Which of these New York seats will Democrats hold after 2024?

[Tekken_Guy]

Which of these New York seats will Democrats hold after 2024?

[progressive85]

I say NY-11.  You can easily draw a district that includes Staten Island and lower Manhattan that's at least 62% or so D.  Could be a big comeback for Max Rose.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

NY will probably be only Biden +10 in 2024. Interesting to see how blue the seats that Democrats draw end up being; I could easily see a 2024 dummymander (which turns into 22-4 in 2026).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe it's a hack answer that overestimates how Republican New York isn't or how effective a new Democratic gerrymander is; but I say all except NY-1.

[patzer]

I say NY-11.  You can easily draw a district that includes Staten Island and lower Manhattan that's at least 62% or so D.  Could be a big comeback for Max Rose.

Unlikely as that district would probably go to Dan Goldman, leaving an opportunity for a Chinese opportunity south Brooklyn seat.

[Xing]

I'll need to see what the map looks like. If it's an aggressive gerrymander, Republicans probably only keep NY-01, though I could see one where NY-11 remains Republican, particularly if Staten Island trends even further to the right.

[GALeftist]

I'll need to see what the map looks like. If it's an aggressive gerrymander, Republicans probably only keep NY-01, though I could see one where NY-11 remains Republican, particularly if Staten Island trends even further to the right.

The court basically begged them to axe Malliotakis. I think she's toast

[Mr.Phips]

I'll need to see what the map looks like. If it's an aggressive gerrymander, Republicans probably only keep NY-01, though I could see one where NY-11 remains Republican, particularly if Staten Island trends even further to the right.

The court basically begged them to axe Malliotakis. I think she's toast

And you can still make the district very clean looking.

[Red Wall]

None

[S019]

I would say 3/4/11/17 for now, upstate will probably depend on the top line results since they have less room to optimize the map there. It’s entirely possible they also cede one upstate seat and the seats there will be on tighter margins too (I mean the other side is Hochul’s vote didn’t collapse as badly upstate). Districts 1/2 also probably come to the actual map but drawing a solidly D third LI seat might be spreading things too thin if 2022 was indicative of the future.

[cg41386]

None

Good luck with that.