Could Texas elect a Joe Manchin type Democrat

[Samof94]

Henry Cuellar is the figure I am thinking of, but there are other such figures. Could Texas elect such a figure in a Gov/Senator race(or even a downballot, but statewide position)?

[President Johnson]

I actually doubt, especially since such a candidate would bleed support from liberals and progressives. He'd lose more on that end than winning a few moderately conservative voters.

[DaleCooper]

I actually doubt, especially since such a candidate would bleed support from liberals and progressives. He'd lose more on that end than winning a few moderately conservative voters.

The American left is not what it was back in 2016 or even 2020 where they were suicidal and eager to let Republicans win as often as possible. Roe v Wade changed that and finally made these idiots realize that things actually can get worse for them. The Democratic candidate would have to be someone really bad (literally Liz Cheney or something) for a sizable number of left-of-center voters to roll over and let Republicans win.

[smoltchanov]

I doubt. First - there are very few Democratic officeholders of that type in the whole country, even less - in Texas. Second - yes, "bleeding on the left" is likely, though i fail to understand why: such candidate would be preferrable to, say, Cruz-type (or Trump-type) candidate by miles in 99+% of all possible situations. But "left" would rather lose with "their" candidate, then win with a moderate... Idiots....

[MT Treasurer]

Yes — people are overthinking this. Beto O'Rourke came within three points of unseating a Republican Senator in 2018, and while the state's shift to the left has been exaggerated, it’s clearly no longer solidly Republican in Democratic wave midterms, especially with coalition shifts making turnout patterns in off-years far more favorable to Democrats.

Someone like Cuellar could certainly win statewide against the "right" Republican in the next GOP president's midterm. Even Cornyn's seat could be on the table in the right environment.

[Vice President Christian Man]

At one time he would've, but nowadays the political orientation is too polarized as he'd do much more to alienate liberals than attract conservatives.

[MT Treasurer]

At one time he would've, but nowadays the political orientation is too polarized as he'd do much more to alienate liberals than attract conservatives.

"I’m absolutely dying to vote against the sociopathic fascist in the White House in this midterm election, but I won’t vote for this Henry Cuellar guy over Ken Paxton in this competitive high-profile race where my TX vote finally counts because he sounds slightly too moderate to my liking and used a rifle in his ads"

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The same progressives who are apparently going to bite their nose and turnout for Biden are going to stay home for a moderate Dem?

[PSOL]

Yes — people are overthinking this. Beto O'Rourke came within three points of unseating a Republican Senator in 2018, and while the state's shift to the left has been exaggerated, it’s clearly no longer solidly Republican in Democratic wave midterms, especially with coalition shifts making turnout patterns in off-years far more favorable to Democrats.

Someone like Cuellar could certainly win statewide against the "right" Republican in the next GOP president's midterm. Even Cornyn's seat could be on the table in the right environment.

Well thanks for pointing out that a candidate like Beto O' Rourke, a generic Texan democrat, can win in Texas.

Running a Joe Manchinite in Indiana didn't work, and one in Texas won't work as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes — people are overthinking this. Beto O'Rourke came within three points of unseating a Republican Senator in 2018, and while the state's shift to the left has been exaggerated, it’s clearly no longer solidly Republican in Democratic wave midterms, especially with coalition shifts making turnout patterns in off-years far more favorable to Democrats.

Someone like Cuellar could certainly win statewide against the "right" Republican in the next GOP president's midterm. Even Cornyn's seat could be on the table in the right environment.

Well thanks for pointing out that a candidate like Beto O' Rourke, a generic Texan democrat, can win in Texas.

Running a Joe Manchinite in Indiana didn't work, and one in Texas won't work as well.

You do realize that Joe Donnelly outperformed Clinton by 13 and Biden by 10 points, right?

I get that you’re blinded by your ideological beliefs, but please do not lose sight of the actual numbers.

Joe Manchin also won reelection in a Trump +42 state, so clearly he must have done something right.

[Alben Barkley]

I actually doubt, especially since such a candidate would bleed support from liberals and progressives. He'd lose more on that end than winning a few moderately conservative voters.

