When will Monmouth County, NJ flip to the Democrats?

[Tekken_Guy]

When will Monmouth County, NJ flip to the Democrats?

[TML]

It's not easy to say - this county does seem to have the right demographic ingredients for it to be D-leaning (especially the fact that nearly half of its adult population has higher education), but in recent election cycles it's the last few percentage points that have been elusive (my best guess is that the main thing sustaining its R-lean is its relatively limited urban development).

[Vice President Christian Man]

It could go in 2028 with the right conditions.

[Fwillb21]

It’s kind of hard to say. With a lot of people leaving New Jersey instead of moving to it, I’m not so sure if New Jersey is going to trend much more left at all. With Monmouth being a place where there’s not much more room for growth, I’m not sure if it’s a place that a lot of key Democratic voting constituencies will flock to. Maybe it could flip in 2028 or 2032 if Democrats nominate a moderate or someone who has strong appeal with suburban/exurban voters.

[Devils30]

It’s kind of hard to say. With a lot of people leaving New Jersey instead of moving to it, I’m not so sure if New Jersey is going to trend much more left at all. With Monmouth being a place where there’s not much more room for growth, I’m not sure if it’s a place that a lot of key Democratic voting constituencies will flock to. Maybe it could flip in 2028 or 2032 if Democrats nominate a moderate or someone who has strong appeal with suburban/exurban voters.

Monmouth has not trended either way since 2004 when Bush got a 9/11 boost. I would bet on Hunterdon flipping ahead of it in 2024, more college educated and just seems like the prototypical Dem trending ancestrally GOP exurb. Dems could win it with a moderate or lose it by 15 with Harris in 2028 for all we know.

Dems are starting to bleed voters from their base in New Jersey. If you (as a household) make 150-225K you cannot afford to buy any housing beyond dumpy properties and on that salary there are plenty of opportunities in Atlanta, Raleigh, Charlotte, Tampa to live well and own a decent home. In NJ the middle class is declining.

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

Just moved here a year ago.

Republicans took the registration lead in 2021 here and there are a lot of Staten Island and SW Brooklyn transplants that lean R. The blue-collar Bayshore area has also shifted right like similar areas across the country. However, there has been evidence of some Dem strength in more upscale towns and the landslide of Democratic State Sen Vin Gopal who represents one-third of the county cannot be overlooked.

It is very suburban and very well-run (county government has been all-R since 2010). It is not tailormade for Trump but it is better for him than somewhere like Morris. It also voted for Clinton in '96 and even Gore. The fact that it came back means it never really joined the counties across the country that realigned. I think we stay R but Josh Shapiro vs JD Vance here would be the kind of matchup that it would flip during. At this point I expect a Trump win here and it would be a Haley blowout.

[Schiff for Senate]

It’s kind of hard to say. With a lot of people leaving New Jersey instead of moving to it, I’m not so sure if New Jersey is going to trend much more left at all. With Monmouth being a place where there’s not much more room for growth, I’m not sure if it’s a place that a lot of key Democratic voting constituencies will flock to. Maybe it could flip in 2028 or 2032 if Democrats nominate a moderate or someone who has strong appeal with suburban/exurban voters.

Monmouth has not trended either way since 2004 when Bush got a 9/11 boost. I would bet on Hunterdon flipping ahead of it in 2024, more college educated and just seems like the prototypical Dem trending ancestrally GOP exurb. Dems could win it with a moderate or lose it by 15 with Harris in 2028 for all we know.

Dems are starting to bleed voters from their base in New Jersey. If you (as a household) make 150-225K you cannot afford to buy any housing beyond dumpy properties and on that salary there are plenty of opportunities in Atlanta, Raleigh, Charlotte, Tampa to live well and own a decent home. In NJ the middle class is declining.

True, but employment opportunities offering that same pay may not exist as readily in said cities. Unless, of course, we're talking about a work-from-home kind of deal (it's becoming increasingly common post COVID, after all). But my point is, in places like NJ/NYC/CA, housing is much more expensive precisely because there are so many high-income earners and because the jobs in these places pay more.