Cuellar is very much favored (Likely D), but you can’t rule out another, possibly even more severe 2020-style D collapse in that region — I don’t think that would require a 2008-style national environment, actually. The lesson to be learned from 2022 was not "trends here have stalled" but "midterms & off-years have their own dynamics, especially in the post-Trump era."

Recency bias is one hell of a trap, as Republicans (emboldened by their 2020 overperformance & VA/NJ 2021 & quick to forget about the 2021 GA runoffs, CA recall, etc.) had to learn the hard way in 2022. Democrats shouldn’t make the same mistake and assume 2024 will play out like 2022 everywhere.

Cuellar's biggest advantage is the underwhelming GOP field, but if things get really bad for Biden, he could still lose in an upset. It would be one of the last seats to fall, though.

Ye, I'll pretty much second this.

The only thing I will say though is that Cueller's seat is basically half based in greater San Antonio that has different dynamics than RGV. This was the reason in 2020, TX-28 swung slightly less to the right compared to TX-15 and TX-34. I could see a scenario where RGV swings hard right again, but crossover support and maintaining margins in San Antonio is able to save Cueller.