KY-SurveyUSA-Primary: Beshear and Fletcher leading

[Tender Branson]

Democratic Primary:

Beshear: 32%
Lunsford: 23%
Henry: 18%
Richard: 12%
Galbraith: 5%
Hensley: 1%
Undecided: 9%

Republican Primary:

Fletcher: 44%
Northup: 34%
Harper: 14%
Undecided: 8%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=13ebe78f-20b9-487d-947e-68b17ea51b12

[Hash]

Go Fletcher!

[Keystone Phil]

Thank you, KY GOP, for throwing away this race!

Not so sincerely,

A Republican amazed at how his party insists on making stupid decisions

[Gabu]

When's the primary for this?

[HardRCafé]

May 22.

[Gabu]

May 22.

Oh, coming right up, then.

I was under the impression that it was further off for whatever reason.

[Kevinstat]

I wasn't expecting Bruce Lunsford's numbers to tank as they did from the May 1 Survey USA poll.  Okay, losing 6% with margins of error of 4% and 3.8% respectively in the two polls isn't exactly tanking, but his drop was only 3% less than Steven Beshear's 9% gain after Jonathan Miller dropped out and endorsed him, which is causing me to reevaluate the chances of someone getting 40% or more of the vote and avoiding a runoff.  When I look back at the numbers from previous polls, it was never very likely and would have required the winner to finish 21% ahead of the runner-up as of the May 1 poll (25% now) even if the entire undecided vote and all of Miller's vote went to the Beshear or Lunsford.  Not that Lunsford is likely to receive any significant support from previous Miller backers, but I am talking about measuring how much of a lead a candidate would have to have over the nearest competition in order to avoid a runoff.

In the GOP primary that value looks somewhere between 2% and -6% based on the most recent poll, and about -5% if the Undecideds broke in proportion to the candidates' current levels of support, and that value (not the absolute value) is dropping.  In other words, a GOP runoff in Kentucky ain't happening.  Anne Northrup would have a better chance at winning the Republican primary herself without the need for a runoff.  Billy Harper's support just isn't large enough for both of the other two candidates to get under 40% of the vote, and it's unlikely that the trailing candidate and apparent potential "spoiler" would see his support rise significantly in the closing weeks of the campaign.

[Adlai Stevenson]

God knows why Republicans are still supporting Fletcher over Northup, but thank God they are!  This signals the end of both their political careers; Fletcher can win the Primary and be drubbed in the general election while Northup will be tagged as a two-times loser and can't run against John Yarmuth in 2008. 

[HardRCafé]

God knows why Republicans are still supporting Fletcher over Northup,

She's from Louisville.

[Hash]

Once again, on this primary day, I encourage all KY Republicans to support Fletcher!