NJ-GOV 2025: Megathread

[JMT]

I didn’t see a megathread for this race yet.

Stephen Sweeney is set to jump into the race on Monday. He joins Steven Fulop in the Democratic primary, and I expect the field will continue to grow (to possibly include Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer)

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1732871547600154862?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tb...

[Zedonathin2020]

There is already a thread for this

[JMT]

There is already a thread for this

Where is it? I couldn’t find it.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1748061667454275705
https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1747005416481972583

[ProgressiveModerate]

Rlly hope Steve Fulop wins. He's a great mayor of JC and is decently responsive to very local issues for a city of it's size. He's also just charismatic and young. He also has pretty broad appeal within the Dem Party to both progressives and moderates.

Sadly though I'm not *too* optimistic about his chances because of the Jersey political machine and also the fact Jersey City is somewhat culturally isolated from the rest of the state and seen as just a bedroom for NYC.

[MargieCat]

I wonder if Sherrill and Gottheimer are going to get in.

Hopefully they have the class to not get in and run for their house seat this year, leading to a special. I have a lot of respect for Spanberger for choosing not to seek reelection this cycle.

[Oryxslayer]

I wonder if Sherrill and Gottheimer are going to get in.

Sherril's all but confirmed to be running unless something more attractive appears in the next year.

Gottheimer is also sounding it out. IMO his decision may end up determined by the results from the Senate Primary and where he is positioned in the House after November.


On the GOP side, Bramnick announced and immediately got all the anti-Trumpists in his camp, including Boehner. However, unless the state party rolls over for him (which it legitimately could), there's too much energy around Trump-aligned (once) stars for him to get the nod. Testa, Durr, and of course Ciattarelli are all looking at the race.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/onejerseyschorr/status/1759742718987653506?s=46&t=s9uZo2...

We seem to be getting an awful lot of North Jersey candidates.

[Roll Roons]

With so many North Jersey candidates (Fulop, Baraka, probably Sherrill and maybe Gottheimer), I wonder if Sweeney might have a wider path to the nomination than we think.

Imagine the map we'd get from a Sweeney vs. Bramnick race...

[S019]

With so many North Jersey candidates (Fulop, Baraka, Sherrill and maybe Gottheimer), I wonder if Sweeney might have a wider path to the nomination than we think.

Imagine the map we'd get from a Sweeney vs. Bramnick race...

My opinion for a while has been that writing Sweeney off just because he lost to Durr is a bit silly. The South Jersey machine returned in full force in 2023 and he can only serve to benefit from the vote splitting up north. A Bramnick vs Sweeney race would definitely indeed feel like a return to the past, though I think it may be hard for him to win a Republican primary in the year 2025, and I'm not particularly convinced the county party system will work to his benefit.

[Oryxslayer]

With so many North Jersey candidates (Fulop, Baraka, Sherrill and maybe Gottheimer), I wonder if Sweeney might have a wider path to the nomination than we think.

Imagine the map we'd get from a Sweeney vs. Bramnick race...

My opinion for a while has been that writing Sweeney off just because he lost to Durr is a bit silly. The South Jersey machine returned in full force in 2023 and he can only serve to benefit from the ticket splitting up north. A Bramnick vs Sweeney race would definitely indeed feel like a return to the past, though I think it may be hard for him to win a Republican primary in the year 2025, and I'm not particularly convinced the county party system will work to his benefit.

Also crucially, New Jersey is not the same state as is was 20/30 years ago. If we end up with so many candidates of various local machines running, which it is right now, then nobody's base is sizable enough on its own. Everyone will need to try and win some section of the now sizable anti-machine vote. As we are seeing now in the senate race however, this vote can consolidate easily with the right appeals, and that candidate will win quite easily without a single rival.

