Predict Sherrod Brown's margin of defeat.

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is 4 points, with Trump winning Ohio by 13. Biden has become so unpopular that even Brown's overperformance will not be enough. 

[President Johnson]

He either wins or loses by less than three points.

[Zedonathin2020]

Theres also the chance that he, you know, wins.

But if he DOES lose it'll be close. Like 1 1/2 to 2 points

[Atlas Force]

SnowLabrador threaf

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

My current thought is 5 points.

In 2012  he did 3 points better  than Obama, in 2020 Trump won Ohio by 8.

His margin in 2018, in a race the GOP really didn't seriously contest was worse than the Congressional ballot by a few points and he significantly underperformed his polling.   

He can still win but I personally think he needs Biden to be doing alot better than he is.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Probably about 8 points. Presidential level MAGA turnout will destroy him.

[Del Tachi]

He wins by 3-5 points, even as Trump wins OH by >10 points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If he does in fact lose: three or four points.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Idk if he will actually lose Brown has a better chance of reelection than Biden.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Brown has a better chance of reelection than Biden.

This is a Riverwalk posf.

[Lief 🗽]

6-7%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol he is winning by 3 pts and lead in every poll

[Horus]

He will win.

[TDAS04]

I predict Brown will lose by -1%. In other words, I predict Brown will win by 1%.

[Dave Hedgehog]

I can see it being something like a 3-5 point loss. I think Trump being on the ticket is going to be too much of a barrier for him to overcome; OH and IA are probably the two most Trump-enhanced states I can think of (arguably FL is up there too but the margins there over the last four cycles have been narrower for both sides).

I may reassess this if Trump is ultimately not the Republican nominee or if there is some huge spat between him and whoever gets the R Senate nomination (as I think most of their strength is going to come from his coattails).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I predict Brown will lose by -1%. In other words, I predict Brown will win by 1%.

Lol he has lead in every poll not one poll has LaRose winning

[patzer]

I think he'll keep it fairly close. Only loses by maybe 4%.

[Roll Roons]

If he loses, it won’t be by more than 3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think he'll keep it fairly close. Only loses by maybe 4%.

Brown had lead in every poll sorry to tell you

[pabloni21]

brown wins by 1-4, trump wins oh by 9-11

[Xing]

I immediately knew who started this thread before opening it. Attention-seeking trolls gonna troll in an attention-seeking way. Anyway, my guess is that Brown loses by 2-3%, but as others have said, this race isn’t over, particularly if Moreno is his opponent.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I immediately knew who started this thread before opening it. Attention-seeking trolls gonna troll in an attention-seeking way. Anyway, my guess is that Brown loses by 2-3%, but as others have said, this race isn’t over, particularly if Moreno is his opponent.

Brown is leading in every poll not one has LaRose winning

[MT Treasurer]

Will make a more detailed post on the Predictions board in due time, but my prediction for Ohio:

OH-SEN: Brown (D) +3.5

OH-PRES: Trump (R) +5.5

Trump underperformance of pre-election polling (due to non-response bias, lower-than-expected GOP turnout, and Biden consolidating Ds/undecideds) & blue wave down ballot. Basically a repeat of 2012, with the exception of the House, which Democrats flip rather easily.

This would largely be in line with 2022/2023 & special election results.

Republicans vow to learn their lesson after this debacle only for 2026 to turn into another 2022-style underperformance (Collins & Tillis go down, Ds hold every other Senate seat & the House).

[S019]

OH Pres: Trump+12, other Republicans+15

OH SEN: LaRose+6, Moreno+3

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Ig -2 cause he’s a good chance of winning