will the Dems make it to 100 years in IN-1?

[pabloni21]

so indiana’s first district has had a democratic representative incumbent since 1931, making it one of the most consistently dem seats in the country. in recent times, things have changed - the big cities of the Region are now quintessential examples of the urban rust belt, the district has been redrawn, and the suburbs are growing. 2022 also had the first competitive race in the district in decades. keeping these shifts in mind, can the Dems keep it going? or will the seat flip before a centennial of party control?

[Schiff for Senate]

It's possible, but I voted no. Unless Mrvan becomes an entrenched incumbent like his predecessor Pete Viclosky - and he might not precisely because a big part of crossover appeal is having tenure on Capitol Hill, which he doesn't - it's likelier than not he gets swept out in the next red wave. Which, if a Democrat wins 2024, would be before 2031. Alternatively, if the GOP wins big on the presidential level in either 2024 or 2028, and the rightward shift continues, that could cost Mrvan his seat in 2024 or 2028 as well. The likelihood that at least one of these happens is probably quite a bit over 50%.

[Red Wall]

Mrvan did terrible he's gonna lose in 2024

[Tekken_Guy]

If Biden wins, Mrvan goes down in 2026 or 2028. If Bien loses by a landslide, Mrvan probably goes down with him.

That beiing said, if Trump narrowly wins, Mrvan probably does survive 2024 and probably won't be in any real danger until 2030 at the earliest, which makes it exactly to 100 years.

[Flyersfan232]

If Biden wins, Mrvan goes down in 2026 or 2028. If Bien loses by a landslide, Mrvan probably goes down with him.

That beiing said, if Trump narrowly wins, Mrvan probably does survive 2024 and probably won't be in any real danger until 2030 at the earliest, which makes it exactly to 100 years.

who is the rnc chair in 2026?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The GOP has a top tier recruit, I don't think it will be enough as I do still expect downballot D's to overperform Biden because he is so unpopular but I wouldn't say Mrvan is 100% safe in 2024

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes