Finland 2024 presidential election

[Mike88]

First early votes returns:

52.7% Stubb
47.3% Haavisto

[Mike88]

Election day votes are starting to come in:

52% Stubb
48% Haavisto

No changes in the overall picture, 52.7-47.3%

[Helsinkian]

82 percent counted and very little change; Stubb will win.

[mubar]

Looking at some fully counted smaller municipalities, Haavisto does much better in election day voting, getting about 4 or 5% better vote share than in early voting. That should tighten the results but appears not to be enough to get past Stubb, as most voters had voted early.

[Mike88]

YLE forecast:

51.4% Stubb
48.6% Haavisto

If I'm not wrong, this would be the closest result ever in a Presidential election in Finland.

[Helsinkian]

100% counted:

Stubb 51.6%
Haavisto 48.4%

Stubb will be inaugurated on 1 March.

[crals]

One deciding factor seems to be that one third of Stubb voters say they vote for him at least partly because of Haavisto's homosexuality. That's actually very similar to the share of those who named it as a reason to vote for Niinistö over Haavisto in 2012. So based on that, not much has changed with more conservative Finnish population in 12 years, even though we now have legal same-sex marriage (the law was actually approved in 2014 when Stubb was prime minister).

That's very depressing, especially considering how close the result was.

[President Johnson]

Fair outcome it seems, and both candidates were pro-EU and pro-NATO. That's the good news here.

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/Gust_2319/status/1756784088030060550

[Flyersfan232]

why did haaistvo do so well with finns party voters?

[Helsinkian]

why did haaistvo do so well with finns party voters?

I don't know if he did or whether many just abstained (and almost all municipalities where Halla-aho topped the first round went for Stubb, and by a large margin in the Vaasa electoral district), but many Finns Party voters do see Stubb as "smug" and remember his past support for eurofederalism. One Finns Party MP even endorsed Haavisto after the first round, though he had to walk that back after he received backlash and then said that he would abstain instead.

[DL]

Why does Stubb do so well in that rural west central area?

[Helsinkian]

Why does Stubb do so well in that rural west central area?

It is a conservative and quite religious area. It has always been the worst region for Greens, and Haavisto being gay probably had some impact as well. Stubb's best result (81%) was in the Swedish-speaking municipality of Larsmo, which is also a bastion of the Christian Democrats (Essayah got 20% on the first round there). This also happened to be the municipality with the highest turnout on both rounds.

The Swedish-speaking coast of the Vaasa electoral district was already heavily for Stubb in the first round, while the Finnish-speaking interior of the district was for Halla-aho (along with Rehn municipalities further up north where the Laestadians always vote for Centre). On the second round both were strongly for Stubb.

[DL]

I thought the Swedish speaking minority was very small l liberal. Certainly the Swedish Peoples Party quite progressive

[Helsinkian]

I thought the Swedish speaking minority was very small l liberal. Certainly the Swedish Peoples Party quite progressive

There are differences between SPP voters in Southern Finland and in Ostrobothnia. This was apparent in the intra-party discussion on going into coalition with the Finns Party last year: the Ostrobothnians were more willing than the southerners. But in any case, the SPP's purpose is to be primarily a language rights party, and hence a socially conservative Swedish-speaker is still likely to vote for them even if they don't agree on everything.

Of course, Alexander Stubb is himself no conservative. But he did win with the votes of conservatives.

[Ethelberth]

Stubb is Swedish speaking liberal, whose family stems from Swedish Ostrobotnia (although they have lived in South for a century). 

[mubar]

why did haaistvo do so well with finns party voters?

Can't say I understand Finns party voters, but a few points that could apply here:

- Haavisto was a genuinely good candidate for president, with a long experience in foreign politics, diplomatic background and with a good reputation, in particular not being seen as extremist to any direction. His image is also fairly middle-class and down-to-earth, something that typical Finnish voters (Finns party or not) tend to appreciate. Another point is that despite Haavisto's career in diplomacy, he's lived and worked in Finland and done a lot of visits to the regions, which is an advantage because lots of voters have actually met him personally at some point

- Stubb was by no means an ideal candidate for conservative or traditionalist rural voters. Finns party rhetoric in particular is anti-elitist and Stubb tends to give an elitist impression, being from affluent background (not to mention a Swedish-speaker), living in the richest neighborhood of the whole Finland (Espoo's Westend), having made career in international institutions and living abroad in the past, not to mention being an outspoken supporter of liberal causes such as same-sex marriage which was legalized during his time as prime minister. While at the same time his tendency to appear as a sporty triathlonist and take interviews wearing shorts in the past had apparently also annoyed some voters

