Will Kyrsten Sinema run again?

[wbrocks67]

We're already in December and 2024 is approaching, yet Sinema has still not said whether she's going to run again. Do you think she will?

Personally I'm 50/50. Her recent fundraising emails have indicated that she would, but her actual fundraising is paltry outside of Super PACs, and obviously most polling has shown she doesn't have a path.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not sure, I lean No, because you must be extremely delusional to believe you can win as Indy. Still gove it a 40-45% chance she indeed tries.

[SnowLabrador]

Yes. She's probably been offered a lucrative lobbying gig if she throws the seat to Lake.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yes. She's probably been offered a lucrative lobbying gig if she throws the seat to Lake.

So you think Gallego would win a H2H matchup?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She will Lose regardless of whom is running against her she needs to drop out

[Zedonathin2020]

She will, and she will also place 3rd Behind Gallego (who wins by 3 or 4) and Lake, who will for the rest of eternity complain about "MuH vOtEr FrAuD"

[xavier110]

I don’t really know? She wants to but is smart enough to know it’s likely a losing proposition, which would shatter her fragile psyche.

[SnowLabrador]

Yes. She's probably been offered a lucrative lobbying gig if she throws the seat to Lake.

So you think Gallego would win a H2H matchup?

At this point, he might not, given how bad the environment will be for Democrats due to Biden's unpopularity.

[The Mikado]

Doubt it extremely. She's barely been fundraising. Over the last three quarters she's raised 4.6 million to Gallego's over 9 million. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/13/kyrsten-sinema-donors-democrats-00126676 Not only that, but her fundraising gets worse by the quarter.



Seriously, look at this. Is this the fundraising profile of someone who's getting ready to run a major statewide bid?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

One thing is clear: don't ask her. She won't tell you. She won't tell you when she plans on making an announcement about her plans either. We'll find out when we find out. Filing deadline in Arizona isn't until April, so it could be as late as then.

Personally I do think she runs again - I bet she can convince some corporate donors to majorly fund her campaign. Her fundraising numbers from small donors are bad, but she still does have a significant amount of cash on hand.

If she runs, she'll lose, which will hurt her argument about how Arizona is such a unique place where people reject petty partisan politics and prefer mavericks in the mold of John McCain, which has basically been her entire philosophy behind her Senate service. So she may not want to run if that's the case. She's also privately admitted defeat, if we are to believe Romney's book where he says she claimed "at least I saved the Senate" (by not abolishing the filibuster).

At the same time, a loss if she does run would give her some martyr status - particularly if Lake wins, in which she can claim that Gallego types are not electable in Arizona and partisan politics drove Arizonans to the extreme.

Unlike SnowLabrador I do not believe she wants Lake to win or even that she wants to throw the race to Lake in exchange for a lobbying gig or something. I think she genuinely believes her vision and her style of representation are what is best for Arizona. It's pretty clear that she is extremely egotistical and narcissistic, and I say this as a supporter of hers. I honestly think that she thinks that she is what Arizona needs, and that's why I'm leaning toward thinking she runs.

[MT Treasurer]

Sinema and Manchin are textbook examples of narcissists who are desperate for attention and self-validation.

Manchin loves playing people like a fiddle but he’s also smarter than Sinema, so he’d never risk taking the fatal blow to his ego that a loss to Jim Justice would be. Now he can go out as the successful Senator from a Trump +42 state who no one saw through and no one, not even Donald Trump, could beat — doesn’t that feel good? Still, it’s not enough and he wants more of it. The narcissist in him has reared his ugly head and Manchin is starting to feel desperate again: desperate to stay in the headlines, to stay relevant, to feel important, to feel good about himself, hence the (performative) presidential run. Any attention is better than no attention. 

Sinema is trying hard to emulate Joe Manchin, but she’s just a lot worse at it than him. Still, it’s a very similar pattern: She’d rather play spoiler (to either side) because that would make her important even if she loses in a humiliating fashion. She’s not going to leave office quietly because she can’t.

[Del Tachi]

Yes, but for president