McCarthy resigning at the end of the month

[GeorgiaModerate]

So GOP's majority will be down to 3 votes.

Isn't it 3 right now without Santos? Wouldn't it be down to 2?

No, because a vacancy is less powerful than a vote for the other side.  Right now it's 221R, 213D, 1 vacant, so R's can afford to lose 3 defections in a vote (4 defections would result in a tied vote). 

With McCarthy leaving, it will be 220-213 and they could still lose 3 defections. If Santos is replaced by a Democrat (which is not a sure thing) and no other changes happen, they would then be at 220-214 and could lose only 2 defections.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's funny about that is that in literally eight years, all three of them were gone for different reasons

Cantor - 2014, Primaried, was the House Majority Leader
Ryan - 2018, Retired, only one to become Speaker for a full term
McCarthy- 2023 (technically 2024), resigned, stopped from being Speaker in 2015 then became House Majority then House Minority Leader, became shortest Speaker in history.

McCarthy is the third* shortest Speaker in history. Theodore M. Pomeroy was Speaker for only a day, acting as a placeholder between when the previous Speaker was sworn in as Vice-President and when he left office the next day. Michael C. Kerr is the second shortest holding the position for 257 days before his death. McCarthy was Speaker for 269 days.

*(Technically Mike Johnson has only been Speaker for 42 days and thus in theory could "beat" McCarthy and Kerr, so McCarthy is technically the fourth shortest Speaker as of now.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I totally expect that someone here will research the heights of previous Speakers to determine which one was in fact the shortest.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, this seat is designed to facilitate Hispanic access districts in the rest of the valley, which means it has a majority white electorate. In this part of CA, that means very safe GOP, and even more safe in a lower-turnout special. Unless the votes are split atrociously across multiple candidates, There could theoretically be a R v R runoff here.

Some potential local politicians:

Former Senate Minority leader Shannon Grove's districts, both past and present, have high overlap with McCarthy's seat. She is also seemingly more in tune with the national GOP than the average Californian. Additionally, she would seemingly align better with McCarthy's enemies than his friends, something that I suspect Republican voters will be looking for when replacing leadership. Unless she says No, or a national figure hops in, I suspect she is the frontrunner.

Vince Fong's assembly district similarly overlaps with McCarthy's former congressional seat. He is the opposite of Grove. Young, Asian-American in a region that is mostly white and Hispanic, and most importantly a party insider. He worked for valley congressman, including McCarthy, for many years before winning election to the assembly.

Jim Patterson is barred by term limited for running for reelection to the State Assembly in his Fresno-Clovis seat. Presently he's jumping over to the County Commission, but its not hard to change that.

Devon Mathis is also not running for reelection and can hop over, but his districts have had minimal overlap.

Kern County Supervisors Zack Scrivner, Phillip Peters, and Jeff Flores.

Fresno Supervisor Nathan Magsig.

I'm not as familiar with the Tulare local politicians, but I'm sure there are some.


What's Nunez doing these days anyway?

[Smash255]

So GOP's majority will be down to 3 votes.

Isn't it 3 right now without Santos? Wouldn't it be down to 2?

No, because a vacancy is less powerful than a vote for the other side.  Right now it's 221R, 213D, 1 vacant, so R's can afford to lose 3 defections in a vote (4 defections would result in a tied vote). 

With McCarthy leaving, it will be 220-213 and they could still lose 3 defections. If Santos is replaced by a Democrat (which is not a sure thing) and no other changes happen, they would then be at 220-214 and could lose only 2 defections.

Also keep in mind Higgins is retiring in February so even if the Democrats do win the NY-03 Special the 220-214 advantage would be short lived at best (and might not even take shape depending on exact date of Higgi though would then go to 219-213 once Johnson leaves

[MarkD]

Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't blame him, given that his best friend just got expelled.

[DrScholl]

It's highly likely that Shannon Grove replaces him. If I'm correct she is an ally of his and might be his preferred successor. The timing of this retirement is interesting considering that the filing deadline is on Friday. If he does have someone he wanted to give a boost (whether it be Grove or another person) he most certainly timed this to allow them to lock other Republicans out of the field.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What does this bring them down to, a two seat majority? Bill Johnson is leaving soon too. We’re basically a heartbeat away from Speaker Jeffries.

Brian Higgins is leaving in Februrary and Bill Johnson will be leaving shortly before then. So for a brief moment, I suppose it could be razor thin.

[Chickpeas]

Is Kevin McCarthy going to sit for his official Speaker portrait before he leaves? 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Good riddance! I don't blame him for leaving though. It must be so humiliating being the shortest tenured House Speaker with some of the worst results and then becoming nothing more than a back-bencher afterwards.

[Sestak]

Am I right in thinking Connie Conway (who briefly served in Congress after Nunes resigned until redistricting) lives in this seat now?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Am I right in thinking Connie Conway (who briefly served in Congress after Nunes resigned until redistricting) lives in this seat now?

She’s 73

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good riddance! I don't blame him for leaving though. It must be so humiliating being the shortest tenured House Speaker with some of the worst results and then becoming nothing more than a back-bencher afterwards.

He was the third shortest tenured House Speaker.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Hoping David Giglio wins but I doubt it.

[Sir Mohamed]

So GOP's majority will be down to 3 votes.

Isn't it 3 right now without Santos? Wouldn't it be down to 2?

No, because a vacancy is less powerful than a vote for the other side.  Right now it's 221R, 213D, 1 vacant, so R's can afford to lose 3 defections in a vote (4 defections would result in a tied vote).  

With McCarthy leaving, it will be 220-213 and they could still lose 3 defections. If Santos is replaced by a Democrat (which is not a sure thing) and no other changes happen, they would then be at 220-214 and could lose only 2 defections.

According to Wikipedia, Brian Higgins (D-NY) and Bill Johnson (R-OH) are plan to resign in February and March, respectively. So we would be at 219-212. Should Suozzi win back his old seat, we'd be at 219-213. The other two specials will happen later I guess. The GOP will be at 220 again once this special election is called; I hope Newsom drags it out like RDS did in FL during the 117th congress.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#Changes_in_membership

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1734249676256497892

Fong is a former McCarthy staffer and a close ally.

[President Johnson]

Rest in peace young conservative guns. All of them fell victim to the Tea Party and MAGA cult.

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1734249676256497892
Fong is a former McCarthy staffer and a close ally.

I have had Fong replacing McCarthy for a couple years now, so this is going as I have foreseen it appears

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1734250419143254181

[Oryxslayer]

CA SOS says that Fong is ineligible to run for this seat because he's already locked in for his state house seat and filing has closed. Maybe he'll file a lawsuit because of the procedural confusion here, but until then I think it's Boudreauxs to lose.

[free my dawg]

lmao he even sounds like a bitch

[DrScholl]

Seems like it would be hard for a lawsuit to succeed since the law is clear. If his paperwork for Assembly cleared first then that's the only office he can run for. He's worked for members of Congress and been in elected office for years so he knows the rules very well.

[Octowakandi]

Mccarthy’s protege getting locked out of the special election for his seat because McCarthy waited so last minute to drop out summarizes McCarthy’s political career in a nutshell.

[Tekken_Guy]

Mccarthy’s protege getting locked out of the special election for his seat because McCarthy waited so last minute to drop out summarizes McCarthy’s political career in a nutshell.

I think it's more because of Shannon Grove widely being expected to run and not backing out until after filing has closed for Fong's assembly seat.