- Finns party still has its share of euroskeptics and anti-NATO feelings; as mentioned Stubb is eurofederalist and was pro-NATO already 15 years ago when it was quite unpopular in polls. This was definitely enough for some to be enough against Stubb that they preferred Haavisto

- Campaigns matter. Finns party potential supporters tend to be low-information (they don't follow politics much and have less knowledge about current issues) and volatile, which can be seen from the recurring pattern where PS party or candidate support is under 10% in polls conducted a few months before election, yet grows steadily to reach nearly 20% by election day, as these potential voters gradually get exposed to the campaign. So in the second round of presidential election, having lost their own candidate, these voters may stay home but they may also be persuaded to vote for one of the remaining candidates because of a variety of reasons that may not always align with party ideology. Again, Haavisto's campaign was effective to challenge Stubb on matters about foreign policy and other more or less relevant things, and again as before, the fact that Haavisto visited all parts of Finland helped to make a personal contact to a lot of voters

That's just a few things that seemed to have played out quite well, just not enough to win.

[DL]

I thought the Swedish speaking minority was very small l liberal. Certainly the Swedish Peoples Party quite progressive

There are differences between SPP voters in Southern Finland and in Ostrobothnia. This was apparent in the intra-party discussion on going into coalition with the Finns Party last year: the Ostrobothnians were more willing than the southerners. But in any case, the SPP's purpose is to be primarily a language rights party, and hence a socially conservative Swedish-speaker is still likely to vote for them even if they don't agree on everything.

Of course, Alexander Stubb is himself no conservative. But he did win with the votes of conservatives.

Sounds kinda like how English Quebecers vote en masse for the Quebec Liberal Party no matter where they are on the political spectrum...

[Germany1994]

I have a question about the political geography of Helsinki. Which neighbourhoods are generally considered to be working-class/alternative/burgeois??

[Helsinkian]

I have a question about the political geography of Helsinki. Which neigbhourhoods are generally considered to be working-class/alternative/burgeois??

Bourgeois: the southern (downtown is the south-western cape) and western (especially Töölö, Munkkiniemi, the island of Lauttasaari) parts; elsewhere, the islands of Laajasalo and Kulosaari, along with a few northern areas (like Paloheinä and surroundings) where detached houses are more common.

Alternative: that would definitely be the area of greater Kallio, which in the precinct map corresponds to Kallio, Linjat, Sörnäinen, Alppila, Vallila and the immediate surroundings. This used to be a typically working-class area, but it is now associated with various counter-cultures.

Working-class: broadly, the eastern and north-eastern parts of the city (plus Kannelmäki and Malminkartano in the north-west). This doesn't include the large and sparsely inhabited easternmost precinct (Östersundom), since that was merged to Helsinki only a couple of decades ago, and detached housing still dominates there.

The results from last year's parliamentary election show the trends more clearly (the dark red Left Alliance region would be your 'alternative' neigbourhoods): https://vaalit.yle.fi/ev2023/tulospalvelu/fi/municipalities/91/

[Germany1994]

I have a question about the political geography of Helsinki. Which neigbhourhoods are generally considered to be working-class/alternative/burgeois??

Bourgeois: the southern (downtown is the south-western cape) and western (especially Töölö, Munkkiniemi, the island of Lauttasaari) parts; elsewhere, the islands of Laajasalo and Kulosaari, along with a few northern areas (like Paloheinä and surroundings) where detached houses are more common.

Alternative: that would definitely be the area of greater Kallio, which in the precinct map corresponds to Kallio, Linjat, Sörnäinen, Alppila, Vallila and the immediate surroundings. This used to be a typically working-class area, but it is now associated with various counter-cultures.

Working-class: broadly, the eastern and north-eastern parts of the city (plus Kannelmäki and Malminkartano in the north-west). This doesn't include the large and sparsely inhabited easternmost precinct (Östersundom), since that was merged to Helsinki only a couple of decades ago, and detached housing still dominates there.

The results from last year's parliamentary election show the trends more clearly (the dark red Left Alliance region would be your 'alternative' neigbourhoods): https://vaalit.yle.fi/ev2023/tulospalvelu/fi/municipalities/91/

Thanks for the detailed insight. I guess the Finns Party is also stronger in the more working-class areas, right??

[Helsinkian]

Thanks for the detailed insight. I guess the Finns Party is also stronger in the more working-class areas, right??

Yes, the only Helsinki precinct they won in 2023 was in the north-eastern Jakomäki, which is probably the poorest neighbourhood of Helsinki.