[kwabbit]

Kellyanne Conway is airing an anti-Spadea ad calling him out for criticizing Trump for not successfully dismantling the deep state. For those who don't know, Spadea is a hardline conservative radio host who has tried to build his own little political movement in NJ. Although pretty unsuccessful thus far, he is expected to join the Governor's race and would probably be the type of shiny unelectable object that GOP primary voters like to chase. Conway and this PAC are ostensibly pro-Ciattarelli, although he hasn't joined the race yet.

[Roll Roons]

Kellyanne Conway is airing an anti-Spadea ad calling him out for criticizing Trump for not successfully dismantling the deep state. For those who don't know, Spadea is a hardline conservative radio host who has tried to build his own little political movement in NJ. Although pretty unsuccessful thus far, he is expected to join the Governor's race and would probably be the type of shiny unelectable object that GOP primary voters like to chase. Conway and this PAC are ostensibly pro-Ciattarelli, although he hasn't joined the race yet.

Makes sense, a Spadea nomination would likely be as disastrous for the NJ GOP as Mastriano and Dan Cox were in their own states. 

[Spectator]

Kellyanne Conway is airing an anti-Spadea ad calling him out for criticizing Trump for not successfully dismantling the deep state. For those who don't know, Spadea is a hardline conservative radio host who has tried to build his own little political movement in NJ. Although pretty unsuccessful thus far, he is expected to join the Governor's race and would probably be the type of shiny unelectable object that GOP primary voters like to chase. Conway and this PAC are ostensibly pro-Ciattarelli, although he hasn't joined the race yet.

Why air ads before we even know who the President will be? A Trump victory in 2024 removes this race entirely off the radar.

[kwabbit]

Kellyanne Conway is airing an anti-Spadea ad calling him out for criticizing Trump for not successfully dismantling the deep state. For those who don't know, Spadea is a hardline conservative radio host who has tried to build his own little political movement in NJ. Although pretty unsuccessful thus far, he is expected to join the Governor's race and would probably be the type of shiny unelectable object that GOP primary voters like to chase. Conway and this PAC are ostensibly pro-Ciattarelli, although he hasn't joined the race yet.

Why air ads before we even know who the President will be? A Trump victory in 2024 removes this race entirely off the radar.

A good GOP candidate will still prevent losses in the legislature. The GOP has a lot of incumbents in seats that aren't winnable by anyone else so if they lose those they would never have a chance to win the legislature or reduce the Dem majority enough to affect policy.

[darklordoftech]

With so many North Jersey candidates (Fulop, Baraka, Sherrill and maybe Gottheimer), I wonder if Sweeney might have a wider path to the nomination than we think.

Imagine the map we'd get from a Sweeney vs. Bramnick race...

My opinion for a while has been that writing Sweeney off just because he lost to Durr is a bit silly. The South Jersey machine returned in full force in 2023 and he can only serve to benefit from the ticket splitting up north. A Bramnick vs Sweeney race would definitely indeed feel like a return to the past, though I think it may be hard for him to win a Republican primary in the year 2025, and I'm not particularly convinced the county party system will work to his benefit.

Also crucially, New Jersey is not the same state as is was 20/30 years ago. If we end up with so many candidates of various local machines running, which it is right now, then nobody's base is sizable enough on its own. Everyone will need to try and win some section of the now sizable anti-machine vote. As we are seeing now in the senate race however, this vote can consolidate easily with the right appeals, and that candidate will win quite easily without a single rival.

How would Sweeney appeal to anti-machine voters? Isn't he one of the leaders of the machine?

[Oryxslayer]

With so many North Jersey candidates (Fulop, Baraka, Sherrill and maybe Gottheimer), I wonder if Sweeney might have a wider path to the nomination than we think.

Imagine the map we'd get from a Sweeney vs. Bramnick race...

My opinion for a while has been that writing Sweeney off just because he lost to Durr is a bit silly. The South Jersey machine returned in full force in 2023 and he can only serve to benefit from the ticket splitting up north. A Bramnick vs Sweeney race would definitely indeed feel like a return to the past, though I think it may be hard for him to win a Republican primary in the year 2025, and I'm not particularly convinced the county party system will work to his benefit.