The American left is not what it was back in 2016 or even 2020 where they were suicidal and eager to let Republicans win as often as possible. Roe v Wade changed that and finally made these idiots realize that things actually can get worse for them. The Democratic candidate would have to be someone really bad (literally Liz Cheney or something) for a sizable number of left-of-center voters to roll over and let Republicans win.

I wish I shared your optimism.

[Xing]

It could elect a generic Democrat as well.

[Progressive Pessimist]

That would be a waste when they're inching closer to electing a mainstream one.

[DaleCooper]

I actually doubt, especially since such a candidate would bleed support from liberals and progressives. He'd lose more on that end than winning a few moderately conservative voters.

The American left is not what it was back in 2016 or even 2020 where they were suicidal and eager to let Republicans win as often as possible. Roe v Wade changed that and finally made these idiots realize that things actually can get worse for them. The Democratic candidate would have to be someone really bad (literally Liz Cheney or something) for a sizable number of left-of-center voters to roll over and let Republicans win.

I wish I shared your optimism.

I am not optimistic. The left is just clearly less vulnerable to suicidal third party crap than it was 4-8 years ago. I don't know if you followed the absolute brain rot cancer that was the progressive movement during that time, but they were literally celebrating Republicans beating people like Bill Nelson or Claire McCaskill because they were "no better than Republicans" and constantly accusing any Democratic candidate of being a neoliberal who didn't earn their vote if he didn't endorse specific Bernie Bro slogans like Medicare for All. That stuff has been declining for about four years now, and it really tanked hard after Dobbs. Leftwing people don't want Republicans to appoint anti-abortion judges or people that support "trans genocide" or other conservative agendas that they're worried about. It's the center and aimless swing voters who can't find the USA on a map that will go third party next year. 

[Alben Barkley]

I actually doubt, especially since such a candidate would bleed support from liberals and progressives. He'd lose more on that end than winning a few moderately conservative voters.

The American left is not what it was back in 2016 or even 2020 where they were suicidal and eager to let Republicans win as often as possible. Roe v Wade changed that and finally made these idiots realize that things actually can get worse for them. The Democratic candidate would have to be someone really bad (literally Liz Cheney or something) for a sizable number of left-of-center voters to roll over and let Republicans win.

I wish I shared your optimism.

I am not optimistic. The left is just clearly less vulnerable to suicidal third party crap than it was 4-8 years ago. I don't know if you followed the absolute brain rot cancer that was the progressive movement during that time, but they were literally celebrating Republicans beating people like Bill Nelson or Claire McCaskill because they were "no better than Republicans" and constantly accusing any Democratic candidate of being a neoliberal who didn't earn their vote if he didn't endorse specific Bernie Bro slogans like Medicare for All. That stuff has been declining for about four years now, and it really tanked hard after Dobbs. Leftwing people don't want Republicans to appoint anti-abortion judges or people that support "trans genocide" or other conservative agendas that they're worried about. It's the center and aimless swing voters who can't find the USA on a map that will go third party next year. 

No, I followed that stuff all too well. And I still see some of those same people claiming they'll vote Cornel West or even RFK Jr. or stay at home next year. I see little to no evidence whatsoever that these people have "come home" to the Democrats or are willing to "hold their noses" now for Biden. ESPECIALLY after the Israel conflict heated up, it's just gotten worse than it was back then if anything. I don't know what exactly you're seeing but it seems to directly conflict with what I'm seeing.

[Minnesota Mike]

If only the other party would run candidates more in line with the party I support they would be more successful.

Sure it's possible a conservadem could win in Texas but it's unlikely for the same reasons moderate Republicans don't often win there, candidates well out of the mainstream of their party rarely win primaries. Democrats in TX-28 are much more conservative than Democrats statewide but Henry Cuellar has barely survived primary challenges the last two cycles.

[MargieCat]

I don't think so.

Texas is not West Virginia.

Arizona elected a "Joe Manchin type Democrat" in Kyrsten Sinema and it hasn't been a success story.

Perhaps they can elect a Mark Kelly type Democrat, who is basically a mainstream Democrat that carries themselves as a moderate.

