TX-SEN, MO-SEN: Trump says Hawley and Cruz are endangered and should watch out

[The Mikado]

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111557139378057622

So interesting that the Democrats are looking hard at the Senate races in both Missouri and Texas. Josh and Ted must be very careful, stranger things have happened!!!

Thoughts? Trump has gained a reputation for being one of the savviest political commentators of our era, after all. Is he right that we've been sleeping on these races?

[Tekken_Guy]

They're not going to lose, but it's never a good idea to be complacent.

[President Johnson]

Texas is at least semi-competitive, I don't see Hawley endangered at all. As much as he'd deserve to lose (or both of them).

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Oh great, even more resist lib money will flow into Missouri now instead of winnable races! Bye-bye, Jacky Rosen

[Schiff for Senate]

Texas is at least semi-competitive, I don't see Hawley endangered at all. As much as he'd deserve to lose (or both of them).

I disagree. In 2018 Democrats still came up 3 points short, and 2024 will be more favorable to Cruz for a number of reasons -

a.) The Democratic nominee in 2024 (Allred) will, I would argue, be much quite a bit weaker as a candidate than Beto O'Rourke was in 2018.
b.) Since 2018 South Texas has tacked sharply rightward, and one thing the 2022 elections showed is that that wasn't a one-cycle shift. Cruz will do significantly better in RGV counties like Starr.
c.) Presidential election year, so more polarization / influence from top of the ticket. I also expect that GOP will win TX on the presidential level next year, even if Trump's the nominee. Leftward trends in Houston stagnated in 2020, and sharp leftward trends in DFW and Austin alone won't be enough to make up the remaining 6%, especially not when counteracted by a possible continued rightward shift further south.

[Roll Roons]

Texas is at least semi-competitive, I don't see Hawley endangered at all. As much as he'd deserve to lose (or both of them).

I disagree. In 2018 Democrats still came up 3 points short, and 2024 will be more favorable to Cruz for a number of reasons -

a.) The Democratic nominee in 2024 (Allred) will, I would argue, be much quite a bit weaker as a candidate than Beto O'Rourke was in 2018.
b.) Since 2018 South Texas has tacked sharply rightward, and one thing the 2022 elections showed is that that wasn't a one-cycle shift. Cruz will do significantly better in RGV counties like Starr.
c.) Presidential election year, so more polarization / influence from top of the ticket. I also expect that GOP will win TX on the presidential level next year, even if Trump's the nominee. Leftward trends in Houston stagnated in 2020, and sharp leftward trends in DFW and Austin alone won't be enough to make up the remaining 6%, especially not when counteracted by a possible continued rightward shift further south.

South Texas actually isn't that populous. The bigger statewide obstacles for Texas Democrats are Harris County, where they're just not getting the numbers they need, and the exurbs of the big cities plus smaller metros where Republicans still net a lot of votes.

[Schiff for Senate]

Texas is at least semi-competitive, I don't see Hawley endangered at all. As much as he'd deserve to lose (or both of them).

I disagree. In 2018 Democrats still came up 3 points short, and 2024 will be more favorable to Cruz for a number of reasons -

a.) The Democratic nominee in 2024 (Allred) will, I would argue, be much quite a bit weaker as a candidate than Beto O'Rourke was in 2018.
b.) Since 2018 South Texas has tacked sharply rightward, and one thing the 2022 elections showed is that that wasn't a one-cycle shift. Cruz will do significantly better in RGV counties like Starr.
c.) Presidential election year, so more polarization / influence from top of the ticket. I also expect that GOP will win TX on the presidential level next year, even if Trump's the nominee. Leftward trends in Houston stagnated in 2020, and sharp leftward trends in DFW and Austin alone won't be enough to make up the remaining 6%, especially not when counteracted by a possible continued rightward shift further south.

South Texas actually isn't that populous. The bigger statewide obstacles for Texas Democrats are Harris County, where they're just not getting the numbers they need, and the exurbs of the big cities plus smaller metros where Republicans still net a lot of votes.