Also crucially, New Jersey is not the same state as is was 20/30 years ago. If we end up with so many candidates of various local machines running, which it is right now, then nobody's base is sizable enough on its own. Everyone will need to try and win some section of the now sizable anti-machine vote. As we are seeing now in the senate race however, this vote can consolidate easily with the right appeals, and that candidate will win quite easily without a single rival.

How would Sweeney appeal to anti-machine voters? Isn't he one of the leaders of the machine?

Exactly. Right now he's the only southern candidate, so will probably get some support from the region not tied to the machine, but that's it. The same can be said of most candidates running right now: likely to lock down their regional machines, maybe get some regional support, but are fundamentally candidates of a region.

Which is why IMO, as long as the machines can't coalesce cause of all the locally connected candidates, the person with the most appeal to the overall anti-machine vote easy wins. The suburban, educated, electability-focused, 'steady the ship,' 'nothing distasteful' type voter. Which right now is Sherrill, even though her network will be complimented by some support from her local allies. But that can change.

[wbrocks67]

Can Sherrill just announce already and put this thing to bed lol.

[henster]

Can Sherrill just announce already and put this thing to bed lol.

She may just be waiting until after her reelection. It just seems bad form to announce your running for Governor and still openly run for another term you won't finish. Spanberger just retired because doing otherwise she would've lost reelection from running a simultaneous campaign.

[LabourJersey]

Can Sherrill just announce already and put this thing to bed lol.

I actually don't think she's going to put this to bed. Fulop and Baraka has clear bases of support in North Jersey, and Sweeney has his in South Jersey.

Sherill would be a good candidate but she has work to do, especially in North and Central Jersey to build up support. This won't be like Spanberger's coronation.

[kwabbit]

Can Sherrill just announce already and put this thing to bed lol.

I actually don't think she's going to put this to bed. Fulop and Baraka has clear bases of support in North Jersey, and Sweeney has his in South Jersey.

Sherill would be a good candidate but she has work to do, especially in North and Central Jersey to build up support. This won't be like Spanberger's coronation.

Do you think Baraka will get the Essex line or will Sherrill still have a chance? Sweeney has a definite path opening up, one that was much harder to imagine a few years ago.

[LabourJersey]

Can Sherrill just announce already and put this thing to bed lol.

I actually don't think she's going to put this to bed. Fulop and Baraka has clear bases of support in North Jersey, and Sweeney has his in South Jersey.

Sherill would be a good candidate but she has work to do, especially in North and Central Jersey to build up support. This won't be like Spanberger's coronation.

Do you think Baraka will get the Essex line or will Sherrill still have a chance? Sweeney has a definite path opening up, one that was much harder to imagine a few years ago.

I'm honestly not sure.

I think Baraka assumes that he will get the Essex line - he would have no hope of even coming close otherwise, in my opinion. But that doesn't mean that he will get it.

[Oryxslayer]

This race could suddenly become very different, thanks to Kim and if the line stays abolished. All or almost all candidates currently on the Dem side have some component of line/institutional dependence, which makes them all the weaker if someone people like (Sherrill?) hops in. The GOP weren't as dependent on the line, but it makes them much more vulnerable to the base. The party will have a harder time hoisting a moderate on the Trumpists.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This race could suddenly become very different, thanks to Kim and if the line stays abolished. All or almost all candidates currently on the Dem side have some component of line/institutional dependence, which makes them all the weaker if someone people like (Sherrill?) hops in. The GOP weren't as dependent on the line, but it makes them much more vulnerable to the base. The party will have a harder time hoisting a moderate on the Trumpists.

I hope Hirsh Singh gets nominated.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I personally like Fulop, however, I struggle to see Fulop winning the primary. He's locally popular in Jersey City, but Jersey City is very different from the rest of NJ, and infact I think a lot of NJ frowns in Jersey City because of it increasingly becoming a bedroom community for NYC which ultimately drives up prices.