I think a blue dog type works well in an area that has trended away from Democrats, but maybe not so much in an ancestrally red area that has trended towards Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

If nothing else - such candidates (and their "mirrors" in Republican party) would return intrigue to US elections. Which are now as interesting as ... cactus in Mojave Desert (in fact - even less as there are different varieties of cactuses)  - almost all candidates have utterly predictable positions, and almost all elections are predictable too, as their results closely mirrors last presidenrial numbers. The only exception on high level i know now - Phil Scott, and when he retires - ... (no, even JBE is NOT a "conservative Democrat" in general, though he is a conservative on choice and few other selected issues). I mentioned many times, that i have on my booshelf the first edition of "The Almanac of American politics" (1971-1972). There was a time, when US politics was really interesting: you had not only Phil Byrton and Bella Abzug, but John Dowdy, Thomas Abernethy and Jim Eastland as Democratic candidates (whole political spectrum, and, btw, the Civil Rights issue was generally resolved by that time, so - almost no open racists), and looking on Republicans - not only James Utt, Paul Fannin and Barry Goldwater (who would pass for moderate now) - but Clifford Case, Jacob Javits and Charles Whalen too. You could get almost every pair of possible candidates in general election, including unheard now (like pro-choice Republican against pro-life Democrat). It's in that time i became seriously interested in US poliics. Now - no more: it's simply an old (50+ years) habit, with rare interesting "moments"....

[Reactionary Libertarian]

I doubt somebody like that could win a primary.

[Goofball McBalls]

Henry Cuellar is the figure I am thinking of, but there are other such figures. Could Texas elect such a figure in a Gov/Senator race(or even a downballot, but statewide position)?

Well, Cuellar was raided by the fbi so,

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They triaged TX already it's purely wave insurance as long as there aren't any polls showing Allred winning he is losing but never say never he can still win but get Kunce and Tester in are the Act blue priorities Brown is gonna win no DeWine

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Someone like Manchin (i.e. a ConservaDem trying desperately to out-Republican the Republicans) would underperform badly.  So would Cueller (a corrupt and scandal-ridden Congressman from the wrong part of the state who is out of touch with the Democratic mainstream in his state and thoroughly despised outside his base).  

I think anyone answering “yes” to OP’s question fundamentally misunderstands the current party coalitions in Texas, as well as what a Democratic path to statewide victory will look like when it next happens.  The rural areas are long gone; that early-to-mid 2000s ConservaDem “blame other Democrats first, second, and third” garbage isn’t what it’s about anymore and Manchin is the personification of that except that he’s also a corporate shill who lacks the populist streak some of these guys had.

As for the Rio Grande Valley, yes, you want to stop the bleeding.  However, we have two datapoints.  The 2020 cycle suggested a major trend.  The 2022 cycle suggested the bleeding here has more or less stopped.  Either way, the gains in the metros/suburbs easily more than wipe out any loses here in statewide races.  The bleeding here is more of a problem in congressional and state legislative races.  

The Democrats need a solid center-left, suburbia-friendly candidate who can make even bigger strides in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metro and turbo-charge Harris County Democratic turnout (which hasn’t been what it needs to be and is currently the single biggest obstacle to a statewide Democratic victory in Texas), and get the reliably massive Travis County turnout while making even greater inroads in places like Bell and Williamson counties.  

I think Lizzie Pennell Fletcher is currently the best candidate Democrats could run here, but she’s much better off waiting until 2030 to take on Ted Cruz.  As it stands, the 2024 Senate race is Lean R.  Allred is a strong recruit, but I don’t think he’s the right guy to crack the code in Texas and it may still be too early.

[wnwnwn]

A candidate moderate on energy and guns, but mainstream democrat out of that would be a better shot. Also, the caniddate should avoid being seen as out of touch and have clear stances for farmers, but that's not being a blue dog.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before it's very difficult for ALLRED to win but can he win certainly, TX is changing more demographic than FL, but it's upset potentially not a sure thing but it's better chance than MS and LA

[GAinDC]

Running a a conservadem in a red state with very liberal areas, like Texas, just doesn’t work.

They likely won’t make it past a primary, and if they do, they won’t get the turnout they need from progressives. And the conservatives will just vote Republican.

Democrats need to just keep investing in Texas until a mainstream Dem can win there.