Yeah, honestly on the whole underwhelming trends in Harris County are more concerning than what's going on in South TX. My point is, Dallas and Austin alone can't cover the distance Democrats need to make up to win in TX. It's gonna take a few more election cycles worth of urban growth for them to be able to flip the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are endangered and so is Deb Fischer in NEB

[Xing]

Even if Cruz is favored, it would be foolish for Republicans to take that race for granted. He's not the kind of Republican (like Cornyn) who can count on significantly stronger numbers than Trump in the suburbs. Hawley, on the other hand, is absolutely safe, even if his margin doesn't end up being that impressive.

[The Mikado]

Several people, most notably Weigel in Semafor, have argued that this statement was made as a veiled threat to Hawley and Cruz that it paid off as Hawley has now endorsed Trump, meaning he got the message about Trump warning that he was in danger.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4357708-josh-hawley-donald-trump-endorsement-2024-after-warning/

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oh great, even more resist lib money will flow into Missouri now instead of winnable races! Bye-bye, Jacky Rosen

Honestly there's so much money in politics these days, I think the marginal return on investing more money in a given race becomes marginal. Democrats are going to ensure Jacky Rosen is well funded, however, after a certain point throwing more and more money at the race becomes meaningless.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump=Riverwalk3

[SilverStar]

Texas is at least semi-competitive, I don't see Hawley endangered at all. As much as he'd deserve to lose (or both of them).

I disagree. In 2018 Democrats still came up 3 points short, and 2024 will be more favorable to Cruz for a number of reasons -

a.) The Democratic nominee in 2024 (Allred) will, I would argue, be much quite a bit weaker as a candidate than Beto O'Rourke was in 2018.
b.) Since 2018 South Texas has tacked sharply rightward, and one thing the 2022 elections showed is that that wasn't a one-cycle shift. Cruz will do significantly better in RGV counties like Starr.
c.) Presidential election year, so more polarization / influence from top of the ticket. I also expect that GOP will win TX on the presidential level next year, even if Trump's the nominee. Leftward trends in Houston stagnated in 2020, and sharp leftward trends in DFW and Austin alone won't be enough to make up the remaining 6%, especially not when counteracted by a possible continued rightward shift further south.

Allred is stronger than Beto

[Schiff for Senate]

Texas is at least semi-competitive, I don't see Hawley endangered at all. As much as he'd deserve to lose (or both of them).

I disagree. In 2018 Democrats still came up 3 points short, and 2024 will be more favorable to Cruz for a number of reasons -

a.) The Democratic nominee in 2024 (Allred) will, I would argue, be much quite a bit weaker as a candidate than Beto O'Rourke was in 2018.
b.) Since 2018 South Texas has tacked sharply rightward, and one thing the 2022 elections showed is that that wasn't a one-cycle shift. Cruz will do significantly better in RGV counties like Starr.
c.) Presidential election year, so more polarization / influence from top of the ticket. I also expect that GOP will win TX on the presidential level next year, even if Trump's the nominee. Leftward trends in Houston stagnated in 2020, and sharp leftward trends in DFW and Austin alone won't be enough to make up the remaining 6%, especially not when counteracted by a possible continued rightward shift further south.

Allred is stronger than Beto

Beto 2023? Absolutely. Beto 2018? I'd say not, tbh, but I'd certainly love to hear an evaluation from someone in Texas with better insight on this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The weakest D in swing states is obviously, Debbie Powell and Sinema, that's why Allred, Kunce still have a chance

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

I would have agreed with Ted Cruz, but not in the general election, but in the Republican Primary, but it seems Cruz isn't facing a serious primary challenge. What has Cruz done in the last 6 years or so to mend fences with Texas Republicans? There was a time when it seemed everybody hated Ted Cruz (he did, after all, assassinate JFK.)

Has he done a lot of fundraising or speechmaking for the state party or something?

[MarkD]

What Trump says should be held in very little esteem. He's one of the most deceitful presidents in US history.