When will we next get large swaths of 100% D/R precincts federally? Is it even possible?
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  When will we next get large swaths of 100% D/R precincts federally? Is it even possible?
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Author Topic: When will we next get large swaths of 100% D/R precincts federally? Is it even possible?  (Read 875 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: November 27, 2023, 11:52:18 PM »
« edited: November 28, 2023, 12:02:25 AM by ProgressiveModerate »



Above is a map of Chicago overlayed with 2008 election results. One insane fact is in the image above, the orange area contained over 300k people. It gave Obama 162,000 votes and McCain 0, yes 0 votes. The purple has a population of over 350k people and gave Obama 188,000 votes to McCain's 792.

This means in Chicago alone, there were precincts worth over 650k people that collectively gave Obama 99.7% of the vote, with McCain getting a mere 792 votes.

While it still boggles my mind today, this was contingent on Obama's record strong performance with black voters combined with his home state boost from Illinois.

Today or in the near future, would it be possible anywhere in the Country to get large swaths of 100% D/R precincts (think precincts totaling at least 100k in a given metro area or region)?

The closest I can think of might be some of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities in places like New Square that block vote, but those communities tend not to be very large and typically have a single-digit or double-digit number of defectors in each precinct.

Also no, races uncontested by a major part don't count. Nor do those >10 people precincts with 2 votes.
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mlee117379
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2023, 11:47:46 PM »

It might happen in the Cuban parts of South Florida if the environment is 2022 2.0 and the Republican nominee is from that community. Can’t think of any other possible examples.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2023, 12:01:23 AM »

100% is a very high bar to clear.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2023, 01:02:23 AM »

It might happen in the Cuban parts of South Florida if the environment is 2022 2.0 and the Republican nominee is from that community. Can’t think of any other possible examples.

I feel like it’s require more significant self-sorting in the south Florida Cuban population, with Cuban who are right wing sorting into their own communities. We see this a bit with Cubans in Hialeah being very conservative but not to the extreme required.

Also we do see a lot of moderate Cuban state legislators and while they outperform they’re never even getting close to 90% of the vote in a contested race.
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mlee117379
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2024, 12:22:22 AM »

It happened in Detroit in 2012:

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omar04
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2024, 09:03:25 PM »

Does anyone have a copy of the image in the OP post?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2024, 10:24:22 PM »

Does anyone have a copy of the image in the OP post?



Here ya go, but this one will probably expire at some point soon - I'm looking into other options for posting images that will last longer.
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omar04
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2024, 11:33:19 PM »

Does anyone have a copy of the image in the OP post?



Here ya go, but this one will probably expire at some point soon - I'm looking into other options for posting images that will last longer.

I would recommend postimages.
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Sol
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« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2024, 12:24:50 AM »

Here ya go, but this one will probably expire at some point soon - I'm looking into other options for posting images that will last longer.

Forum gallery works well
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2024, 03:10:22 AM »

Here ya go, but this one will probably expire at some point soon - I'm looking into other options for posting images that will last longer.

Forum gallery works well
This
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2024, 04:34:14 PM »

TBH the most likely scenario for this would involve state or federal courts turning a blind eye toward pretty obvious election rigging activities at the local level and/or allowing states/localities to adopt much stricter voting rules than are currently constitutional (e.g. if people had to own a certain amount of land to vote, many rural counties would likely be unanimous R).
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