PPIC: CA Biden ahead 54-30

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1732639089613050122

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who wants Garvey no one does

[Rand]

Peepee I See? What a perverted name for a research company.

[MT Treasurer]

This is another data point which goes against the "Trump's gains are predominantly from blue states and his EC advantage is basically gone now" narrative, which always struck me as copium (even in the NY threads, for that matter — there is no universe in which Trump loses NY by 10 but doesn’t carry PA).

The reason Democrats overperformed the "national popular vote" in actual battleground states/districts so dramatically in 2022 was because they overperformed everywhere they knew they would be vulnerable and focused their efforts accordingly. Their surgical, dispassionate approach to campaigning paid off against a dysfunctional, underfunded, divided, undisciplined mess of an opposition party that didn’t have an actual leader/message for that cycle and that is unpopular even with a lot of voters that Trump brought into the fold. Republicans are still a mess and will still underperform in 2024, but with Biden on the ballot in a presidential year and (presumably) inflated turnout from GOP & less engaged voters, dynamics are different now and the surgical model is a lot harder to replicate than in 2022.

It’s why that 2024 Senate map is up at the worst possible time for Democrats, basically. GOP wouldn’t be viable in several of those races (e.g. PA/WI/MI) in an off-year without Biden leading the ticket.

[Open Source Intelligence]

I imagine some Democrats really hope that one of the top two slots in the Senate primary is taken by Garvey, so that way they don't have a D vs. D general election matchup drawing away resources needed for other contested races. Garvey gets in, they can ignore it and declare a winner the whole party backs.