Why are Democrats consistently doing better in the Senate level compared to the rest?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Current polls show Trump/House Rs winning the popular vote, but Democrats winning almost everything at the Senate level, including OH and MT. In fact, polling shows Republicans in danger of losing Nebraska at the Senate level, even as Trump does very well.

We saw the same phenomenon in 2022: House Rs did do okay and won the popular vote by 3 (including every close state in 2020 except for Michigan), but Senate Ds greatly outperformed, often outperforming House Ds by 5+ points in the same state.

[cherry mandarin]

Why are Democrats consistently doing better in the Senate level right now, as opposed to further up or down the ballot?

Because they have so many incumbents running. Brown's and Tester's name recognition and personal popularity can probably explain and account for those contests. As for Nebraska, how many polls are showing that it's a close race? Does anyone genuinely believe the GOP will be in any sort of trouble there whatsoever next fall?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Why are Democrats consistently doing better in the Senate level right now, as opposed to further up or down the ballot?

Because they have so many incumbents running. Brown's and Tester's name recognition and personal popularity can probably explain and account for those contests. As for Nebraska, how many polls are showing that it's a close race? Does anyone genuinely believe the GOP will be in any sort of trouble there whatsoever next fall?

No, but the GOP could easily put up another 10 point underperformance in Nebraska compared to Trump. More concretely, this could cause problems for the GOP in places like Florida and Texas if there is a 10 point underperformance, allowing Trump to win with a Democratic Senate.

[cherry mandarin]

this could cause problems for the GOP in places like Florida and Texas

One or both parties may end up spending there, but I view neither as a marquee match-up at the moment, and currently I think it's highly unlikely that Scott or Cruz are endangered incumbents in their respective races.

[Electric Circus]

Republicans had a (systematic) candidate quality problem in 2022. There aren't enough high-quality polls to assess the state of 2024.

[The Mikado]

Eh. I still have House > Presidency > Senate for chance of Dems holding each of the three. Redistricting elsewhere is neutralizing GOP redraw in NC and the GOP has a bunch of vulnerable freshmen seats. I think there's probably a world where the NPV is something like Biden +2.5ish where the result is President Trump with a 52-48 R Senate but a narrow D House.

[cherry mandarin]

The chance that the Democrats will hold

It's funny  just  how frequently  people  seem to forget  that  the GOP  currently holds  the majority  in  the House, given  this fall's  speakership antics  and  whatnot.

there's probably a world where the NPV is something like Biden +2.5 but the result is President Trump

If Biden's winning  nationwide  by 2.5%  next year, I have  an exceedingly difficult time  trying to see  how Trump  can reach  270 EVs again, in all honesty.

Also, if Trump wins, I think  the national environment  will be  sufficiently favourable  to  the GOP  that   enough  of  their incumbents  should be able to hold on  and  carry  the day  to  yet another   Republican hold   in terms of   the  overall  balance of power   in  the House of Representatives.

[TPIG]

Because in Senate races, candidate quality matters significantly more than at the House level, where money is almost always the determining factor. At the Presidential level, Trump is a pretty unique character and there's ample evidence to indicate that Trumpian candidates who are not literally Donald Trump tend to do very poorly. Nominate insane Trump-cultist candidates? Kiss swing seats in the Senate goodbye.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Because the overwhelming amount of incumbents are Democrats and incumbents at a senate level tend to poll much better at this stage(as they have high name recognition while their hypothetical opponent have pretty low name recognition).

This does not mean they will be polling like this next Fall

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Because in Senate races, candidate quality matters significantly more than at the House level, where money is almost always the determining factor. At the Presidential level, Trump is a pretty unique character and there's amble evidence to indicate that Trumpian candidates who are not literally Donald Trump tend to do very poorly. Nominate insane Trump-cultist candidates? Kiss swing seats in the Senate goodbye.

It also feels strange how Trumpian candidates only get 30% in the Senate primaries, but Trump himself seems on track to get at least double that.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's only incumbency which is helping them. An open Montana race is safe R, Ohio would be likely R, Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Nevada would be tossup, and places like Minnesota and Virginia would be legimtimately lean D rather than the strong likely D given to them right now.

[MT Treasurer]

Because (a) the more united and disciplined party (Democrats) tends to put up smarter candidates than the divided, undisciplined opposition party (Republicans), (b) GOP leadership has learned only some (and in many cases the wrong) lessons from 2022, (c) the national Republican Party is still very unpopular and unappealing even to vast swaths of the electorate that support Donald Trump, (d) Biden is quite clearly weaker than generic Democrat, and (e) a lot of GOP challengers still have room to grow their name ID and we can expect the gap to narrow as we get closer to election day.

[SnowLabrador]

They're not, it's just an illusion caused by bad polling.

[Tekken_Guy]

They're not, it's just an illusion caused by bad polling.

Then I guess Trump's lead is also an illusion?

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

They're not, it's just an illusion caused by bad polling.

I thought that in 2022, that it made no sense for Republicans to be winning the generic ballot by 2.8 in 2022 but Republicans losing states that were 4 or more points to the right of the popular vote at the Senate level. It turned out that the polls were right and that there was indeed a huge discrepancy between House and Senate results.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls are overstating Trump support not in primary but in GE that's why Trump isn't up 8

[Pericles]

The 2016 and 2020 results largely reflected presidential election voting behaviour. 2018 had Democratic incumbents I. Safe Trump states so of course candidate quality favoured them (as it will to some extent in 2024), and 2022 had a smaller candidate quality effect. It's not anything natural about Senate elections though but just the luck of each cycle.

[Mr. Smith]

It's an illusion caused by incumbency and media forgetting how bad of a map it is, whereas 2022 had a very favorable map + incumbency [but the nitwits still drowned Lt. Gov. Barnes anyway for not being a pure centrist]

Once things heat up for real, either the Senate diminishes, or Biden +The House rise.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They're not, it's just an illusion caused by bad polling.

Then I guess Trump's lead is also an illusion?

I think you got him there.

[free my dawg]

They're not, it's just an illusion caused by bad polling.

damn i can't believe 2022 was a dream

[Bush did 311]

Biden specifically is unpopular with a quarter or so of the dem coalition. These people are using the polls to voice their disapproval of his policy on Gaza and his inability to help average people more with inflation.

They will still vote downballot, though Senate and House polling is notoriously less reliable than Presidential polling for a lot of reasons.

[David Hume]

Why are Democrats consistently doing better in the Senate level right now, as opposed to further up or down the ballot?

Because they have so many incumbents running. Brown's and Tester's name recognition and personal popularity can probably explain and account for those contests. As for Nebraska, how many polls are showing that it's a close race? Does anyone genuinely believe the GOP will be in any sort of trouble there whatsoever next fall?

Even in races without incumbents, D did more better consider the environments. In 2022 PA, WI, OH, NC, in 2020 GA, AZ. I would say R's candidate quality in Trump era is just horrible, such that nominating an average non-crazy R would be considered as a win.