In a Gallego vs. Lake vs. Sinema race, which parts of Arizona does Sinema do the best?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I wouldn't expect Sinema to outright win anywhere. Maybe a couple of precincts she could come in 2nd place. But relative to her performance statewide, where would she be strongest? Where are the remaining Sinema supporters (who would actually vote for her over Lake) located?

A few possible contenders:

-the outer Phoenix suburbs that still mostly vote Republican but are trending D, particularly in the northern reaches of Scottsdale and Glendale. Especially AZ-01 / Schweikert's district.

-the Navajo Nation for Sinema's investments in tribal nations

-Border areas, especially places like Sierra Vista

-Greenlee County (ancestral Democrats?? lol)

I would have said resist Lib suburbs like AZ-04 (the successor of Sinema's old House seat) or the northern Tucson burbs, but these areas are too partisan now.

[MarkD]

She will, of course, most likely do best in all of the areas that were in the previous incarnation of AZ-9.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

AZ 9 and possibly Mormons. But this race is not winnable for the gop regardless as long as Lake is the nominee

[xavier110]

I disagree that she would perform best in her old stomping ground, which is now largely AZ-04. The heart of her district was south Scottsdale/Tempe area and parts of Phoenix, which are as partisan D as they get. As polls show, she’s gonna do better in affluent, country-club-Republican-but-repulsed-by-MAGA areas, which isn’t exactly the demo of a big college town. I guess Mesa Mormons, maybe, but still…I would look north.

[Mr. Smith]

Prescott.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I disagree that she would perform best in her old stomping ground, which is now largely AZ-04. The heart of her district was south Scottsdale/Tempe area and parts of Phoenix, which are as partisan D as they get. As polls show, she’s gonna do better in affluent, country-club-Republican-but-repulsed-by-MAGA areas, which isn’t exactly the demo of a big college town. I guess Mesa Mormons, maybe, but still…I would look north.

Agree. No way she does good in a college town like Tempe just because that used to be in her House district.

[Cyrusman]

McCormick Ranch in the Scottsdale area. Filled with a bunch of white people with higher degrees who are former country club Republicans who like low taxes but are pretty socially moderate to liberal. These people hate MAGA but also aren't leftist's.

[Roll Roons]

Yeah, I would think AZ-01, especially Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. That's basically the "McCain Republican" heartland - people who are clearly turned off by MAGA types like Lake, but aren't calling themselves full-on Democrats for now.