Miami-Dade's political importance is massively overrated

[ProgressiveModerate]

Way too much of the political analysis of Florida focusses on Miami-Dade County.

Miami-Dade County is almost exactly 1/8th of the state in terms of population, so certainly not irrelevant, but highly overrated. To put things in perspective, a 16% point rightwards shift in the County would only be expected to shift the entire state right by 2% - still significant, but not insurmountable shift.

So far for 2024, I have seen so many post on Miami-Dade County, asking if the County will flip, and how a shift further right will doom Biden. However, Miami-Dade County flipping would only require just under an 8 point shift right from 2020 - that would only push Florida as a whole about a point further right.

I think the bigger and arguably more important political question in Florida is why haven't Democrats seen gains in metros like Orlando and Tampa, when demographically simillar areas have shifted left in recent years? Why have Democrats struggled to break through with retirees despite having the edge on issues like healthcare and social security which disproportionately affect retirees? If Democrats could get 5%ish leftwards shifts with these groups (with continued gains in places like Jacksonville), they could carry Florida while losing Miami-Dade, but they won't because FL Dems suck and right now the mainstream narrative is the only way for Dems to win back Florida is to claw back in Miami-Dade.

Especially for how populous metro Orlando and Tampa are, and the fact they are located in a semi-competitive state, they seem terribly under-discussed on this forum.

Overall, I think Florida still has good long-term prospects for Republicans, but Miami itself is not going to singlehandedly pull Florida hard right in the long run.

[MT Treasurer]

Clinton won Miami-Dade by ~300,000 votes.

Biden won it by ~80,000 votes.

DeSantis lost it by ~170,000 the first time he ran.

He won it by ~80,000 in his reelection bid. 

Those are the kinds of swings you very rarely see in heavily Democratic urban counties. Its importance is not "massively overrated" just because Democrats have also lost ground in other parts of the state. It’s just objectively bad for FL Democrats (Occam's Razor).

[ottermax]

1. The media sees South Florida as the "true" Florida because that's where NE media types go on vacation or now live.

2. Central and North Florida are fairly polarized and as you have mentioned central Florida has been also stagnant in its trends. The self-selection of higher wealth retirees to Florida combined with the popularity of Florida for conservatives means that it is harder to win over these voters compared to others states.

3. Miami-Dade specifically swings in a way that is very unique. It honestly is voting now similarly to 2004, and since then has swung wildly left and right which means that there is a large number of persuadable voters compared to other parts of Florida.

4. Finally, even if other parts of the state are important from the lens of the Democratic Party of Florida, the plurality of its voters are still in South Florida, the bulk of its donors and party apparatus are in South Florida, and it still is the most important region for the party. The swings we have seen in Miami-Dade have also been present in Broward and Palm Beach but to a less noticeable extent. So South Florida will remain critical for any Democrat going forward as the most populous region with arguably still the best demographic profile for Democrats given the diversity and density.

[wnwnwn]

It's because if the curious and well know fact that cuban americans lean republican, at least over other latinos.
Also, it's maybe easier to analyse than the rest of the state.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I think it's also under-discussed how the Puerto Rican population in Central Florida also has a very strong rightward trend. Look at Osceola County, for example.

[Del Tachi]

Miami-Dade is the largest possible basket of votes for Democratic votes in Florida; Democrats (mathematically) cannot win the Sunshine State without a good performance out of Miami-Dade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Miami-Dade is the largest possible basket of votes for Democratic votes in Florida; Democrats (mathematically) cannot win the Sunshine State without a good performance out of Miami-Dade.

Well, that's certainly a piece of the puzzle. Look at 2004. D Senate candidate does very well in I-4 corridor but misses out in Miami Dade and loses the election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Miami-Dade is the largest possible basket of votes for Democratic votes in Florida; Democrats (mathematically) cannot win the Sunshine State without a good performance out of Miami-Dade.

Going forwards, I think it's possible Miami-Dade starts voting to the right of the state in certain elections. A future Dem path to victory in Florida could run through running up margins in the I-4 corridor, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee while losing Miami-Dade. In 2020, Florida without Miami-Dade was "only" Trump + 4.5. Obviously losing Miami-Dade County makes the path much more difficult, but I don't think it makes it impossible.

Overall, I don't think Dems are going to be winning statewide in Florida until the state party can get it's act together and they have a coherent vision for what a winning coalition looks like. Even then, geopolitical shifts may put FL out of reach for Ds in the long-run.

[electionsguy259]

Does anyone know how Dems would do in Florida if they got Hillary 2016 numbers in Miami-Dade while getting Biden 2020 numbers in the rest of the state? I still think it would be a narrow GOP victory, no?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Does anyone know how Dems would do in Florida if they got Hillary 2016 numbers in Miami-Dade while getting Biden 2020 numbers in the rest of the state? I still think it would be a narrow GOP victory, no?

Yep, Trump + 1. FL outside Miami-Dade was basically a wash due to Trump gains in Osceola and Broward Counties with other large counties like Orange and Hillsboro staying stagnant.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Miami-Dade is the largest possible basket of votes for Democratic votes in Florida; Democrats (mathematically) cannot win the Sunshine State without a good performance out of Miami-Dade.

Going forwards, I think it's possible Miami-Dade starts voting to the right of the state in certain elections. A future Dem path to victory in Florida could run through running up margins in the I-4 corridor, Jacksonville, and Tallahassee while losing Miami-Dade. In 2020, Florida without Miami-Dade was "only" Trump + 4.5. Obviously losing Miami-Dade County makes the path much more difficult, but I don't think it makes it impossible.

Overall, I don't think Dems are going to be winning statewide in Florida until the state party can get it's act together and they have a coherent vision for what a winning coalition looks like. Even then, geopolitical shifts may put FL out of reach for Ds in the long-run.

The problem for Dems is just the math isn't there to win Florida without at the bare minimum D+20 in Miami-Dade. The trends in Jacksonville and maybe Orlando could help ensure that they don't need something better than Hillary's 2016 performance to flip the state. However, I think your post focuses only on Miami-Dade which is inaccurate. If Dems are losing ground in Miami-Dade, they are probably losing it in Broward and Palm Beach as well. You take out those 3 and all of a sudden Florida is double digits R.

The Miami metro is the 9th largest in the entire country and is the same as Atlanta in size. However, since Florida has double the population of Georgia it doesn't have as much proportional grip on the state which is why it seems smaller if that makes sense.

Tampa is #17, Orlando is #22, Jacksonville is #38. So while Dems are gaining in Jacksonville it won't be enough to counteract the Miami rightward swing because South Florida is much much larger.